September Arctic Cyclone Alert!

September 16, 2016WavesBeaufort Sea, Extent, Ian-2016, NSIDC, Sikuliaq, Waves, WaveWatchJim Hunt

The Central Arctic has of course already been battered by the Great Arctic Cyclone(s) of August 2016. The minimum sea ice extent has been called by the NSIDC, with a slight proviso:

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles).

Now, however, yet another cyclone is raging in the Central Arctic. According to Environment Canada this one is already down to a mean sea level pressure of 975 hPa:

As our regular readers will be well aware, at this time of year strong winds beget large swells. On this occasion it looks as though Barrow will get another battering, as well as the remaining and refreezing sea ice. Here’s the current WaveWatch III significant wave height forecast for September 18th:

Such large swells on the surface of the Arctic Ocean don’t only physically break up the sea ice. Last September scientists aboard the University of Alaska’s research icebreaker Sikuliaq observed the effects of a similar storm in the Beaufort Sea. According to Jennifer MacKinnon, Chief Scientist on the ArcticMix voyage:

One of the funny things about the Arctic is that there’s a reservoir of heat beneath the surface here.

So the more the wind is blowing on the ocean, the more it’s mixing this heat upwards. Which is bringing warmer water to the surface at a pretty rapid rate, warming the surface and accelerating the rate at which this ice is melting.

And if storms like this continue, as there’s more open water, more storms mean more exposed surface. It will not only melt the ice in the summer, but delay the onset of fall ice formation and accelerate the onset of spring ice melting.

In October 2015 the Sikuliaq was back in the Beaufort Sea observing the effect of storm swells on refreezing sea ice. Here’s a report from Chief Scientist Jim Thomson:

A strong easterly wind event came through that built large waves — waves that got to almost five meters in height. And the winds were something like up to thirty knots. And these waves were coming into the newly forming ice and making pancake ice.

There was a very warm layer of water 20 meters down beneath the surface. And these waves coming in were enough to drive additional mixing and bring that warm water up from the subsurface and that warm water melted the ice and changed that balance happening at the surface.

As if all that wasn’t already enough to worry about look who’s waiting in the wings. Tropical Storm Ian is heading towards the Arctic Circle at a rate of knots, even as we speak:

[Edit – September 17th]

Here is the official Barrow surf forecast from the National Weather Service:

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

AKZ202-171230-
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF BARROW…PITT POINT…NULAVIK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT…
.WIND… WESTERLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.SURF HEIGHT… 2 TO 5 FT.
.SURF TEMP… 36 DEGREES F.
.TIDES… LOW SAT 0826 AM -0.03
HIGH SAT 0230 PM 0.38
LOW SAT 0846 PM -0.02
HIGH SUN 0250 AM 0.38

There is also a severe weather warning in place:

…HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY…

* WAVES AND SURF…WAVES TO 10 FEET BREAKING JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH TIDES UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

* ICE…WITH ICE JUST OFF SHORE FROM BARROW…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHUNKS OF SEA ICE WILL WASH UP ON SHORE EVEN WITH WINDS PREDICTED TO BE AT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE.

* WINDS…WEST 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING…HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* IMPACTS…HIGH SURF WILL WASH TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH AND CAUSE BEACH EROSION. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE AND SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH LIMITING TRAVEL NEAR THE BEACH. PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE BOATS AND PERSONAL PROPERTY INLAND FROM THE BEACH.

[Edit – September 19th]

Somewhat belatedly, before:

and after:

the storm images from the Barrow webcam, which has just burst back into life. Plus an image of the cyclone from on high:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite

Shock News! The Worms Have Turned!!

September 15, 2016SatireAnthony Watts, Area, Gail Combs, GWPF, Nigel Lawson, Ship of Fools, Shock News, Tony HellerJim Hunt

Today we bring a positive plethora of “Shock News!”. Starting with sea ice, yesterday Anthony Watts published an article on WUWT about the 2016 Arctic minimum extent. That’s not too surprising perhaps, but what’s shocking is that included one of Wipneus’ graphs of Arctic sea ice AREA that has been gracing our very own Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page since Anthony mocked us for not having such a thing. His take on this momentous event?

All of the data I’ve looked at agrees, Arctic sea ice is now on the upswing, and in a big way.

This graph from Wipneus shows the abruptness of the change.

Here it is, in all its glory:

What’s not in the least surprising is that Anthony failed to provide a link to the source of the graph, and that our polite request for that to be corrected ~~remains invisible~~ took a long time to be approved over at Watts Up With That. Here it is, in all its ignominy:

As if that isn’t enough to cope with for one day, there was even bigger shock yesterday. Tony Heller stated:

“Effective Skeptics Don’t Reject Basic Physics“

which is accompanied by a screenshot from an Independent article which reads as follows:

One of Britain’s leading climate change sceptics – former Chancellor Nigel Lawson – has admitted that humans are causing global warming.

Speaking to the House of Lords’ Economic Affairs Committee, Lord Lawson said he did not “question for a moment” that carbon dioxide was a greenhouse gas.

And he accepted there was “huge agreement” among scientists that it was having “some effect” on the atmosphere.

But the former Conservative Cabinet minister argued it would be “crazy” for the UK to try to stop burning the fossil fuels that produce carbon dioxide, claiming countries like China were simply carrying on doing so.

Lord Lawson founded the Global Warming Policy Foundation in 2009 to oppose attempts to reduce the rise in temperatures and has emerged as one of Britain’s leading sceptics.

Here’s a recording of Nigel Lawson versus Adair Turner yesterday, testifying before the Economic Affairs Committee:

It seems as if the “97% consensus” on “anthropogenic global warming” is now at least 97.1%. I cannot help but wonder when Anthony Watts will reveal the news to his faithful followers? Meanwhile most of Tony’s many merry minions are unhappy bunnies this morning. 2015 “New Einstein” award winner Gail Combs complains:

The biggest problem is with that statement he just betrayed every skeptic and agreed that we are all tinfoil hat Den1ers.

It does not matter what else he added. That ‘sound bite’ is a HUGE WIN for the other side. Add the Ship of Fools ‘win’ and they will bash us into the ground.

I am sorry Tony, but it is a complete PR disaster especially right before the US elections.

As you well know this has never been about science. Our side plays by the Marquess of Queensberry Rules, their side are dirty street fighters using Alinsky’s Rules for Radicals and lie and cheat and browbeat at every turn. So their side wins EVERY D@MN TIME!

Mr. Heller comments:

I completely agree with [Nigel Lawson]. Do you consider me to be a “real skeptic” ?

Answers on a virtual postcard please, in the space provided below.

Northabout Heads for Home

September 13, 2016ExpeditionsAurora, Bristol, David Hempleman-Adams, DMI, Ilulissat, Jakobshavn, Northabout, Nuuk, NWP, UpernavikJim Hunt

The Polar Ocean Challenge team issued a press release last night. This is what it said:

The Polar Ocean Challenge successfully completed their quest to sail the North East Passage and North West Passage in one season. The North West Passage was completed in an astonishing 14 days due to the fact that it was almost totally ice free. They encountered ice only twice in their 1800 mile NW Passage part of the voyage. This highlights an extraordinary loss of sea ice in the Arctic in the 30 years that David Hempleman-Adams has been coming to the area. He said, ‘whilst we are all delighted to have succeeded, it is extremely worrying to see this lack of ice so starkly‘ The objective of the expedition was to raise awareness of the change in the fragile climate in the Arctic. They left Lancaster Sound at the end of the NW Passage at 19.18 UTC on 12th September and are headed for Greenland.

This seems likely to cause much gnashing of teeth in certain quarters, where it is claimed that:

The S/V NORTHABOUT has failed to cross the Pacific Ocean Arctic Circle in the Bering Strait as the official starting line to validate their Northwest Passage attempt. You cannot say you climbed Mount Everest by just reaching high camp – you must summit. You don’t ride a bicycle in the Tour de France without starting and finishing over the course in the designated places. Likewise, you must cross BOTH the Pacific Ocean Arctic Circle in the Bering Strait and the Atlantic Ocean Arctic Circle in Davis Strait to validate a Northwest Passage.

In Northabout’s defence I pointed out that:

Perhaps the Polar Ocean Challenge team have other priorities than gaining an entry on that particular list?

If you’re planning a single season circumnavigation a diversion via Provideniya or Nome doesn’t make a whole lot of sense, rules or no rules.

but nobody else seemed to take that view!

Today they also pointed out on their Twitter feed that they are a:

British led expedition, Russian skipper, Russian, Irish, American, British, Norwegian crew, Irish boat #Northabout pic.twitter.com/WqMIr3Ue26

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) September 13, 2016

Pressing on the crew of Northabout are now approaching halfway across Baffin Bay:

Her crew are trying to reach Upernavik in Greenland before the impending storm gets too bad. Here’s our own WaveWatch III based forecast for tomorrow afternoon:

and here’s the official Environment Canada forecast for East Baffin:

Issued 05:30 AM EDT 13 September 2016

Winds

Today Tonight and Wednesday Wind light increasing to south 15 knots early this evening and to south 20 late this evening. Wind backing to southeast 25 overnight then diminishing to light Wednesday afternoon.

Waves

Today Tonight and Wednesday Seas 1 metre building to 2 after midnight.

Thursday

Wind light increasing to northwest 15 knots in the afternoon then veering to north 20 late in the day.

Friday

Wind north 30 knots diminishing to north 20.

I seem to recall that 30 knot winds are best avoided! After Upernavik Northabout will head for Nuuk further south in Greenland and then across the North Atlantic back to Bristol, where she started her voyage back in June. It is certainly not beyond the bounds of possibility that there will be winds of 30 knots and more to contend with on that final leg of the Polar Ocean Challenge!

[Edit – September 14th]

Northabout has obviously not managed to escape the storm entirely. Ben Edwards reports today:

I hate this part of a journey. Yesterday as I came off watch we were scheduled to arrive about midnight tonight. I hate that anyway because you get the so close yet so far feeling. But typically as I came off watch the wind picked up, moved to an unhelpful angle and created the worst sea state we’ve had since the Chuckchi Sea. We’re still supposed to arrive about two in the morning but it will make the next twenty two hours really horrible. Not that our arrival time mattes too much, we can’t go in till it’s light anyway.

The Danish Meteorological Institute marine forecast for Qimusseriarsuaq (Melville Bay) states:

Gale from south and southeast, 13 to 18 m/s. From the western part decreasing and becoming south and southwest, 5 to 10 m/s, in northern part locally 13 m/s. Thursday gradually in eastern part south and southeast, 8 to 13 m/s, but in western part cyclonic variable, up to 10 m/s. Especially in northern part locally rain, sleet or snow with moderate to poor visibility, otherwise good visibility.

Significant wave height: 3,5 m. Swells: 3 m.

Many icebergs and growlers in the eastern part along the coast, otherwise few icebergs and growlers.

Upernavik is slightly south of there, but nonetheless Ben will have a few more uncomfortable hours, and Northabout may yet meet some more ice before her crew set foot on dry land once again:

[Edit – September 15th]

Northabout has just arrived in Upernavik:

[Edit – September 16th]

It looks as though Northabout has just left Upernavik, and is now en route to Nuuk:

[Edit – September 18th]

Northabout is now moored at Ilulissat:

That’s very near the mouth of Ilulissat Icefjord which leads to the famous Jakobshavn Glacier:

Perhaps that’s where these icebergs came from?

According to the latest Polar Ocean Challenge log:

As we expected, it was a long night last night as the big swell and Northernly winds continued to sweep us along from Upernavik, big surf waves behind us breaking under us, Northabout became a little Hawwai five o. We made our way along the coastline through amazing beautiful icebergs created by glaciers at Ilulissat.

The icebergs were between the size of telly to the size of a house to the size of a grand hotel. They were breaking up, and once or twice right in front of us creating lots a small bergs and ice chunks that don’t float so high above the water and so are difficult to spot especially with a large 10 foot swell, they disappear and reappear in the water around us.

[Edit – September 19th]

Northabout has just left Ilulissat, en route for Nuuk:

[Edit – September 22nd]

Northabout has crossed the Arctic Circle and has just reached Nuuk, the capital of Greenland:

En route from Ilulissat her crew have seen some amazing sights:

Previous Polar Ocean Challenge articles:

Non Fiction:

“Northabout Braves the Northwest Passage”

“Northabout Races for the Date Line”

“Northabout Meets Some Serious Sea Ice”

“Northabout Bides Her Time”

“Northabout’s Great Adventure”

Satire:

“Could Northabout Sail to the North Pole?”

Fiction:

“Is the Polar Ocean Challenge About to End in Disaster?”

Santa Extends His Secret Summer Swimming Pool

September 12, 2016SatireLouis S St. Laurent, North Pole, Oden, Santa ClausJim Hunt

The Swedish icebreaker Oden and the Canadian icebreaker Louis S. St. Laurent recently met up at the North Pole on a joint scientific expedition. To be more precise the Oden’s Captain’s log recorded her position at 11:03 UTC on August 22nd as N 89° 59,998´ W 046° 40,558´.

Take a look at who was waiting for them:

and then take a look at his newly extended swimming pool:

What could be more refreshing after a long voyage than a quick dip followed by a Piña colada by the pool?

Santa’s secret summer swimming pool is obviously big enough this year to accommodate all the icebreakers and nuclear submarines on the planet. All his little helpers have a giant pool of their very own too:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole on September 8th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

Dumb and Dumberer at the Blog of Fools

September 11, 2016SatireCIS, Gail Combs, GWCABBWSC, Isachsen, Northabout, Resolute, Storify, Tony HellerJim Hunt

Our esteemed guest author “Bill the Frog” recently posed a question:

Looking at the latest Eastern Arctic ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, I don’t think the crew [of Northabout] will exactly be shitting themselves.

I’m more interested in what a certain Tony Heller will be coming out with next.

It seems as though a certain Tony Heller and his many merry minions are already shitting themselves at the prospect of the plucky little yacht Northabout NOT getting “trapped in ice”. Hence we can provide this preliminary report on the astonishing ignorance of Tony and his faithful flock concerning all things Arctic. For the present we will confine ourselves to Mr. Heller’s latest missive on the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition, wittily entitled but strangely capitalised:

“we are in a race against time before the freeze”

I blogged the same thing yesterday, and the usual hysterical alarmists showed up complaining.

As luck would have it I blogged the same thing recently, and in actual fact it’s the usual hysterical denialists who have showed up both here and there to pen over a hundred comments and counting. Let’s take a look at a select few of them shall we?

For a reason known only to herself our old friend (and “New Einstein” award winner!) Gail Combs posted the weather forecast for Resolute yesterday, but without any link to her source(s):

Resolute, Nunavut
Presently: 28 °F , wind gusts to 14 mph, cloudy

TONIGHT: Saturday Night 09/10 80% / 1-3 in of snow

Snow showers early will become steadier snow overnight. Low 28 °F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

Then today Lawrence13 posts what purports to be the weather forecast for Isachsen whilst simultaneously suggesting that Isachsen is just around the corner from Resolute, which of course it is not:

No link to his source this time either.

Meanwhile AndyG55 claims that:

Thing to note though, is that the northern part of the Northwest Passage was blocked by multi-year ice – foremost the western exit – FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER, and was even not passable by ice breakers.

Needless to say Andy didn’t trouble to provide a link to his source. I therefore took the liberty of revealing to him the latest and greatest Great White Con Northwest Passage video:

Andy’s considered response?

Yep Jimbo, one HECK OF A LOT OF SEA ICE

Wadhams was so, so wrong.

And YOU know it.

He appears to be convinced that Isachsen is somewhere on the “main” route through the Northwest Passage. I took the trouble to inform him that:

According to the Environment Canada Climate Severity Index, Isachsen and the surrounding area has the worst weather in Canada with a CSI severity value of 99 out of a possible 100.

For some strange reason the Polar Ocean Challenge team are not planning on sailing past Isachsen any time soon!

His reply?

Nothing strange about it at all, Jimbo.

The Satellite Sea Ice charts told them they had NO CHANCE through the main North West Passage, so they snuck around through Cambridge Bay.

Andy then doubled down by throwing down all his gauntlets and issuing this challenge to Snow White’s manhood:

FFs, Jimbo, you have GOT to be joking !!!

Come on, coward, take my challenge.

Next year, WITHOUT sea ice charts, FOSSIL FUELS, or satellite navigation..

… I DARE you. !!

Her timid response?

Andy – It sounds as though you’re volunteering to enter the Great White Con Arctic Basin Big Wave Surfing Competition?

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2015/02/shock-historical-news-towing-in-at-the-north-pole-in-1958/

Do you fancy your chances surfing calving glaciers against GMac?

It’s hard to be sure, but I don’t think he does:

So, refusing to take up the challenge.

Coward.

There’s no answer to that! Or is there?

Please feel free to let me know when you want to be fitted for your polar bear suit Andy.

As you may be able to imagine, there’s plenty more dumbness to be discovered where that lot came from. As the day wears on and as time allows expect more amusing anecdotes from the depths of the cryodenialosphere.

[Edit – September 13th]

Not content with the dumbness quotient displayed by his faithful follows at the Blog of Fools, “Steven Goddard” has taken to Twitter to harangue poor defenceless Snow White. Here is a brief extract from his Gish gallop around the North Pole:

[Edit – September 14th]

Not content with haranguing Snow White about the Arctic “Steve”/Tony and merry Mendy fulminate about flash flooding in Cornwall & Manchester. Allegedly it’s all the media’s fault.

[Edit – September 19th]

Tony Heller has blocked poor defenceless Snow White on Twitter, so she cannot include his Tweets in her Storifys. Please feel free to try and work out where this one fits in the grand scheme of things:

Only a complete moron would conflate a wave with "rising sea levels" https://t.co/QeeYOJHLZr

— Steve Goddard (@SteveSGoddard) September 19, 2016

It seems self evident that Americans have no sense of humour. They can’t even spell the word correctly. What’s more they also seem not to have the slightest clue about flash floods on this side of the Atlantic, preferring instead to rant about (the lack of) sea level rise on the shores of the “Land of the Free”:

Believe it or not, there’s plenty more where that lot came from.

We’ll keep you posted!

Could Northabout Sail to the North Pole?

September 3, 2016SatireAndrew Freedman, David Hempleman-Adams, Mark Serreze, North Pole, Northabout, Oden, Ship of Fools, Shock News, Tony HellerJim Hunt

No is the obvious answer just at the moment, since the plucky little yacht is currently parked at a pontoon in Tuktoyaktuk. However actual facts aren’t sufficient to stop Tony Heller suggesting that Andrew Freedman suggested on Mashable that Mark Serreze of the NSIDC said that such a feat is feasible:

Mark “Arctic Is Screaming” Serreze says the Ship of Fools could sail to the North Pole.

Tony (AKA (m)Alice) attempts to justify his scurrilous allegation by referencing Andrew’s recent article entitled “After unusual Arctic storms, sea ice coverage in region is plummeting“. According to Andrew:

In an interview with Mashable, Serreze said sea ice coverage across the different regions of the Arctic has fallen dramatically in association with a series of unusually powerful summertime Arctic storms during August.

That much is certainly true, as we here at Great White Con have documented in detail. Mr. Heller however highlights this section of Mr. Freedman’s article:

In fact, if they want to, the Hempleman-Adams and the rest of the ship’s crew could actually sail nearly all the way to the North Pole, since sea ice cover is largely absent to about 86 degrees north, according to Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) in Boulder, Colorado.

It’s not out of the question that the North Pole will become a geographical marker in open water, rather than ice cover, sometime in the next few weeks.

Serreze called this situation “pretty darned unusual.”

Let’s examine the facts about this “pretty darned unusual” situation shall we? Here is the latest high resolution AMSR2 visualisation of Arctic sea ice concentration:

Can you see the stretch of open water leading all the way from the East Siberian Sea, where Northabout was a couple of weeks ago, to 86 degrees north? Apparently Tony Heller and his faithful followers cannot! Not only that, but also supposedly:

A NASA image [shows that] the North Pole is indeed encased in Thick ice right now.

Here’s a (somewhat foggy) NASA image of the North Pole right now:

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the North Pole on September 3rd 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

and for good measure here’s a (somewhat foggy) NASA image from 86 degrees north in the Central Arctic Basin right now:

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Central Arctic on September 3rd 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite

Need I say more?

[Edit – September 4th]

Today Terra offers a glimpse of the Greenland side of the North Pole:

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the North Pole on September 4th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

[Edit – September 5th]

Today Aqua offers us a view of what’s left of the sea ice on the Siberian side of the North Pole:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole on September 5th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

[Edit – September 9th]

SHOCK NEWS!!!

Tony Heller has just posted an accurate image of the state of the sea ice near the North Pole! Here it is:

The accompanying text is nonsense of course:

The Ship Of Fools is facing a -10C weather forecast in five days, which would be impassable. They better put their fossil fuel powered pedal to the metal and get out of there fast, so that they can go back to Bristol and lie about the ice.

Meanwhile, professional fraudster Mark Serreze said last week they could sail to the North Pole

Needless to say Tony doesn’t provide a link to his source. Try this one and then have a good look around on NASA Worldview.

[Edit – September 10th]

Lord Soth on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog mentions this image of the 2016 version of Santa’s secret summer swimming pool:

Swedish icebreaker #Oden moored to ice floe at #NorthPole #CanArctic #LouisSStLaurent pic.twitter.com/5SDPbf0iTD

— Canadian Coast Guard (@CCG_GCC) August 28, 2016

The 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Metric Minima

September 2, 2016ExtentAMSR2, Bremen Uni, CT, DMI, Hamburg Uni, JAXA, NSIDC, PIOMAS, ROOS, SSMIS, Tony HellerJim Hunt

September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:

I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?

I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:

and then there’s (one of) his previous one(s), from the Danish Meteorological Institute:

Amongst the “industry standards” Cryosphere Today area is missing in action so here’s the National Snow & Ice Data Center’s 5 day average extent:

and JAXA extent:

Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:

Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?

[Edit – September 3rd]

Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:

It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:

and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:

As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:

Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.

[Edit – September 4th]

An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:

#Arctic sea ice #SeptemberMinimum approaching. Different independent satellite data sources agree on trends. pic.twitter.com/GDM812lZ9Y

— Lars Kaleschke (@seaice_de) September 4, 2016

[Edit – September 5th]

Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:

[Edit – September 11th]

Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:

A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:

Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.

[Edit – September 14th]

The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:

Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:

which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:

The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:

Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!

[Edit – September 15th]

With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:

Need I say more?

[Edit – September 20th]

The September cyclone has now done its worst:

Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:

2016 Minimum Milestones

September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²

September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²

September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.

September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²

September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²

Northabout Braves the Northwest Passage

August 29, 2016ExpeditionsBellot Strait, CAA, CIS, CPOM, Crystal Serenity, David Schroeder, David Scott Cowper, Jonathan Bamber, Malcolm Roberts, Northabout, NWP, Peter Wadhams, Pond Inlet, Sentinel, Steven Goddard, Ulukhaktok, Upernavik, WaveWatchJim Hunt

After the briefest of stops in Elson Lagoon behind Point Barrow Northabout is on the move once again:

She’s currently heading out into the Beaufort Sea before following in the giant footsteps of the cruise liner Crystal Serenity in the direction of the Amundsen Gulf and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Here’s the United States National Weather Service’s current ice chart for Alaskan waters:

There looks to be far less to worry about ice wise on the next leg of the Polar Ocean Challenge than on the previous one! The weather forecast isn’t too bad either, with high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and a fair bit of sunshine. Here’s the Weather Underground forecast for Ulukhaktok, Crystal Serenity’s first port of call in the CAA:

There is currently a “small craft advisory” warning in effect for the Beaufort Sea coast:

CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
207 PM AKDT MON AUG 29 2016

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON…

TONIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.

TUE
E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

TUE NIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

WED
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

WED NIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

THU
NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

THU NIGHT
NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

FRI
N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

SAT
N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

All in all it looks like fairly plain sailing for the foreseeable future, with only occasional moderate headwinds to contend with.

[Edit – August 30th]

It seems my “fairly plain sailing” conclusion was overly hasty. According to the latest “Ship’s Log“:

The weather forecast is pants. A 30/35 knot headwind along the coast . No one has the appetite for it, so we are heading North, slacker winds, staysail out, still a choppy sea and uncomfortable, but not as bad as 30 knots. Hopefully no ice tonight on my watch.

This is the end result:

As Phil points out below:

Our next stop along the North West Passage is Tuktoyaktuk. That’s when we can use a pontoon, get rid of our rubbish, fill the tanks, do the laundry and have a shower. 500nm away.

[Edit – August 31st]

The Polar Ocean Challenge team report via Twitter:

Finally found our GROOVE 🙂 #sailing to #Tuktuyaktuk pic.twitter.com/n4yqrMjy5z

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) August 31, 2016

[Edit – September 3rd]

Last night Northabout reached Tuktoyaktuk near the delta of the great Mackenzie River:

The Polar Ocean Challenge team have had some repairs to do after the stormy start to their trip from Barrow:

Barbara & Johan with the spare sliders (not suspenders!) after successful mission to fix the sail! pic.twitter.com/UGwZJhlXA7

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) September 2, 2016

They have some more to carry out in Tuk too. Despite the great “groove” displayed above Ben Edwards reports that:

Joy of joys, the auto-helm’s stopped working. Dad (Steve Edwards, crew), thinks he knows why so we’ll hopefully be able to fix it in Tuk. In the meantime we’re back to helming by hand. This is a mixed blessing, on the one hand it’s really irritating to have to helm in large swells and with a strong headwind because any movement you make is at first ignored, and then exaggerated by, the wind. So it’s hard to keep a decent track and it makes it harder to look out for ice. On the other hand, moving and putting effort into the steering keeps you warm which is nice and it means you don’t have to put as many clothes on which is also nice because when you go down stairs and it’s twenty four degrees it can get quite uncomfortable.

[Edit – September 4th]

Northabout has just left Tuktoyaktuk:

Her crew have been refreshed and her auto-helm has been repaired with the assistance of numerous people from Tuk:

We all had our job lists, ice lights, bilge pumps, laundry, shopping but the man who gets the Vodka Salute is unquestionably Steve.

I dropped him off wth Willard. Two peas in a pod. They made a broken Pilot Spigot. That sounds quite easy but it took the whole day in a machine shop in a container, working to fine tolerances, and many modifications. Fitting it in the bowels of the Lazzerette in cold weather and driving rain. It worked first time. Brilliant effort.

Here’s the current weather forecast for the area:

Issued 07:00 AM MDT 04 September 2016
Today Tonight and Monday

Wind – Northwest 15 knots diminishing to light late this morning then becoming northwest 15 Monday morning.
Waves

Seas – 1 metre.

Weather & Visibility – Chance of showers changing to periods of rain near noon then to chance of showers tonight and Monday. Fog patches dissipating early this evening.

My famous last words? Plain sailing by the look of it!

[Edit – September 5th]

Northabout has just rounded Cape Bathurst, the northernmost point of mainland Northwest Territories:

I wonder if her crew will take a close look at the nearby Smoking Hills?

[Edit – September 6th]

Northabout gave the Smoking Hills a miss and headed strait for Cape Parry. She has already crossed the Amundsen Gulf and is heading into the Dolphin & Union Strait:

According to Ben Edwards’ latest blog post:

In light of the lack of ice and in the spirit of saving time we’ve decided not to stop in Cambridge Bay or Pond Inlet and go straight on to Upernavik in Greenland before doing our crew change. Looking at the ice maps at the moment it seems we’ll be able to get through with little or no trouble, though this is almost bound to change, if it stays that way we’ll reach Upernavik in about fourteen days. I’m looking forward to it!

[Edit – September 7th]

Northabout has reached Coronation Gulf this morning (UTC):

According to their recent reports the plan is to pass Pond Inlet without stopping. The weather up there is starting to look rather wintry:

[Edit – September 9th]

The Polar Ocean Challenge team report via Twitter that they have seen and chatted to David Scott Cowper:

Breakfast in #CambridgeBay? Sorry we’re in race against time before refreeze & to get to #BaffinBay before big storm pic.twitter.com/tre5EvcETr

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) September 9, 2016

as well as spotting some more ice:

#seaice Victoria Strait 2pm UTC 9 Sept #NWpassage https://t.co/l9PME6K27e pic.twitter.com/QAtelzpLmR

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) September 10, 2016

[Edit – September 10th]

This morning Northabout is rapidly approaching the western entrance to Bellot Strait:

Their stated intentions are to head past Pond Inlet and across Baffin Bay to Upernavik in Greenland. Assuming they initially follow the same route as Crystal Serenity they will soon to need to pick their way past some bergy bits in Prince Regent Inlet before negotiating some currently “wispy” areas of sea ice as they enter Lancaster Sound. Here is the current Canadian Ice Service chart for the area:

plus a rather cloudy “visual” image:

The current weather forecast for Pond Inlet doesn’t suggest the parts of the Northwest Passage still on Northabout’s route are going to start refreezing just yet:

Currently there is an obvious passage past the existing ice, but that may of course have changed by the time Northabout gets there.

[Edit – September 10th PM]

Northabout has just emerged safely from the eastern end of Bellot Strait:

I wonder if her crew will stop to make a new entry in the visitors book at Fort Ross?

[Edit – September 11th]

Here’s the latest CIS ice chart:

The gap between the coast and the yellow area of 4-6/10 concentration ice has closed considerably, and there’s now a broad expanse of 1-3/10 ice which Northabout may be forced to try and wend her way through. A change in wind direction would come in very handy, and that’s just what the ECMWF forecast at Windyty is suggesting for Sunday 11th:

Just what the doctor ordered?

[Edit – September 11th PM]

Video shot from Northabout’s drone of her ice-free passage through Bellot Strait:

However the passage from Prince Regent Inlet into Lancaster Sound has not proved to be ice-free!

Forced 6 miles off track 2 hours ago #PrinceRegentInlet by this #seaice https://t.co/MH3zBhEv6M #Nunavut #Arctic pic.twitter.com/5BuNUA5Xqs

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) September 11, 2016

[Edit – September 11th 20:30 UTC]

Northabout is obviously endeavouring to skirt around the eastern edge of the 4-6/10 old ice in her path:

Today’s CIS ice concentration chart suggests there isn’t much room to spare:

The stage of development chart does reveal some new ice, but it’s well to the north of Northabout’s route through Lancaster Sound to Pond Inlet:

Somewhat belatedly, here’s a Sentinel 1A synthetic aperture radar image of the sea ice Northabout is squeezing past as we speak:

[Edit – September 12th]

Northabout has emerged safely into Lancaster Sound, and is bypassing Pond Inlet in order to head strait across Baffin Bay:

Here are a couple of videos of some remnants of sea ice on her once again eastward travels:

There are several more on the Polar Ocean Challenge web site.

With all that ice now safely behind her Northabout has new dangers to face. Wind and waves! Let’s take a look at the WaveWatch III “surf forecast” for Baffin Bay over the next few days. A low pressure area is heading in Northabout’s direction from across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. By Wednesday morning (UTC) the resultant wind field looks like this:

By Wednesday afternoon those winds of around 15 m/s will have produced waves in Baffin Bay that are forecast to have reached over 3 meters high:

and what’s more they won’t be just wind waves. A modest swell with a period of over 12 seconds is predicted too:

I’m sure the Polar Ocean Challenge team will be doing their level best to be safely on the opposite side of Baffin Bay by the time the worst of the weather arrives!

Previous Polar Ocean Challenge articles:

Non Fiction:

“Northabout Races for the Date Line”

“Northabout Meets Some Serious Sea Ice”

“Northabout Bides Her Time”

“Northabout’s Great Adventure”

Satire:

“Could Northabout Sail to the North Pole?”

Fiction:

“Is the Polar Ocean Challenge About to End in Disaster?“

David Scott Cowper Makes History – Again

August 28, 2016ExpeditionsBellot Strait, David Scott Cowper, Fury & Hecla Strait, McClure Strait, Northabout, NWP, Polar BoundJim Hunt

David Scott Cowper in Polar Bound is currently approaching the eastern entrance to Bellot Strait in the heart of the Northwest Passage. There’s nothing unusual in that in this day and age, you may think, but take a look at how he got there:

We speculated about this possibility earlier this year, and Polar Bound has now travelled in a westerly direction through Fury and Hecla Strait rather than taking the usual route via Lancaster Sound. According to the definitive reference on such matters by Bob Headland of the Scott Polar Research Institute she is the first vessel ever to do so using route West 7:

According to the Canadian Ice Service charts Polar Bound will only have needed to negotiate a short stretch of 1-3 tenths concentration sea ice to achieve her latest Northwest Passage “first”:

David Scott Cowper is already mentioned several times in the SPRI list of successful Northwest Passage transits:

1986-89
Mabel E. Holland (12·8 m lifeboat), Britain, David Scott Cowper, West 6, Single-handed voyage, vessel wintered at Fort Ross twice, and at Inuvik

2003-04
Polar Bound (14·6 m motorboat), Britain, David Scott Cowper, East 5, Single-handed voyage, wintered in Cambridge Bay, assisted by CCGS Louis S. St Laurent in Prince Regent Inlet

2009
Polar Bound (14·6 m motorboat), Britain, David Scott Cowper, West 5, Single-handed voyage

2011
PolarBound (14·6 m motorboat), Britain, David Scott Cowper, East 3

2012
PolarBound (14·6 m motorboat), Britain, David Scott Cowper, West 1

2013
PolarBound (14·6 m motorboat), Britain, David Scott Cowper, East 5, Traversed Pond Inlet

It looks as though there will be another addition real soon now, but for the moment note in particular the entry for 2012. Route 1 is the northernmost of the potential paths through the Northwest Passage and involves negotiating the usually ice bound McClure Strait. Polar Bound was the first ever small vessel to do so! At the moment it looks like that will be a difficult feat to repeat this year. Whilst many of the assorted channels through the Northwest Passage melted out early this year the recent recurring cyclones have ensured that McClure Strait remains firmly blocked:

[Edit – September 3rd]

Polar Bound has just emerged from the western end of Bellot Strait:

The $64,000 question is where is she headed next?

[Edit – September 4th]

The short term answer is a sheltered spot between Hobday Island and Prince of Wales Island:

[Edit – September 7th]

Polar Bound is taking the most obvious exit from the Canadian Arctic Archipelago, and is currently heading for Coronation Gulf via Dease Strait:

Northabout is currently travelling in the opposite direction. Perhaps they’ll soon meet there?

[Edit – September 8th]

It seems they did!

“Just saw #PolarBound!” The Davids bumped into each other in the #NWpassage #DavidHemplemanAdams #DavidCowper pic.twitter.com/EvLPLDF8wl

— PolarOceanChallenge (@PolarOceanChall) September 8, 2016

[Edit – September 17th]

David Scott Cowper is currently approaching Barrow in Polar Bound, but the weather forecast is more than a bit blustery. According to today’s National Weather Service forecast, here’s what he should expect:

POINT FRANKLIN TO CAPE HALKETT-
405 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING…

TODAY
SW WINDS 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 5 FT. SNOW AND RAIN.

TONIGHT
W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 9 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

SUN
W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 10 FT. FREEZING SPRAY.

SUN NIGHT
W WINDS 30 KT. SEAS 11 FT.

Let’s hope Polar Bound finds some shelter before the worst of it arrives on Sunday night.

[Edit – September 21st]

It seems Polar Bound didn’t find shelter, and instead reversed course during the worst of the storm:

However, as you can see, she has now passed Point Barrow and is Heading south towards the Arctic Circle via the Bering Strait:

Can you spot the yellow needle in the icy haystack? There is currently much “debate” in the cryodeinialosphere to the effect that Northabout nearly became “trapped by ice”, so let’s also take a quick look at the National Weather Service ice chart covering Barrow shall we?

It seems Polar Bound somehow managed to wend her way through 7-8/10 concentration sea ice, does it not?

[Edit – September 24th]

Polar Bound has now crossed the Arctic Circle and is heading south through the Bering Strait:

David Scott Cowper has therefore now “officially” completed his record breaking route West 7 transit of the Northwest Passage.

Very well done sir, and bon voyage!

Crystal Serenity Sets Sail for the Northwest Passage

August 20, 2016ExpeditionsACNFS, Araon, BAS, Charles Michel, Crystal Serenity, Ernest Shackleton, Janice Hahn, NWP, USCGC HealyJim Hunt

We first mentioned the cruise ship Crystal Serenity in our initial musings about prospects for the Northwest Passage in 2016. Since then the sea ice has melted on a variety of the “southern” routes through the Northwest Passage, and the Crystal Serenity has now set sail for the Arctic. Amongst the over 1000 passengers there is even a blogger:

We’re thrilled to have travel journalist Katie Jackson “joining the crew” for this voyage. Katie, an acclaimed writer and avid traveler, will be providing dispatches from the ship…or tundra, or zodiac, to help all of you indulge your wanderlust.

The Crystal Serenity is equipped with a number of webcams. Here’s the current view from one as the Crystal Serenity is en route to Nome Alaska:

It looks a bit breezy up there at the moment, but nothing to trouble the 68,000 ton Crystal Serenity. However Crystal Cruises do seem to be anticipating some potential problems. Accompanying the Crystal Serenity will be the British Antarctic Survey icebreaker Ernest Shackleton, which is already making its way through the Northwest Passage from the direction of the Atlantic Ocean:

According to a Crystal Cruises press release:

The RRS Ernest Shackleton, operated by British Antarctic Survey, is an ICE 05 classed icebreaker (exceeding the more common 1A Super class) that will provide operational support to Crystal Serenity, including ice breaking assistance should the need arise and carry additional safety and adventure equipment.

The RRS Ernest Shackleton will carry two helicopters for real-time ice reconnaissance, emergency support and flightseeing activities. In addition to its robust ice navigation and communications equipment, the RRS Ernest Shackleton will have on board supplemental damage control equipment, oil pollution containment equipment, and survival rations for emergency use.

Hopefully none of that emergency equipment will need deploying over the next two weeks or so, but that is far from certain. Listen to what Admiral Charles Michel, Vice Commandant of the United States Coast Guard, had to say in testimony before the House Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation in answer to questions from Congresswoman Janice Hahn:

I don’t want to underestimate the challenges of that area. There is almost no logistics up there. For example if we needed to get another helicopter up there they’re only bringing a very small helicopter with them. If we needed to get a big helicopter up there it’s estimated it would take between 15 and 20 hours, if the weather’s good, in order to get that up there. Fixed wing aviation may be available, but even there you’ve got very limited landing areas, very environmentally sensitive areas, things change up there dramatically even during the summer. The weather is an incredible challenge, so this is not an easy category for a voyage.

If you’re interested in US Arctic policy in general you may wish to watch the whole 2+ hours of the hearing instead. In which case, here it is!

[Edit – August 23rd]

Crystal Serenity is now inside the Arctic Circle, and rapidly approaching her first potential problem:

Here is the latest National Weather Service ice chart for Alaskan waters:

It shows 1-3 tenths coverage all the way to shore at Point Barrow. What’s more with the Great Arctic Cyclone still raging the current US Navy forecast is for continuing onshore ice drift:

Maybe that’s why there seems to be an icebreaker patiently waiting offshore at Barrow as we speak?

As luck would have it USCGC Healy is in the vicinity too, albeit slightly south of Barrow. The weather in the Chukchi Sea doesn’t look too good at the moment:

[Edit – August 24rd]

Crystal Serenity has rounded Point Barrow, apparently without incident. Here’s her tracking map from SailWX:

Apparently icebreaker assistance was not required since the ship anchored off Barrow, which looks a lot like the Korean icebreaker Araon, seems not to have moved:

Rather disappointingly the Crystal Serenity’s webcams seem to update infrequently and have yet to reveal any sea ice. The Healy aloftcon camera, however, recorded this image from 72 degrees north:

[Edit – August 27th]

Crystal Serenity has reached Ulukhaktok on the west coast Victoria Island, and met up with the Ernest Shackleton:

It doesn’t look as though any ice breaking will be required in the near future!

[Edit – August 29th]

Crystal Serenity and Ernest Shackleton are both now in Cambridge Bay:

There is no ice to be seen!

The next stage of Crystal Serenity’s itinerary involves “Cruising Peel Sound or The Bellot Strait”. I wonder which option she’ll take?

Judging by the Canadian Ice Service charts both seem feasible at the moment.

[Edit – August 30th]

Crystal Serenity has found some sea ice in Victoria Strait!

A polar bear has been spotted too:

The early morning paid off quickly with our first Polar bear sighting! And what an experience it was. This apex predator patrolled calmly on an ice floe, and put on quite a show stretching, scanning and keeping watch for any potential prey.

[Edit – August 31st]

Crystal Serenity has evidently decided to cut through Bellot Strait:

Here’s the view from the bridge:

No sea ice to be seen!

P.S. Having emerged from the eastern end of Bellot Strait some bergy bits could be seen in the Gulf of Boothia:

[Edit – September 2nd]

Crystal Serenity has been taking a good long look at a glacier today:

Judging by her tracking map it’s the North Croker Bay Glacier on Devon Island:

I wonder if that’s where those bergy bits came from?

The Great White Con

Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight

September Arctic Cyclone Alert!

Shock News! The Worms Have Turned!!

Northabout Heads for Home

Santa Extends His Secret Summer Swimming Pool

Dumb and Dumberer at the Blog of Fools

Could Northabout Sail to the North Pole?

The 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Metric Minima

Northabout Braves the Northwest Passage

David Scott Cowper Makes History – Again

Crystal Serenity Sets Sail for the Northwest Passage