Does Toby Young Have “Close Affiliations to the Fossil Fuel Industry”?

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According to The Spectator magazine “Toby Young is associate editor of The Spectator”

According to Toby’s article in tomorrow’s edition of The Spectator:

On Sunday, the BBC did something unusual. It invited Luke Johnson, a climate contrarian, to join a panel with Laura Kuenssberg to discuss net zero. As followers of this debate will know, the BBC’s editorial policy unit issued guidance to staff in 2018 saying: ‘As climate change is accepted as happening, you do not need a “denier” to balance the debate.’ Although it did allow for exceptions to this rule: ‘There are occasions where contrarians and sceptics should be included within climate change and sustainability debates.’ Presumably this was one such occasion.

Here’s a picture of the “panel” he refers to:

Toby continues:

The other two people on the panel – Chris Packham and Layla Moran – are members of the climate emergency camp, so there was no pretence of ‘balance’. At one point, the exchange between Johnson and Packham became heated and when the latter invoked the recent downpour in Dubai as well as extensive wildfires in the ‘global south’, as evidence of the effect of anthropogenic global warming, Johnson challenged him to come up with evidence that extreme weather was caused by carbon emissions.

‘It doesn’t come from Toby Young’s Daily Septic [sic], which is basically put together by a bunch of professionals with close affiliations to the fossil fuel industry,’ replied Packham. ‘It comes from something called science.’

According to Mr. Young on X (formerly Twitter) yesterday:

In another Xweet Toby phrased things slightly differently, a sentiment echoed by Daily Sceptic Environment Editor Chris Morrison:

As you can see, “Snow White” is not entirely happy with the content of some of Mr. Morrison’s fantasy fiction published in the Daily Sceptic.

According to Companies House Toby Young is associated with Luke Johnson as well as Daily Sceptic Editor Will Jones. They are all directors of Skeptics Limited:

Isn’t it strange that Toby didn’t mentioned that fact in his Spectator article or on XTwitter?

Isn’t it strange that the BBC platforms a “climate contrarian” associated with the Daily Sceptic?

Isn’t it strange that The Spectator isn’t discussing what Layla Moran had to say?

“Let’s imagine that the science is right. What if we don’t do anything?

When you talk about colder, and poorer. That would be catastrophic, and I’m sure nobody wants to vote for that”.

[Update – April 26th 23:00]

Who would’ve thunk it? According to Andrew Neil on XTwitter the BBC have stated that:

During a discussion with the panel about various issues including climate change, broadcaster and conservationist Chris Packham claimed that the Daily Sceptic, whose editor in chief is Toby Young, is “basically put together by a bunch of professionals with close affiliations to the fossil fuel industry.”

We acknowledge we would ideally have asked him to present his evidence on this, but in a fast-moving live programme it’s not always possible to pick up on every point made by our guests.

We’ve removed any posts on X with this part of the discussion.

For some strange reason Mr. Neil hasn’t got around to answering any of the questions “Snow White” has put to him recently, including this one in particular:

Mr. Neil is also publicly promulgating scurrilous accusations against the UK’s beloved Met Office:

He hasn’t answered this question yet either:

Watch this space!

Chris Martz Should’ve Gone To Specsavers

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Chris Martz, the new kid on the “skeptical block”, proudly proclaimed on XTwitter yesterday that:

There’s more sea ice heading into the summer in the Arctic this year than there was in 1989.

That is of course a porky pie:

As you can see, Chris also invokes the age old canard of the “Mark Serreze Arctic sea ice death spiral”. I discussed that very topic with Mark in 2015:

Mark told me that he still stood by his 2030 estimate for the onset of a seasonally ice free Arctic, although: “Most models say more like 2050”.

Continue reading Chris Martz Should’ve Gone To Specsavers →

Facts About the Arctic in April 2024

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Starting this month with a look at assorted volume/thickness data, here is the CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness map for March 31st:

Plus the associated volume graph, which still suffers from a gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for March 2024 is also available. Here’s the end of month thickness map:

Plus the calculated volume graph:

Especially for Peter, here too is the DMI’s chart of monthly Arctic sea ice volume for March:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in April 2024 →

Tony Heller Sets Arctic Shark Jump World Record!

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This is a photograph of a Greenland shark:

(c) Eric Ste Marie https://www.husseylab.com/

You will no doubt be astonished to learn that shark jumping supremo Tony Heller has just jumped over the entire East Greenland population of this long lived but officially vulnerable species. Without harming a single one!

Over on XTwitter “Steve”/Tony was recently shown this video which graphically reveals the declining age of the sea ice in the Arctic Ocean:

He responded as follows:

According to the “summary for skeptics” of the IPCC Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate:

Winds associated with the climatological Arctic sea level pressure pattern drive the Beaufort Gyre and the Transpolar Drift Stream, which retains sea ice within the central Arctic Basin, and exports sea ice out of the Fram Strait, respectively. There is high confidence that sea ice drift speeds have increased since 1979, both within the Arctic Basin and through Fram Strait, attributed to thinner ice and changes in wind forcing. Fram Strait sea ice area export estimates range between 600,000 to 1 million km² of ice annually, which represents approximately 10% of the ice within the Arctic Basin

However according to Tony Heller the total “amount” of sea ice in the Arctic is “a largely meaningless metric”. Tony 1 – IPCC 0.

Earlier today one of his flock of faithful followers spotted the time travelling USS Skate (SSN -578) casting a mysterious shadow on the sea ice 65 years to the day after surfacing in an alleged giant polynya at the North Pole:

Hence for Tony’s next astounding acrobatic accomplishment he has boldly undertaken to walk a tightrope from the mightiest of the Great White Con Ivory Towers, here on the shores of Santa’s secret summer swimming pool, to the tip of USS Skate’s tallest communications antenna.

With NO SAFETY NET!

“Snow White” felt compelled to applaud Mr. Heller’s bravery in the face of (almost) overwhelming odds as follows:

Watch this space!

Facts About the Arctic in March 2024

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It looks as though the 2024 Arctic sea ice melting season has begun. For much greater detail see the 2024 maximum extent thread. However, here’s the latest JAXA Arctic sea ice extent graph:

Here too is an animation of sea ice motion on the Atlantic periphery, showing the effect of the passage of several Arctic cyclones through the area over the past 5 weeks or so:

[Update – March 4th]

My usual start of month processing hasn’t gone according to plan. Thanks to Lars Kaleschke at the Alfred Wegener Institute for the following information:

SMOS went into safe mode on 22 February 2024 at 05:10 UTC for reasons that are still under investigation.

The spacecraft has been back in nominal mode since 25 February 2024 and on 27 February 2024, the MIRAS instrument was switched on and is currently performing well.

The reload of the nominal acquisition planning is underway, and if all science data quality checks are positive, nominal data production and dissemination will resume in the coming days.

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in March 2024 →

The 2024 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Extent, , ,

“The time has come”, the Walrus said, “to talk of many things… Of why the sea is boiling hot, and whether pigs have wings“.

And also about the assorted different Arctic sea ice extent metrics, and in particular their respective maxima for 2024.

Here is Zack Labe’s overview of previous years’ maxima from a few days ago:

Zack’s graph displays the JAXA/ViSHOP version of Arctic extent, so here too is JAXA’s own graph of the current sea ice extent:

JAXA extent is based on data from the AMSR2 instrument on the GCOM-W satellite, and shows no evidence yet of a local maximum, let alone an annual one for 2024.

However see also AWI’s “high resolution” AMSR2 area metric:

Continue reading The 2024 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent →

Will the AMO Save Arctic Sea Ice?

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According to Michael Mann he coined the name “Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation”:

Two decades ago, in an interview with science journalist Richard Kerr for the journal Science, I coined the term the “Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation” (the “AMO” for short) to describe an internal oscillation in the climate system resulting from interactions between North Atlantic ocean currents and wind patterns. These interactions were thought to lead to alternating decades-long intervals of warming and cooling centered in the extratropical North Atlantic that play out on 40-60 year timescales (hence the name). Think of the purported AMO as a much slower relative of the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), with a longer timescale of oscillation (multidecadal rather than interannual) and centered in a different region (the North Atlantic rather than the tropical Pacific).

More recently Mann et al. claimed that in actual fact the AMO does not exist.

For several decades the existence of interdecadal and multidecadal internal climate oscillations has been asserted by numerous studies based on analyses of historical observations, paleoclimatic data and climate model simulations. Here we use a combination of observational data and state-of-the-art forced and control climate model simulations to demonstrate the absence of consistent evidence for decadal or longer-term internal oscillatory signals that are distinguishable from climatic noise. Only variability in the interannual range associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation is found to be distinguishable from the noise background.


More recently still I discovered the source of Matt’s optimistic, AMO based prediction of Arctic sea ice recovery. Here is the latest edition, courtesy of Roger “Tallbloke” Tattersall:

During my conversation with Roger on his blog yesterday he made an at least vaguely testable prediction:

Well at least we don’t need you to cease prevaricating to see what the correlation coefficients for the two trendlines says about it. We’ll see how the differential changes in the coming months. AMO sine wave approximation wins by 2.9% at the moment.

“Now answer mine. In what way is your green line related to ‘the physics of the sea ice annual melt/freeze cycle?’?

In the same way the IPCC’s linear projection is. They are both hypotheses, supported by theory and observations. (one of which will be proved incorrect by 2028).

When I enquired further, Rog helpfully elucidated:

“It may be similarly obvious to you, but where does your green line come from in the second image?“

It’s just a 65yr sine wave in phase with the AMO, scaled to best fit the PIOMAS data.

I don’t yet know if these things come in threes, but “Eli the Pit Bull” made a similar “prediction” on XTwitter:

Your wish is my command Eli!

P.S. In partial answer to the question posed by Tom below, I’ve hurriedly created these two graphs from the PIOMAS gridded data numbers as crunched into regions by Steven at the ASIF:

In this case “Atlantic” = Barents + East Greenland Seas, and “Pacific” = Okhotsk + Bering + Chukchi +Beaufort. E&OE!

They look broadly similar to my ageing eyeballs.

[Update – February 20th]

In response to Neil’s comment below, here is Roger’s alternative view of PIOMAS volume versus the AMO, which he added below his repost of Ron Clutz’s Arctic article on the “Science (Doesn’t) Matters” blog :

Whilst Neil is here, I’ll add my record of the comments that Ron Clutz has now deleted from his “moderation queue” and which will henceforth be invisible to his flock of faithful followers until hell freezes over:

Do you have any comment Neil?

Watch this space! (For 4 more years at least)

Time for Toby Young to Stop all the Fudges, Omissions and Outright Deceptions.

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As I surmised only yesterday:

The so called “skeptics” are probably already salivating over that image!

The name may not be familiar on the other side of the Atlantic, but here in the once United Kingdom Mr. Toby Young self identifies as “skeptical”, having named his web site the “Daily Sceptic”. This morning he Xweeted thus:

The linked article was written by the Daily Sceptic’s alleged “Environment Editor” Chris Morrison. Mr. Morrison Xweeted thus:

You will perhaps have already noted that Chris and Toby both appear to have an irrational fear of what they refer to as “Net Zero”? Next let’s take a look at how this fear leads Chris to “lie by omission” and indulge in “outright deceptions”.

His article begins by asserting some way above the graph at the top of this post that:

Arctic sea ice continued its stonking recovery last month, recording its 24th highest level in the 45-year modern satellite record.

If you follow that link you will perhaps notice that it takes you to an archive of the NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice News article entitled “Fast December expansion” which includes a different graph of Arctic sea ice extent? This one to be exact:

The article also notes that:

Average Arctic sea ice extent for December 2023 was 12.00 million square kilometers (4.63 million square miles), ninth lowest in the 45-year satellite record

You may ask yourself “Where on Earth did Chris and Toby pluck their ’24th highest level in the 45-year modern satellite record’ assertion from?”. A reasonable first guess might be the NSIDC article entitled “Nothing Swift about January’s Arctic sea ice” that contained the graph at the top. However that confidently states:

The year 2024 began with an average January Arctic sea ice extent of 13.92 million square kilometers (5.37 million square miles), the twentieth lowest in the 45-year satellite record.

Would you categorise these no doubt inadvertent errors as a “fudge”, or a “lie by omission”, or perhaps even an “outright deception”?

Another thing I wrote yesterday was:

However I’m willing to bet a thousand pretend pounds that they won’t publish this map as well:

I must be psychic, because Chris and Toby did not publish that map of “measured” Arctic sea ice thickness anomaly. And unfortunately any of their flock of faithful followers that did no doubt inadvertently manage to click the convenient link still wouldn’t have seen it or its companion:

Nor would they have been able to read the accompanying text:

Sea ice thickness can be estimated from satellite-borne altimeters. Currently, two altimeters are providing thickness estimates over the Arctic Ocean. One is the NASA Ice, Cloud, Land elevation Satellite 2 (ICESat-2), a laser altimeter; ICESat-2 data products are archived at the NASA Snow and Ice Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC) at NSIDC. The other is the European Space Agency’s (ESA’s) CryoSat-2, a radar altimeter. In combination with estimates for thin regions from the ESA Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) satellite, CryoSat-2 provides daily updated weekly average thickness.

As Arctic sea ice extent starts approaching its maximum, ice thickness can provide an indication of the state of the ice cover. The most recent (mid-December 2023) thickness analysis from the ESA SMOS & CryoSat-2 Sea Ice Data Product Processing and Dissemination Service at Alfred Wegener Institute indicates up to 1.25 meters (4.1 feet) thicker ice than the 2011 to 2023 average over the Siberian side of the Arctic, with ice on the North American side up to 1.25 meters (4.1 feet) thinner than average. This suggests that there may be a slower melt out of ice in the Siberian coastal seas, but perhaps faster in the Beaufort Sea

How much faith do you suppose one should put in the rest of Mr. Morrison’s purple prose, which includes such gems as:

As reported previously in the Daily Sceptic, the ice climbed to a 21-year high on January 8th. Good news, of course, for ice fans and polar bears, but frankly a bit of a disaster if you are forecasting future summer swimming galas at the North Pole to promote a collectivist Net Zero agenda.

and no doubt inadvertently mocks the greatest living British national treasure as follows:

The recovery in Arctic sea ice has been steady if slow and this has enabled the alarums to hang on in the mainstream headlines. Of course it could go into reverse, nobody really knows, least of all Sir David Attenborough who told BBC viewers in 2022 that the summer ice could all be gone by 2035. He relied, needless to say, on a computer model.

That was obviously a slip of the virtual typesetter’s inky finger. It should of course have read:

Least of all Chris Morrison and Toby Young.

since it remains a mystery where their “24th highest level in the 45-year modern satellite record” assertion originated. Your suggestions are welcome, in the space provided for that purpose below.

To be continued…

Facts About the Arctic in February 2024

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A change is perhaps even better than a rest? Let’s start February with a reminder that following close behind another recent Arctic cyclone, Storm Ingunn caused red weather warnings for high winds and avalanches in Norway two days ago:

By yesterday evening another long period, storm driven swell was arriving at the sea ice edge in the Fram Strait, and to a lesser extent in the Barents Sea:

By this morning Ingunn had merged with the remnants of the prior cyclone, as revealed in Climate Reanalyzer’s visualisation of the latest GFS model run::

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in February 2024 →

Climate Disinformation at a Glance

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I was mildly surprised when a somewhat “skeptical” interlocutor of my Arctic alter ego linked to “Climate at a Glance” in the course of our alleged “debate”. I was even more surprised to discover that the far end of the suggested link was not NOAA’s familiar overview of the Arctic temperature trend:

but instead a similarly named web site proudly sponsored by the Heartland Institute:

The “Climate at a Glance” home page currently features the Arctic at the top, and it probably won’t surprise you to learn that the linked article is full of half truths and untruths about “Snow White’s” favourite topic? Here are the Heartland Institute’s key Arctic takeaways:

  1. Arctic sea ice melts and refreezes every year, typically peaking in March, while the summer minimum typically occurs in September.
  2. Many scientists, politicians, and media sources wrongly predicted Arctic sea ice would disappear in the summer.
  3. Satellite data show the summer minimum sea ice has not decreased at all since 2007, and instead has formed a stable level after a temporary low in 2012.

Snow cannot argue with number one, but the evidence provided for number 2 includes a blatant untruth. Allegedly:

In 2008 NSIDC scientist Mark Serreze told ABC News that the Arctic could be “ice free” that summer.

However the linked ABC News article actually states that Mark said:

There is this thin first-year ice even at the North Pole at the moment. This raises the spectre – the possibility that you could become ice free at the North Pole this year.

It even goes on to clarify that:

Despite its news value in the media, the North Pole being ice free is not in itself significant. To scientists, Serreze points out, “this is just another point on the globe”.

However evidently for the Heartland Institute’s learned author the “North Pole” is synonymous with “the Arctic”! Equally evidently the Heartland Institute haven’t actually spoken to Mark Serreze about their scurrilous assertion. When I interviewed him in 2014 concerning the matter:

Mark confirmed to me that he still stood by his 2030 estimate for the onset of a seasonally ice free Arctic, although “most models say more like 2050”.

Moving on to takeaway number 3, the “Climate at a Glance” article on the “Underlying Science” of “Arctic Sea Ice” also links to a recent academic article, and needless to say mispresents its findings. According to the Heartland Institute:

The sea ice minimum in September 2023 was essentially the same as it was in 2007, when all the predictions of “ice free summers” began. Moreover, data from 2007 to 2023 show a zero net-change over the past 17 years. The flat trend from 2007 to 2023 suggest a regime shift in the Arctic sea ice system to a new stable level.

The “regime shift” in Arctic sea ice age and thickness should come as no surprise to our regular readers, but the “new stable level” assertion will come as a big surprise to the authors of the paper in question. They state that in their discussion that:

Our analysis demonstrates the long-lasting impact of climate change on Arctic sea ice through reduced residence time, suggesting an irreversible response of Arctic sea ice thickness connected to an increase of ocean heat content in areas of ice formation…

Impacts of this regime shift in Arctic sea ice on the pan-Arctic environment are extensive and require further investigation.

To be continued…