First of all Wipneus has been very quick off the mark this month with his PIOMAS gridded thickness map. Here is what it reveals for the last day of March:
Here too is the latest PIOMAS volume graph:
together with the associated anomaly graph:
They show 2018 still in second lowest position, albeit much closer to third place than last year’s line, which is currently leading the pack by a considerable margin.
By way of comparison here are the current Arctic sea ice thickness maps from SMOS:
and CryoSat-2:
All eyes are still on the Bering and Chukchi Seas, where significant extent declines look likely over the coming days.
Meanwhile “JAXA” extent has just edged above 2016!
[Edit – April 11th]
The focus has been on the Bering and Chukchi Seas until now. However there were clear skies over the Mackenzie Delta yesterday, revealing some open(ish) areas in the Beaufort Sea:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on April 10th 2018, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
There’s only the merest hint of a blip on the area graph so far though:
It will be interesting to see if the decline in Beaufort Sea area continues from here, or whether this year’s “flatline” resumes and continues for a while longer.
[Edit – April 19th]
It’s not so apparent on the other extent metrics, but as the periphery melts the high resolution AMSR2 version looks to be heading into virgin territory on the downside:
According to the latest edition of the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s “Arctic Sea Ice News”
On March 17, 2018, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.48 million square kilometers (5.59 million square miles), the second lowest in the 39-year satellite record, falling just behind 2017. This year’s maximum extent is 1.16 million square kilometers (448,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.64 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles).
The four lowest seasonal maxima have all occurred during the last four years. The 2018 maximum is 60,000 square kilometers (23,200 square miles) above the record low maximum that occurred on March 7, 2017.
Here’s a close up view of recent maxima via the NSIDC’s Charctic interactive sea ice graph:
Next let’s take a look at extent data from the Japanese National Institute of Polar Research, colloquially referred to as “JAXA extent”
In this case the maximum was 13.89 million square kilometers, also on March 17th.
Here too are the extent and area graphs based on Wipneus’ processing of the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 based concentration data:
They highlight the surge in Arctic sea ice area in the middle of March due to the sudden “cold snap”:
Looking at the third Arctic dimension, here’s the latest SMOS thickness map from the University of Bremen:
and here’s the latest CryoSat-2 thickness map:
They reveal large areas of relatively thin sea ice in the Okhotsk and Barents Seas where the ice can now be expected to melt as quickly as it formed. There is also remarkably little sea ice in the Bering Sea for the time of year:
After a comparatively cool May, surface air temperatures in the high Arctic are back up to “normal”:
The condition of the sea ice north of 80 degrees is far from normal however. Here’s what’s been happening to the (normally) land fast ice north west of Greenland:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the sea ice north west of Greenland breaking up on June 2nd 2017
Further south surface melt has set in across the southern route through the Northwest Passage:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Coronation Gulf on June 1st 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
Whilst the gap with previous years has narrowed during May, PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume is still well below all previous years in their records:
The PIOMAS gridded thickness graph suggests that a large area of thick ice is currently sailing through the Fram Strait to ultimate oblivion:
and just in case melt ponds are now affecting those numbers here is extent as well:
The rate of decrease is inexorably increasing! 2012 extent is currently still well above that of 2017, but those positions may well be reversed by the end of June? Here’s NSIDC’s view on the matter:
[Edit – June 8th]
As requested by Tommy, here’s the current Arctic Basin sea ice area:
This includes the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas along with the Central Arctic. It excludes the Atlantic periphery, which currently looks like this:
[Edit – June 10th]
At long last a clear(ish) image of water from the Lena Delta spreading out across the fast ice in the Laptev Sea:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Lena Delta on June 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Lena Delta on June 10th 2012, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
[Edit – June 11th]
DMI’s daily mean temperature for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel has reached zero degrees Celsius almost exactly on the climatological schedule:
We calculate our freezing degree days on the basis of the freezing point of Arctic sea water at -1.8 degrees Celsius. On that basis this winter’s grand total of 3740 was reached on June 1st:
Despite the “coolish” recent weather total FDDs are way below the climatology and other recent years. Consequently there’s a lot less sea ice in the Arctic left to melt at the start of this Central Arctic melting season than in any previous year in the satellite record. However whilst there are some melt ponds visible in the Arctic Basin on MODIS, in that respect 2017 is lagging behind both last year and 2012.
A sub 970 hPa cyclone is starting to enter the realms of realistic possibility, and also forecast are some significant waves in the Chukchi Sea and the expanding 2017 “Laptev Bite”:
[Edit – June 27th]
The forecast cyclone was nowhere near as deep as predicted. According to the analysis by Environment Canada it bottomed out at 980 hPa yesterday:
[Edit – June 29th]
O-Buoy 14 is currently firmly embedded in the fast ice of Viscount Melville Sound, deep in the heart of the Northwest Passage. Here’s the view from the buoy’s camera:
In 2017 Antarctic sea ice extent is beating all the records. All flavours of the metric are already below the minimum of all previous years in the satellite record, and it looks like there’s still some more melting left to go. Here’s the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
It seems highly likely that the 2017 Antarctic sea ice minimum extent has now been reached. Here’s the NSIDC 5 day averaged extent graph:
The minimum extent of 2.106 million square kilometers was reached on March 3rd. Here’s the University of Bremen’s Antarctic sea ice concentration map for March 3rd:
It’s far too early to be sure about this yet, but it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the 2017 maximum is already in place. Here’s our favourite high resolution extent graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
The current maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2017 is 13.49 million square kilometers on February 19th. Here’s Arctic sea ice area for good measure:
The current maximum area for 2017 is 12.88 million square kilometers on February 20th. Here also is the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
This reveals a current maximum extent for 2017 of 14.302 million square kilometers on February 20th.
[Edit – March 1st]
Here are the high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs for the end of February:
With each day that passes the highs of February 19th/20th look more likely to have been this years maximum. Nonetheless past experience suggests it’s still far to soon to be sure about that.
[Edit – March 10th]
Arctic sea ice area and extent are declining again, having reached new heights for the year on March 3rd:
However the 2013/14 winter showed a late surge is still possible.
[Edit – March 18th]
A “late surge” is looking increasingly unlikely. That being the case, here is our provisional long term graph of NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent:
Subject to an unanticipated “surge” the 2017 maximum of 14.447 million square kilometers occurred on March 5th.
JAXA extent has dropped steeply over the last couple of days, and it is now once again “lowest for the date since records began”:
The 2017 JAXA maximum of 13.878 million square kilometers occurred on March 6th.
In the continuing absence of updates to Cryosphere Today area, here’s the high resolution Arctic sea ice area graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
The maximum for that particular metric was 13.03 million square kilometers on March 3rd.
September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:
I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?
I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:
Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:
Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?
[Edit – September 3rd]
Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:
It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:
and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:
As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:
Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.
[Edit – September 4th]
An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:
[Edit – September 11th]
Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:
A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:
Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.
[Edit – September 14th]
The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:
Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:
which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:
The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:
Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!
[Edit – September 15th]
With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Need I say more?
[Edit – September 20th]
The September cyclone has now done its worst:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:
2016 Minimum Milestones
September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²
September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²
September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.
September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²
September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²
June has arrived, and according to the Great White Con Arctic sea ice calendar that means the summer surface melting season has started. Once July arrives bottom melt should have started in earnest too, but for now let’s stick to the surface. Here’s the Climate Reanalyzer map of Arctic surface air temperatures at 06:00 UTC this morning:
Green areas are above 0 degrees Celsius, and bear in mind that the melting point of sea ice is at around -1.8 degrees Celsius. The red areas near the East Siberian Sea coast are 25-30 degrees Celsius. Given those sort of temperatures you might well think that some snow and/or ice in that area would be melting, and you would be correct! Here is the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency’s current map of Arctic surface melting:
The assorted shades of blue/grey show the areas where surface melting is already underway. Whilst this melting is taking place you may possibly read in some quarters of the cryodenialosphere that “There is almost no melting going on in the Arctic“. The authors of such nonsense evidently don’t know their proverbial Arctic arse from their elbow.
Here’s how today’s surface melting in the East Siberian Sea looks from space:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the East Siberian Sea on June 4th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
Meanwhile over on the other side of the Arctic, here’s yesterday’s surface melting on “Amundsen’s Route” through the Northwest Passage:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Northwest Passage on June 3rd 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
By way of further illustration of the fact that Arctic sea ice is and has been melting, here is a graph of the current area of sea ice in the all important central area of the Arctic Basin, courtesy of “Wipneus” at Arctische Pinguin:
The areas included are the Central Arctic Basin, plus the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas. The above zero temperatures are forecast to spread across the Central Arctic Basin early next week, whereupon it will be very interesting to discover what happens to the snow around the single ice mass balance buoy currently transmitting near real time data. Here is the current temperature profile for the sea ice underneath IMB buoy 2015F:
The current conditions there are summarised this morning as:
Pos: 82.00 N, 147.45 W
Air Temp: -3.74 C
Air Pres: 1007.42 mb
Snow depth: 21 cm
Ice thickness: 202 cm
Normally by now there would also be a number of webcams beaming back pictures from across the sea ice in the Arctic Basin. However according to NOAA:
Due to funding constraints, it was not possible to deploy new Web Cams in Spring 2016, but deployments in Spring 2017 are planned.
Three of the camera carrying O-Buoys also seem to have failed over the winter, which leaves us with only O-Buoy 14 to reveal the forthcoming melt to us:
O-Buoy 14 image from June 2nd 2016
O-Buoy 14 is currently colocated with Ice Tethered Profiler 89, the yellow object in the foreground, at 77.49° N, 153.92° W, to the north of the Beaufort Sea. ITP 89 measures the temperature and salinity of the water beneath the sea ice and revealed this the last time it managed to take a measurement, a month or so ago:
If you examine the extreme right hand edge of the charts carefully you will no doubt note that the water underneath the ice has recently become both warmer and saltier.
Watch this space!
[Edit – June 5th 2016]
The latest JAXA/ADS map shows that the area of sea ice undergoing surface melting has increased since yesterday, particularly over the Chukchi Sea:
The recent clouds over the Beaufort Sea cleared yesterday. Here’s a close up view of the open water between the big floes from the Suomi satellite:
Skeptical sorts across the cryoblogosphere are in meltdown mode at the moment. They seem to be unaware that satellites don’t last forever in the harsh environment of space, and the individual scientific instruments carried by a satellite don’t either. Some failures are more spectacular than others however. By way of illustration here’s one recent report from Space.com:
The February [2015] explosion of an American military satellite may cause some problems for orbiting spacecraft after all, a new study reports.
The U.S. Air Force’s 20-year-old Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Flight 13 (DMSP-F13) craft blew apart on Feb. 3 after experiencing a power-system faillure. Analyses by the European Space Agency and other organizations found that the cloud of space junk generated by the explosion shouldn’t pose much of a threat to their missions, but the new research suggests that not all spacecraft are in the clear.
Another DMSP satellite started pushing up the metaphorical daisies earlier this year. Last month Space Flight Now reported that:
The U.S. Air Force has been unable to send commands to the service’s newest weather satellite for nearly a month, and engineers are trying to determine if the spacecraft can be salvaged, officials said last week.
The polar-orbiting Defense Meteorological Satellite Program Flight 19, or DMSP F19, spacecraft stopped responding to orders from the ground Feb. 11, the Air Force said in a March 3 press release.
“At this time, it is not known what caused the anomaly or if the satellite will be recovered, and the anomaly is under investigation,” the Air Force said. “There are no other known issues with the satellite.”
Designed for a five-year service life, DMSP F19 launched April 3, 2014, from California atop a United Launch Alliance Atlas 5 rocket. It is the newest in the Air Force’s series of DMSP weather observatories designed to help forecasters predict storms, clouds, fog and dust storms that could inhibit global military operations.
The data provided by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager/Sounder (SSMIS) instrument carried aboard several of the DMSP series of satellites is used by the National Snow and Ice Data Center to calculate their Sea Ice Index metric of Arctic sea ice extent. However suddenly Boulder has a problem. As we reported earlier this week the SSMIS sensor carried by DMSP F17 appears to be malfunctioning. This can be seen in this visualisation of the data from the European Ocean and Sea Ice Satellite Application Facility(OSI-SAF):
Look closely at the top centre of the image to see a large patch of spurious “sea ice”. Here’s the resulting SII extent graph from the NSIDC:
Anthony Watts reported this news in typically fanciful fashion:
There is this small notice on the NSIDC page:
“The daily sea ice extent images are currently displaying erroneous data. NSIDC is investigating.”
It looks to be a problem with the DMSP F17 satellite.
Makes you wonder how long this has been going on and if the anomalously low readings we’ve seen for awhile are due to a slow sensor degradation.
Time will tell.
For a more realistic interpretation of the facts we suggest that instead of reading the propaganda perpetrated at WUWT you instead examine this graph derived using data from the AMSR2 sensor on board the Japanese SHIZUKU satellite:
Mr. Watts evidently takes a very US centric view of these matters, since he neglected to report this timely news bulletin from the OSI-SAF:
Due to the previously reported problems with one of the channels on SSMIS onboard DMSP F17, OSI SAF is now working on replacing DMSP F17 with DMSP F18 in our sea ice products.
Currently, the switch to F18 has been implemented for the ice concentration product (OSI-401). The product dated 20160410 has been reprocessed and is available on our FTP server, ftp://osisaf.met.no/prod/ice/conc/ and ftp://osisaf.met.no/archive/ice/conc/2016/04
The ice edge and type products (OSI-402 and OSI-403) will be updated to use F18 tomorrow, 2016-04-12.
It seems Willis Eschenbach, the current Watts Up With That resident sea ice expert, is already beavering away endeavouring to prove Anthony’s case for him:
We have no way to know if this has been a gradual decrease followed by a failure, so yes, it’s certainly possible that the previous data is bad. Doesn’t mean it is, but we’d be fools not to check.
We suggested a simple check:
Why not compare the NSIDC’s SSMIS data from F-17 with JAXA’s AMSR2 data from Shizuku? Wouldn’t that do the trick?
Willis replied:
I meant that just from the bad reading alone, we don’t know if the previous data is bad. Yes, we can check it in the way you suggest and other ways … which is why I said we’d be fools not to check.
We think that if he does his due diligence he will find that he is in actual fact engaged on a fool’s errand, but time will indeed tell. Let’s wait and see what Willis n Willard can come up with, shall we? Meanwhile we also cannot help but wonder what the dynamic duo might make of our own due diligence replicating the results of another collaboration of theirs:
Arctic sea ice extent has been anomalously low this winter. The greatest anomalies are in the European sector, specifically in the Barents Sea. To what extent are the anomalies associated with warm temperatures?
Which she answered as follows:
So, what might be causing this particular anomaly? Some possibilities are:
Gobal warming (January 2016 was warmest Jan on record, according to the surface temperature analyses
Multidecadal oscillations (e.g. stadium wave) predicts ice recovery to be occurring in the same region (European Arctic) where we see the sea ice decline).
Seasonal weather circulation patterns – this has been a year with with unusual weather patterns, with both low temperature and high temperature records being set.
As regular readers will already be aware we have been blogging about anomalously warm temperatures in the Arctic all year and so felt well qualified to contribute to the “debate”. What a job that turned out to be! Early on in the proceedings the anticipated pronouncement was made by one of Judith’s “denizens”. A link to a ludicrously inaccurate article on Watts Up With That accompanied by the following words of wisdom:
Other measures are high.
Which of course they aren’t! Instead of stating the bleedin’ obvious Professor Curry replied:
I spotted this, no idea what to make of it.
You would think she and her denizens would therefore have been pleased when I attempted to explain to her what to make of it, but you would have been mistaken. The icing on the ad hominem cake was the aforementioned Anthony Watts driving by to accuse me of all sorts of nefarious activities without providing a single shred of evidence and then running for the hills when invited to actually prove his ludicrous allegations.
Since the denizens of “Climate Etc.” aren’t particularly interested let’s take stock here instead shall we? After every Arctic area and extent metric under the sun sitting at “lowest *ever” levels for weeks a recent increase in coverage on the Pacific side of the Arctic has changed that. The most up to date example of that is the JAXA/ADS extent, which currently looks like this:
The latest reading is the merest whisker above 2015’s record low maximum. However in other respects things are most certainly not comparable with 2015. See for example this concentration comparison from Andrew Slater of the NSIDC:
Much more ice on the Pacific periphery where it will all have disappeared by September, as opposed to much less ice on the Atlantic side, even well to the north of 80 degrees latitude where the sun still does not shine. Here’s a video revealing how the sea ice North of the Pacific Ocean has been reacting to the sequence of hurricane force storms that have been passing through the area over the past couple of months:
Now let’s take a look at “near real time” Arctic sea ice thickness as measured by the CryoSat 2 satellite:
Notice the absence of any thick ice in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas, an obvious difference from last year? Notice too the large area of thick ice that looks as though it’s heading towards the Fram strait exit from the Central Arctic. Here’s another video, this time of sea ice movement over on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean:
Those dark areas between Svalbard and the North Pole are suddenly starting to look as though they represent reality rather than a mere “artifact”, although perhaps they are merely transient evidence of yet another Arctic “heat wave”?
We’ve recently been speculating about the effect on the sea ice in the Arctic of varying amounts of weather borne heat, wind and waves. The cumulative effect of all the assorted storms is that today a variety of sea ice metrics are all at their lowest ever level for the date, since their respective records began.
The JAXA/ADS extent was the first to fall below all previous years, and here’s how it looks today:
Note that it shows extent currently decreasing. Next came the Cryosphere Today area, which has also just decreased from the day before:
The latest metric to join the club is the 5 day averaged version of the NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent, which currently reveals:
Would any brave reader care to hazard a guess where and when the assorted Arctic sea ice metrics will eventually reach their maximum values for 2016?
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