Tag Archives: MSLP

Facts About the Arctic in March 2026

JAXA Arctic sea ice extent has just reached a new high for the year. At 13.76 million km² extent is currently 4th lowest for the date, just below last year’s maximum of 13.78 million km²:

At the end of February PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume was 2nd lowest for the date at 17.54 km³:

Here is the associated sea ice thickness map:

For comparison purposes, here is the Alfred Wegener Institute’s CryoSat-2/Sentinel 3/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map at the end of February:

and the associated volume graph:

[Update – March 22nd]

JAXA extent is currently lowest for the date in their record going back to 1979. It’s highly likely that the metric peaked on March 7th which is a new record low maximum, albeit by a mere 20 thousand km²:

By way of a contrast, the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s 5 day averaged extent maximum of 14.29 million km² was reached on March 15th:

Here is the mid month update on the AWI’s CryoSat-2/Sentinel 3/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map:

Here too is the associated sea ice volume graph:

Next here are the ERA5 MSLP and 925 hPa air temperature anomaly maps for February 2026, now in “Greenland down” orientation to match the thickness maps:

together with the NSIDC monthly average extent graph for February:

Watch this space!

Facts About the Arctic in February 2026

Hudson Bay has fully frozen over during January. However, there is still open water north of Svalbard and in the North Water Polynya. It’s even possible to go swimming in the Nares Strait according to the latest AMSR2 concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

JAXA extent is currently 3rd lowest for the date, in a “statistical tie” with 2017:

Looking at the third dimension next, PIOMAS volume was second lowest for the date by a whisker at the end of January:

Here’s the associated sea ice thickness map:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in February 2026

Facts About the Arctic in December 2025

The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows that the Pacific side of the Central Arctic Basin is now almost completely refrozen:

On the Atlantic side of the Arctic the Kara Sea is rapidly refreezing:

However, sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and Baffin Bay is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:

Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in December 2025

Facts About the Arctic in May 2025

JAXA/ViSHOP extent is no longer “lowest for the date”! After “flatlining” for most of April the metric is now in the midst of a close knit group of the other years in the 2020s:

The high pressure area over the Central Arctic persisted through the second half of April, and so did the consequent drift of ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic periphery:

AWI’s sea ice area for the Greenland Sea is currently “highest for the date” in the AMSR2 record that started in July 2012:

The offshore winds along the Laptev Sea coast have continued, and sea ice area is now “lowest for the date”:

The first signs of a break in the high pressure dominance are appearing. GFS currently forecasts that a low pressure area will enter the Central Arctic, bring above zero temperatures over the Kara Sea on Sunday:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2025

Facts About the Arctic in February 2025

This isn’t exactly “shock news”, since we (slightly hesitantly!) predicted this 5 days ago.

A GFS 2 meter temperature chart revealing greater than zero degrees Celsius at the North Pole later today:

The 2 meter temperature anomaly at the Pole is almost off the charts:

Plus the cause of these unusual numbers, a cyclone with central pressure of 959 hPa spinning north of Ellesmere Island at 18:00 UTC this evening:

All of which has led to the JAXA/Vishop Arctic sea ice extent being the lowest for the date since 1979 at least by a significant margin:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in February 2025

Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have now refrozen. Consequently Arctic sea ice extent is now increasing more slowly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Introducing the third dimension, here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of October 2024:

Note the change in scale from previous months, to allow for easier comparison with the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute: 

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

Facts About the Arctic in August 2024

At the beginning of August JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

In 2012 extent had just started its unprecedented plunge towards the record September minimum, and 2024 seems certain to cross above the 2012 curve shortly. However, the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals areas of open water across the majority of the Central Arctic Basin:

In particular the sea ice between the North Pole and northern Greenland is remarkably fragmented:

“False colour” image of the North Pole on August 3rd from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in August 2024

Facts About the Arctic in May 2024

Since a certain “sceptic” has recently been comparing 2024 sea ice extent to “20 years ago”, here’s the current JAXA/ViSHOP extent graph of selected years, including 2004:

The CryoSat-2/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice volume graph finishes on April 15th, but older data is being reanalysed and here is the latest version:

The gap in the near real time data due to the problem with the SMOS satellite during the first half of March has been filled in, but the result doesn’t look very convincing to say the least!

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for April 2024 is now available. Here’s the end of month volume graph:

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2024

Facts About the Arctic in February 2024

A change is perhaps even better than a rest? Let’s start February with a reminder that following close behind another recent Arctic cyclone, Storm Ingunn caused red weather warnings for high winds and avalanches in Norway two days ago:

By yesterday evening another long period, storm driven swell was arriving at the sea ice edge in the Fram Strait, and to a lesser extent in the Barents Sea:

By this morning Ingunn had merged with the remnants of the prior cyclone, as revealed in Climate Reanalyzer’s visualisation of the latest GFS model run::

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in February 2024

Facts About the Arctic in September 2023

There’s lots of coverage specifically about assorted Arctic sea ice extent metrics over on the “2023 Minimum Extent” thread. However we’ll start the September open thread ball rolling with a couple of cross posted images.

At the end of August JAXA daily extent was 7th lowest for the date, at 4.49 million km² :

The median prediction of the contributors to the August call by the Sea Ice Prediction Network for the September monthly average extent is 4.6 million km² :

Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in September 2023