JAXA have updated their visualisations of Arctic sea ice extent data. The “traditional” 2 day average graph is now labelled “preliminary”, and currently shows 2026 in a tie with 2020 for third lowest for the date:
5 day averaged “confirmed” data is also available, including regional graphs. By way of example here’s JAXA’s latest extent graph for the Bering Sea, dated May 15th:
The Alfred Wegener Institute’s sea ice concentration data reveals open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas:
JAXA Arctic sea ice extent has just reached a new high for the year. At 13.76 million km² extent is currently 4th lowest for the date, just below last year’s maximum of 13.78 million km²:
JAXA extent is currently lowest for the date in their record going back to 1979. It’s highly likely that the metric peaked on March 7th which is a new record low maximum, albeit by a mere 20 thousand km²:
By way of a contrast, the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s 5 day averaged extent maximum of 14.29 million km² was reached on March 15th:
Here is the mid month update on the AWI’s CryoSat-2/Sentinel 3/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map:
Here too is the associated sea ice volume graph:
Next here are the ERA5 MSLP and 925 hPa air temperature anomaly maps for February 2026, now in “Greenland down” orientation to match the thickness maps:
together with the NSIDC monthly average extent graph for February:
The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows the East Siberian and Laptev Seas almost completely refrozen. However, refreeze of the Kara Sea has barely begun:
Across the Arctic as a whole the refreeze has slowed significantly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite era:
However, average NSIDC extent for the month of October was higher than last year and above the linear trend:
The ERA5 MSLP map for October shows high pressure over Siberia, associated with lower than normal air temperatures at 925 hPa across the region. However, temperatures across almost the entire Arctic Ocean were above normal:
High Arctic freezing degree days based on DMI >80N data were lowest for the date at the beginning of November:
Bear in mind the caveats about the current lack of reliable SMOS data on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, and that Sentinel 3 data is only incorporated from Autumn 2023.
[Update – November 20th]
Refreeze of the Beaufort Sea is complete, and refreeze of the Kara Sea has started in earnest:
However, the Barents Sea is still sea ice free and refreeze of Hudson Bay has barely begun:
JAXA extent is still second lowest for the date:
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for October has yet to be corrected, but here is the mid month thickness map from AWI:
Here too is the associated volume graph:
[Update – November 27th]
JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now lowest for the date in their record going back to 1978:
[Update – December 5th]
The PIOMAS team have finally published gridded thickness data for October and November, so here are the October 31st and November 15th thickness maps:
The conversation continues over on the December open thread, including the latest PIOMAS data.
Yes. NSIDC satellite data shows Arctic September sea ice extent declined from ~6.5 million km² in the early 2000s to ~4.2 million km² by 2024, while PIOMAS volume estimates fell from ~12,000 km³ to under 4,000 km³. Shellenberger's claim ignores these multi-decadal trends, though…
By way of additional background information, Wikipedia asserts that:
Grok is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by xAI. It was launched in November 2023 by Elon Musk as an initiative based on the large language model (LLM) of the same name. Grok has apps for iOS and Android and is integrated with the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Tesla vehicles, and Tesla’s Optimus robot. The chatbot is named after the verb grok, coined by American author Robert A. Heinlein in his 1961 science fiction novel Stranger in a Strange Land to describe a deeper than human form of understanding.
The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions. Updates since 2023 have shifted the bot politically rightward to provide conservative responses to user queries.
and that:
Michael D. Shellenberger is an American author and journalist. He is the first endowed professor at the University of Austin, serving as CBR Chair of Politics, Censorship, and Free Speech.
Shellenberger is a prominent heterodox thinker on topics including climate change and homelessness…
An archived photograph in the NHHC image collection: “USN 1040961 USS SKATE (SSN–578)” which shows the submarine moored to the ice pack. flickr.com
A blog article “USS Skate at the North Pole – Truth and Fantasy Fiction” that collects several of the historic photographs and discusses their context. greatwhitecon.info
I asked ChatGPT to check out the final link in more detail. I was informed:
What GreatWhiteCon does well:
It collects and reproduces the historic images and contemporary captions, and discusses how those images have been interpreted (or misinterpreted) over time. That makes it a handy one-stop place to see the pictures and some commentary.
What GreatWhiteCon is not:
It is a blog/analysis piece (2018) rather than an official or archival source. That means its interpretation is useful, but any factual claim that matters (dates, official captions, archival catalog numbers) is best checked against the primary records (Naval History & Heritage Command, National Archives, contemporary magazines, USNI Proceedings).
Grok has a rather different interpretation of what Great White Con does well. Allegedly “Snow White”:
Counters alarmist views… promoting nuanced data interpretation over binary claims.
At the beginning of last month JAXA/ViSHOP extent was third lowest for the date in the satellite era. With the date of the 2025 minimum extent rapidly approaching that is no longer the case:
Whilst JAXA extent is now 10th lowest, PIOMAS volume remains second lowest for the date:
Here’s the associated thickness map. Note the change of scale from last month
Compare and contrast that map with the AWI’s sea ice concentration map, particularly in the Beaufort Sea area:
I frequently post a summary of the Arctic section of the United States’ National Snow and Ice Data Center’s monthly review of the current state of the cryosphere. Here is the most recent edition.
Effective May 5, 2025, NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) will decommission its snow and ice data products from the Coasts, Oceans, and Geophysics Science Division (COGS).
As a result, the level of services for affected products below will be reduced to Basic—meaning they will remain accessible but may not be actively maintained, updated, or fully supported.
If you rely on these products in your work, research, education, or planning, we invite you to share your story at [email protected]. Your input can help us demonstrate the importance of these data sets and advocate for future support.
I will certainly share my story with the NSIDC. If you are a resident of the US you may also wish to contact your local friendly neighbourhood politician(s) about the matter?
[Update – May 9th]
Mark Serreze, Director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, replied to my email and told me that:
We are acutely aware of the importance of the SII and Sea Ice Today. Millions of visits per year. High priority. We’re in the middle of discussions about to make sure that we have continuity.
Thanks for your support. Everything helps.
One of the less well known data products provided by the NSIDC is EASE-Grid Sea Ice Age.
I recently used that particular mine of essential cryospheric information to produce this educational YouTube video:
The video reveals the underlying reason for the “fast transition” of Arctic sea ice cover from thick multi-year ice to a reduced area of much more mobile young ice.
JAXA/ViSHOP extent is no longer “lowest for the date”! After “flatlining” for most of April the metric is now in the midst of a close knit group of the other years in the 2020s:
The high pressure area over the Central Arctic persisted through the second half of April, and so did the consequent drift of ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic periphery:
AWI’s sea ice area for the Greenland Sea is currently “highest for the date” in the AMSR2 record that started in July 2012:
The offshore winds along the Laptev Sea coast have continued, and sea ice area is now “lowest for the date”:
The first signs of a break in the high pressure dominance are appearing. GFS currently forecasts that a low pressure area will enter the Central Arctic, bring above zero temperatures over the Kara Sea on Sunday:
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