As part of his March PIOMAS gridded sea ice thickness update Wipneus also produced this graph of sea ice export from the central Arctic via the Fram Strait:
So far this winter export has been remarkably subdued, but that has now changed. A persistent dipole with high pressure over Greenland and low pressure over the Barents Sea is generating strong northerly winds in the Fram Strait, and even bringing some April snow showers to South West England:
Wondering why it's so #cold? We're still sat in Arctic air across the UK today
A change to milder #weather arrives tonight for Thursday and Friday, bringing temperatures much closer to average
Precisely how high the pressure has been over Greenland is the subject of much debate. See for example this discussion on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum about whether a new world high pressure record has just been set. Different weather forecasting models have come to very different conclusions about the mean sea level pressure of a high pressure area situated over the Greenland ice sheet, which reaches an altitude of over 3,000 metres. Here’s GFS for example, showing 1097 hPa at 06Z on April 4th:
whereas the Canadian Meteorological Centre synopsis for the same time shows a mere 1070 hPa:
At least all the assorted models agree that the isobars are closely packed over the Fram Strait, and hence some of the thickest sea ice remaining in the Arctic is currently heading towards oblivion in the far north Atlantic Ocean:
As is our current habit this month’s report begins with the high resolution Arctic sea ice area and extent graphs based on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 concentration maps:
Area and extent are currently vying for second place with 2019 on the “lowest for the date” leader board, a little behind 2016 at this point in the 2020 melting season.
However following the extremely warm spring in Siberia, the sea ice area along the assorted sea that comprise the Northern Sea Route is well below all previous years in the AMSR2 record:
Another effect of the sweltering Siberian spring is evident in the melt ponds visible below the clouds across the southernmost parts of the Laptev Sea:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Laptev Sea on June 1st 2020, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
plus the East Siberian Sea and Chaunskaya Bay:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the East Siberian Sea on June 1st 2020, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
[Edit – June 4th]
The May 31st PIOMAS gridded thickness numbers have been released, and Wipneus has crunched the numbers:
Here too is the latest volume graph:
According to the Polar Science Center’s May 2020 update:
Average Arctic sea ice volume in May 2020 was 21,500 km3. This value is 1700 km3 above the record minimum value of 19,800 km3 set in 2017, making it the sixth lowest on record. Monthly ice volume was 39% below the maximum in 1979 and 25% below the mean value for 1979-2019. May 2020 ice volume falls 0.8 standard deviations above the trend line. Daily volume anomalies for May progressed at a fairly normal pace for recent years. Average ice thickness is in the middle of the pack for the more recent years. Ice thickness anomalies for May 2020 relative to 2011-2018 continue the April pattern and show relatively thin ice along the Russian Coast and thicker than normal sea ice in the Barents sea. There are some fairly strong positive anomalies in the eastern Beaufort and north of Greenland. This anomaly pattern is likely due to the very strong positive Arctic-Oscillation index pattern that occurred during the Winter of 2020.
There looks to be a lot of anomalously thick ice waiting to melt out on the Atlantic periphery, and it will be interesting to see how the thicker ice in the eastern Beaufort Sea fares as the melting season progresses.
As also suggested by the area graph above, the Northern Sea Route is going to be open early in 2020. In fact a ice hardened tanker has already begun its journey through, unsupported by an icebreaker:
It was the “Christophe de Margerie” that on the 19th May kickstarted this year’s shipping season across the eastern part of the Northern Sea Route. The vessel owned and operated by Russian shipping company Sovcomflot loaded up liquefied natural gas in Sabetta and is due to arrive in the Chinese port of Jingtang on the 11th June. It was the earliest east-bound shipment on the route ever for this kind of vessel.
Shipments in the Northern Sea Route 27th May 2020. Map by MarineTraffic
By 27th May, the ship had made it almost to Wrangel Island, information from ship tracker service MarineTraffic shows. The “Christophe de Margerie” is accompanied by nuclear powered icebreaker “Yamal”.
In the wake of the almost 300 meter long vessel now follows the “Vladimir Voronin”, a vessel that is operated by company Teekay. The “Vladimir Voronin” on the 25th May left Sabetta and was on May 27th located in the Vilkitsky Strait north of the Taymyr Peninsula.
The ”Vladimir Voronin” is not accompanied by icebreaker. The “50 Let Pobedy” that escorted the ship out of Sabetta and eastwards towards the Vilkitsky Strait has now returned and appears to be on its way back to Sabetta.
