Facts About the Arctic in September 2023

September 1, 2023NewsCMC, Cyclone, Extent, JAXA, MSLP, NSIDC, SIPNJim Hunt

There’s lots of coverage specifically about assorted Arctic sea ice extent metrics over on the “2023 Minimum Extent” thread. However we’ll start the September open thread ball rolling with a couple of cross posted images.

At the end of August JAXA daily extent was 7th lowest for the date, at 4.49 million km² :

The median prediction of the contributors to the August call by the Sea Ice Prediction Network for the September monthly average extent is 4.6 million km² :

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The 2023 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent

August 22, 2023NewsAMSR2, Antarctic, AWI, Extent, JAXA, NASA, NSIDC, OSI SAF, Signe Aaboe, SIPN, Tony Heller, Zack LabeJim Hunt

It’s that time of year again! Tony Heller has been asserting that “summer is over at the North Pole” for several weeks now, and the 2023 Arctic sea ice minimum extent will occur at some point over the next four or five weeks. The exact date and level will almost certainly vary from one extent metric to the next.

To get the minimum extent ball rolling, here’s Signe Aaboe’s graph of previous summer minima based on OSI SAF data:

Here too is Zack Labe’s equivalent, based on JAXA data:

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The Information War with the Fossil Fuel Industry

August 2, 2023PoliticsAl Gore, ClimateBall, DMI, European Parliament, Extent, Greenland SMB, Junk Science, Malcolm Roberts, OSI SAF, Petermann Glacier, Psychology, Signe Aaboe, Steve Milloy, Tony Heller, Trolls, XTwitterJim Hunt

Here’s a few minutes old Xweet from my now ex Member of the European Parliament, Molly Scott Cato:

Those of us who care about the climate are in an information war with the fossil fuel industry

This is a forensic analysis of the weapons they’re using

Since this is an existential struggle it would be good to familiarise yourself with them https://t.co/m7tOKvU9gB
— Green💚🌻Molly (@GreenPartyMolly) August 2, 2023

Here’s a template for Arctic sea ice trolls, helpfully provided by my very good friend “Snow White”:

Look dumbass. Al Gore says the Arctic is warming at 4 times the speed of the rest of planet, but the data says it’s GETTING COLDER!

[Edit – August 3rd]

By way of a change, which is of course as good as a rest, today let’s take a look at some academic psychology. According to the recently published “The illusory truth effect leads to the spread of misinformation” in the journal “Cognition”:

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Facts About the Arctic in August 2023

July 31, 2023NewsAMSR2, Area, CryoSat-2, ESS, Extent, Greenland, Jack Landy, Minimum, PIOMAS, SIPN, VolumeJim Hunt

We have grandchildren visiting this week, so it seems prudent to get the new open thread started a day early, and before they wake up!

The ARCUS Sea Ice Prediction Network July report has recently been published. Here’s the graphic overview of the 30 predictions for September sea ice monthly average extent:

The July median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.66 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.51 and 4.87 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 3.12 and 5.30 million square kilometers. We note the lowest forecast is an outlier, and the only forecast that predicts a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers).

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Tony Heller’s Faithful Flock of Sheep

July 28, 2023SatireAMSR2, BoMMM, DMI, Elon Musk, JAXA, OSI SAF, Petermann Glacier, Tony Heller, TwitterJim Hunt

My Arctic alter ego was checking out the new “X” rated edition of Twitter when “she” couldn’t help but notice that Elon Musk had allowed Tony Heller back into the climate “debate” thereon, albeit with a new handle.

“Snow White” also noticed that for some strange reason Tony was telling lots of porky pies about Arctic sea ice again! Hence:

Here's @TonyClimate demonstrating yet again that either:

1) He has no understanding of all things #Arctic, or

2) He understands well enough, but he pulls the wool over the eyes of his faithful flock of followers.https://t.co/yYNhpSncLE

Which is it Tony?#ClimateScam #BOMMM https://t.co/KYjlXHf8ly
— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) July 28, 2023

and:

In actual fact July 26 #AMSR2 #Arctic #SeaIce extent is lower than 2005 👇

This #InconvenientTruth will not be reported by @TonyClimate!#ClimateScam #BOMMM #TruthDecay https://t.co/WZaYKCI888 pic.twitter.com/OmJUXeAxfk
— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) July 27, 2023

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Facts About the Arctic in July 2023

July 15, 2023NewsArea, AWI, Extent, SIPNJim Hunt

After briefly being near the bottom of the historical range at the beginning of the month, AWI’s high resolution AMSR2 area metric is now back near the top of that range:

However, although it’s not visible on the area graph extent has recently taken a bit of a tumble:

Here’s an animation showing the motion of sea ice in the Arctic over the last month:

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The Northern Sea Route in 2023

June 14, 2023NewsBering Strait, East Siberian Sea, Fedor Litke, NSR, SibirJim Hunt

Data from the Northern Sea Route General Administration web site about the current positions of ships voyaging along the Northern Sea Route reveal that the liquified natural gas carrier Fedor Litke is currently following the icebreaker Sibir through the East Siberian Sea, heading for the Bering Strait:

Watch this space!

The Northwest Passage in 2023

June 4, 2023MeltAlaskaborg, Albanyborg, Americaborg, Amundsen Gulf, Arctic Cowboys, Area, Arneborg, Bellot Strait, Beyond Her Horizons, Byam Martin Channel, CAA, Caprivi, Concentration, Coronation Gulf, CryoSat-2, Darnley Bay, Eclipse Sound, Franklin Bay, Hermione, Herschel Island, Lancaster Sound, Le Commandant Charcot, Melville Sound, Navy Board Inlet, NG Resolution, Nome, NWP, Ocean Endeavour, Pasley Bay, Ponant, Pond Inlet, Prince of Wales Strait, Prince Regent Inlet, Que Sera, Royal Wagenborg, Sentinel, SMOS, SoD, Tecla, Terra Nova, Thickness, TrinityborgJim Hunt

Prompted by a comment by Tom in the June open thread, the time has evidently come to open the 2023 Northwest Passage passage thread. First of all let’s get our bearings with the help of this map of the area:

and another map detailing the routes through Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully traversed:

As our starter for ten for 2023, there is already plenty of open water in the Amundsen Gulf, together with plenty of melt ponding on the remaining fast ice in Franklin and Darnley Bays:

*“False colour” image of the Lena Delta on June 3rd from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite*

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Facts About the Arctic in June 2023

June 2, 2023NewsAMSR2, Aqua, Area, AWI, Beaufort Sea, CAA, DMI, FDD, IMB 651330, IMB Buoys, Laptev Sea, Lena River, Lincoln Sea, Mackenzie River, Nares Strait, PIOMAS, Snow Cover, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

By way of a change, which is allegedly as good as a rest, let’s start the new month with a very pretty and almost cloud free “pseudo-colour” image of the Lena Delta and adjacent areas of the Laptev Sea: