Hudson Bay has fully frozen over during January. However, there is still open water north of Svalbard and in the North Water Polynya. It’s even possible to go swimming in the Nares Strait according to the latest AMSR2 concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute:
JAXA extent is currently 3rd lowest for the date, in a “statistical tie” with 2017:
Looking at the third dimension next, PIOMAS volume was second lowest for the date by a whisker at the end of January:
The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows that the Pacific side of the Central Arctic Basin is now almost completely refrozen:
On the Atlantic side of the Arctic the Kara Sea is rapidly refreezing:
However, sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and Baffin Bay is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently lowest for the date in the satellite era:
The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows the East Siberian and Laptev Seas almost completely refrozen. However, refreeze of the Kara Sea has barely begun:
Across the Arctic as a whole the refreeze has slowed significantly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite era:
However, average NSIDC extent for the month of October was higher than last year and above the linear trend:
The ERA5 MSLP map for October shows high pressure over Siberia, associated with lower than normal air temperatures at 925 hPa across the region. However, temperatures across almost the entire Arctic Ocean were above normal:
High Arctic freezing degree days based on DMI >80N data were lowest for the date at the beginning of November:
Bear in mind the caveats about the current lack of reliable SMOS data on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, and that Sentinel 3 data is only incorporated from Autumn 2023.
[Update – November 20th]
Refreeze of the Beaufort Sea is complete, and refreeze of the Kara Sea has started in earnest:
However, the Barents Sea is still sea ice free and refreeze of Hudson Bay has barely begun:
JAXA extent is still second lowest for the date:
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for October has yet to be corrected, but here is the mid month thickness map from AWI:
Here too is the associated volume graph:
[Update – November 27th]
JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now lowest for the date in their record going back to 1978:
[Update – December 5th]
The PIOMAS team have finally published gridded thickness data for October and November, so here are the October 31st and November 15th thickness maps:
The conversation continues over on the December open thread, including the latest PIOMAS data.
JAXA/ViSHOP extent is no longer “lowest for the date”! After “flatlining” for most of April the metric is now in the midst of a close knit group of the other years in the 2020s:
The high pressure area over the Central Arctic persisted through the second half of April, and so did the consequent drift of ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic periphery:
AWI’s sea ice area for the Greenland Sea is currently “highest for the date” in the AMSR2 record that started in July 2012:
The offshore winds along the Laptev Sea coast have continued, and sea ice area is now “lowest for the date”:
The first signs of a break in the high pressure dominance are appearing. GFS currently forecasts that a low pressure area will enter the Central Arctic, bring above zero temperatures over the Kara Sea on Sunday:
The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have now refrozen. Consequently Arctic sea ice extent is now increasing more slowly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Note the change in scale from previous months, to allow for easier comparison with the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:
Since a certain “sceptic” has recently been comparing 2024 sea ice extent to “20 years ago”, here’s the current JAXA/ViSHOP extent graph of selected years, including 2004:
The CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph finishes on April 15th, but older data is being reanalysed and here is the latest version:
The gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March has been filled in, but the result doesn’t look very convincing to say the least!
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for April 2024 is now available. Here’s the end of month volume graph:
Starting this month with a look at assorted volume/thickness data, here is the CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map for March 31st:
Plus the associated volume graph, which still suffers from a gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March:
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for March 2024 is also available. Here’s the end of month thickness map:
Plus the calculated volume graph:
Especially for Peter, here too is the DMI’s chart of monthly Arctic sea ice volume for March:
A change is perhaps even better than a rest? Let’s start February with a reminder that following close behind another recent Arctic cyclone, Storm Ingunn caused red weather warnings for high winds and avalanches in Norway two days ago:
By yesterday evening another long period, storm driven swell was arriving at the sea ice edge in the Fram Strait, and to a lesser extent in the Barents Sea:
By this morning Ingunn had merged with the remnants of the prior cyclone, as revealed in Climate Reanalyzer’s visualisation of the latest GFS model run::
A change is allegedly as good as a rest, so here’s an alternative view of high resolution AMSR2 area and extent created using the experimental tools provided by the AWI’s Lars Kaleschke at: https://sites.google.com/view/sea-ice/
After a brief pause mid-month the refreeze has accelerated again. Both metrics are in the upper half of the decadal range, with extent this year just above 2021 and area just below last year.
Next let’s take a look at sea ice concentration at the end of October:
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