Halloween is a little way away still, but nonetheless I have a horror story to tell you. Are you sitting comfortably?
As our regular reader(s) will be aware we have been following the fortunes of the plucky little yacht Northabout on her Arctic circumnavigation with great interest. That includes the series of reports about the voyage on the BBC Radio 4 Today programme. Even recent passers by may have noticed that we were none too pleased with the most recent episode in the series!
Now comes news that one of the numerous usual suspects has been blathering about both the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition and that BBC Radio 4 programme. Enter stage right James Delingpole at Breitbart. Under the catchy but erroneous headline:
The Polar Ocean Challenge expedition – aka Ship of Fools II – has escaped from the Arctic by the skin of its teeth. It was supposed to show how amazingly navigable the Arctic Circle has become now that climate change is supposedly melting the polar ice caps at a dangerous and unprecedented rate. But according to one observer who has followed their progress closely (see comments at Paul Homewood‘s place), the intrepid explorers – including a 14-year-old boy – came within just two days of calamity, after being hampered by unexpectedly large quantities of a mysterious substance apparently made of frozen water.
Regular readers will recall that not a lot of people know that Paul Homewood is the proprietor of a production line of porky pies full of horrifying Arctic anomalies. Mr. Delingpole references one batch of such Halloween howlers, wittily entitled:
The southern NWP route is now closed at the NE exit, with northern Prince Regent Sound blocked by 9/10 ice in freeze up mode. Exactly where they barely made it through after hours of probing on 9/12. Northabout made it through NWP with just two days to spare. Had they taken the planned 2 days resupplying in Barrow rather than 1, and the planned one day call at Cambridge Bay (meeting up with Polar Bound), they would not have made it out and would have had to turn around and overwinter at Cambridge Bay. It was that close.
Now how can I put this politely? That is pure unadulterated balderdash. If Mr. Delingpole thinks that a comment on a known “snow blind” blog constitutes evidence of anything he needs one of his heads examined. Deconstructing all the mistakes in just this one article about both Northabout and the BBC’s climate change coverage will involve a series with more episodes than BBC Radio 4s! However we have to start somewhere, so let’s examine this assertion first shall we?
Paul Homewood notes… it’s also the earliest minimum since 1997, indicating that the Arctic is currently experiencing a very cold spell.
Some skeptical fellows over on Twitter disagreed with me about the facts of the matter. This is how that “debate” proceeded:
In other news Anthony Watts has today published a guest post about Arctic sea ice by one Caleb Shaw on his Watts Up With That blog. I thought I’d pose Paul and Caleb some relevant questions, but a team of Gremlins seem to have been hard at work stealing my pertinent comments before the assorted [mods] could approve them. By way of example, from Breitbart:
The BBC Radio 4 Today programme broadcast another one of their regular updates on the progress of the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition. On this occasion they were able to interview David Hempleman-Adams, the leader of the expedition. That’s because David disembarked from the yacht Northabout at Upernavik in Greenland:
By now David is back in Blighty, in Swindon to be precise. Here’s a brief extract from his interview with Sarah Montague this morning.
David pointed out that:
We’re not scientists. We weren’t collecting scientific data, and it’s wrong to suggest that our trip, this adventure, will show that there’s less ice. What we’re trying to do is make people more aware of the hundreds of scientists who are doing good work and who actually do show that.
At this juncture you might have supposed that one or more of those “hundreds of scientists” might have been mentioned, but you would have been wrong. Shortly thereafter Sarah asked David:
You will know though that the well known science writer Matt Ridley has written about your expedition and said look there are times in the past where routinely ice has disappeared during the summer, and his argument is that really it doesn’t matter, it doesn’t actually tell us anything.
I fondly imagine that at this juncture David raised his eyes to the heavens over Swindon. After all he’d already explained to Sarah that, rather like Matt Ridley, he isn’t a scientist. What he actually then said was:
Sure. You know I do know that he’s written that, and other people. But if you look on balance, and you know I’m just one of the general public, if you look on balance, if you look at 99% of the scientists they’re all saying that we’ve got a problem and if you look at the trends, and of course there are trends over the years but what we’re seeing now is really rapid change. If you look at the, as I said, the Northwest Passage it is quite frightening. We didn’t actually see any ice for the entire route up until the Lancaster Sound, which is worrying whatever scientists say or the naysayers say. It is a worrying trend.
And if you look at the cultures, I’ve been going up there for 30 years now, it’s not just sea ice. If you look at these small, little Inuit villages and seen the impact of the climate on some of these places, you know there’s been dramatic change over the last 30 years.
At which juncture Sarah thanked David Hempleman-Adams and Nick Robinson said:
The time is now 26 minutes past eight, and Rob’s got the sports news.
It’s nice to know where the BBC’s priorities lie, and that they prefer to publicise the views of a “coal baron” rather than one or more of “the hundreds of scientists who are doing good work” on the subject of sea ice.
Should you be wondering at this juncture how the opinions of Matt Ridley are at variance with the actual facts take a look at the August 29th article of his in The Times of London that Sarah Montague was referring to:
The sea ice in the Arctic Ocean is approaching its annual nadir. By early September each year about two thirds of the ice cap has melted, then the sea begins to freeze again. This year looks unlikely to set a record for melting, with more than four million square kilometres of ice remaining, less than the average in the 1980s and 1990s, but more than in the record low years of 2007 and 2012.
This will disappoint some. An expedition led by David Hempleman-Adams to circumnavigate the North Pole through the Northeast and Northwest passages, intending to demonstrate “that the Arctic sea ice coverage shrinks back so far now in the summer months that sea that was permanently locked up now can allow passage through”, was recently held up for weeks north of Siberia by, um, ice. They have only just reached halfway.
However it’s also extremely misleading. The yacht Northabout reached the International Date Line spot on the original Polar Ocean Challenge schedule, and earlier than previous successful polar circumnavigations managed to achieve.
Must I go on? I suppose so! Skipping several more untruths, a bit later Matt opines:
Would it matter if it did all melt one year? Here’s the point everybody seems to be missing: the Arctic Ocean’s ice has indeed disappeared during summer in the past, routinely. The evidence comes from various sources, such as beach ridges in northern Greenland, never unfrozen today, which show evidence of wave action in the past. One Danish team concluded in 2012 that 8,500 years ago the ice extent was “less than half of the record low 2007 level”. A Swedish team, in a paper published in 2014, went further: between 10,000 years ago and 6,000 years ago, the Arctic experienced a “regime dominated by seasonal ice, ie, ice-free summers”.
Here’s a thought for you to consider Matt. What was the population of London between 10,000 years ago and 6,000 years ago? How about Miami or the Big Apple, or Dhaka for that matter? Has it ever crossed your mind to enquire what the human population of the whole of Planet Earth was “during parts of the early and middle Holocene”, and what sea level around the World might have been at that time?
Answers on a postcard please, in the space provided for that purpose below. We’ll forward them on to the BBC. I don’t suppose Matt will be interested though.
Sarah Montague was interviewing David Hempleman-Adams about the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition to circumnavigate the Arctic. David pointed out that “We’re not scientists” and “What we’re trying to do is make people more aware of the hundreds of scientists who are doing good work”. If 3rd party comment was deemed necessary at this juncture then it should have included at least one of those “hundreds of scientists”. Not just Matt Ridley, whose recent article in The Times that Sarah was alluding to was riddled with factual errors, amongst its other failings. See above.
One can only assume that the BBC was attempting to achieve some sort of “balance”? They failed miserably. I’m a long ex academic, but for another perspective on that failure here’s one from a practicing astrophysicist:
Note also the comments. David Hempleman-Adams wasn’t even given adequate time to fully respond to the nonsense printed in The Times and regurgitated by BBC Radio 4 before it was “Rob’s got the sports news.”
As David put it “I’m just one of the general public”. If the BBC wanted to present a balanced report a specialist in the subject should have been invited to comment. There’s loads of them gathered in London as we speak:
Arctic sea ice is in the news, but what's really going on? Join us tmrw to dig into the details with the scientists: https://t.co/E3lc2PEG3u
Why not ask one of them for their views on declining sea ice? Helen Czerski works as a science presenter for the BBC doesn’t she? She may not be a sea ice specialist, but ask her for her opinion on this charade.
To summarise, either Matt Ridley has no idea what he’s talking about or he has an agenda. In either case reporting his views without adequate “balancing” comment badly lets down BBC Radio 4 listeners. How do you intend to remedy this?
Here is the BBC’s response so far:
[Edit – September 27th]
I have now received an emailed response from the BBC. Here it is:
Thank you for contacting us regarding Radio 4’s ‘Today’ which was broadcast on 19 September.
I understand you felt that the interview with David Hempleman-Adams was of a poor quality, that you considered it inappropriate for Sarah Montague to quote from an article written by Matt Ridley and that a “specialist in the subject should have been invited to comment”.
We are naturally very sorry when we hear that members of our audience have been left disappointed with an interview. We try very hard to produce a wide range of high quality shows and services which we hope will appeal to listeners.
It is not always possible or practical to reflect all the various aspects of a subject within one individual item. Editors are charged to ensure that over a reasonable period they reflect the range of significant views, opinions and trends in their subject area.
We do not seek to denigrate any view or to promote any view. Our aim is always to provide enough information on the stories we cover and to let our listeners make up their own minds. Nevertheless, I would like to assure you that we value your feedback on this matter.
All complaints are sent to senior management and programme makers every morning and we included your points in this overnight report. These reports are among the most widely read sources of feedback in the BBC and ensures that your complaint has been seen by the right people quickly. This helps inform their decisions about current and future output.
Thank you once again for getting in touch.
BBC Complaints Team
NB This is sent from an outgoing account only which is not monitored. You cannot reply to this email address but if necessary please contact us via our webform quoting any case number we provided.
As you can probably imagine, I am far from satisfied with the Beeb’s response thus far!
[Edit – September 28th]
Shock News! I’ve received another communication from the BBC!! In fact I received it twice!!! Here is what it says:
Dear Mr. Hunt
I’m Sam Smith, Head of BBC Audience Services – thank you for getting in touch with the BBC recently.
I wonder if you’d be interested in taking part in a short survey?
It’s to learn more about how you got on, and how we can improve.
All feedback – good or bad – gets passed back to the person that handled your contact.
The survey is carried out by an independent agency called ICM. It takes around 10 minutes to complete, and you just need to click the link below or paste it into your browser:
[Link redacted]
(ICM is a member of the Market Research Society and abides by its strict code of conduct at all times. You will not receive any emails, sales calls or literature as a result of taking part in this survey, and your personal data will only be used for the purpose of helping us to understand our audiences better. If you have any difficulties with the survey, please e-mail [email protected])
Thanks again – we’d love to hear from you.
Sam Smith
Head of BBC Audience Services
Ps. It’s not possible to reply to this address, but please use one of our webforms – quoting your case number – if you need anything else.
Am I “interested in taking part in a short survey”?
[Edit – September 29th]
As luck would have it I decided that I was interested:
Them:
Please tell us in detail why you decided to contact the BBC.
Please think about what made you decide to get in touch, why this was important to you, and what you hoped would happen as a result.
Us:
Quoting from my original complaint, I have already published my thoughts on the matter:
“At this juncture you might have supposed that one or more of those “hundreds of scientists” [mentioned by David Hempleman-Adams] might have been mentioned, but you would have been wrong.”
“Should you be wondering at this juncture how the opinions of Matt Ridley are at variance with the actual facts take a look at the August 29th article of his in The Times of London that Sarah Montague was referring to.”
“To summarise, either Matt Ridley has no idea what he’s talking about or he has an agenda. In either case reporting his views without adequate “balancing” comment badly lets down BBC Radio 4 listeners. How do you intend to remedy this?”
I “hoped for” a substantive answer to that final question. I have yet to receive one!
Them:
When you decided to contact the BBC, what did you think would happen next?
Please think about who you expected to respond, what information you expected the response to provide and what you expected would happen as a result.
Us:
Based on my past experience I expected another “canned” reply and no substantive response:
Thus far my exceedingly limited expectations have been fulfilled exactly!
Them:
Please tell us a bit more about what you thought about the response you received.
You may like to think about the language used, the tone of the response, what information it gave you, and what you thought was good about it.
Us:
See my previous responses.
There was nothing good about it.
Them:
What, if anything, could have been better about the response you received?
Please think about any aspect which could be improved – for example the tone of the response, the level of detail it gave, and anything you thought was missing.
Us:
The novelty of these questions is wearing off.
See my previous responses.
A substantive answer to my final question would have improved the BBC’s response.
Them:
How would you rate the response you received on the following attributes? Please rate each attribute out of 10 where 1 is ‘strongly disagree’ and 10 means ‘strongly agree’.
Please remember we are asking you to rate the specific response you received and not any other aspect of the BBC, such as its programming.
Us:
Them:
Finally, are there any other comments you would like to make about your contact experience with the BBC that we haven’t covered, or any comments you would like to make about this survey?
Us:
Yes. I’d like to ask two questions:
1) What is the point of all the “intrusive” questions I’ve just been asked?
2) Why hasn’t the BBC provided a substantive answer to the final question in my original complaint?
Them:
Thank you for taking the time to complete this questionnaire.
To exit the questionnaire you can either navigate to another website or close this window.
The Central Arctic has of course already been battered by the Great Arctic Cyclone(s) of August 2016. The minimum sea ice extent has been called by the NSIDC, with a slight proviso:
Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss.
Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.
On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles).
Now, however, yet another cyclone is raging in the Central Arctic. According to Environment Canada this one is already down to a mean sea level pressure of 975 hPa:
As our regular readers will be well aware, at this time of year strong winds beget large swells. On this occasion it looks as though Barrow will get another battering, as well as the remaining and refreezing sea ice. Here’s the current WaveWatch III significant wave height forecast for September 18th:
Such large swells on the surface of the Arctic Ocean don’t only physically break up the sea ice. Last September scientists aboard the University of Alaska’s research icebreaker Sikuliaq observed the effects of a similar storm in the Beaufort Sea. According to Jennifer MacKinnon, Chief Scientist on the ArcticMix voyage:
One of the funny things about the Arctic is that there’s a reservoir of heat beneath the surface here.
So the more the wind is blowing on the ocean, the more it’s mixing this heat upwards. Which is bringing warmer water to the surface at a pretty rapid rate, warming the surface and accelerating the rate at which this ice is melting.
And if storms like this continue, as there’s more open water, more storms mean more exposed surface. It will not only melt the ice in the summer, but delay the onset of fall ice formation and accelerate the onset of spring ice melting.
In October 2015 the Sikuliaq was back in the Beaufort Sea observing the effect of storm swells on refreezing sea ice. Here’s a report from Chief Scientist Jim Thomson:
A strong easterly wind event came through that built large waves — waves that got to almost five meters in height. And the winds were something like up to thirty knots. And these waves were coming into the newly forming ice and making pancake ice.
There was a very warm layer of water 20 meters down beneath the surface. And these waves coming in were enough to drive additional mixing and bring that warm water up from the subsurface and that warm water melted the ice and changed that balance happening at the surface.
As if all that wasn’t already enough to worry about look who’s waiting in the wings. Tropical Storm Ian is heading towards the Arctic Circle at a rate of knots, even as we speak:
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016
AKZ202-171230-
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF BARROW…PITT POINT…NULAVIK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT…
.WIND… WESTERLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.SURF HEIGHT… 2 TO 5 FT.
.SURF TEMP… 36 DEGREES F.
.TIDES… LOW SAT 0826 AM -0.03
HIGH SAT 0230 PM 0.38
LOW SAT 0846 PM -0.02
HIGH SUN 0250 AM 0.38
…HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY…
* WAVES AND SURF…WAVES TO 10 FEET BREAKING JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH TIDES UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
* ICE…WITH ICE JUST OFF SHORE FROM BARROW…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHUNKS OF SEA ICE WILL WASH UP ON SHORE EVEN WITH WINDS PREDICTED TO BE AT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE.
* WINDS…WEST 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* TIMING…HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…HIGH SURF WILL WASH TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH AND CAUSE BEACH EROSION. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE AND SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH LIMITING TRAVEL NEAR THE BEACH. PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE BOATS AND PERSONAL PROPERTY INLAND FROM THE BEACH.
[Edit – September 19th]
Somewhat belatedly, before:
and after:
the storm images from the Barrow webcam, which has just burst back into life. Plus an image of the cyclone from on high:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
Today we bring a positive plethora of “Shock News!”. Starting with sea ice, yesterday Anthony Watts published an article on WUWT about the 2016 Arctic minimum extent. That’s not too surprising perhaps, but what’s shocking is that included one of Wipneus’ graphs of Arctic sea ice AREA that has been gracing our very own Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page since Anthony mocked us for not having such a thing. His take on this momentous event?
All of the data I’ve looked at agrees, Arctic sea ice is now on the upswing, and in a big way.
This graph from Wipneus shows the abruptness of the change.
Here it is, in all its glory:
What’s not in the least surprising is that Anthony failed to provide a link to the source of the graph, and that our polite request for that to be corrected remains invisible took a long time to be approved over at Watts Up With That. Here it is, in all its ignominy:
As if that isn’t enough to cope with for one day, there was even bigger shock yesterday. Tony Heller stated:
which is accompanied by a screenshot from an Independent article which reads as follows:
One of Britain’s leading climate change sceptics – former Chancellor Nigel Lawson – has admitted that humans are causing global warming.
Speaking to the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee, Lord Lawson said he did not “question for a moment” that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas.
And he accepted there was “huge agreement” among scientists that it was having “some effect” on the atmosphere.
But the former Conservative Cabinet minister argued it would be “crazy” for the UK to try to stop burning the fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide, claiming countries like China were simply carrying on doing so.
Lord Lawson founded the Global Warming Policy Foundation in 2009 to oppose attempts to reduce the rise in temperatures and has emerged as one of Britain’s leading sceptics.
Here’s a recording of Nigel Lawson versus Adair Turner yesterday, testifying before the Economic Affairs Committee:
It seems as if the “97% consensus” on “anthropogenic global warming” is now at least 97.1%. I cannot help but wonder when Anthony Watts will reveal the news to his faithful followers? Meanwhile most of Tony’s many merry minions are unhappy bunnies this morning. 2015 “New Einstein” award winner Gail Combs complains:
The biggest problem is with that statement he just betrayed every skeptic and agreed that we are all tinfoil hat Den1ers.
It does not matter what else he added. That ‘sound bite’ is a HUGE WIN for the other side. Add the Ship of Fools ‘win’ and they will bash us into the ground.
I am sorry Tony, but it is a complete PR disaster especially right before the US elections.
As you well know this has never been about science. Our side plays by the Marquess of Queensberry Rules, their side are dirty street fighters using Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals and lie and cheat and browbeat at every turn. So their side wins EVERY D@MN TIME!
Mr. Heller comments:
I completely agree with [Nigel Lawson]. Do you consider me to be a “real skeptic” ?
Answers on a virtual postcard please, in the space provided below.
The Polar Ocean Challenge team issued a press release last night. This is what it said:
The Polar Ocean Challenge successfully completed their quest to sail the North East Passage and North West Passage in one season. The North West Passage was completed in an astonishing 14 days due to the fact that it was almost totally ice free. They encountered ice only twice in their 1800 mile NW Passage part of the voyage. This highlights an extraordinary loss of sea ice in the Arctic in the 30 years that David Hempleman-Adams has been coming to the area. He said, ‘whilst we are all delighted to have succeeded, it is extremely worrying to see this lack of ice so starkly‘ The objective of the expedition was to raise awareness of the change in the fragile climate in the Arctic. They left Lancaster Sound at the end of the NW Passage at 19.18 UTC on 12th September and are headed for Greenland.
This seems likely to cause much gnashing of teeth in certain quarters, where it is claimed that:
The S/V NORTHABOUT has failed to cross the Pacific Ocean Arctic Circle in the Bering Strait as the official starting line to validate their Northwest Passage attempt. You cannot say you climbed Mount Everest by just reaching high camp – you must summit. You don’t ride a bicycle in the Tour de France without starting and finishing over the course in the designated places. Likewise, you must cross BOTH the Pacific Ocean Arctic Circle in the Bering Strait and the Atlantic Ocean Arctic Circle in Davis Strait to validate a Northwest Passage.
In Northabout’s defence I pointed out that:
Perhaps the Polar Ocean Challenge team have other priorities than gaining an entry on that particular list?
If you’re planning a single season circumnavigation a diversion via Provideniya or Nome doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, rules or no rules.
but nobody else seemed to take that view!
Today they also pointed out on their Twitter feed that they are a:
Pressing on the crew of Northabout are now approaching halfway across Baffin Bay:
Her crew are trying to reach Upernavik in Greenland before the impending storm gets too bad. Here’s our own WaveWatch III based forecast for tomorrow afternoon:
Today Tonight and Wednesday Wind light increasing to south 15 knots early this evening and to south 20 late this evening. Wind backing to southeast 25 overnight then diminishing to light Wednesday afternoon.
Waves
Today Tonight and Wednesday Seas 1 metre building to 2 after midnight.
Thursday
Wind light increasing to northwest 15 knots in the afternoon then veering to north 20 late in the day.
Friday
Wind north 30 knots diminishing to north 20.
I seem to recall that 30 knot winds are best avoided! After Upernavik Northabout will head for Nuuk further south in Greenland and then across the North Atlantic back to Bristol, where she started her voyage back in June. It is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility that there will be winds of 30 knots and more to contend with on that final leg of the Polar Ocean Challenge!
[Edit – September 14th]
Northabout has obviously not managed to escape the storm entirely. Ben Edwards reports today:
I hate this part of a journey. Yesterday as I came off watch we were scheduled to arrive about midnight tonight. I hate that anyway because you get the so close yet so far feeling. But typically as I came off watch the wind picked up, moved to an unhelpful angle and created the worst sea state we’ve had since the Chuckchi Sea. We’re still supposed to arrive about two in the morning but it will make the next twenty two hours really horrible. Not that our arrival time mattes too much, we can’t go in till it’s light anyway.
Gale from south and southeast, 13 to 18 m/s. From the western part decreasing and becoming south and southwest, 5 to 10 m/s, in northern part locally 13 m/s. Thursday gradually in eastern part south and southeast, 8 to 13 m/s, but in western part cyclonic variable, up to 10 m/s. Especially in northern part locally rain, sleet or snow with moderate to poor visibility, otherwise good visibility.
Significant wave height: 3,5 m. Swells: 3 m.
Many icebergs and growlers in the eastern part along the coast, otherwise few icebergs and growlers.
Upernavik is slightly south of there, but nonetheless Ben will have a few more uncomfortable hours, and Northabout may yet meet some more ice before her crew set foot on dry land once again:
[Edit – September 15th]
Northabout has just arrived in Upernavik:
[Edit – September 16th]
It looks as though Northabout has just left Upernavik, and is now en route to Nuuk:
As we expected, it was a long night last night as the big swell and Northernly winds continued to sweep us along from Upernavik, big surf waves behind us breaking under us, Northabout became a little Hawwai five o. We made our way along the coastline through amazing beautiful icebergs created by glaciers at Ilulissat.
The icebergs were between the size of telly to the size of a house to the size of a grand hotel. They were breaking up, and once or twice right in front of us creating lots a small bergs and ice chunks that don’t float so high above the water and so are difficult to spot especially with a large 10 foot swell, they disappear and reappear in the water around us.
[Edit – September 19th]
Northabout has just left Ilulissat, en route for Nuuk:
[Edit – September 22nd]
Northabout has crossed the Arctic Circle and has just reached Nuuk, the capital of Greenland:
En route from Ilulissat her crew have seen some amazing sights:
The Swedish icebreaker Oden and the Canadian icebreaker Louis S. St. Laurent recently met up at the North Pole on a joint scientific expedition. To be more precise the Oden’s Captain’s log recorded her position at 11:03 UTC on August 22nd as N 89° 59,998´ W 046° 40,558´.
and then take a look at his newly extended swimming pool:
What could be more refreshing after a long voyage than a quick dip followed by a Piña colada by the pool?
Santa’s secret summer swimming pool is obviously big enough this year to accommodate all the icebreakers and nuclear submarines on the planet. All his little helpers have a giant pool of their very own too:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole on September 8th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
Looking at the latest Eastern Arctic ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, I don’t think the crew [of Northabout] will exactly be shitting themselves.
I’m more interested in what a certain Tony Heller will be coming out with next.
It seems as though a certain Tony Heller and his many merry minions are already shitting themselves at the prospect of the plucky little yacht Northabout NOT getting “trapped in ice”. Hence we can provide this preliminary report on the astonishing ignorance of Tony and his faithful flock concerning all things Arctic. For the present we will confine ourselves to Mr. Heller’s latest missive on the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition, wittily entitled but strangely capitalised:
“we are in a race against time before the freeze”
I blogged the same thing yesterday, and the usual hysterical alarmists showed up complaining.
As luck would have it I blogged the same thing recently, and in actual fact it’s the usual hysterical denialists who have showed up both here and there to pen over a hundred comments and counting. Let’s take a look at a select few of them shall we?
For a reason known only to herself our old friend (and “New Einstein” award winner!) Gail Combsposted the weather forecast for Resolute yesterday, but without any link to her source(s):
TONIGHT: Saturday Night 09/10 80% / 1-3 in of snow
Snow showers early will become steadier snow overnight. Low 28 °F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.
Then today Lawrence13 posts what purports to be the weather forecast for Isachsen whilst simultaneously suggesting that Isachsen is just around the corner from Resolute, which of course it is not:
Thing to note though, is that the northern part of the Northwest Passage was blocked by multi-year ice – foremost the western exit – FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER, and was even not passable by ice breakers.
Needless to say Andy didn’t trouble to provide a link to his source. I therefore took the liberty of revealing to him the latest and greatest Great White Con Northwest Passage video:
He appears to be convinced that Isachsen is somewhere on the “main” route through the Northwest Passage. I took the trouble to inform him that:
According to the Environment Canada Climate Severity Index, Isachsen and the surrounding area has the worst weather in Canada with a CSI severity value of 99 out of a possible 100.
For some strange reason the Polar Ocean Challenge team are not planning on sailing past Isachsen any time soon!
His reply?
Nothing strange about it at all, Jimbo.
The Satellite Sea Ice charts told them they had NO CHANCE through the main North West Passage, so they snuck around through Cambridge Bay.
Andy then doubled down by throwing down all his gauntlets and issuing this challenge to Snow White’s manhood:
FFs, Jimbo, you have GOT to be joking !!!
Come on, coward, take my challenge.
Next year, WITHOUT sea ice charts, FOSSIL FUELS, or satellite navigation..
Do you fancy your chances surfing calving glaciers against GMac?
It’s hard to be sure, but I don’t think he does:
So, refusing to take up the challenge.
Coward.
There’s no answer to that! Or is there?
Please feel free to let me know when you want to be fitted for your polar bear suit Andy.
As you may be able to imagine, there’s plenty more dumbness to be discovered where that lot came from. As the day wears on and as time allows expect more amusing anecdotes from the depths of the cryodenialosphere.
[Edit – September 13th]
Not content with the dumbness quotient displayed by his faithful follows at the Blog of Fools, “Steven Goddard” has taken to Twitter to harangue poor defenceless Snow White. Here is a brief extract from his Gish gallop around the North Pole:
[Edit – September 14th]
Not content with haranguing Snow White about the Arctic “Steve”/Tony and merry Mendy fulminate about flash flooding in Cornwall & Manchester. Allegedly it’s all the media’s fault.
[Edit – September 19th]
Tony Heller has blocked poor defenceless Snow White on Twitter, so she cannot include his Tweets in her Storifys. Please feel free to try and work out where this one fits in the grand scheme of things:
Only a complete moron would conflate a wave with "rising sea levels" https://t.co/QeeYOJHLZr
It seems self evident that Americans have no sense of humour. They can’t even spell the word correctly. What’s more they also seem not to have the slightest clue about flash floods on this side of the Atlantic, preferring instead to rant about (the lack of) sea level rise on the shores of the “Land of the Free”:
Believe it or not, there’s plenty more where that lot came from.
No is the obvious answer just at the moment, since the plucky little yacht is currently parked at a pontoon in Tuktoyaktuk. However actual facts aren’t sufficient to stop Tony Heller suggesting that Andrew Freedman suggested on Mashable that Mark Serreze of the NSIDC said that such a feat is feasible:
Mark “Arctic Is Screaming” Serreze says the Ship of Fools could sail to the North Pole.
In an interview with Mashable, Serreze said sea ice coverage across the different regions of the Arctic has fallen dramatically in association with a series of unusually powerful summertime Arctic storms during August.
That much is certainly true, as we here at Great White Con have documented in detail. Mr. Heller however highlights this section of Mr. Freedman’s article:
In fact, if they want to, the Hempleman-Adams and the rest of the ship’s crew could actually sail nearly all the way to the North Pole, since sea ice cover is largely absent to about 86 degrees north, according to Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado.
It’s not out of the question that the North Pole will become a geographical marker in open water, rather than ice cover, sometime in the next few weeks.
Serreze called this situation “pretty darned unusual.”
Let’s examine the facts about this “pretty darned unusual” situation shall we? Here is the latest high resolution AMSR2 visualisation of Arctic sea ice concentration:
Can you see the stretch of open water leading all the way from the East Siberian Sea, where Northabout was a couple of weeks ago, to 86 degrees north? Apparently Tony Heller and his faithful followers cannot! Not only that, but also supposedly:
A NASA image [shows that] the North Pole is indeed encased in Thick ice right now.
Here’s a (somewhat foggy) NASA image of the North Pole right now:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the North Pole on September 3rd 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
and for good measure here’s a (somewhat foggy) NASA image from 86 degrees north in the Central Arctic Basin right now:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Central Arctic on September 3rd 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
Need I say more?
[Edit – September 4th]
Today Terra offers a glimpse of the Greenland side of the North Pole:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the North Pole on September 4th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
[Edit – September 5th]
Today Aqua offers us a view of what’s left of the sea ice on the Siberian side of the North Pole:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole on September 5th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
[Edit – September 9th]
SHOCK NEWS!!!
Tony Heller has just posted an accurate image of the state of the sea ice near the North Pole! Here it is:
The accompanying text is nonsense of course:
The Ship Of Fools is facing a -10C weather forecast in five days, which would be impassable. They better put their fossil fuel powered pedal to the metal and get out of there fast, so that they can go back to Bristol and lie about the ice.
Meanwhile, professional fraudster Mark Serreze said last week they could sail to the North Pole
Needless to say Tony doesn’t provide a link to his source. Try this one and then have a good look around on NASA Worldview.
September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:
I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?
I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:
Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:
Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?
[Edit – September 3rd]
Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:
It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:
and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:
As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:
Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.
[Edit – September 4th]
An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:
[Edit – September 11th]
Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:
A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:
Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.
[Edit – September 14th]
The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:
Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:
which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:
The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:
Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!
[Edit – September 15th]
With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Need I say more?
[Edit – September 20th]
The September cyclone has now done its worst:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:
2016 Minimum Milestones
September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²
September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²
September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.
September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²
September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²
After the briefest of stops in Elson Lagoon behind Point Barrow Northabout is on the move once again:
She’s currently heading out into the Beaufort Sea before following in the giant footsteps of the cruise liner Crystal Serenity in the direction of the Amundsen Gulf and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Here’s the United States National Weather Service’s current ice chart for Alaskan waters:
There looks to be far less to worry about ice wise on the next leg of the Polar Ocean Challenge than on the previous one! The weather forecast isn’t too bad either, with high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and a fair bit of sunshine. Here’s the Weather Underground forecast for Ulukhaktok, Crystal Serenity’s first port of call in the CAA:
There is currently a “small craft advisory” warning in effect for the Beaufort Sea coast:
CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
207 PM AKDT MON AUG 29 2016
…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON…
TONIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.
TUE
E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
TUE NIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
WED
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.
WED NIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.
THU
NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
THU NIGHT
NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.
FRI
N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.
SAT
N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.
All in all it looks like fairly plain sailing for the foreseeable future, with only occasional moderate headwinds to contend with.
[Edit – August 30th]
It seems my “fairly plain sailing” conclusion was overly hasty. According to the latest “Ship’s Log“:
The weather forecast is pants. A 30/35 knot headwind along the coast . No one has the appetite for it, so we are heading North, slacker winds, staysail out, still a choppy sea and uncomfortable, but not as bad as 30 knots. Hopefully no ice tonight on my watch.
This is the end result:
As Phil points out below:
Our next stop along the North West Passage is Tuktoyaktuk. That’s when we can use a pontoon, get rid of our rubbish, fill the tanks, do the laundry and have a shower. 500nm away.
[Edit – August 31st]
The Polar Ocean Challenge team report via Twitter:
They have some more to carry out in Tuk too. Despite the great “groove” displayed above Ben Edwards reports that:
Joy of joys, the auto-helm’s stopped working. Dad (Steve Edwards, crew), thinks he knows why so we’ll hopefully be able to fix it in Tuk. In the meantime we’re back to helming by hand. This is a mixed blessing, on the one hand it’s really irritating to have to helm in large swells and with a strong headwind because any movement you make is at first ignored, and then exaggerated by, the wind. So it’s hard to keep a decent track and it makes it harder to look out for ice. On the other hand, moving and putting effort into the steering keeps you warm which is nice and it means you don’t have to put as many clothes on which is also nice because when you go down stairs and it’s twenty four degrees it can get quite uncomfortable.
We all had our job lists, ice lights, bilge pumps, laundry, shopping but the man who gets the Vodka Salute is unquestionably Steve.
I dropped him off wth Willard. Two peas in a pod. They made a broken Pilot Spigot. That sounds quite easy but it took the whole day in a machine shop in a container, working to fine tolerances, and many modifications. Fitting it in the bowels of the Lazzerette in cold weather and driving rain. It worked first time. Brilliant effort.
Issued 07:00 AM MDT 04 September 2016
Today Tonight and Monday
Wind – Northwest 15 knots diminishing to light late this morning then becoming northwest 15 Monday morning.
Waves
Seas – 1 metre.
Weather & Visibility – Chance of showers changing to periods of rain near noon then to chance of showers tonight and Monday. Fog patches dissipating early this evening.
My famous last words? Plain sailing by the look of it!
[Edit – September 5th]
Northabout has just rounded Cape Bathurst, the northernmost point of mainland Northwest Territories:
I wonder if her crew will take a close look at the nearby Smoking Hills?
[Edit – September 6th]
Northabout gave the Smoking Hills a miss and headed strait for Cape Parry. She has already crossed the Amundsen Gulf and is heading into the Dolphin & Union Strait:
In light of the lack of ice and in the spirit of saving time we’ve decided not to stop in Cambridge Bay or Pond Inlet and go straight on to Upernavik in Greenland before doing our crew change. Looking at the ice maps at the moment it seems we’ll be able to get through with little or no trouble, though this is almost bound to change, if it stays that way we’ll reach Upernavik in about fourteen days. I’m looking forward to it!
This morning Northabout is rapidly approaching the western entrance to Bellot Strait:
Their stated intentions are to head past Pond Inlet and across Baffin Bay to Upernavik in Greenland. Assuming they initially follow the same route as Crystal Serenity they will soon to need to pick their way past some bergy bits in Prince Regent Inlet before negotiating some currently “wispy” areas of sea ice as they enter Lancaster Sound. Here is the current Canadian Ice Service chart for the area:
plus a rather cloudy “visual” image:
The current weather forecast for Pond Inlet doesn’t suggest the parts of the Northwest Passage still on Northabout’s route are going to start refreezing just yet:
Currently there is an obvious passage past the existing ice, but that may of course have changed by the time Northabout gets there.
[Edit – September 10th PM]
Northabout has just emerged safely from the eastern end of Bellot Strait:
I wonder if her crew will stop to make a new entry in the visitors book at Fort Ross?
[Edit – September 11th]
Here’s the latest CIS ice chart:
The gap between the coast and the yellow area of 4-6/10 concentration ice has closed considerably, and there’s now a broad expanse of 1-3/10 ice which Northabout may be forced to try and wend her way through. A change in wind direction would come in very handy, and that’s just what the ECMWF forecast at Windyty is suggesting for Sunday 11th:
Just what the doctor ordered?
[Edit – September 11th PM]
Video shot from Northabout’s drone of her ice-free passage through Bellot Strait:
However the passage from Prince Regent Inlet into Lancaster Sound has not proved to be ice-free!
Northabout is obviously endeavouring to skirt around the eastern edge of the 4-6/10 old ice in her path:
Today’s CIS ice concentration chart suggests there isn’t much room to spare:
The stage of development chart does reveal some new ice, but it’s well to the north of Northabout’s route through Lancaster Sound to Pond Inlet:
Somewhat belatedly, here’s a Sentinel 1A synthetic aperture radar image of the sea ice Northabout is squeezing past as we speak:
[Edit – September 12th]
Northabout has emerged safely into Lancaster Sound, and is bypassing Pond Inlet in order to head strait across Baffin Bay:
Here are a couple of videos of some remnants of sea ice on her once again eastward travels:
There are several more on the Polar Ocean Challenge web site.
With all that ice now safely behind her Northabout has new dangers to face. Wind and waves! Let’s take a look at the WaveWatch III “surf forecast” for Baffin Bay over the next few days. A low pressure area is heading in Northabout’s direction from across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. By Wednesday morning (UTC) the resultant wind field looks like this:
By Wednesday afternoon those winds of around 15 m/s will have produced waves in Baffin Bay that are forecast to have reached over 3 meters high:
and what’s more they won’t be just wind waves. A modest swell with a period of over 12 seconds is predicted too:
I’m sure the Polar Ocean Challenge team will be doing their level best to be safely on the opposite side of Baffin Bay by the time the worst of the weather arrives!
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