With the 2026 minimum extent rapidly approaching, JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently 12th lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Despite the falling air temperatures, the AWI concentration map is still showing plenty of open water near the North Pole:
Note also the recent increase in the area of old ice heading for oblivion via the Fram Strait:
Atmospheric conditions over the Arctic in August were once again dominated by low pressure over the Central Arctic Basin, this time offset from the Pole towards Siberia. Temperatures at the 925 hPa pressure level were anomalously high across most of the Arctic, in particular over the Kara Sea and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:
The NSIDC monthly average extent graph for August shows 2026 well above the linear trend line, and 10th lowest overall:
A slight uptick in NSIDC extent yesterday has been followed by an uptick in JAXA extent today. Whilst it is possible that the 2026 minimum has already been reached there is a large fly in the Arctic ointment. The latest central Arctic cyclone is forecast by GFS to bottom out at 980 hPa later today:
The (extremely!) provisional numbers are 4.598 million km² on September 12th for the NSIDC 5 day average and 4.459 million km² on September 13th for the JAXA “provisional” extent.
Watch this space!
I’ve just discovered that the NSIDC’s Sea Ice Today monthly analysis reports have resumed, although they haven’t included the August ERA5 data in their report. Instead they show these May to July quarterly mean maps.
JAXA extent is down to 4,464k km. Not sure if that’s slightly below 2018s minimum, but if so it would be the 10th lowest extent minimum in the satellite record.
Ore impressively NSIDC area looks to be 4th lowest if I’m not mistaken
JAXA extent hasn’t got 10th lowest locked in yet, albeit by a proverbial whisker.
2018 minimum was 4.457k
4,458k this morning…a whisker indeed!!
Jim,
I’m pretty reaxed. For once.
I’m sure you caught the memo from the UN.
There’s no way we can stop warming. We’d like to.
But there’s just no humanly way we can stop what is happening.
Actually I hadn’t previously read the memo. I assume this is the one you’re referring to?
https://www.unep.org/resources/limiting-overshoot-navigating-exceedance
In other news: Heller is being silly about the North Pole.
Tell me about it GS:
Please tell Tony too!