With the 2026 minimum extent rapidly approaching, JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently 12th lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Despite the falling air temperatures, the AWI concentration map is still showing plenty of open water near the North Pole:
Note also the recent increase in the area of old ice heading for oblivion via the Fram Strait:
It’s going to be more difficult to follow traffic on the Northern Sea Route this year, because the Russian authorities are no longer publishing daily position information for ships using the route.
However other sources revealed that things got underway early this year. On May 29th the nuclear icebreaker Ural led LNG tanker Christophe de Margerie through the Vilkitsky Strait into the Laptev Sea:
On June 5th the modest convoy is about to pass Wrangel Island into the Chukchi Sea:
Another nuclear powered icebreaker, Yakutiya, has also just made its way through the Vilkitsky Strait heading east:
If Yakutiya is leading a convoy of one or more other vessels through the pack ice in the Laptev Sea they have all got satellite AIS turned off!
[Update – June 8th]Christophe de Margerie has passed through the Bering Strait, and thus completed the first west to east voyage through the Northern Sea Route this year. Ural has been left behind in the Chukchi Sea:
Yakutiya has travelled north of the New Siberian Islands and entered the East Siberian Sea:
Christophe de Margerie has just passed through the Bering Strait heading north on a return journey through the NSR. This time around Yakutiya is leading the way:
Yakutiya and Christophe de Margerie have just passed through the Vilkitsky Strait heading west:
The skies were fairly clear over the central Northern Sea Route this morning, revealing the fast ice breaking up in the East Siberian Sea and plenty of melt ponds in the Laptev Sea:
Christophe de Margerie is back in the Laptev Sea heading east, this time accompanied by Boris Davydov, another LNG tanker. The nuclear icebreakers are all in the Kara Sea, on the other side of the Vilkitsky Strait:
In a highly unusual occurrence, two “Capesize” bulk carriers are en route to the far east via the Northern Sea Route. Deyi Confidence and Deyi Excellence have entered the Laptev Sea by sailing around the north of Severnaya Zemlya rather than using the usual route via the Vilkitsky Strait:
Watch this space!
The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows that the Pacific side of the Central Arctic Basin is now almost completely refrozen:
On the Atlantic side of the Arctic the Kara Sea is rapidly refreezing:
However, sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and Baffin Bay is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently lowest for the date in the satellite era:
JAXA/ViSHOP extent is no longer “lowest for the date”! After “flatlining” for most of April the metric is now in the midst of a close knit group of the other years in the 2020s:
The high pressure area over the Central Arctic persisted through the second half of April, and so did the consequent drift of ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic periphery:
AWI’s sea ice area for the Greenland Sea is currently “highest for the date” in the AMSR2 record that started in July 2012:
The offshore winds along the Laptev Sea coast have continued, and sea ice area is now “lowest for the date”:
The first signs of a break in the high pressure dominance are appearing. GFS currently forecasts that a low pressure area will enter the Central Arctic, bring above zero temperatures over the Kara Sea on Sunday:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2025The JAXA extent graph is currently not updating, so let’s begin this month with the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute. Click the image to see a ~10 Mb animation of the last four weeks:
Note in particular the restart of export into the East Greenland Sea via the Fram Strait:
and the movement of ice within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2024 has been released:
At the beginning of May AWI’s high resolution AMSR2 extent metric is at the top of the historical range:
After a period of melt in the East Greenland Sea, export of sea ice from the Central Arctic via the Fram Strait has increased recently:
Sea ice area in the Barents Sea peaked in the first week of April and has declined steadily since then:
SMOS data is flowing again, and the gaps have been filled. Here’s the final pre melt ponding map of the spring:
It reveals large areas of thin ice that have recently developed in the Kara Sea. Here’s a pseudo colour glimpse of the region through the clouds:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2023A new month is upon us and Christmas is coming! Here’s another look at Lars Kaleschke’s high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs for the Arctic as a whole:
Extent increase stalled for the last few days of November, and as a result extent is now in a “statistical tie” with 2017 for 4th lowest extent for the date in the AMSR2 record.
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in December 2022The results of the ARCUS Sea Ice Prediction Network August call have been released, and here is the outlook for the 2021 minimum September mean Arctic sea ice extent:
The median prediction for the mean sea ice extent during the month of September 2021 is 4.39 million km2. According to ARCUS:
As of 22 August 2021, the Arctic sea-ice extent was 5.58 (compared with 25 August 2020 value of 4.43) million square kilometers. Arctic sea-ice extent in 2021 remains well below the climatological median and has closely followed the 2012 values for much of the summer but has diverged to higher sea-ice extent starting in early August. The forecasts continue to support September 2021 mean sea-ice extent being well above the September 2020 value. July sea-ice retreat has been greatest in the Eurasian seas, particularly in the East Siberian Sea, making the 2021 ice edge well north of the long-term median edge in Eurasia. Sea ice retreated since the end of July along the northern coast of Alaska, although the ice edge is near its climatological position, which makes the Beaufort and Chukchi sea ice extent the largest at this time of year since 2006. A tongue of sea ice that has been present all summer continues to extend close to land in the Kara Sea, making the northeast passage likely to remain blocked for the first time in several years. Half the models which provide spatial data to the SIO predict that the tongue is likely to survive.
Now let’s take a look at a range of assorted extent measurements. Here’s the NSIDC’s 5 day average extent:
Continue reading The 2021 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum ExtentLet’s first of all take a look at JAXA’s flavour of Arctic sea ice extent:
After reaching lowest extent for the date in early July, the weather in the Arctic Basin was stormy, cloudy and cool compared to other recent years until the last few days of the month:
Here’s the same period in 2020 for comparison purposes:
Consequently the rate of extent loss in the second half of July was significantly less than last year.
Next let’s take a look at AMSR2 concentration:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in August 2021It’s May Day 2021, and just for a change we’re going to start the month off with a pretty picture!
Parts of the Laptev Sea are starting to look distinctly “warm” in the infra-red. Here’s a “false colour” image taken by the Terra satellite during a gap in the clouds:
We have reached the time of year when the SMOS “thin ice thickness” readings start being affected by surface melt, but let’s take a look anyway:
That area of the Laptev certainly appears to be either thin or melting.
Meanwhile on the Canadian side of the Arctic the fast ice off the Mackenzie Delta is starting to get damp, even though the river itself still looks to be fairly well frozen:
It will also be interesting to follow the progress of this large floe as it heads towards oblivion through the Fram Strait:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2021