Tag Archives: CAA

Northabout Braves the Northwest Passage

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After the briefest of stops in Elson Lagoon behind Point Barrow Northabout is on the move once again:

Northabout-20160829-2000

She’s currently heading out into the Beaufort Sea before following in the giant footsteps of the cruise liner Crystal Serenity in the direction of the Amundsen Gulf and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Here’s the United States National Weather Service’s current ice chart for Alaskan waters:

NWS-Alaska-20160828

There looks to be far less to worry about ice wise on the next leg of the Polar Ocean Challenge than on the previous one! The weather forecast isn’t too bad either, with high pressure over the Beaufort Sea and a fair bit of sunshine. Here’s the Weather Underground forecast for Ulukhaktok, Crystal Serenity’s first port of call in the CAA:

Wunderground-Ulukhaktok-20160829

There is currently a “small craft advisory” warning in effect for the Beaufort Sea coast:

CAPE HALKETT TO FLAXMAN ISLAND-
207 PM AKDT MON AUG 29 2016

…SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON…

TONIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS BUILDING TO 4 FT.

TUE
E WINDS 25 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

TUE NIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

WED
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 6 FT.

WED NIGHT
E WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 5 FT.

THU
NE WINDS 20 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

THU NIGHT
NE WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 4 FT.

FRI
N WINDS 10 KT. SEAS 2 FT.

SAT
N WINDS 15 KT. SEAS 3 FT.

All in all it looks like fairly plain sailing for the foreseeable future, with only occasional moderate headwinds to contend with.

 

[Edit – August 30th]

It seems my “fairly plain sailing” conclusion was overly hasty. According to the latest “Ship’s Log“:

The weather forecast is pants. A 30/35 knot headwind along the coast . No one has the appetite for it, so we are heading North, slacker winds, staysail out, still a choppy sea and uncomfortable, but not as bad as 30 knots. Hopefully no ice tonight on my watch.

This is the end result:

Northabout-20160830-2200

As Phil points out below:

Our next stop along the North West Passage is Tuktoyaktuk. That’s when we can use a pontoon, get rid of our rubbish, fill the tanks, do the laundry and have a shower. 500nm away.

 

[Edit – August 31st]

The Polar Ocean Challenge team report via Twitter:

 

[Edit – September 3rd]

Last night Northabout reached Tuktoyaktuk near the delta of the great Mackenzie River:

Northabout-20160903-1000

The Polar Ocean Challenge team have had some repairs to do after the stormy start to their trip from Barrow:

They have some more to carry out in Tuk too. Despite the great “groove” displayed above Ben Edwards reports that:

Joy of joys, the auto-helm’s stopped working. Dad (Steve Edwards, crew), thinks he knows why so we’ll hopefully be able to fix it in Tuk. In the meantime we’re back to helming by hand. This is a mixed blessing, on the one hand it’s really irritating to have to helm in large swells and with a strong headwind because any movement you make is at first ignored, and then exaggerated by, the wind. So it’s hard to keep a decent track and it makes it harder to look out for ice. On the other hand, moving and putting effort into the steering keeps you warm which is nice and it means you don’t have to put as many clothes on which is also nice because when you go down stairs and it’s twenty four degrees it can get quite uncomfortable.

 

[Edit – September 4th]

Northabout has just left Tuktoyaktuk:

Northabout-20160904-1445

Her crew have been refreshed and her auto-helm has been repaired with the assistance of numerous people from Tuk:

We all had our job lists, ice lights, bilge pumps, laundry, shopping but the man who gets the Vodka Salute is unquestionably Steve.

I dropped him off wth Willard. Two peas in a pod. They made a broken Pilot Spigot. That sounds quite easy but it took the whole day in a machine shop in a container, working to fine tolerances, and many modifications. Fitting it in the bowels of the Lazzerette in cold weather and driving rain. It worked first time. Brilliant effort.

Here’s the current weather forecast for the area:

Issued 07:00 AM MDT 04 September 2016
Today Tonight and Monday

Wind – Northwest 15 knots diminishing to light late this morning then becoming northwest 15 Monday morning.
Waves

Seas – 1 metre.

Weather & Visibility – Chance of showers changing to periods of rain near noon then to chance of showers tonight and Monday. Fog patches dissipating early this evening.

My famous last words? Plain sailing by the look of it!

 

[Edit – September 5th]

Northabout has just rounded Cape Bathurst, the northernmost point of mainland Northwest Territories:

Northabout-20160905-0930

I wonder if her crew will take a close look at the nearby Smoking Hills?

 

[Edit – September 6th]

Northabout gave the Smoking Hills a miss and headed strait for Cape Parry. She has already crossed the Amundsen Gulf and is heading into the Dolphin & Union Strait:

Northabout-20160906-1200

According to Ben Edwards’ latest blog post:

In light of the lack of ice and in the spirit of saving time we’ve decided not to stop in Cambridge Bay or Pond Inlet and go straight on to Upernavik in Greenland before doing our crew change. Looking at the ice maps at the moment it seems we’ll be able to get through with little or no trouble, though this is almost bound to change, if it stays that way we’ll reach Upernavik in about fourteen days. I’m looking forward to it!

 

[Edit – September 7th]

Northabout has reached Coronation Gulf this morning (UTC):

Northabout-20160907-0930

According to their recent reports the plan is to pass Pond Inlet without stopping. The weather up there is starting to look rather wintry:

PondInlet-20160907

 

[Edit – September 9th]

The Polar Ocean Challenge team report via Twitter that they have seen and chatted to David Scott Cowper:

as well as spotting some more ice:

 

[Edit – September 10th]

This morning Northabout is rapidly approaching the western entrance to Bellot Strait:

northabout-20160910-1300

Their stated intentions are to head past Pond Inlet and across Baffin Bay to Upernavik in Greenland. Assuming they initially follow the same route as Crystal Serenity they will soon to need to pick their way past some bergy bits in Prince Regent Inlet before negotiating some currently “wispy” areas of sea ice as they enter Lancaster Sound. Here is the current Canadian Ice Service chart for the area:

resolute-20160909-1800

plus a rather cloudy “visual” image:

lancaster-suomi-20160909

The current weather forecast for Pond Inlet doesn’t suggest the parts of the Northwest Passage still on Northabout’s route are going to start refreezing just yet:

pondinlet-20160910

Currently there is an obvious passage past the existing ice, but that may of course have changed by the time Northabout gets there.

 

[Edit – September 10th PM]

Northabout has just emerged safely from the eastern end of Bellot Strait:

northabout-20160910-1900

I wonder if her crew will stop to make a new entry in the visitors book at Fort Ross?

 

[Edit – September 11th]

Here’s the latest CIS ice chart:

resolute-20160910-1800

The gap between the coast and the yellow area of 4-6/10 concentration ice has closed considerably, and there’s now a broad expanse of 1-3/10 ice which Northabout may be forced to try and wend her way through. A change in wind direction would come in very handy, and that’s just what the ECMWF forecast at Windyty is suggesting for Sunday 11th:

ecmwf-20160911-1200

Just what the doctor ordered?

 

[Edit – September 11th PM]

Video shot from Northabout’s drone of her ice-free passage through Bellot Strait:

However the passage from Prince Regent Inlet into Lancaster Sound has not proved to be ice-free!

 

[Edit – September 11th 20:30 UTC]

Northabout is obviously endeavouring to skirt around the eastern edge of the 4-6/10 old ice in her path:

northabout-20160911-2130

Today’s CIS ice concentration chart suggests there isn’t much room to spare:

resolute-20160911-1800

The stage of development chart does reveal some new ice, but it’s well to the north of Northabout’s route through Lancaster Sound to Pond Inlet:

resolute-devel-20160911-1800

Somewhat belatedly, here’s a Sentinel 1A synthetic aperture radar image of the sea ice Northabout is squeezing past as we speak:

s1a_ew_grdm_1sdh_20160911t125111_c6c8

 

[Edit – September 12th]

Northabout has emerged safely into Lancaster Sound, and is bypassing Pond Inlet in order to head strait across Baffin Bay:

northabout-20160912-1800

Here are a couple of videos of some remnants of sea ice on her once again eastward travels:

There are several more on the Polar Ocean Challenge web site.

With all that ice now safely behind her Northabout has new dangers to face. Wind and waves! Let’s take a look at the WaveWatch III “surf forecast” for Baffin Bay over the next few days. A low pressure area is heading in Northabout’s direction from across the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. By Wednesday morning (UTC) the resultant wind field looks like this:

u-component_of_wind_surface-in-multi_2-glo_30m-20160912_00058

By Wednesday afternoon those winds of around 15 m/s will have produced waves in Baffin Bay that are forecast to have reached over 3 meters high:

significant_height_of_combined_w-in-multi_2-glo_30m-20160912_00063

and what’s more they won’t be just wind waves. A modest swell with a period of over 12 seconds is predicted too:

mean_period_of_swell_waves_order-in-multi_2-glo_30m-20160912_00063

I’m sure the Polar Ocean Challenge team will be doing their level best to be safely on the opposite side of Baffin Bay by the time the worst of the weather arrives!

 

Previous Polar Ocean Challenge articles:

Non Fiction:

“Northabout Races for the Date Line”

“Northabout Meets Some Serious Sea Ice”

“Northabout Bides Her Time”

“Northabout’s Great Adventure”

Satire:

“Could Northabout Sail to the North Pole?”

Fiction:

“Is the Polar Ocean Challenge About to End in Disaster?“

The Northwest Passage in 2016

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Our coverage of the Northwest Passage is starting somewhat earlier then usual in 2016. That’s because an educational comment of mine seems to have gone permanently missing over at Andrew Montford’s blog. Over there commenter “Golf Charlie” suggested that:

Perhaps based on rumours, or folk stories, the possibility of a North West Passage, was the answer to many peoples dreams of wealth, fame and fortune. The Franklin Expedition set off, with all confidence, knowing that there had been an unprecedented retreat in Arctic sea ice extent. They never came home. The ships then sent to rescue them, never came home either, but some survivors did.

In July 2010, due to unprecedented ice loss, a team set out to find HMS Investigator, (one of the rescue ships) and found her within 15 minutes, exactly where she was trapped and abandoned. How had she got there?

This may be just a load of boring and irrelevant history to you, but as an ice expert keen to lecture others, it just seems strange that you don’t acknowledge the fact that before man made CO2 emissions could possibly had any remote chance of shrinking sea ice, it had all happened before.

It is likely that whatever caused the ice to retreat in the 1830s/40s, may have caused the current retreat. As no attempt has been made to explain this historical retreat, it seems premature to jump to conclusions about the present. What stories and folklore convinced Franklin there was a NWP? Had it opened before? Did the Vikings circumnavigate the North Pole? No one knows for sure.

Here’s the beginnings of my by now expanded reply:

I am already very familiar with the sorry tale of Franklin’s ill fated expedition. By way of some more recent Northwest Passage history, were you previously aware that Charles Hedrich completed his own multi-year voyage through the NWP last summer? His vessel was much smaller than Franklin’s:

“He is now, the first man to have rowed solo the North-West Passage.”

charles_hedrich_pond_inlet

It’s not terribly clear, but apparently Charlie thinks his “unprecedented ice loss” in the Summer of 2010 had a precedent in the 1840s and/or 50s. Perhaps he will pop in and elucidate? Whilst we wait to see what transpires in that regard, here’s an animation of sea ice concentration across the Northwest Passage last summer:

You will note that the “southern route” taken by Roald Amundsen in Gjøa opens first, ultimately followed by the “main route” via the McClure Strait.

My missing comment also referenced (by way of example!) a 2015 academic journal paper entitled “Ice thickness in the Northwest Passage“. Amongst its other conclusions can be found this:

Global climate models with their coarse resolution likely have difficulty capturing intricate sea ice dynamic processes within the narrow channels of the CAA. Specifically, the import, survival, and thickness of MYI are difficult to predict and may in fact increase during the transition to a sea ice-free Arctic with more mobile ice conditions in the Queen Elizabeth Islands which are located between the Arctic Ocean and NWP. Presumably, MYI from the Arctic Ocean will be more heavily ridged and thicker than locally formed MYI, posing greater danger to transiting ships than locally grown MYI.

Whilst we look forward to the prospects of the “transition to a sea ice-free Arctic”, what about the prospects for the Northwest Passage in the summer of 2016. As you can see from the video there wasn’t much in the way of multi-year sea ice left there by the Autumn of 2015, and there doesn’t seem to have been much transport of ice into the Canadian Arctic Archipelago over the winter either.

NWP-Development-20160328

On top of the ice there will of course be some snow by now. Here’s how the Topaz 4 snow cover map of the area looks at the moment:

Topaz4-CAA-20160404

All in all it looks to me at this early stage of the 2016 Arctic sea ice melting season as though one or more of the assorted routes through the Northwest Passage will be open again this coming summer. Do you suppose that will look like yet another “unprecedented retreat” to “Golf Charlie’s” eyes?

It seems as though a large commercial organisation sees things that way too. Crystal Cruises have concluded that in 2016 the Northwest Passage offers:

The ultimate expedition for the true explorer!

Anchorage to New York on Crystal Serenity
DATES : August 16 – September 17, 2016 (32 Days) CRUISE-ONLY FARES FROM : $21,855 Per Person

More than 18 months of careful planning and analysis has already gone into this project from January 2013 to July 2014, and will continue up to, and through, departure.

Crystal_Serenity

There will not be shore-based cell phone signals along the transit, except in the communities and towns we will be visiting. However, guests are requested to not use this signal when in port, as it will overwhelm the local system and disrupt the communication within the community.

While communication channels may be temporarily limited or unavailable to guests, the ship’s Captain and crew will always have operational and emergency communication throughout the entire voyage.