Tag Archives: Thickness

Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have now refrozen. Consequently Arctic sea ice extent is now increasing more slowly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Introducing the third dimension, here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of October 2024:

Note the change in scale from previous months, to allow for easier comparison with the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute: 

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

Facts About the Arctic in October 2024

The JAXA extent graph is currently not updating, so let’s begin this month with the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute. Click the image to see a ~10 Mb animation of the last four weeks:

Note in particular the restart of export into the East Greenland Sea via the Fram Strait:

and the movement of ice within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2024 has been released:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in October 2024

The 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent in the Cryodenialosphere

Earlier today the National Snow and Ice Data Center announced that:

On September 11, Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent of 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles). The 2024 minimum is the seventh lowest in the nearly 46-year satellite record. The last 18 years, from 2007 to 2024, are the lowest 18 sea ice extents in the satellite record…

Note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

Consequently several of the usual cryodenialospheric suspects have been frantically spinning their webs of deceit around the announcement.

First up was Javier Vinós, who beat the NSIDC’s starting gun by firing a broadside on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday. If you’re unfamiliar with the name, Javier frequently pontificates about Arctic sea ice, amongst other things, on Judith Curry’s “Climate Etc.” blog. He confidently announced that:

Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum with an extent greater than in 2007, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2023.

The two warmest years in a row at > +1.5°C have ZERO IMPACT on the 17-year resilience of Arctic sea ice.

Needless to say, “Snow White” felt compelled to quibble:

Continue reading The 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent in the Cryodenialosphere

Facts About the Arctic in August 2024

At the beginning of August JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

In 2012 extent had just started its unprecedented plunge towards the record September minimum, and 2024 seems certain to cross above the 2012 curve shortly. However, the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals areas of open water across the majority of the Central Arctic Basin:

In particular the sea ice between the North Pole and northern Greenland is remarkably fragmented:

“False colour” image of the North Pole on August 3rd from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in August 2024

Facts About the Arctic in July 2024

The first sea ice outlook report for 2024 has been published by the Sea Ice Prediction Network:

This year’s median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.48 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 4.21 to 4.74 million square kilometers. This is slightly lower than the 2022 (4.57 million square kilometers) and 2023 (4.54 million square kilometers) June median forecasts for September.

The lowest sea-ice extent forecast is 3.1 million square kilometers, from the UK Met Office, which would be a new record low for the satellite period (1979-present); the highest sea-ice extent forecast is 5.21 million square kilometers, submitted by both the HEU Group and SYSU/SML-MLM, which would be the highest September extent since 2015:

There are three heuristic Outlooks, with a median of 4.32 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.26 to 4.4 million square kilometers. Statistical submissions total fifteen Outlooks with a median of 4.68 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.47 to 4.9 million square kilometers. There are nine dynamical model contributions. The dynamical models have a median forecast of 3.97 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 3.68 to 4.35 million square kilometers.

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in July 2024

Facts About the Arctic in June 2024

The JAXA/ViSHOP web site is currently down, so here is the current OSI SAF extent graph for the end of May:

2012’s “June cliff” is almost upon us, and if 2024’s current trajectory continues extent will cross above 2012 for the first time since February in a week or so.

Here’s the GFS model’s current map of snow depth:

Melt ponds are now visible on the ice in the Laptev Sea:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in June 2024

Facts About the Arctic in May 2024

Since a certain “sceptic” has recently been comparing 2024 sea ice extent to “20 years ago”, here’s the current JAXA/ViSHOP extent graph of selected years, including 2004:

The CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph finishes on April 15th, but older data is being reanalysed and here is the latest version:

The gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March has been filled in, but the result doesn’t look very convincing to say the least!

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for April 2024 is now available. Here’s the end of month volume graph:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2024

Facts About the Arctic in April 2024

Starting this month with a look at assorted volume/thickness data, here is the CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map for March 31st:

Plus the associated volume graph, which still suffers from a gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for March 2024 is also available. Here’s the end of month thickness map:

Plus the calculated volume graph:

Especially for Peter, here too is the DMI’s chart of monthly Arctic sea ice volume for March:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in April 2024

Tony Heller Sets Arctic Shark Jump World Record!

This is a photograph of a Greenland shark:

(c) Eric Ste Marie https://www.husseylab.com/

You will no doubt be astonished to learn that shark jumping supremo Tony Heller has just jumped over the entire East Greenland population of this long lived but officially vulnerable species. Without harming a single one!

Over on XTwitter “Steve”/Tony was recently shown this video which graphically reveals the declining age of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean:

He responded as follows:

According to the “summary for skeptics” of the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate:

Continue reading Tony Heller Sets Arctic Shark Jump World Record!

Facts About the Arctic in February 2024

A change is perhaps even better than a rest? Let’s start February with a reminder that following close behind another recent Arctic cyclone, Storm Ingunn caused red weather warnings for high winds and avalanches in Norway two days ago:

By yesterday evening another long period, storm driven swell was arriving at the sea ice edge in the Fram Strait, and to a lesser extent in the Barents Sea:

By this morning Ingunn had merged with the remnants of the prior cyclone, as revealed in Climate Reanalyzer’s visualisation of the latest GFS model run::

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in February 2024