For those of you unfamiliar with the names of the assorted islands and channels of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago here is a map that hopefully helps:
Plus another map detailing the routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully navigated by vessels large and small:
The sea ice in Lancaster Sound and the Amundsen Gulf is breaking up, and melt ponds are now visible on the fast ice across much of the southern route through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:
The melt ponds previously visible in the Coronation Gulf now appear to have drained:
Looking at 2 dimensional data to begin with, CAA sea ice area is currently in the middle of the AMSR2 era pack:
To get a better feel for what might happen during the coming summer season here too is the state of play in the third dimension, courtesy of the Alfred Wegener Institute’s last combined thickness data of the winter from the Cryosat-2, Sentinel 3 and SMOS satellites:
Let’s also take a look at the Canadian Ice Service‘s sea ice “stage of development” charts. Here’s the most recent one for the “Western Arctic”, from June 15th:
There is no old ice anywhere on the southern route, so the stage seems set for the Northwest Passage to open relatively early this summer, with a final “choke point” in the Larsen Sound/Franklin Strait region.
Note that there is a potential fly in the NWP ointment, a recurrence of last year’s winds that blew old ice in the Beaufort Sea close to shore in the Amundsen Gulf during the first half of August!
The skies over the Canadian Arctic Archipelago were fairly clear yesterday:
Much of the Coronation Gulf and Lancaster Sound are now free of sea ice. Peel Sound looks as though it will start breaking up in earnest in the not too distant future.
[Update – July 17th]There was another good view of the CAA from on high yesterday:
McClure Strait has started to break up, as has the southern half of Peel Sound. From there a hypothetical “small vessel” could hug the coast to Gjoa Haven, then it’s plain sailing all the way to the Amundsen Gulf
[Update – July 21st]Sea ice area in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is very close to an all time low for the date:
However, sea ice area in the Beaufort Sea is at a maximum for the date in the AMSR2 era:
It may well be that the Beaufort Sea will provide the last “choke point” blocking the Northwest Passage before it opens this year.
[Update – July 23rd]The latest Canadian Ice Service daily chart for Baffin Bay shows that the eastern entrance to the CAA is clear of sea ice, as it has been for weeks now:
The CIS hasn’t started daily coverage of any of the “western” sections of the NWP, so here’s the latest weekly chart:
It shows <=6/10 concentration ice all the way from Bellot Strait to the Amundsen Gulf. However, Peel Sound and Prince Regent Inlet are still blocked.
Here’s a closer look at the “choke points” in the Amundsen Gulf and Beaufort Sea shown on the concentration map above:
The skies were clear over the central CAA yesterday, revealing that some ice is still lingering in Prince Regent Inlet on route 6.
In the absence of clear skies over the coast of Alaska, here’s the latest National Weather Service ice concentration map:
The route is still blocked near the Alaska/Yukon border.
P.S. The CIS has started daily coverage of the Alaskan coast:
The CIS has started daily coverage of the Amundsen Gulf:
The CIS has started daily coverage of Queen Maud Gulf:
It shows that the eastern entrance to Bellot Strait is still cut off by an area of 7-8/10 concentration ice. The rest of the southern route through the CAA is navigable, but that does not apply to the Beaufort Sea:
As well as the coast west of Herschel Island, the route is also now blocked by 9-10/10 concentration ice at Utqiaġvik.
[Update – August 5th]The latest CIS chart still shows that the route along the Beaufort Sea coast is still blocked by 7-8/10 concentration ice west of Herschel Island:
Nevertheless, SY Diablesse has rounded Point Barrow and is heading in that direction:
Travelling from east to west Alma af Frøya, a modern replica of Gjoa, is following Amundsen’s route through Peel Sound:
Harmattan, a more conventional yacht, spent the winter in Pond Inlet and is now heading south through Prince Regent Inlet.
[Update – August 6th]There is a curious difference of opinion between the daily and weekly CIS charts about the Beaufort Sea “choke point”:
It’s been a bit cloudy, but by way of arbitration here’s what MODIS has to say on the matter:
Here’s a still slightly cloudy look at the area west of Herschel Island via Sentinel-2:
Watch this space!
