July was once again dominated by low pressure and anomalously low temperatures over the central Arctic:
As a consequence the NSIDC monthly average extent for July was 6th lowest in their record going back to 1979:
August began with low pressure still dominant. According to the Canadian Meteorological Centre yet another cyclone bottomed out with a mean sea level pressure of 973 hPa on the 4th:
The continuing cyclonic activity has dispersed the sea ice, and JAXA extent is currently 12th lowest in their record:
The other side of the same coin is that reduced sea ice concentration is now apparent across large areas of the Central Arctic Basin:
Another, less intense, storm is due to arrive over the coming weekend. Here is the current GFS forecast for Saturday morning:
For those of you unfamiliar with the names of the assorted islands and channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago here is a map that hopefully helps:
Plus another map detailing the routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully navigated by vessels large and small:
The sea ice in Lancaster Sound and the Amundsen Gulf is breaking up, and melt ponds are now visible on the fast ice across much of the southern route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:
“False colour” image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on June 17th from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite
The melt ponds previously visible in the Coronation Gulf now appear to have drained:
“False colour” image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on June 3rd from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite
JAXA have updated their visualisations of Arctic sea ice extent data. The “traditional” 2 day average graph is now labelled “preliminary”, and currently shows 2026 in a tie with 2020 for third lowest for the date:
5 day averaged “confirmed” data is also available, including regional graphs. By way of example here’s JAXA’s latest extent graph for the Bering Sea, dated May 15th:
The Alfred Wegener Institute’s sea ice concentration data reveals open water in the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas:
In early April JAXA Arctic sea ice extent is 3rd lowest for the date, albeit in a “statistical tie” with last year:
The Alfred Wegener Institute’s regional extent graphs reveal an intriguing divergence on the Pacific periphery, where sea ice extent in the Sea of Okhotsk is at an all time low for the date in the AMSR2 record:
On the other hand extent in the Bering Sea is close to an all time high:
On the Atlantic periphery extent is less extreme, although there is currently open water north of Svalbard:
JAXA Arctic sea ice extent has just reached a new high for the year. At 13.76 million km² extent is currently 4th lowest for the date, just below last year’s maximum of 13.78 million km²:
JAXA extent is currently lowest for the date in their record going back to 1979. It’s highly likely that the metric peaked on March 7th which is a new record low maximum, albeit by a mere 20 thousand km²:
By way of a contrast, the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s 5 day averaged extent maximum of 14.29 million km² was reached on March 15th:
Here is the mid month update on the AWI’s CryoSat-2/Sentinel 3/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map:
Here too is the associated sea ice volume graph:
Next here are the ERA5 MSLP and 925 hPa air temperature anomaly maps for February 2026, now in “Greenland down” orientation to match the thickness maps:
together with the NSIDC monthly average extent graph for February:
Hudson Bay has fully frozen over during January. However, there is still open water north of Svalbard and in the North Water Polynya. It’s even possible to go swimming in the Nares Strait according to the latest AMSR2 concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute:
JAXA extent is currently 3rd lowest for the date, in a “statistical tie” with 2017:
Looking at the third dimension next, PIOMAS volume was second lowest for the date by a whisker at the end of January:
The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows that the Pacific side of the Central Arctic Basin is now almost completely refrozen:
On the Atlantic side of the Arctic the Kara Sea is rapidly refreezing:
However, sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and Baffin Bay is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently lowest for the date in the satellite era:
The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows the East Siberian and Laptev Seas almost completely refrozen. However, refreeze of the Kara Sea has barely begun:
Across the Arctic as a whole the refreeze has slowed significantly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite era:
However, average NSIDC extent for the month of October was higher than last year and above the linear trend:
The ERA5 MSLP map for October shows high pressure over Siberia, associated with lower than normal air temperatures at 925 hPa across the region. However, temperatures across almost the entire Arctic Ocean were above normal:
High Arctic freezing degree days based on DMI >80N data were lowest for the date at the beginning of November:
Bear in mind the caveats about the current lack of reliable SMOS data on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, and that Sentinel 3 data is only incorporated from Autumn 2023.
[Update – November 20th]
Refreeze of the Beaufort Sea is complete, and refreeze of the Kara Sea has started in earnest:
However, the Barents Sea is still sea ice free and refreeze of Hudson Bay has barely begun:
JAXA extent is still second lowest for the date:
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for October has yet to be corrected, but here is the mid month thickness map from AWI:
Here too is the associated volume graph:
[Update – November 27th]
JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now lowest for the date in their record going back to 1978:
[Update – December 5th]
The PIOMAS team have finally published gridded thickness data for October and November, so here are the October 31st and November 15th thickness maps:
The conversation continues over on the December open thread, including the latest PIOMAS data.
At the beginning of last month JAXA/ViSHOP extent was third lowest for the date in the satellite era. With the date of the 2025 minimum extent rapidly approaching that is no longer the case:
Whilst JAXA extent is now 10th lowest, PIOMAS volume remains second lowest for the date:
Here’s the associated thickness map. Note the change of scale from last month
Compare and contrast that map with the AWI’s sea ice concentration map, particularly in the Beaufort Sea area:
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