The 2018 Arctic Sea Ice Metric Minima

September 2, 2018ExtentAMSR2, Andrew Slater, Area, Concentration, Extent, Hamburg Uni, NSIDC, PIOMAS, SMOS, Volume, WipneusJim Hunt

September is upon us once again, the month in which the assorted Arctic sea ice area and extent metrics (almost) always reach their respective annual minima. Now we are free to start speculating about what the assorted minima will be, and on what date.

To begin with let’s take a look at our much beloved high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 concentration data:

There’s currently some divergence between the area and extent graphs. Area is declining rapidly for the time of year, whilst extent seems to almost have come to a standstill!

Next here’s the prediction of the late, great Andrew Slater’s Probabilistic Ice Extent algorithm:

Before looking at some of the other metrics we’ll wait for the effect of the assorted storms currently circling the Arctic to play out. Here’s how the AMSR2 concentration map looks at the moment:

whilst here’s the University of Bremen’s summer SMOS sea ice “thinness” map:

[Edit – September 3rd]

UH AMSR2 area and extent both increased yesterday, so we have a (very!) provisional minimum extent of 4.35 million square kilometres on September 1st.

[Edit – September 4th]

Area and extent have both increased again:

Is the minimum already in, or will the storms still circulating around the Arctic Ocean reverse that trend over the next few days?

[Edit – September 6th]

High resolution area and extent both posted marginal new lows for the year yesterday:

[Edit – September 29th]

According to the latest edition of the NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice News:

On September 19 and 23, Arctic sea ice appeared to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for the year, at 4.59 million square kilometers (1.77 million square miles). This ties 2018 with 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest minimum extent in the nearly 40-year satellite record.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

The NSIDC numbers are based on a 5 day average, whereas the one day high resolution AMSR2 extent reached a minimum of 4.195 million square kilometers on September 17th:

The AMSR2 area minimum occurred significantly earlier. 3.737 million square kilometers on September 9th:

The Great Arctic Cyclone of 2018?

August 27, 2018WavesBarents Sea, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, Cyclone, ESS, Fram Strait, GAC2018, Greenland Sea, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, Waves, WaveWatchJim Hunt

Our title for today refers back to the Great Arctic Cyclone of August 2012. There has been some speculation over on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog about whether a similar event is about to occur this year.

It’s later in the season of course, but as is our wont we always look at the waves first. Here is the current WaveWatch III forecast for the evening of August 31st UTC:

In summary the forecast shows some very large waves with a substantial period for inside the Arctic Circle directed straight at the ice edge. Let’s follow the forecast over the next few days carefully shall we?

[Edit – August 30th]

The latest wave forecast for tomorrow evening isn’t as extreme as 3 days ago. Note the change in the significant height scale:

Nonetheless the height and period are still very significant!

[Edit – August 31st]

Here’s the latest forecast for 6 PM this evening (UTC):

Note how the open water across almost the entire map is full of what in the Arctic counts as a long period swell. That means that the forecast for 2 days later looks like this:

Less height but with a longer period. All of which means that the sea ice north of the Atlantic Ocean isn’t about to receive a short sharp shock. It has a sustained battering lasting several days to look forward to.

[Edit – September 1st]

The barrage of assorted swells has begun. Here’s the “hindcast” from midnight last night UTC:

Now lets take a look at tomorrow’s forecast for the Laptev Sea. This is for 09:00 UTC:

Note once again the change of scale on the wave/swell height map. Nevertheless a 3+ meter swell heading over into the East Siberian Sea isn’t something you see every day.

Now were into September the 2018 annual minimum extent can’t be too far away. Extent decline appears to have stalled. However “high res” AMSR2 area is currently falling fast, for the time of year at least:

[Edit – September 2nd]

Here are the swell and period forecasts at midnight for round about now, 09:00 UTC:

All the seas between Greenland and the New Siberian Islands are awash with swells with a period of 8 second or greater. This is most unusual, to put it mildly!

[Edit – September 3rd]

Here’s the WaveWatch III “hindcast” from midnight last night UTC for the Russian side of the Arctic Ocean:

There are still significant swells almost everywhere you look.

[Edit – September 4th]

Using the same scales as yesterday, here’s today’s hindcast from midnight:

There’s still plenty of action in the Arctic Ocean!

[Edit – September 5th]

Feel free to debate whether it merits the “Great” prefix, but this is how the early September 2018 Arctic cyclone has panned out. According to this morning’s Environment Canada synopsis the cyclone is centred near the coast of the Laptev Sea and is down to a MSLP of 977 hPa:

Here’s another WaveWatch III hindcast from midnight UTC:

[Edit – September 6th]

Need I say more?

[Edit – September 7th]

The swell in the Fram Strait an Barents Sea is diminishing, but the period in the Laptev Sea is increasing now:

[Edit – September 8th]

All the wave activity in the Laptev Sea is diminishing. Here’s the hindcast from midnight:

Meanwhile things are warming up in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas. Here’s the forecast for midnight tonight:

[Edit – September 9th]

Here’s the hindcast for this morning’s swell in the Beaufort Sea:

This is currently a long way into the future and hence may not verify in practice. However any pulse of swell is currently forecast for September 13th:

The Northern Sea Route in 2018

August 24, 2018ExpeditionsArctic Institute, Bremen, East Siberian Sea, Hapag Lloyd, Maersk, Malte Humpert, Nakhodka, New Siberian Islands, NSR, Venta Maersk, Wrangel IslandJim Hunt

Our usual excuse for an article such as this is an attempt by a “pleasure craft” such as the plucky little yacht Northabout to journey past Russia’s northern shores. I’m not aware of any such plans for this year, but here is some interesting NSR 2018 news. According to Reuters:

A Maersk vessel loaded with Russian fish and South Korean electronics will next week become the first container ship to navigate an Arctic sea route that Russia hopes will become a new shipping highway.

The Arctic voyage by the 3,600 20-foot container capacity Venta Maersk is the latest step in the expansion of the so-called Northern Sea Route which is becoming more accessible to ships as climate change reduces the amount of sea ice.

The brand new Venta Maersk, one of the world’s largest ice-class vessels, will also collect scientific data, said Maersk, underlining that the voyage is a one-off trial for now.

The press release continues:

The decision by Maersk, the world’s biggest container shipping group, to test out the route is a positive sign for Russia, which hopes this could become a mini Suez Canal, cutting sea transport times from Asia to Europe.

“A well-respected company like Maersk sending a container ship through the Arctic, definitely signals there’s something there,” Malte Humpert, a senior fellow at U.S.-based think-tank Arctic Institute, said.

“Currently, we do not see the Northern Sea Route as an alternative to our usual routes. Today, the passage is only feasible for around three months a year which may change with time,” a spokeswoman for Maersk said.

Here’s the sea ice situation that the Venta Maersk is heading for:

According to AMSR2 there’s still some sea ice quite close to shore in the East Siberian Sea. Meanwhile according to Marine Traffic the Venta Maersk has already left Vladivostok:

It will be a little while before she’s braving the dangers of the sea ice in the East Siberian Sea. Hopefully by that time we’ll have some clear satellite images at visual frequencies of anything solid in the path of all those containers. In the meantime here’s a glimpse through the clouds of the approximate ice edge on August 23rd:

Meanwhile the Hapag Lloyd cruise ship Bremen is currently en route from Tromso to Nome via the Northern Sea Route. She is currently crossing the Laptev Sea heading for the ESS “choke point” from the opposite direction:

Could Northabout Circumnavigate Greenland in 2018?

August 20, 2018GreenlandASIF, AWI, DMI, Greenland, Guardian, Jonathan Watts, Kap Morris Jesup, Laptev Sea, Last Ice Area, Lincoln Sea, Northabout, Polarstern, Ruth Mottram, SAR, Sentinel, SMOS, Ward Hunt Ice ShelfJim Hunt

Our regular reader(s) may recall our extended coverage on the plucky little yacht Northabout‘s ultimately successful attempt to circumnavigate the Arctic Ocean in the summer of 2016?

Many were the skeptics who said she stood no chance of finding a way through some “thick sea ice” apparently blocking her path across the Laptev Sea, but they were proved wrong:

As a thought experiment in the summer of 2018 we’re now thinking the unthinkable. If she put her mind to it could Northabout circumnavigate Greenland in 2018? Let’s take a look at the evidence shall we? The allegedly “oldest, thickest Arctic sea ice” north of Greenland isn’t there any more this summer:

The research icebreaker Polarstern has already inspected the open waters off Kap Morris Jesup, the most northerly tip of Greenland:

What’s more the waters of the Lincoln Sea currently look no more tricky to traverse than the Laptev Sea in August 2016:

In conclusion, for the moment at least, what’s the theoretical solution to our 2018 thought experiment?

Here’s another thought to ponder as well. I don’t suppose it’s in the Alfred Wegener Institute’s PS115 mission plan, but do you suppose Polarstern could circumnavigate Greenland at the moment?

[Edit – August 23rd]

The University of Bremen used not to publish their Arctic sea ice “thinness” maps in summer. However now they do, so here’s a close up of Northern Greenland for August 22nd:

[Edit – August 26th]

First of all here’s one of our occasional sea ice motion videos:

This one reveals the open water north of Greenland in February as well as the much longer event in August. Next here’s a Sentinel 1B synthetic aperture radar image of the Kap Morris Jesup area from yesterday:

Meanwhile thanks to a heads up from Treform2 on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum comes evidence that on the other side of the Lincoln Sea the last remnants of the Ward Hunt Ice Shelf are “disintegrating”:

The Northwest Passage in 2018

August 19, 2018ExpeditionsAmundsen, Beaufort Sea, Bellot Strait, CAA, Cambridge Bay, Crystal, Dogbark, Franklin Strait, Gjoa Haven, Mikkelsen Bay, NWP, NWS, Prudhoe Bay, Thor, TuktoyaktukJim Hunt

The time has come to start speculating about if, and when, the Northwest Passage will become navigable for the host of small vessels eager to traverse it this summer. Almost one month later than in 2017!

Whilst the eastern and western entrances to the assorted routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelaga have been empty of sea ice for quite some time, the central section between Bellot Strait and Gjoa Haven and/or Cambridge Bay is still chock a block:

In the east here is a drone’s eye view of Cumming Inlet, courtesy of the Polish team of Michał and Ola Palczyński aboard S/V Crystal:

It’s not entirely clear when that picture was taken, since according to Michał’s blog:

The waters beyond the Bellot Strait are covered with impassable ice, and the ice in the Beaufort Sea has 90% concentration in some places and reaches up to the shore. In this difficult situation, by 15th August two yachts have already given up and turned back to Greenland (including Blue Peter from our cove).

Here’s what lies ahead of Crystal and her remaining companions, according to the Canadian Ice Service:

Meanwhile in the Beaufort Sea S/V Dogbark has been battling her way through that “90% concentration” sea ice. Dogbark has now made it as far as Mikkelsen Bay, just past Prudhoe Bay in Alaska:

Here is the United States’ National Weather Service map of sea ice concentration in the area:

According to a recent Q&A session on the Dogbark blog:

What does 7/10ths ice mean? We don’t want to know! It is more ice than we want to try and pass, that’s for sure. But the ice charts we look at refer to ice by % of sea coverage, so 7/10ths would look like water mostly covered by large, immovable objects. 5/10ths was as much as we have seen, and we got out of there as fast as we could with some help from our flying eyeball. See Dogbark’s Facebook page for a quick snippet of less dangerous ice.

