Category Archives: News

Facts About the Arctic in October 2024

The JAXA extent graph is currently not updating, so let’s begin this month with the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute. Click the image to see a ~10 Mb animation of the last four weeks:

Note in particular the restart of export into the East Greenland Sea via the Fram Strait:

and the movement of ice within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2024 has been released:

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in October 2024…

Facts About the Arctic in September 2024

At the beginning of September JAXA/ViSHOP extent was 4th lowest for the date in the satellite era:

For much more detail on sea ice extent for the next few weeks please see the dedicated 2024 minimum thread. However, note that as extent has been flatlining sea ice area is still declining:

The latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals that the area of thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has still not melted:

The most recent sea ice age map currently available dates from the beginning of August. Comparison with the concentration map shows that most of the remaining first year ice is highly fragmented, even close to the North Pole:

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in September 2024…

Sailing The Northwest Passage Solo

David Scott Cowper is 82, and his first solo voyage through the Northwest Passage, in the converted lifeboat Mabel E. Holland, began in the Davis Strait in 1986. After spending 3 winters north of the Arctic Circle, Mabel eventually travelled south through the Bering Strait in 1989:

Mabel E. Holland at Fort Ross
Image: David Scott Cowper – Shared under a CC BY-SA 1.0 licence

David’s second solo voyage through the Northwest Passage took place from east to west starting in 2003. His purpose built motor vessel, Polar Bound, spent the winter in Cambridge Bay and completed the voyage in the summer of 2004:

Polar Bound at Cambridge Bay in 2009
Image: Cambridge Bay Weather – Shared under a CC BY-SA 3.0 licence

For this summer’s east to west voyage David is travelling in Polar Bound once again, this time accompanied by Susannah Broome. They have crossed the North Atlantic from Newcastle and have recently departed from Qaqortoq in the south west of Greenland:

Read more on Sailing The Northwest Passage Solo…

Facts About the Arctic in August 2024

At the beginning of August JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

In 2012 extent had just started its unprecedented plunge towards the record September minimum, and 2024 seems certain to cross above the 2012 curve shortly. However, the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals areas of open water across the majority of the Central Arctic Basin:

In particular the sea ice between the North Pole and northern Greenland is remarkably fragmented:

“False colour” image of the North Pole on August 3rd from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in August 2024…

The Northwest Passage in 2024

Some “pleasure craft” are currently heading up the west coast of Greenland en route to the Bering Strait via Lancaster Sound and one of the assorted routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. For those of you unfamiliar with the geography of the Northwest Passage, here are couple of hopefully helpful maps:

Whilst there is still ice blocking the route across Baffin Bay from Greenland, the Canadian Ice Service has already started daily coverage of the heart of the southern route through the Northwest Passage. There’s plenty of open water in Lancaster Sound and low concentration sea ice in Prince Regent Inlet:

Further south there is also open water in the Coronation Gulf, but the fast ice between Peel Sound and King William Island has not yet started breaking up:

This slightly cloudy satellite image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago also shows that the exit of the northern route via McClure Strait into the Beaufort Sea is already navigable:

Read more on The Northwest Passage in 2024…

Facts About the Arctic in July 2024

The first sea ice outlook report for 2024 has been published by the Sea Ice Prediction Network:

This year’s median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.48 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 4.21 to 4.74 million square kilometers. This is slightly lower than the 2022 (4.57 million square kilometers) and 2023 (4.54 million square kilometers) June median forecasts for September.

The lowest sea-ice extent forecast is 3.1 million square kilometers, from the UK Met Office, which would be a new record low for the satellite period (1979-present); the highest sea-ice extent forecast is 5.21 million square kilometers, submitted by both the HEU Group and SYSU/SML-MLM, which would be the highest September extent since 2015:

There are three heuristic Outlooks, with a median of 4.32 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.26 to 4.4 million square kilometers. Statistical submissions total fifteen Outlooks with a median of 4.68 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.47 to 4.9 million square kilometers. There are nine dynamical model contributions. The dynamical models have a median forecast of 3.97 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 3.68 to 4.35 million square kilometers.

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in July 2024…

Facts About the Arctic in June 2024

The JAXA/ViSHOP web site is currently down, so here is the current OSI SAF extent graph for the end of May:

2012’s “June cliff” is almost upon us, and if 2024’s current trajectory continues extent will cross above 2012 for the first time since February in a week or so.

Here’s the GFS model’s current map of snow depth:

Melt ponds are now visible on the ice in the Laptev Sea:

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in June 2024…

Facts About the Arctic in May 2024

Since a certain “sceptic” has recently been comparing 2024 sea ice extent to “20 years ago”, here’s the current JAXA/ViSHOP extent graph of selected years, including 2004:

The CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph finishes on April 15th, but older data is being reanalysed and here is the latest version:

The gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March has been filled in, but the result doesn’t look very convincing to say the least!

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for April 2024 is now available. Here’s the end of month volume graph:

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in May 2024…

Facts About the Arctic in April 2024

Starting this month with a look at assorted volume/thickness data, here is the CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map for March 31st:

Plus the associated volume graph, which still suffers from a gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for March 2024 is also available. Here’s the end of month thickness map:

Plus the calculated volume graph:

Especially for Peter, here too is the DMI’s chart of monthly Arctic sea ice volume for March:

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in April 2024…

Facts About the Arctic in March 2024

It looks as though the 2024 Arctic sea ice melting season has begun. For much greater detail see the 2024 maximum extent thread. However, here’s the latest JAXA Arctic sea ice extent graph:

Here too is an animation of sea ice motion on the Atlantic periphery, showing the effect of the passage of several Arctic cyclones through the area over the past 5 weeks or so:

[Update – March 4th]

My usual start of month processing hasn’t gone according to plan. Thanks to Lars Kaleschke at the Alfred Wegener Institute for the following information:

SMOS went into safe mode on 22 February 2024 at 05:10 UTC for reasons that are still under investigation.

The spacecraft has been back in nominal mode since 25 February 2024 and on 27 February 2024, the MIRAS instrument was switched on and is currently performing well.

The reload of the nominal acquisition planning is underway, and if all science data quality checks are positive, nominal data production and dissemination will resume in the coming days.

Read more on Facts About the Arctic in March 2024…