The latest Alfred Wegener Institute sea ice concentration map shows that the Pacific side of the Central Arctic Basin is now almost completely refrozen:
On the Atlantic side of the Arctic the Kara Sea is rapidly refreezing:
However, sea ice extent in the Barents Sea and Baffin Bay is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Thanks to Going South for the heads up:
By way of additional background information, Wikipedia asserts that:
Grok is a generative artificial intelligence chatbot developed by xAI. It was launched in November 2023 by Elon Musk as an initiative based on the large language model (LLM) of the same name. Grok has apps for iOS and Android and is integrated with the social media platform X (formerly known as Twitter), Tesla vehicles, and Tesla’s Optimus robot. The chatbot is named after the verb grok, coined by American author Robert A. Heinlein in his 1961 science fiction novel Stranger in a Strange Land to describe a deeper than human form of understanding.
The bot has generated various controversial responses, including conspiracy theories, antisemitism, and praise of Adolf Hitler, as well as referring to Musk’s views when asked about controversial topics or difficult decisions. Updates since 2023 have shifted the bot politically rightward to provide conservative responses to user queries.
and that:
Michael D. Shellenberger is an American author and journalist. He is the first endowed professor at the University of Austin, serving as CBR Chair of Politics, Censorship, and Free Speech.
Shellenberger is a prominent heterodox thinker on topics including climate change and homelessness…
University of Austin is not a school recognized by the U.S. National Center for Education Statistics.
In other news, is Grok schizophrenic?
[Update – November 3rd]Grok seem to having a lot of trouble answering this simple question:
Do you have a link to the image(s) in the U.S. Naval Institute Photo Archive you are referring to?
— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) November 3, 2025
I ask because I can't find them!
He/she/it/they has been pondering the problem for over an hour now.
[Update – 15:00 UTC November 3rd]I got bored waiting for Grok to get back to me, so I asked ChatGPT much the same question. I was informed:
Suggested links
The Naval History & Heritage Command (NHHC) entry: “Skate II (SSN-578)” on history.navy.mil — gives the official history and mentions the March 17, 1959 surfacing. history.navy.mil
An archived photograph in the NHHC image collection: “USN 1040961 USS SKATE (SSN–578)” which shows the submarine moored to the ice pack. flickr.com
A blog article “USS Skate at the North Pole – Truth and Fantasy Fiction” that collects several of the historic photographs and discusses their context. greatwhitecon.info
I asked ChatGPT to check out the final link in more detail. I was informed:
What GreatWhiteCon does well:
It collects and reproduces the historic images and contemporary captions, and discusses how those images have been interpreted (or misinterpreted) over time. That makes it a handy one-stop place to see the pictures and some commentary.What GreatWhiteCon is not:
It is a blog/analysis piece (2018) rather than an official or archival source. That means its interpretation is useful, but any factual claim that matters (dates, official captions, archival catalog numbers) is best checked against the primary records (Naval History & Heritage Command, National Archives, contemporary magazines, USNI Proceedings).
Grok has a rather different interpretation of what Great White Con does well. Allegedly “Snow White”:
Counters alarmist views… promoting nuanced data interpretation over binary claims.
Today my discussion with Grok on XTwitter turned (amongst other things) to the recent United States Department of Energy “Critical Review of Impacts of Greenhouse Gas Emissions on the U.S. Climate” report.
My conversation with Grok is remarkably reminiscent of mud wrestling with “skeptical” Twitter trolls:
Watch this space!
I was hoping that the September PIOMAS gridded thickness data would have been published by now, but no such luck. Reverting to JAXA/ViSHOP extent, after flatlining for most of September the refreeze has started in earnest over the last two weeks. Extent is currently 12th lowest in the satellite era:
The latest sea ice concentration map from Lars Kaleschke of the Alfred Wegener Institute, based on AMSR2 data, reveals plenty of new ice in the Beaufort Sea, plus a bit more to the north of the Laptev Sea:
The latest sea ice “stage of development” charts from the Canadian Ice Service confirm that, and reveal more new ice that has yet to show up in the AMSR2 data:
In the continuing absence of PIOMAS gridded thickness data (see below), here’s the latest SMOS/SMAP “thin ice thickness” map:
It appears to be badly affected by radio frequency interference on the Atlantic side of the Arctic. Here’s the raw SMOS map:
Further to a previous conversation on the subject, here’s the final NSIDC annual average extent graph for September:
As anticipated, 2025 annual average extent has proved to be the lowest in the satellite era.
[Update – October 16th]I was hoping that the September edition of the NSIDC’s “Sea Ice Today” analysis would have been published by now, but no such luck. Here’s the latest data announcement from the NSIDC:
Effective October 15, 2025, due to non-renewed funding, NSIDC has suspended or reduced several Sea Ice Today tools and services.
Discontinued:
- New monthly and mid-month analysis posts
- Sea ice analysis tool
- Sea Ice Volume
- Sea ice extent spatial comparison tool
Persisting:
- Daily Arctic and Antarctic sea ice images
- ChArctic Interactive Sea Ice Graph
- Links to Sea ice analysis data spreadsheets from the NOAA Sea Ice Index
- Reduced user support
- Sea ice annual maximum and minimum announcements (typically occurring in March and September)
Previously-published Sea Ice Today analysis posts will remain online. The discontinued Sea Ice Today products will no longer update or be maintained, and will be removed in the next several weeks.
In Sea Ice Today’s absence, here’s the MSLP and 925 hPa temperature maps for September, usually contained in the monthly analysis articles:
Plus a hastily constructed graph of the monthly average extent for September:
The Alfred Wegener Institute has published the first CryoSat-2/Sentinel 3/SMOS merged Arctic sea ice thickness data of Autumn 2025:
The Arctic sea ice volume derived therefrom is 5.43 thousand km³. The data is accompanied by the following “Product Degradation Warning”:
[Update – October 27th]SMOS input data continues to be affected by persistent and frequent radio-frequency interference (RFI) in the Barents, Kara, and Laptev Seas, resulting in missing thin ice thickness measurements. Consequently, sea ice thickness estimates for this region in the product will rely exclusively on radar altimeter data, which may lead to higher reported values than would have been obtained using SMOS.
The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2025 has been belatedly released:
The associated volume graph reveals that the 2025 minimum modelled Arctic sea ice volume was 3.87 thousand km³ on September 12th, which is the 2nd lowest minimum in the PIOMAS record going back to 1979:
Whilst we’re on the topic of sea ice volume, here’s the latest “measured” volume graph:
Note the proviso about recent SMOS data above, and also that the version 3.00 data from AWI is currently only available beginning in Autumn 2023. Prior years shown on the graph above are based on version 2.06 data, which amongst other things does not incorporate Sentinel 3 data.
[Update – October 29th]Much of the Siberian side of the Arctic Ocean has now refrozen:
There is a significant difference between progress of the refreeze on the the Pacific and Atlantic sides of the Arctic. Extent in the Chukchi Sea is currently highest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
However, refreeze of the Kara Sea has yet to begin, and extent is currently lowest for the date in the AMSR2 record:
Pan Arctic JAXA/ViSHOP extent is now 6th lowest in the satellite era:
The conversation continues over on the November open thread.
At the beginning of last month JAXA/ViSHOP extent was third lowest for the date in the satellite era. With the date of the 2025 minimum extent rapidly approaching that is no longer the case:
Whilst JAXA extent is now 10th lowest, PIOMAS volume remains second lowest for the date:
Here’s the associated thickness map. Note the change of scale from last month
Compare and contrast that map with the AWI’s sea ice concentration map, particularly in the Beaufort Sea area:
At the beginning of August JAXA/ViSHOP extent is in a “statistical tie” for 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Extent has been declining rapidly for the past few days, and further losses look likely in the Beaufort Sea on either side of an arm of high concentration ice visible in the Alfred Wegener Institute’s map of sea ice concenration:
The ice on the Atlantic side of the Arctic is starting to look highly fragmented, all the way to the North Pole.
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in August 2025At the beginning of July JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent is still “lowest for the date” in their record going back to 1979:
The PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for June 30th reveals that the previously thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has been noticeably thinning:
The associated volume graph shows that the 2025 curve has entered the pack of other recent years. and is now 4th lowest for the date:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in July 2025I’ve been away on a “road trip” during the first part of June, so this month’s initial update is a trifle tardy.
After a 100k “break” yesterday JAXA/ViSHOP extent is currently in a tie with 2024 for 4th lowest for the date, and still slightly below 2012.
The PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for May 31st continues to show plenty of thick ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas:
However, the associated volume graph shows the 2025 curve only slightly above the previous low for the date in 2017:
I have recently received a disturbing email from the NSIDC, which reads as follows:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in June 2025JAXA/ViSHOP extent is no longer “lowest for the date”! After “flatlining” for most of April the metric is now in the midst of a close knit group of the other years in the 2020s:
The high pressure area over the Central Arctic persisted through the second half of April, and so did the consequent drift of ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic periphery:
AWI’s sea ice area for the Greenland Sea is currently “highest for the date” in the AMSR2 record that started in July 2012:
The offshore winds along the Laptev Sea coast have continued, and sea ice area is now “lowest for the date”:
The first signs of a break in the high pressure dominance are appearing. GFS currently forecasts that a low pressure area will enter the Central Arctic, bring above zero temperatures over the Kara Sea on Sunday:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in May 2025JAXA/ViSHOP extent finished the month of March “lowest for the date” once again:
However, since then the graph has been “flatlining” and extent is now above 2019 and rapidly approaching the rest of the recent pack.
At the end of March PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 21.21 thousand km³, still 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:
Here is the corresponding PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for March 31st 2025:
For comparison purposes, here is the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in April 2025After spending several weeks in the unfortunate position of lowest for the date, JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent has just risen above 2015. By a mere 10,000 km²:
Despite the fact that JAXA extent is still rising, AWI extent has potentially already achieved its maximum value for 2025:
Somewhat belatedly, here is the PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for February 28th 2025:
At the end of February Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 19.32 thousand km³, still 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:
For comparison purposes, here is the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:
AWI have also released a new version of their thickness product, incorporating additional data from the two Sentinel 3 satellites. The thickness data for February 28th, looks slightly different:
Continue reading Facts About the Arctic in March 2025