Meanwhile the Canadian icebreaker CCGS Amundsen has sailed past Arctic Bay and Resolute:

I cannot help but wonder what vessels might be closely following in his wake?

[Edit – September 7th]

Finally there comes news that a “pleasure craft” has made it through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from east to west as far as Tuktoyaktuk. I’d been wondering which vessel it was that seemed immobile near the western end of the Bellot Strait on the MarineTraffic maps. This one’s from August 19th:

Now I know! Thanks to a heads up on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum I’ve discovered that it’s the S/V Thor. Here’s the tracking map of his efforts to get through all the old ice in the vicinty.

The map reveals that Thor made it through the Bellot Strait on August 6th, but didn’t manage to make significant headway out of the Franklin Strait until August 28th.

Thor departed from Tuk earlier today:

He now only has this to contend with:

USS Skate at the North Pole – Truth and Fantasy Fiction

August 16, 2018HistoryDavid Middleton, Hubert Wilkins, James Calvert, LIFE, National Geographic, Polynya, Tony Heller, USS Skate, WUWTJim Hunt

Tony Heller (AKA “Steve Goddard”) is regurgitating submarine balderdash for the umpteenth time.

Under the headline “No Change In Arctic Sea Ice Over The Past 60 Years” Tony asserts:

Sixty years ago this week, the USS Skate surfaced at the North Pole. Arctic sea ice was two meters thick.

using these images as “evidence”:

Please note that according to the July 1959 issue of National Geographic magazine:

The winter sun still hid below the horizon last March 17 when USS Skate crunched up through the ice at 90° N – first ship in history ever to surface at the Pole.

Note also that when USS Skate surfaced at the North Pole on March 17th 1959 she was alone. There was no polynya to be seen, let alone a second submarine in one.

What do you suppose the odds are that Tony’s “No Change In Arctic Sea Ice Over The Past 60 Years” assertion is equally aberrant?

[Edit – August 18th]

A reader on Twitter, apparently a fan of Mr. Heller asks:

So, is there any change in Article sea Ice over the last 60 yrs, which was the title of the post?

— Jim Fisher (@JimFish56837379) August 18, 2018

Of course there is! According to Commander James Calvert in the May 1959 edition of LIFE magazine:

On March 17 we arrived in the vicinity of the geographic North Pole. We had a job we very much wanted to do here, but as we cruised back and forth in the darkness below the Pole it seemed doubtful that we would be able to perform the last service requested by Sir Hubert Wilkins. No frozen leads or polynyas appeared. For a time I thought it would be necessary to conduct the service while submerged and discharge the ashes from one of the torpedo tubes as we passed under the pole.

Then suddenly we spotted the faint light of a small lead and we started up. This was our toughest surfacing so far. The quarters were cramped and we had to take special care not to hit Skate’s delicate rudder against the walls of ice. It took us two hours of careful maneuvering before Skate’s sail buckled the ice at the precise top of the world.

Climbing to the bridge I was greeted by an awesome sight. Skate was in a small lead completely surrounded by 10-foot-high hummocks of ice. This was the most inhospitable terrain we had seen so far.

[Edit – October 18th 2019]

The Skate and Seadragon surfacing at the North Pole meme has just been resurrected by David Middleton at “Watts Up With That”. He asserts that:

The North Pole may not have been totally ice free in 1962, but there clearly was a lot of open water…

quoting the United States Navy:

USS SKATE (SSN 578), CDR Joseph L. Skoog (Dr. W.K. Lyon and Richard Boyle), and USS SEADRAGON (SSN 584), CDR Charles D. Summitt, (Walter Wittman) conducted the first rendezvous of 2 ships at the North Pole.

