Category Archives: News

Facts About the Arctic in August 2023

July 31, 2023NewsAMSR2, Area, CryoSat-2, ESS, Extent, Greenland, Jack Landy, Minimum, PIOMAS, SIPN, VolumeJim Hunt

We have grandchildren visiting this week, so it seems prudent to get the new open thread started a day early, and before they wake up!

The ARCUS Sea Ice Prediction Network July report has recently been published. Here’s the graphic overview of the 30 predictions for September sea ice monthly average extent:

The July median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.66 million square kilometers with interquartile values of 4.51 and 4.87 million square kilometers, while individual forecasts range from 3.12 and 5.30 million square kilometers. We note the lowest forecast is an outlier, and the only forecast that predicts a new record September sea-ice extent value (current record is September 2012, with a sea-ice extent of 3.57 million square kilometers).

Facts About the Arctic in July 2023

July 15, 2023NewsArea, AWI, Extent, SIPNJim Hunt

After briefly being near the bottom of the historical range at the beginning of the month, AWI’s high resolution AMSR2 area metric is now back near the top of that range:

However, although it’s not visible on the area graph extent has recently taken a bit of a tumble:

Here’s an animation showing the motion of sea ice in the Arctic over the last month:

The Northern Sea Route in 2023

June 14, 2023NewsBering Strait, East Siberian Sea, Fedor Litke, NSR, SibirJim Hunt

Data from the Northern Sea Route General Administration web site about the current positions of ships voyaging along the Northern Sea Route reveal that the liquified natural gas carrier Fedor Litke is currently following the icebreaker Sibir through the East Siberian Sea, heading for the Bering Strait:

Facts About the Arctic in June 2023

June 2, 2023NewsAMSR2, Aqua, Area, AWI, Beaufort Sea, CAA, DMI, FDD, IMB 651330, IMB Buoys, Laptev Sea, Lena River, Lincoln Sea, Mackenzie River, Nares Strait, PIOMAS, Snow Cover, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

By way of a change, which is allegedly as good as a rest, let’s start the new month with a very pretty and almost cloud free “pseudo-colour” image of the Lena Delta and adjacent areas of the Laptev Sea:

*“False colour” image of the Lena Delta on June 1st from the MODIS instrument on the Aqua satellite*

Laptev sea ice area decline has been in high gear recently:

Facts About the Arctic in May 2023

May 3, 2023NewsAMSR2, Anne Sledd, Area, Art of Melt 2023, AWI, CAA, Chaunskaya Bay, Chukchi Sea, Cloud Feedback, Coronation Gulf, Cyclone, Dempster Highway, Extent, Fires, Fort McPherson, Fram Strait, Greenland Sea, IMB 651330, IMB Buoys, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, Mackenzie River, MIZ, Oden, Peel River, Pevek, SMOS, Svalbard, TsiigehtchicJim Hunt

At the beginning of May AWI’s high resolution AMSR2 extent metric is at the top of the historical range:

After a period of melt in the East Greenland Sea, export of sea ice from the Central Arctic via the Fram Strait has increased recently:

Sea ice area in the Barents Sea peaked in the first week of April and has declined steadily since then:

SMOS data is flowing again, and the gaps have been filled. Here’s the final pre melt ponding map of the spring:

It reveals large areas of thin ice that have recently developed in the Kara Sea. Here’s a pseudo colour glimpse of the region through the clouds:

Facts About the Arctic in April 2023

April 9, 2023NewsAge, Beaufort Sea, CAA, CryoSat-2, Extent, Greenland, NSIDC, PIOMAS, SMOS, ThicknessJim Hunt

Arctic sea ice extent in early April is singularly unexceptional. Here’s the AWI AMSR2 version:

Things start to become more interesting when looking at the third dimension. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness map for March 31st:

and the CryoSat-2/SMOS map for the same date:

Note the differing distribution of thick ice north of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago between the two maps. Note also the area of thinner ice along the coast of the Beaufort Sea visible on the CS2/SMOS map.

By way of explanation for that phenomenon see the March sea level pressure map from the latest edition of the NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice News:

Facts About the Arctic in March 2023

March 8, 2023NewsBBC, Colliford Lake, Cornwall, CryoSat-2, Desalination, Drought, Extent, FMI, Fram Strait, JAXA, Kirk England, PIOMAS, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

We’ll come on to the Arctic in a moment, but at more temperate latitudes I am proud to announce that my Cornish alter ego has been officially outed as an “environmental campaigner” by the BBC. Moving pictures of yours truly, discussing drought rather than sea ice, are available via BBC iPlayer until around 18:30 this evening, possibly to UK residents only.

[Stop Press! A shorter version of Kirk England’s report on two potential desalination plants in Cornwall (also including my 15 seconds of fame!) is available here until around 22:30 this evening ]

Alternatively we have recorded our own moving pictures of this momentous event:

Yesterday we had a good look around #Colliford Lake, by far the largest reservoir in #Cornwall. Following last year's #drought it is currently still less than half full:https://t.co/pk71eN3NQJ

Our intro includes @kasiaturajczyk exploring the "beach"#Drought2023 in #Kernow? pic.twitter.com/3t3lFd6esD

— Davidstow Info 〓〓 (@DavidstowInfo) March 7, 2023

And an added still image as well:

The 2023 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

March 2, 2023NewsAWI, Extent, JAXA, NSIDC, Zack LabeJim Hunt

March has arrived, so it’s time to start taking a serious look at where and when the 2023 maximum Arctic sea ice extent will occur.

To start with here’s Zack Labe’s overview of previous years’ maxima:

Facts About the Arctic in February 2023

February 3, 2023NewsAMSR2, Area, ASIF, AWI, CryoSat-2, Cyclone, Extent, Fram Strait, JAXA, Maximum, Minimum, MSLP, NSIDC, PIOMAS, SMOS, Snow Cover, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

A new month has arrived, and during January several Arctic sea ice metrics have been drifting towards the bottom of their respective decadal ranges. To begin with here is AWI’s high resolution AMSR2 extent graph, which is currently very close to being lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:

However that is less the case for area:

Taylor is keen to see the PIOMAS volume data for January, but whilst we wait for the latest Polar Science Center update here is the CryoSat-2/SMOS volume graph, which now includes a couple of month’s worth of reanalysed results as well as more recent near real time numbers:

Here too is the start of month CS2/SMOS thickness map:

Facts About the Arctic in January 2023

January 4, 2023NewsAMSR2, Area, CAB, CryoSat-2, DMI, Extent, Fram Strait, Nares Strait, PIOMAS, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

At the beginning of the New Year all the central regions of the Arctic are now refrozen apart from a small area of the Kara Sea:

Most Arctic sea ice metrics are near the middle of their respective ranges over the last decade. By way of example, here is a graph of Arctic Freezing Degree Days based on the Danish Meteorological Institute’s temperature data for the area north of 80 degrees latitude:

The Great White Con

Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight