Some “pleasure craft” are currently heading up the west coast of Greenland en route to the Bering Strait via Lancaster Sound and one of the assorted routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. For those of you unfamiliar with the geography of the Northwest Passage, here are couple of hopefully helpful maps:
Whilst there is still ice blocking the route across Baffin Bay from Greenland, the Canadian Ice Service has already started daily coverage of the heart of the southern route through the Northwest Passage. There’s plenty of open water in Lancaster Sound and low concentration sea ice in Prince Regent Inlet:
Further south there is also open water in the Coronation Gulf, but the fast ice between Peel Sound and King William Island has not yet started breaking up:
This slightly cloudy satellite image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago also shows that the exit of the northern route via McClure Strait into the Beaufort Sea is already navigable:
Back in 2013 I sat around a table with the Chinese delegation during lunch at the Economist’s Arctic Summitin Oslo. In the evening there was a reception with the British Ambassador to Norway, where amongst other people I met Kevin Vallely.
Fast forwarding to July 2021, the Chinese icebreaker Xue Long 2 (which translates to Snow Dragon 2) set sail from Shanghai to do some research in the Central Arctic Basin:
According to a report by the China Global Television Network (CGTN):
The expedition plans to monitor sea, marine ice, atmosphere, microplastics and ocean acidification in the high seas of the Arctic through navigation observation, cross-sectional survey and satellite remote sensing to obtain hydrological, meteorological and biological data of the region.
It will also conduct scientific surveys in the Gakkel Ridge in the Arctic Ocean to learn about the formation of rocks and magma and the geomorphic features there to further enhance knowledge of the natural environment in the North Pole.
The U.S. Coast Guard demonstrated its commitment to the Bering Sea and Arctic region with deployments of national security cutters Bertholf and Kimball, and a U.S. Arctic patrol by icebreaker Healy.
“Security in the Bering Sea and the Arctic is homeland security,” said Vice Adm. Michael McAllister, commander Coast Guard Pacific Area. “The U.S. Coast Guard is continuously present in this important region to uphold American interests and protect U.S. economic prosperity.”
Crews interacted with local, national and international vessels throughout the Arctic. During the deployment, Bertholf and Kimball observed four ships from the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) operating as close as 46 miles off the Aleutian Island coast. While the ships were within the U.S. exclusive economic zone, they followed international laws and norms and at no point entered U.S. territorial waters.
The PLAN task force included a guided missile cruiser, a guided missile destroyer, a general intelligence vessel, and an auxiliary vessel. The Chinese vessels conducted military and surveillance operations during their deployment to the Bering Sea and North Pacific Ocean.
All interactions between the U.S. Coast Guard and PLAN were in accordance with international standards set forth in the Western Pacific Naval Symposium’s Code for Unplanned Encounters at Sea and Convention on the International Regulations for Preventing Collisions at Sea.
Now comes more news via CGTN, which according to YouTube “is funded in whole or in part by the Chinese government”, that:
Chinese captain Zhai Mo’s sailing boat is currently on the Northwest Passage of the Arctic Ocean.
According to the CGTN video it was “streamed live on Sep 15, 2021” from “Ilulissat, Denmark”. Then on September 16th CGTN reported that:
Canada has illegally stopped Chinese captain Zhai Mo and his crew while circumnavigating their sailboat in the Arctic Ocean near Lancaster Sound, a part of the northwest passage.
The United Nations defines the “right of innocent passage” as a vessel’s right to enter and pass through another’s territory as long as it is not prejudicial to the peace, good order or security of the other state.
Ilulissat is of course a long way from Denmark, and also a considerable distance from Lancaster Sound. Which perhaps explains why CBC reported on September 17th that:
Canadian officials are disputing reports in Chinese media that a famous sailor from that country attempting to circumnavigate the Arctic was turned back in the Northwest Passage…
Transport Canada told CBC News in an email on Friday that it was aware of Zhai’s vessel, but said “at this point, it has not entered Canada’s Arctic Waters.” The Northwest Passage has been off limits to foreign pleasure craft since March 2020 due to an interim order from the Canadian government intended to limit the risk of introducing COVID-19 in remote Arctic communities.
Transport Canada said it was in touch with Zhai via email to inform him of the rule.
“Transport Canada has since seen public reports that Captain Zhai Mo no longer plans to pass through Canadian Arctic waters and the department continues to monitor the situation,” the department said in a second statement to CBC News on Friday evening.
It seems to me that no longer planning to pass through Canadian Arctic waters is very prudent on Zhai Mo‘s part, since navigating the Northwest Passage without support from Xue Long 2 or a Canadian icebreaker is currently fraught with difficulty:
[Edit – September 21st]
By way of some additional background information, on January 26th 2018 China published a “white paper” on China’s Arctic Policy:
China is an important stakeholder in Arctic affairs. Geographically, China is a “Near-Arctic State”, one of the continental States that are closest to the Arctic Circle. The natural conditions of the Arctic and their changes have a direct impact on China’s climate system and ecological environment, and, in turn, on its economic interests in agriculture, forestry, fishery, marine industry and other sectors.
China is also closely involved in the trans-regional and global issues in the Arctic, especially in such areas as climate change, environment, scientific research, utilization of shipping routes, resource exploration and exploitation, security, and global governance. These issues are vital to the existence and development of all countries and humanity, and directly affect the interests of non-Arctic States including China. China enjoys the freedom or rights of scientific research, navigation, overflight, fishing, laying of submarine cables and pipelines, and resource exploration and exploitation in the high seas, the Area and other relevant sea areas, and certain special areas in the Arctic Ocean, as stipulated in treaties such as the UNCLOS and the Spitsbergen Treaty, and general international law. As a permanent member of the UN Security Council, China shoulders the important mission of jointly promoting peace and security in the Arctic. The utilization of sea routes and exploration and development of the resources in the Arctic may have a huge impact on the energy strategy and economic development of China, which is a major trading nation and energy consumer in the world. China’s capital, technology, market, knowledge and experience is expected to play a major role in expanding the network of shipping routes in the Arctic and facilitating the economic and social progress of the coastal States along the routes. China has shared interests with Arctic States and a shared future with the rest of the world in the Arctic.
Followed by:
The Arctic shipping routes comprise the Northeast Passage, Northwest Passage, and the Central Passage. As a result of global warming, the Arctic shipping routes are likely to become important transport routes for international trade. China respects the legislative, enforcement and adjudicatory powers of the Arctic States in the waters subject to their jurisdiction. China maintains that the management of the Arctic shipping routes should be conducted in accordance with treaties including the UNCLOS and general international law and that the freedom of navigation enjoyed by all countries in accordance with the law and their rights to use the Arctic shipping routes should be ensured. China maintains that disputes over the Arctic shipping routes should be properly settled in accordance with international law.
China hopes to work with all parties to build a “Polar Silk Road” through developing the Arctic shipping routes. It encourages its enterprises to participate in the infrastructure construction for these routes and conduct commercial trial voyages in accordance with the law to pave the way for their commercial and regularized operation.
Prompted by a comment on the Northwest Passage thread from last year I’m opening the 2021 equivalent earlier than usual, in part because there’s already a lot going on of interest. First of all let’s get our bearings with the help of this map of the area:
and another map detailing the routes through Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully traversed:
The forecast high pressure has arrived and the skies have cleared over the Beaufort Sea, which reveals that the land-fast ice off the Mackenzie Delta has started breaking up:
In addition the snow has been melting along the valley of the Mackenzie River, and the resulting increased flow at the mouth of the delta is flooding the fast ice:
We first mentioned the cruise ship Crystal Serenity in our initial musings about prospects for the Northwest Passage in 2016. Since then the sea ice has melted on a variety of the “southern” routes through the Northwest Passage, and the Crystal Serenity has now set sail for the Arctic. Amongst the over 1000 passengers there is even a blogger:
We’re thrilled to have travel journalist Katie Jackson “joining the crew” for this voyage. Katie, an acclaimed writer and avid traveler, will be providing dispatches from the ship…or tundra, or zodiac, to help all of you indulge your wanderlust.
The Crystal Serenity is equipped with a number of webcams. Here’s the current view from one as the Crystal Serenity is en route to Nome Alaska:
It looks a bit breezy up there at the moment, but nothing to trouble the 68,000 ton Crystal Serenity. However Crystal Cruises do seem to be anticipating some potential problems. Accompanying the Crystal Serenity will be the British Antarctic Survey icebreaker Ernest Shackleton, which is already making its way through the Northwest Passage from the direction of the Atlantic Ocean:
The RRS Ernest Shackleton, operated by British Antarctic Survey, is an ICE 05 classed icebreaker (exceeding the more common 1A Super class) that will provide operational support to Crystal Serenity, including ice breaking assistance should the need arise and carry additional safety and adventure equipment.
The RRS Ernest Shackleton will carry two helicopters for real-time ice reconnaissance, emergency support and flightseeing activities. In addition to its robust ice navigation and communications equipment, the RRS Ernest Shackleton will have on board supplemental damage control equipment, oil pollution containment equipment, and survival rations for emergency use.
Hopefully none of that emergency equipment will need deploying over the next two weeks or so, but that is far from certain. Listen to what Admiral Charles Michel, Vice Commandant of the United States Coast Guard, had to say in testimony before the House Subcommittee on Coast Guard and Maritime Transportation in answer to questions from Congresswoman Janice Hahn:
I don’t want to underestimate the challenges of that area. There is almost no logistics up there. For example if we needed to get another helicopter up there they’re only bringing a very small helicopter with them. If we needed to get a big helicopter up there it’s estimated it would take between 15 and 20 hours, if the weather’s good, in order to get that up there. Fixed wing aviation may be available, but even there you’ve got very limited landing areas, very environmentally sensitive areas, things change up there dramatically even during the summer. The weather is an incredible challenge, so this is not an easy category for a voyage.
If you’re interested in US Arctic policy in general you may wish to watch the whole 2+ hours of the hearing instead. In which case, here it is!
[Edit – August 23rd]
Crystal Serenity is now inside the Arctic Circle, and rapidly approaching her first potential problem:
Here is the latest National Weather Service ice chart for Alaskan waters:
It shows 1-3 tenths coverage all the way to shore at Point Barrow. What’s more with the Great Arctic Cyclone still raging the current US Navy forecast is for continuing onshore ice drift:
Maybe that’s why there seems to be an icebreaker patiently waiting offshore at Barrow as we speak?
As luck would have it USCGC Healy is in the vicinity too, albeit slightly south of Barrow. The weather in the Chukchi Sea doesn’t look too good at the moment:
[Edit – August 24rd]
Crystal Serenity has rounded Point Barrow, apparently without incident. Here’s her tracking map from SailWX:
Apparently icebreaker assistance was not required since the ship anchored off Barrow, which looks a lot like the Korean icebreaker Araon, seems not to have moved:
Rather disappointingly the Crystal Serenity’s webcams seem to update infrequently and have yet to reveal any sea ice. The Healy aloftcon camera, however, recorded this image from 72 degrees north:
[Edit – August 27th]
Crystal Serenity has reached Ulukhaktok on the west coast Victoria Island, and met up with the Ernest Shackleton:
It doesn’t look as though any ice breaking will be required in the near future!
[Edit – August 29th]
Crystal Serenity and Ernest Shackleton are both now in Cambridge Bay:
There is no ice to be seen!
The next stage of Crystal Serenity’s itinerary involves “Cruising Peel Sound or The Bellot Strait”. I wonder which option she’ll take?
The early morning paid off quickly with our first Polar bear sighting! And what an experience it was. This apex predator patrolled calmly on an ice floe, and put on quite a show stretching, scanning and keeping watch for any potential prey.
[Edit – August 31st]
Crystal Serenity has evidently decided to cut through Bellot Strait:
Here’s the view from the bridge:
No sea ice to be seen!
P.S. Having emerged from the eastern end of Bellot Strait some bergy bits could be seen in the Gulf of Boothia:
[Edit – September 2nd]
Crystal Serenity has been taking a good long look at a glacier today:
Judging by her tracking map it’s the North Croker Bay Glacier on Devon Island:
I wonder if that’s where those bergy bits came from?
It looks like a storm is brewing in the Arctic. The long range weather forecasts for the Arctic have been remarkably unreliable recently, but this one is for a mere three days from now. WaveWatch III suggests there will be some significant waves in the Chukchi and Beaufort Seas this coming weekend, travelling in the direction of the ice edge:
Another day has dawned, and the Environment Canada synoptic chart shows that the low pressure system currently over the Arctic has reached a central pressure of 990 hPa:
The latest ECMWF SLP forecast for tomorrow is firming up:
A modest swell is now visible from USCGC Healy’s “AloftCon” webcam:
whilst the WaveWatch III forecast for tomorrow has dropped off to a significant wave height of around 2 metres with an average period of 7 seconds:
Meanwhile an image from the VIIRS instrument on the Suomi NPP satellite reveals the current storm in all its glory, together with confirmation that the “Big Block” multi-year ice floe north of Barrow has split asunder overnight:
[Edit July 17th 2016]
Sunday morning has now arrived. The storm in the Arctic looks to have bottomed out at 986 hPa central pressure. Here’s the Environment Canada synoptic chart for 00:00 this morning:
This is how the resultant swell looked from USCGC Healy at 06:00:
[Edit July 18th 2016]
Here’s what the Beaufort and Chukchi Sea north of Barrow look like this morning through the clouds:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on July 18th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
The remains of the now not so “Big Block” can just be made out in the bottom left. For a cloud free image here’s the latest AMSR2 passive microwave imagery of the area from the University of Hamburg:
The USCGC Healy and the remnants of the swell are in amongst the ice:
[Edit July 20th 2016]
As the remnants of the storm head off across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago here is what it has left in its wake in the Central Arctic Basin:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Central Arctic Basin on July 19th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration visualisation of the Central Arctic on July 19th 2016
[Edit July 21st 2016]
The storm has dispersed the remaining ice in the Beaufort Sea over the last few days:
However across the Arctic as a whole sea ice area continues its downward trend:
Shock News! Over in the denialosphere at the (un)Real Science blog I’ve been challenged to yet another Arctic sea ice bet. This one now seems to be signed and sealed, but will probably have to wait a few years before it is delivered:
Them:
Have you come up with the terms of our bet yet? I have yet to find one single alarmist willing to bet their house on an ice free Arctic at any time over the next 20 years, I may have to extend to 30 years, though the amount of cigarettes I smoke, I doubt I will be around that long.
Us:
Having personally discussed the matter with Rear Admiral Jon White:
and having since publicly stated that I’m more pessimistic than him, how about $1000 in favour of ShelterBox on CT area < 1 mio square kilometers by the summer of 2022 at the latest?
Them:
$1000 on CT area being less than 1 million square kilometres at some point between now and 2022 sounds fine to me, we have a bet. Remember, this is where to send your $1000
Meanwhile I’ve been trying to find someone, anyone, willing to don a polar bear suit and then stand up on a surf board. I have yet to find one single “skeptic” willing to accept my challenge to become part of the “Great Green Con” Arctic surf team. First in line for an invitation was “Steve Goddard” (AKA Tony Heller):
Them:
Within a week, a cyclone will be spreading Arctic sea ice, and extent will flat line or increase.
Us:
I’m following that cyclone with much interest too Tony! What’s your Arctic surf forecast?
Whilst we wait for a “skeptic” willing to stop doing a chicken impression and start impersonating a polar bear to reveal themself, how is the surf in the Chukchi Sea coming along? There are already some signs of a building swell to be seen. The US icebreaker USCGC Healy is currently bobbing about on a modest swell off Barrow:
Whilst onshore a modest wave can currently be seen breaking on Barrow beach:
Here’s what that swell looks like on the WaveWatch III nowcast:
Meanwhile the cyclone brewing in the Arctic is now forecast to have a central pressure below 990 mb next week, by GFS at least:
We’ll keep you posted!
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