Unfortunately for Mr. Middleton, Commander Summitt wrote a book about his experiences, the relevant section of which reads as follows:

When we were a couple of miles from the pole, we started watching for a large enough polynya to hold both of us. However, we reached the pole without either of us having any luck.

Quod erat demonstrandum?

Oden Reaches the North Pole All Too Easily Once Again

August 16, 2018ExpeditionsBBC, Helen Czerski, North Pole, OdenJim Hunt

Our regular reader(s) may recall our extensive coverage of the Swedish icebreaker Oden’s visit to the North Pole (AKA Santa’s secret summer swimming pool) in 2016?

We are now able to report that Oden has been back at the North Pole once again, this time somewhat earlier in the season:

There’s not as much open water to be seen this year, although Oden’s visit is a week earlier than in 2016 so that may not be too surprising? What is perhaps surprising is that this year visiting the Pole wasn’t part of Oden’s plan! According to British physicist and oceanographer (and BBC TV star!) Helen Czerski:

We weren't really aiming for the pole, just to find a good ice floe as far north as possible. But we haven't found an ice floe yet and it looks as though I'll wake up tomorrow morning at the North Pole. Hello to the top of the world! #ArcticOcean2018 pic.twitter.com/fDPnua4V6N

— Helen Czerski (@helenczerski) August 11, 2018

Here’s Helen and friends pictured at the North Pole:

That was a couple of days ago, since when the sea ice floe Oden is attached to has drifted in the direction of the Atlantic Ocean:

We have asked Helen whether she is willing and able to provide our readers with an update on here recent experiences on the Oden:

Hi @helenczerski. We met at @UniofExeter many moons ago, if you recall?@GreatWhiteCon and I were wondering if you would like to pen a guest article for "her" #Arctic #SeaIce blog?https://t.co/6RjRWlPjLM pic.twitter.com/30mOvXXH6t

— Jim Hunt (@jim_hunt) August 16, 2018

We’ll let you know her reply as and when we receive it!

Facts About the Arctic in April 2018

April 3, 2018VolumeCryoSat-2, Extent, JAXA, NSIDC, PIOMAS, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

First of all Wipneus has been very quick off the mark this month with his PIOMAS gridded thickness map. Here is what it reveals for the last day of March:

Here too is the latest PIOMAS volume graph:

together with the associated anomaly graph:

They show 2018 still in second lowest position, albeit much closer to third place than last year’s line, which is currently leading the pack by a considerable margin.

By way of comparison here are the current Arctic sea ice thickness maps from SMOS:

and CryoSat-2:

All eyes are still on the Bering and Chukchi Seas, where significant extent declines look likely over the coming days.

[Edit – April 4th]

The official PIOMAS graph including March 2018 is now available:

Meanwhile, according to NIPR/JAXA, Arctic sea ice extent is once again lowest for the date since their records began:

[Edit – April 6th]

The NSIDC 5 day averaged extent is now in “lowest in our records” territory:

Meanwhile “JAXA” extent has just edged above 2016!

[Edit – April 11th]

The focus has been on the Bering and Chukchi Seas until now. However there were clear skies over the Mackenzie Delta yesterday, revealing some open(ish) areas in the Beaufort Sea:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on April 10th 2018, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

There’s only the merest hint of a blip on the area graph so far though:

It will be interesting to see if the decline in Beaufort Sea area continues from here, or whether this year’s “flatline” resumes and continues for a while longer.

[Edit – April 19th]

It’s not so apparent on the other extent metrics, but as the periphery melts the high resolution AMSR2 version looks to be heading into virgin territory on the downside:

HMS Trenchant Surfaces at Ice Camp Skate for ICEX 2018

April 2, 2018ThicknessBeaufort Sea, HMS Trenchant, ICEX 2018, USS Connecticut, USS Hartford, USS SkateJim Hunt

In certain quarters it is being claimed in slightly strange English that:

The British Navy takes part in ICEX exercises that take place every two years and last for several weeks. Royal Navy submarine HMS Trenchant broke through the Arctic ice about seven days ago to join two US submarines for the exercise. At the same time, US submarines Hartford and Connecticut were stuck in the Arctic ice as they were training an attack on Russia. According to the legend of the exercises, the US submarines were supposed to surface and strike conditional targets in Russia, but the thick ice prevented them from fulfilling the scenario of the exercise.

However according to Her Majesty’s Royal Navy web site:

Royal Navy submarine HMS Trenchant has broken through the metre-thick ice of the Arctic Ocean to join two US boats on major exercise.

Ice Exercise 18 (ICEX) is a series of demanding trials in the frigid climate of the Arctic Circle, designed to test submariners’ skills in operating under the Arctic ice cap.

HMS Trenchant joins US submarines USS Connecticut and USS Hartford for the drills, co-ordinated by the US Navy’s Arctic Submarine Laboratory.

This combined team of military staff and scientists run the testing schedule from an ice camp established on an ice floe in the Arctic Ocean, north of Alaska.

Here is a video recording of HMS Trenchant getting “stuck in the Arctic ice”:

https://youtu.be/3EF3_plp8NQ

Here are some US Navy videos that reveal exactly how USS Connecticut and USS Hartford also became “stuck in the Arctic ice”:

According to a United States’ Department of Defense article on Ice Camp Skate:

Ice Camp Skate is a temporary ice camp that was established on a sheet of ice in the Arctic Ocean, known as an ice floe. Skate will serve as a temporary command center for conducting submarine operations, including under-ice navigation and torpedo exercises. The camp consists of shelters, a command center, and infrastructure to safely house and support more than 50 personnel at any one time.

The camp gets its namesake from USS Skate, the first submarine to surface through open water surrounded by ice in 1958, and the first submarine to surface through the Arctic ice at the North Pole in March 1959. Since the success of Skate’s surfacing, Arctic operations have been a crucial part of the missions conducted by nuclear submarines.

For more than 70 years, submarines have conducted under-ice operations in the Arctic regions in support of interfleet transit, training, cooperative allied engagements and routine operations.

The U.S. submarine force has completed more than 27 Arctic exercises.

[Edit – April 10th]

NASA’s Operation IceBridge have released some images of the now abandoned ICEX 2018 site on their Facebook page. They include a damaged and apparently abandoned Twin Otter aircraft:

The 2018 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

March 25, 2018ExtentAMSR2, Barents Sea, Bering Sea, Bremen Uni, CryoSat-2, Extent, Hamburg Uni, JAXA, NIPR, NSIDC, Sea Of Okhotsk, SMOS, WipneusJim Hunt

According to the latest edition of the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s “Arctic Sea Ice News”

On March 17, 2018, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.48 million square kilometers (5.59 million square miles), the second lowest in the 39-year satellite record, falling just behind 2017. This year’s maximum extent is 1.16 million square kilometers (448,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.64 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles).

The four lowest seasonal maxima have all occurred during the last four years. The 2018 maximum is 60,000 square kilometers (23,200 square miles) above the record low maximum that occurred on March 7, 2017.

Here’s a close up view of recent maxima via the NSIDC’s Charctic interactive sea ice graph:

Next let’s take a look at extent data from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research, colloquially referred to as “JAXA extent”

In this case the maximum was 13.89 million square kilometers, also on March 17th.

Here too are the extent and area graphs based on Wipneus’ processing of the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 based concentration data:

They highlight the surge in Arctic sea ice area in the middle of March due to the sudden “cold snap”:

Looking at the third Arctic dimension, here’s the latest SMOS thickness map from the University of Bremen:

and here’s the latest CryoSat-2 thickness map:

They reveal large areas of relatively thin sea ice in the Okhotsk and Barents Seas where the ice can now be expected to melt as quickly as it formed. There is also remarkably little sea ice in the Bering Sea for the time of year:

The Great White Con

Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight