Category Archives: News

Facts About the Arctic in February 2025

February 2, 2025NewsAndrew Cotton, CryoSat-2, Cyclone, Extent, GWCABBWSC, JAXA, MSLP, North Pole, PIOMAS, Red Bull, SMOS, Svalbard, Temperature, Volume, WavesJim Hunt

This isn’t exactly “shock news”, since we (slightly hesitantly!) predicted this 5 days ago.

A GFS 2 meter temperature chart revealing greater than zero degrees Celsius at the North Pole later today:

The 2 meter temperature anomaly at the Pole is almost off the charts:

Plus the cause of these unusual numbers, a cyclone with central pressure of 959 hPa spinning north of Ellesmere Island at 18:00 UTC this evening:

All of which has led to the JAXA/Vishop Arctic sea ice extent being the lowest for the date since 1979 at least by a significant margin:

Facts About the Arctic in January 2025

January 6, 2025NewsAMSR2, AWI, Baffin Bay, CAA, CryoSat-2, DMI, Extent, FDD, Hudson Bay, JAXA, Sea Of Okhotsk, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

The New Year began with JAXA/ViSHOP extent lowest for the date in the satellite era, just below 2018 . Since then extent has reduced, and there is now a large gap:

The primary reason for this is the remaining open water in Hudson Bay:

In previous years Hudson Bay has been covered by sea ice by this time of year, but in 2025 a large area remains unfrozen in early January!

Due to the way PIOMAS handles the leap years the last gridded thickness data of 2024 is dated December 30th:

By December 30th Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 13.61 thousand km³, 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

Facts About the Arctic in December 2024

December 5, 2024NewsCryoSat-2, DMI, Extent, FDD, JAXA, NSIDC, PIOMAS, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

Christmas is coming, and even as we speak Snow White is heading for the geographical North Pole to assist Santa’s little helpers in their annual gift delivery mission:

We’ll start the festive season with a graph of JAXA/ViSHOP extent, which is in a “statistical tie” with 2020 for 2nd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of November 2024:

On November 30th Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 9.99 thousand km³, 3rd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

For comparison purposes, here is the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

November 3, 2024NewsAge, AWI, Barents Observer, CryoSat-2, Cyclone, DMI, Extent, Fram Strait, GFS, JAXA, MSLP, New Siberian Islands, Nome, Northern Fleet, NSIDC, NSR, Oleg Golubyev, PIOMAS, Sibir, SMOS, Temperature, Thickness, Utqiaġvik, Volume, Wrangel IslandJim Hunt

The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have now refrozen. Consequently Arctic sea ice extent is now increasing more slowly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Introducing the third dimension, here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of October 2024:

Note the change in scale from previous months, to allow for easier comparison with the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

Facts About the Arctic in October 2024

October 5, 2024NewsAARI, AMSR2, AWI, CAA, Chukchi Sea, CIS, CMC, Cyclone, East Siberian Sea, Extent, Fram Strait, Greenland Sea, Hui Da 9, Kara Sea, NSR, PIOMAS, Smoke, ThicknessJim Hunt

The JAXA extent graph is currently not updating, so let’s begin this month with the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute. Click the image to see a ~10 Mb animation of the last four weeks:

Note in particular the restart of export into the East Greenland Sea via the Fram Strait:

and the movement of ice within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2024 has been released:

Facts About the Arctic in September 2024

September 4, 2024NewsAge, AMSR2, Area, ASIF, AWI, Concentration, DMI, Extent, JAXA, Le Commandant Charcot, PIOMAS, Prince Gustaf Adolf Sea, VolumeJim Hunt

At the beginning of September JAXA/ViSHOP extent was 4th lowest for the date in the satellite era:

For much more detail on sea ice extent for the next few weeks please see the dedicated 2024 minimum thread. However, note that as extent has been flatlining sea ice area is still declining:

The latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals that the area of thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has still not melted:

The most recent sea ice age map currently available dates from the beginning of August. Comparison with the concentration map shows that most of the remaining first year ice is highly fragmented, even close to the North Pole:

Sailing The Northwest Passage Solo

August 4, 2024NewsDaft as a Brush, David Scott Cowper, Devon Island, Disko Bay, Elson Lagoon, Mabel E. Holland, Melville Bay, Meteorite Island, Moli, Northumberland Island, NWP, Polar Bound, Qeqertarsuaq, Randall Reeves, Sardinha 2, Tamara Klink, TuktoyaktukJim Hunt

David Scott Cowper is 82, and his first solo voyage through the Northwest Passage, in the converted lifeboat Mabel E. Holland, began in the Davis Strait in 1986. After spending 3 winters north of the Arctic Circle, Mabel eventually travelled south through the Bering Strait in 1989:

Mabel E. Holland at Fort Ross
Image: David Scott Cowper – Shared under a CC BY-SA 1.0 licence

David’s second solo voyage through the Northwest Passage took place from east to west starting in 2003. His purpose built motor vessel, Polar Bound, spent the winter in Cambridge Bay and completed the voyage in the summer of 2004:

Polar Bound at Cambridge Bay in 2009
Image: Cambridge Bay Weather – Shared under a CC BY-SA 3.0 licence

For this summer’s east to west voyage David is travelling in Polar Bound once again, this time accompanied by Susannah Broome. They have crossed the North Atlantic from Newcastle and have recently departed from Qaqortoq in the south west of Greenland:

Facts About the Arctic in August 2024

August 4, 2024NewsAWI, Concentration, Cyclone, DMI, Environment Canada, Extent, GFS, JAXA, MODIS, MSLP, Nares Strait, NSIDC, Oden, PIOMAS, Rain, Thickness, Victoria Fjord, VolumeJim Hunt

At the beginning of August JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

In 2012 extent had just started its unprecedented plunge towards the record September minimum, and 2024 seems certain to cross above the 2012 curve shortly. However, the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals areas of open water across the majority of the Central Arctic Basin:

In particular the sea ice between the North Pole and northern Greenland is remarkably fragmented:

*“False colour” image of the North Pole on August 3rd from the MODIS instrument on the Terra satellite*

The Northwest Passage in 2024

July 15, 2024NewsAdriaticborg, Anju, Aqua, Baffin Bay, Barrow Strait, Beaufort Sea, Bellot Strait, Beothuk, Byam Martin Channel, CAA, Cape Hope, Cape Lisburne, CCGS Des Groseilliers, CIS, Coronation Gulf, Disko Bay, Dogbark, Foxe Basin, Fury & Hecla Strait, Hanseatic Spirit, Hermione, Ilulissat, Inatiz, Iqualuit, James Ross Strait, King William Island, Lancaster Sound, Larsen Sound, Le Boreal, Le Commandant Charcot, Libertaire, Lumi, Lumina, McClintock Channel, McClure Strait, MODIS, Moli, MS Fridtjof Nansen, MS Roald Amundsen, Nashachata II, Nassauborg, NG Resolution, Night Owl, Nome, NWP, Peel Sound, Pinocchio, Polar Bound, Ponant, Pond Inlet, Prince of Wales Strait, Que Sera, Resolute, Royal Wagenborg, Seabelle, Skydancer, Sylvia Earle, Thor, Tuktoyaktuk, Ulukhaktok, USCGC Healy, Victoria Strait, Viscount Melville Sound, Y NotJim Hunt

Some “pleasure craft” are currently heading up the west coast of Greenland en route to the Bering Strait via Lancaster Sound and one of the assorted routes through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. For those of you unfamiliar with the geography of the Northwest Passage, here are couple of hopefully helpful maps:

Whilst there is still ice blocking the route across Baffin Bay from Greenland, the Canadian Ice Service has already started daily coverage of the heart of the southern route through the Northwest Passage. There’s plenty of open water in Lancaster Sound and low concentration sea ice in Prince Regent Inlet:

Further south there is also open water in the Coronation Gulf, but the fast ice between Peel Sound and King William Island has not yet started breaking up:

This slightly cloudy satellite image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago also shows that the exit of the northern route via McClure Strait into the Beaufort Sea is already navigable:

Facts About the Arctic in July 2024

July 8, 2024NewsArea, AWI, Extent, JAXA, MODIS, PIOMAS, SIPN, Terra, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

The first sea ice outlook report for 2024 has been published by the Sea Ice Prediction Network:

This year’s median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.48 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 4.21 to 4.74 million square kilometers. This is slightly lower than the 2022 (4.57 million square kilometers) and 2023 (4.54 million square kilometers) June median forecasts for September.

The lowest sea-ice extent forecast is 3.1 million square kilometers, from the UK Met Office, which would be a new record low for the satellite period (1979-present); the highest sea-ice extent forecast is 5.21 million square kilometers, submitted by both the HEU Group and SYSU/SML-MLM, which would be the highest September extent since 2015:

There are three heuristic Outlooks, with a median of 4.32 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.26 to 4.4 million square kilometers. Statistical submissions total fifteen Outlooks with a median of 4.68 million square kilometers and an interquartile range of 4.47 to 4.9 million square kilometers. There are nine dynamical model contributions. The dynamical models have a median forecast of 3.97 million square kilometers with an interquartile range of 3.68 to 4.35 million square kilometers.

The Great White Con

Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight