The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows the East Siberian and Laptev Seas almost completely refrozen. However, refreeze of the Kara Sea has barely begun:
Across the Arctic as a whole the refreeze has slowed significantly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now 2nd lowest in the satellite era:
However, average NSIDC extent for the month of October was higher than last year and above the linear trend:
The ERA5 MSLP map for October shows high pressure over Siberia, associated with lower than normal air temperatures at 925 hPa across the region. However, temperatures across almost the entire Arctic Ocean were above normal:
High Arctic freezing degree days based on DMI >80N data were lowest for the date at the beginning of November:
Bear in mind the caveats about the current lack of reliable SMOS data on the Atlantic side of the Arctic, and that Sentinel 3 data is only incorporated from Autumn 2023.
Yes. NSIDC satellite data shows Arctic September sea ice extent declined from ~6.5 million km² in the early 2000s to ~4.2 million km² by 2024, while PIOMAS volume estimates fell from ~12,000 km³ to under 4,000 km³. Shellenberger's claim ignores these multi-decadal trends, though…
By way of additional background information, Wikipedia asserts that:
Grok is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by xAI. It was launched in November 2023 by Elon Musk as an initiative based on the large language model (LLM) of the same name. Grok has apps for iOS and Android and is integrated with the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Tesla vehicles, and Tesla’s Optimus robot. The chatbot is named after the verb grok, coined by American author Robert A. Heinlein in his 1961 science fiction novel Stranger in a Strange Land to describe a deeper than human form of understanding.
The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions. Updates since 2023 have shifted the bot politically rightward to provide conservative responses to user queries.
and that:
Michael D. Shellenberger is an American author and journalist. He is the first endowed professor at the University of Austin, serving as CBR Chair of Politics, Censorship, and Free Speech.
Shellenberger is a prominent heterodox thinker on topics including climate change and homelessness…
An archived photograph in the NHHC image collection: “USN 1040961 USS SKATE (SSN–578)” which shows the submarine moored to the ice pack. flickr.com
A blog article “USS Skate at the North Pole – Truth and Fantasy Fiction” that collects several of the historic photographs and discusses their context. greatwhitecon.info
I asked ChatGPT to check out the final link in more detail. I was informed:
What GreatWhiteCon does well:
It collects and reproduces the historic images and contemporary captions, and discusses how those images have been interpreted (or misinterpreted) over time. That makes it a handy one-stop place to see the pictures and some commentary.
What GreatWhiteCon is not:
It is a blog/analysis piece (2018) rather than an official or archival source. That means its interpretation is useful, but any factual claim that matters (dates, official captions, archival catalog numbers) is best checked against the primary records (Naval History & Heritage Command, National Archives, contemporary magazines, USNI Proceedings).
Grok has a rather different interpretation of what Great White Con does well. Allegedly “Snow White”:
Counters alarmist views… promoting nuanced data interpretation over binary claims.
I was hoping that the September PIOMAS gridded thickness data would have been published by now, but no such luck. Reverting to JAXA/ViSHOP extent, after flatlining for most of September the refreeze has started in earnest over the last two weeks. Extent is currently 12th lowest in the satellite era:
The latest sea ice concentration map from Lars Kaleschke of the Alfred Wegener Institute, based on AMSR2 data, reveals plenty of new ice in the Beaufort Sea, plus a bit more to the north of the Laptev Sea:
The latest sea ice “stage of development” charts from the Canadian Ice Service confirm that, and reveal more new ice that has yet to show up in the AMSR2 data:
[Update – October 11th]
In the continuing absence of PIOMAS gridded thickness data (see below), here’s the latest SMOS/SMAP “thin ice thickness” map:
It appears to be badly affected by radio frequency interference on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Here’s the raw SMOS map:
Further to a previous conversation on the subject, here’s the final NSIDC annual average extent graph for September:
As anticipated, 2025 annual average extent has proved to be the lowest in the satellite era.
[Update – October 16th]
I was hoping that the September edition of the NSIDC’s “Sea Ice Today” analysis would have been published by now, but no such luck. Here’s the latest data announcement from the NSIDC:
Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services.
Sea ice annual maximum and minimum announcements (typically occurring in March and September)
Previously-published Sea Ice Today analysis posts will remain online. The discontinued Sea Ice Today products will no longer update or be maintained, and will be removed in the next several weeks.
In Sea Ice Today’s absence, here’s the MSLP and 925 hPa temperature maps for September, usually contained in the monthly analysis articles:
Plus a hastily constructed graph of the monthly average extent for September:
The Arctic sea ice volume derived therefrom is 5.43 thousand km³. The data is accompanied by the following “Product Degradation Warning”:
SMOS input data continues to be affected by persistent and frequent radio-frequency interference (RFI) in the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas, resulting in missing thin ice thickness measurements. Consequently, sea ice thickness estimates for this region in the product will rely exclusively on radar altimeter data, which may lead to higher reported values than would have been obtained using SMOS.
[Update – October 27th]
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2025 has been belatedly released:
The associated volume graph reveals that the 2025 minimum modelled Arctic sea ice volume was 3.87 thousand km³ on September 12th, which is the 2nd lowest minimum in the PIOMAS record going back to 1979:
Whilst we’re on the topic of sea ice volume, here’s the latest “measured” volume graph:
Note the proviso about recent SMOS data above, and also that the version 3.00 data from AWI is currently only available beginning in Autumn 2023. Prior years shown on the graph above are based on version 2.06 data, which amongst other things does not incorporate Sentinel 3 data.
[Update – October 29th]
Much of the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean has now refrozen:
There is a significant difference between progress of the refreeze on the the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Arctic. Extent in the Chukchi Sea is currently highest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
However, refreeze of the Kara Sea has yet to begin, and extent is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now 6th lowest in the satellite era:
At the beginning of last month JAXA/ViSHOP extent was third lowest for the date in the satellite era. With the date of the 2025 minimum extent rapidly approaching that is no longer the case:
Whilst JAXA extent is now 10th lowest, PIOMAS volume remains second lowest for the date:
Here’s the associated thickness map. Note the change of scale from last month
Compare and contrast that map with the AWI’s sea ice concentration map, particularly in the Beaufort Sea area:
At the beginning of August JAXA/ViSHOP extent is in a “statistical tie” for 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Extent has been declining rapidly for the past few days, and further losses look likely in the Beaufort Sea on either side of an arm of high concentration ice visible in the Alfred Wegener Institute’s map of sea ice concenration:
The ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is starting to look highly fragmented, all the way to the North Pole.
I mentioned the start of Ella Hibbert‘s long voyage in her yacht Yeva over on this year’s Northwest Passage thread. Ella and Yeva have now crossed north of the Arctic Circle near Iceland and have begun their attempt to circumnavigate the Arctic in a single summer by sailing past the north of Iceland in a westerly direction:
I’m opening the 2025 Northwest Passage thread earlier than usual, because of some news you can read if you scroll down. However, let’s first of all get our bearings with the help of this map of the area:
and another map detailing the routes through Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully traversed:
The news I was referring to is that at lunchtime today Ella Hibbert is setting off in her yacht Yeva from Haslar Marina near Portsmouth in southern England for a rather unusual voyage through the Northwest Passage this summer. Here is Ella’s current route plan:
You will note some unusual features. Apparently Ella is intent on taking Route 1 into the Beaufort Sea via McClure Strait. After that she is not heading for the Bering Strait, but is instead taking the route less travelled back to Haslar via the Northern Sea Route. Perhaps even more surprising in this day and age is that Ella has received permission to sail through Russian waters without an ice pilot. She is aiming to complete an entire circumnavigation of the Arctic in a single summer single handed! As Ella puts it, this is “A voyage that should not be possible”:
Ella is hoping to overcome terrifying challenges including icebergs, freezing water and polar bears.
Her journey – which has only recently become possible due to melting polar ice caps – aims to showcase the devastating environmental impact of sea ice decline, both in the Arctic and across the world.
Ella’s voyage also aims to support two charities working tirelessly to protect the Arctic: Polar Bears International and the Ocean Conservancy.
At the end of her voyage, Ella will auction her ship Yeva with proceeds to go to these two charities.
Fresh from his enlightening “debate” with Peter Hadfield about the numerous errors in Climate: The Movie, skeptical superstar Tom Nelson has produced another movie directed by Martin Durkin. The duo’s second cinematic masterpiece is entitled “The Graph That Lied”, and this time around Tom is the star of the show!
Allegedly its subject is:
The graph they built on a lie. The iconic ‘climate’ graph that’s undermining industrial capitalism and taking our freedom…and it’s 100 percent garbage.
Watch this film, and learn the shocking truth.
But as we will see:
This is the shocking truth:
If you want a good laugh, the shocking truth about the Gorilla Science team’s Ig Nobel contender for the climate science prize can be found on their YouTube channel.
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