[Edit – June 17th]
The mid month PIOMAS gridded thickness numbers have just been released. Here’s the thickness map:
and the volume graph:
In addition JAXA extent is now in a “statistical tie” with 2019 in the “lowest for the date” competition:
As Zack Labe has recently pointed out, in 2015 the Arctic sea ice maximum extent based on the JAXA numbers had already occurred on February 15th:
Perhaps it’s time we started paying attention this year! However the National Snow and Ice Data Center reported a significantly later date in 2015:
On February 25, 2015, Arctic sea ice extent appeared to have reached its annual maximum extent, marking the beginning of the sea ice melt season. This year’s maximum extent not only occurred early; it is also the lowest in the satellite record. However, a late season surge in ice growth is still possible.
Each year we keep track of the assorted Arctic sea ice metrics over the next month or so, and they rarely agree on the date of maximum extent, and never agree on the sea ice extent on that date! The reason for that is explained in a 2017 paper entitled “Variability and trends in the Arctic Sea ice cover: Results from different techniques“:
Reports on the sea ice cover have been provided by different institutions using basically the same set of satellite data but different techniques for estimating key parameters such as ice concentration, ice extent, and ice area. In this study, a comparison of results from four different techniques that are frequently used shows significant disagreements in the characterization of the distribution of the sea ice cover primarily in areas that have a large fraction of new ice cover or significant amount of surface melt.
In due course we’ll look at the metrics from a variety of different institutions, but let’s start with JAXA, comparing 2020 with 2015 and the 2010s average:
Extent is clearly increasing just at the moment! Will the next peak prove to be the maximum for the year or will we have to wait another month or more to find out that value, as suggested by the average?
Compare and contrast JAXA extent with Wipneus’ high resolution AMSR2 extent and area:
Perhaps the 2020 maximum area has already been reached?
[Edit – February 25th]
Or perhaps not! We’re playing mix and match this morning, since Wipneus’s new numbers haven’t been released yet. Here UH AMSR2 high resolution Arctic sea ice area from February 23rd:
Plus JAXA extent for the 24th:
[Edit – February 27th]
Tony Heller’s latest sea ice themed article claims “Normal Sea Ice Extent At Both Poles”. Hence today’s JAXA extent graph includes the averages for previous decades:
Extent is evidently increasing once again, and is even more evidently well below what passed for “normal” in the twentieth century!
Let’s also compare the Pacific periphery:
with the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean:
The Bering and Okhotsk Seas will be sea ice free by the time September 2020 arrives. How about the Kara, Barents and particularly Greenland Seas though?
[Edit – February 29th]
Arctic sea ice maximum volume usually occurs in April, but nonetheless let’s keep an eye on the metric that most nearly measure the “amount” of sea ice left in the Arctic in 2020. Here’s our “measured” CryoSat-2/SMOS volume metric, using reanalysed data up to February 12th:
PIOMAS “modelled” volume for February should be released soon, but getting back to extent the JAXA flavour has been setting new highs over recent days:
whereas the NSIDC’s Charctic 5 day averaged extent has not!
[Edit – March 6th]
Here’s the February PIOMAS gridded Arctic sea ice thickness map, courtesy of Wipneus on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:
plus the traditional modelled volume graph:
As angech has pointed out elsewhere, according to the PIOMAS team:
CryoSat-2 data show total volume for February 2020 substantially lower than PIOMAS with 2020 Febuary near record low levels over the 2011-2020 period
[Edit – March 19th]
The March mid month PIOMAS numbers have been crunched by Wipneus. Here’s how things look at the moment:
For comparison purposes here’s the current CryoSat-2/SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness map:
[Edit – March 20th]
After flatlining for a long time JAXA extent has posted significant declines for two days running. There’s been no official announcement from the NSIDC as yet, but it now seems safe to conclude that there won’t be a late surge in extent similar to 2010. Here’s the current JAXA graph:
plus NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
Hence the (still provisional!) maximum numbers for 2020 are:
JAXA/VISHOP AMSR2 – 14.45 million square kilometres on March 3rd
NSIDC 5 day SSMIS – 15.05 million square kilometres on March 5th
The University of Hamburg’s JAXA AMSR2 concentration data seems to have suffered an outage over the crucial period. Hopefully the gaps will be filled in due course. However more recent regional graphs reveal the following:
The recent declines in overall extent are evidently driven by declines on the Pacific periphery.
Whilst we await the PIOMAS volume numbers which generally arrive around the 5th of each month, and before we look at graphs of extent, with the refreeze well under way some “measured” thickness maps are coming back! Here’s the first SMOS map this autumn:
Then of course there’s our usual Arctic wide high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs:
They reveal both metrics currently still second lowest (in the brief AMSR2 record) after 2012. It looks as though that may well change soon, particularly area.
The near real time NSIDC monthly extent for September is 4.32 million km². Here’s the graph:
We’re eagerly awaiting the first ice mass balance buoy “near real time” data, but for now the 2019 PIOMAS minimum volume is expected to be revealed real soon now, so:
[Edit – October 5th]
As previously perfectly predicted, the PIOMAS numbers have arrived over at the ASIF. Here’s the thickness map for the end of September:
A marginally off topic excursion down under. The NSIDC 5 day average Antarctic sea extent looks to have peaked at 18.40 million km² on September 30th:
[Edit – October 7th]
The first of the MOSAiC Expedition’s Ice Mass Balance buoys has been installed, presumably on the ice floe Polarstern is moored to. It reveals sea ice that is currently just over 1 meter thick with a sprinkling of snow on top:
P.S MOSAiC IMB buoy #3 has gone live today too:
There’s currently only 0.5 meters of ice under this one.
[Edit – October 9th]
Here’s the latest annual PIOMAS “ice cube” animation from Andy Lee Robinson:
[Edit – October 10th]
Here’s the latest DMI “high Arctic” temperature graph:
Needless to say that means the DMI Freezing Degrees Days graph is tracking the lowest readings in the DMI’s records:
[Edit – October 11th]
MOSAiC IMB buoy #2 has now been installed and is beaming back data:
The sea ice at this location is decidedly on the thin side at present. A mere 20 cm or thereabouts!
[Edit – October 12th]
The JAXA ViSHOP web site is down at the moment, so by way of a change here is the University of Bremen’s AMSR2 based extent graph instead:
2019 Arctic sea ice is extent is now once again “lowest for the date” (since AMSRx satellite records began).
[Edit – October 14th]
The JAXA/ADS/ViSHOP web site is back online after being down over the weekend, presumably due to the effects of Typhoon Hagibis:
Sure enough the Japanese flavour of AMSR2 based extent is also now “lowest for the date”.
Mike and Borge’s current position was reported yesterday as: 89°35′51″N 140°30′32″E
[Edit – October 15th]
The latest SMOS Arctic sea ice “thinness” map shows sea ice starting to form on the shores of the Laptev Sea:
[Edit – October 16th]
The Centre for Polar Observation and Monitoring (CPOM) have just published the first CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map of the 2019/20 freezing season:
Note in particular the dark blue area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago.
[Edit – October 20th]
Wipneus has just crunched the October mid month PIOMAS numbers. Here are the results. Not only the modelled Arctic sea ice thickness map:
but also the Arctic sea ice volume graph:
[Edit – October 21st]
Over on Twitter Judah Cohen suggests that:
Maybe I will discuss more in the next blog but the #Arctic sea ice growth season on the North Pacific side of the Arctic is just nuts, like it is drunk! Looks unprecedented to me. This needs to be watched through the #winter. Already had 2 unprecedented winters in the Bering sea pic.twitter.com/sAVoZXgNAX
I have been trying to bring the implications of this to the attention of the denizens of Judith Curry’s “Climate Etc.” blog, thus far with remarkably little success! This is the gist of my argument:
“Summer solar heat absorption by the surface waters has increased fivefold over the same time period, chiefly because of reduced sea ice coverage.”
“The effects of an efficient local ice-albedo feedback are thus not confined to the surface ocean/sea ice heat budget but, in addition, lead to increased heat accumulation in the ocean interior that has consequences far beyond the summer season.”
“In the coming years, however, excess Beaufort Gyre halocline heat will give rise to enhanced upward heat fluxes year-round, creating compound effects on the system by slowing winter sea ice growth.”
September is here once again, so the assorted minima of a variety of Arctic sea ice metrics will be reached soon, if they haven’t happened already!
In the latter category let’s first take a look at the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged SSMIS based Arctic sea ice extent:
It looks entirely feasible that the current minimum of 4.29 million square kilometres on September 7th will hold for the rest of the calendar year. The daily NSIDC number is currently 4.24 million km² on September 4th.
By way of contrast the JAXA/ViSHOP AMSR2 based extent hit a new low of 4.11 million km² yesterday:
And what of our much beloved high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 concentration data? Area certainly looks to be past the minimum for this year, whereas extent is still conceivably capable of another push lower:
The provisional minimum extent for 2019 is 3.80 million km² on September 3rd.
The minimum Arctic sea ice volume generally occurs slightly later than area or extent. The data certainly arrives later! Here’s the PIOMAS graph up to August 31st:
Note that Arctic wide modelled volume is only slightly higher than in 2012 at the same time of year, but there is a noticeably greater percentage gap in extent. That implies that average ice thickness across the Arctic is lower in 2019 than in 2012.
Note also that the thickest ice is no longer located along the north coasts of Greenland and the Canadian Arctic Archipelago. Here are the equivalent maps for previous years for comparison purposes:
Perhaps JAXA extent will head still lower over the next few days? Perhaps PIOMAS volume will sneak below 2012 before the peripheral refreeze begins?
[Edit – September 13th]
JAXA Arctic sea ice extent has reached a new minimum of 4.09 million km².
NSIDC daily extent is currently 4.28 million km², still just above the September 4th minimum.
[Edit – September 14th]
JAXA Arctic sea ice extent has reached a new minimum of 4.05 million km², which now puts it below the 2007 minimum that occurred somewhat later in September:
[Edit – September 14th PM]
NSIDC 5 day averaged extent has also (by a whisker!) reached a new minimum for the year of 4.285 million km²:
The daily number fell to 4.21 million km².
[Edit – September 15th]
I have somewhat belatedly discovered that in the build up to the forthcoming MOSAiC Expedition the Alfred Wegener Institute recently announced that:
The sea-ice extent in the Arctic is nearing its annual minimum at the end of the melt season in September. Only circa 3.9 million square kilometres of the Arctic Ocean are covered by sea ice any more, according to researchers from the Alfred Wegener Institute and the University of Bremen. This is only the second time that the annual minimum has dropped below four million square kilometres since satellite measurements began in 1979.
[Edit – September 16th]
JAXA/ViSHOP extent has dropped below the 2016 minimum, and now measures 4.01 million km²:
Only 2012 left to beat!
Wipneus’ high resolution AMSR2 extent has also posted a new low for the year, but still has a little way to go before passing 2016:
Area is also currently declining, but is still well away from a new minimum for 2019:
[Edit – September 19th]
After some more modest declines JAXA/ViSHOP extent has just increased marginally from the previous day, and now measures 3.98 million km²:
That puts the (very!) tentative minimum for 2019 at 3.96 million km² on September 17th.
[Edit – September 20th]
The mid month PIOMAS gridded thickness and volume numbers have been released:
As anticipated given recent extent values, the volume difference from 2012 has increased somewhat over the last two weeks.
[Edit – September 23rd]
The National Snow and Ice Data Center have called the 2019 minimum in their latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News:
On September 18, 2019, sea ice extent dropped to 4.15 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles), effectively tied for the second lowest minimum in the satellite record along with 2007 and 2016. This appears to be the lowest extent of the year. In response to the setting sun and falling temperatures, ice extent will begin increasing through autumn and winter. However, a shift in wind patterns or a period of late season melt could still push the ice extent lower.
[Edit – September 24th]
To summarise the assorted minimum extent metrics for 2019:
University of Bremen – 3.77 million km² on September 18th, 2nd lowest behind 2012. JAXA/ViSHOP – 3.96 million km² on September 17th, “Statistical tie” with 2016 for 2nd lowest. NSIDC 1 day – 4.10 million km² on September 17th, “Statistical tie” with 2016 for 2nd lowest. NSIDC 5 day – 4.15 million km² on September 18th, 2nd lowest behind 2012.
[Edit – October 1st]
Two sides of the same coin? Sea ice area on the Pacific side of the Arctic has been at historic lows for most of the melting season:
whereas on the Atlantic side:
[Edit – October 7th]
The September monthly numbers have arrived from the NSIDC, together with some intriguing annotations by Walt Meier:
At the beginning of April 2019 all the assorted Arctic sea ice extent metrics are at their respective lowest levels for the date in the satellite record. Just for a change let’s start with the JAXA/ViSHOP graph for April 1st, based on AMSR2 data:
That shows extent apparently on an inexorable decline. However the higher resolution graphs derived by Wipneus from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data reveal that Arctic sea ice extent has changed little over the last couple of days, and area has even increased somewhat:
Whilst we wait for Wipneus’ latest PIOMAS thickness and volume update, here’s the gridded merged CryoSat-2/SMOS thickness data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute:
Watch this space for some other extent graphs once they’ve updated to April 1st. In particular the DMI’s version of events will be of great interest, since by way of a little All Fools Day fun I passed on the latest Arctic sea ice news to Tony Heller and the denizens of his “Deplorable Climate Science Blog” yesterday. They were not amused! By way of example, Rah solemnly informed me that:
Tony consistently has used the DMI data as his primary source on the conditions in the Arctic, while you jump to whatever source you think justifies your bias. Get a life. Arctic air temps this year so far have been running below what they were at this time last year.
This is the graph that Steve/Tony used in an attempt to make his point:
Plus the April 2nd DMI “Arctic temperature” graph:
[Edit – April 3rd]
Snow White asked Axel Schweiger nicely on Twitter, and as if by magic the PIOMAS numbers for March have been released, including gridded thickness. Wipneus has crunched them to reveal the following end of March sea ice thickness map:
plus a rather unusual volume graph:
Here’s a closeup view:
According to the PIOMAS model Arctic sea ice volume has been flatlining for the last couple of weeks, and may even have peaked already!
Meanwhile returning to 2 dimensions the decline in area has resumed:
[Edit – April 7th]
Wipneus’ UH high resolution extent fell another 129k yesterday:
Plus a close up look at the FMI merged Cryosat-2/SMOS thickness for both the Atlantic and Pacific sides of the Arctic:
Apart from the usual thick ice queueing for the Fram Strait exit there’s not a lot to prevent the comparatively swift early melt from continuing apace.
Since the FMI make the gridded data available as well as that visualisation, here’s a closer look at the Bering/Chukchi area:
There’s an awful lot of thin ice in the region ripe for rapid melting now that the sun is shining down for a rapidly increasing number of hours per day. Over on the other side of the North Pole there’s also some significant swell forecast to hit the Atlantic edge of the Arctic ice pack. Here’s the current WaveWatch III forecast for 09:00 UTC tomorrow morning:
Finally, for the moment at least, here are the current Arctic wide high resolution AMSR2 sea ice area and extent graphs:
[Edit – March 22nd]
This Sentinel 1 SAR image of the Lincoln Sea from PolarView suggests that the northern arch of the Nares Strait is breaking up once again:
It is therefore conceivable that sea ice in the Lincoln Sea will continue to break up and flow south through the Nares Strait for the entire 2018/2019 winter.
[Edit – March 23rd]
Bering Sea ice area has “rebounded” over the last few days:
and taken the Arctic wide metrics with it:
Here’s the latest Sentinel 1 SAR image of the Lincoln Sea and northern Nares Strait:
[Edit – March 24th]
The “rebound” has reversed:
With temperatures above freezing point across the Bering and Chukchi Sea forecast for tomorrow morning expect the decline in Arctic sea ice extent to accelerate:
[Edit – March 25th]
There was a 162k decline in high resolution extent yesterday:
Here also is the current state of the thick sea ice exiting the Lincoln Sea via the Nares Strait:
[Edit – March 27th]
Here’s another week’s merged CryoSat-2/SMOS thickness data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute:
[Edit – March 30th]
We’re still waiting for Wipneus’ Raspberry Pi to crunch the high resolution AMSR2 numbers, but here’s the latest from JAXA:
2019 currently in 3rd place by a whisker.
P.S. The high resolution AMSR2 numbers are out:
Area is certainly lowest for the date in the AMSR2 era. Extent will almost certainly achieve that status tomorrow. Excluding the two most peripheral seas reveals perhaps an even more worrying picture?
[Edit – March 31th]
Arctic sea ice coverage is now firmly in the “lowest extent for the date in the satellite record” category, whichever metric you care to choose:
The NSIDC 5 day average is in a “statistical tie” for first place with 2017:
March 2019 has arrived, which in recent years has proved to be by far the likeliest month to contain the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice for the year. To begin with, here’s our favourite high resolution extent graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
Hopefully you can plainly see the pronounced sharp peak towards the end of February 2019? The current maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2019 is 13.83 million square kilometers on February 22nd. Here’s Arctic sea ice area for good measure:
The current maximum area for 2019 is 13.10 million square kilometers, also on February 22nd. Here too is the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
This reveals a current maximum extent for 2019 of 14.705 million square kilometers on February 24th.
At this juncture you may well be wondering what the cause of that sudden sharp peak might be? Here’s your starter for ten:
Whilst overall Arctic sea ice area is unremarkable for the current decade, sea ice area in the Bering Sea is remarkable low for the time of year! What’s more much like last year the Chukchi Sea is not currently full to overflowing with sea ice, and is also lowest for the date in the AMSR2 satellite records:
I’ve also been experimenting with the new gridded CryoSat-2/SMOS thickness data from the Finnish Meteorological Institute, which reveals this:
That’s a weekly overview dated February 24th, but it does perhaps explain how such a large area of sea ice could melt so swiftly?
As luck would have it the skies are reasonably clear over the Bering Strait this morning (UTC). Here’s Terra’s view from on high of the current situation:
In addition, here is the underlying sea ice concentration data from the OSI-SAF:
Since Michael is also asserting that there currently exists “the greatest February Arctic sea ice extent (according to DMI) in your blog’s history”, here’s Arctic sea ice area excluding the extremely peripheral Okhotsk and St. Lawrence regions:
P.S. Wipneus’ Pi has processed the AMSR2 data now, and area shows another, more modest, decline today:
Both area and extent are still moving inexorably upwards:
The late February maximum still holds, on the high resolution numbers at least. The JAXA/VISHOP web site is down at the moment, so we’ll have to wait for an update to that particular metric, as well as a post weekend update to the NSIDC’s Charctic chart.
P.S. Jaxa is still down this afternoon, but here’s the latest from the NSIDC:
[Edit – March 13th]
Arctic wide area and extent have blasted past their respective late February maxima:
However Arctic sea ice area excluding the Okhotsk and St. Lawrence peripheral regions has still not exceeded the maximum formed on January 25th:
[Edit – March 14th]
This morning’s data reveal the first decline in extent for several days:
The (extremely!) tentative new maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2019 is 13.89 million square kilometers on March 12th.
[Edit – March 15th]
JAXA is back!
UH AMSR2 confirms that extent is still declining:
[Edit – March 16th]
Arctic sea ice extent continues to decline, whilst area is still flatlining:
Meanwhile a look at freezing degree days based on the DMI’s dubiously weighted data for north of 80 degrees reveals the story of the freezing season. A historically warm start, but now back in amongst the pack of the 2010s:
[Edit – March 17th]
It looks as though there’ll be no going back from this. Arctic sea ice area is finally following extent’s decline in no uncertain terms:
Barring exceedingly unforeseen circumstances after this year’s “double top” that leaves the 2019 Arctic sea ice maximum extent numbers as follows:
UH/Wipneus AMSR2 – 13.89 million square kilometers on March 12th
JAXA/VISHOP AMSR2 – 14.27 million square kilometers on March 12th
NSIDC 5 day SSMIS – 14.78 million square kilometers on March 13th
[Edit – March 19th]
Arctic sea ice area has fallen off the proverbial cliff over the last few days. There can now be no doubt that the 2019 maximum extent has been reached:
That being the case, all other Arctic sea ice discussion for the month of March can now take place over at:
On March 13, 2019, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.78 million square kilometers (5.71 million square miles), the seventh lowest in the 40-year satellite record, tying with 2007. This year’s maximum extent is 860,000 square kilometers (332,000 square miles) below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.64 million square kilometers (6.04 million square miles) and 370,000 square kilometers (143,000 square miles) above the lowest maximum of 14.41 million square kilometers (5.56 million square miles) set on March 7, 2017. Prior to 2019, the four lowest maximum extents occurred from 2015 to 2018.
The date of the maximum this year, March 13, was very close to the 1981 to 2010 median date of March 12.
Please note this is a preliminary announcement of the sea ice maximum. At the beginning of April, NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of winter conditions in the Arctic, along with monthly data for March.
A somewhat belated start to our October 2018 coverage, but firstly please take a look at this graph:
Following a remarkably sluggish refreeze this year JAXA extent is currently the lowest for the date since their records began. Meanwhile Wipneus has just released his mid month PIOMAS volume update on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:
That graph reveals that Arctic sea ice volume has been increasing much more slowly than usual during October. The fact that the DMI freezing degree days graph is currently below all previous years in their records no doubt has something to do with that:
Wipneus has also updated the mid month PIOMAS gridded thickness map:
For a handle on the areas of thinner ice where refreezing is taking place around the periphery of the pack, here’s the latest SMOS map:
Finally, for the moment at least, here’s our favourite high resolution AMSR2 area and extent metrics based on JAXA data processed by the University of Hamburg to produced gridded concentration which is then used to derive area and extent by the inimitable Wipneus once again:
[Edit – October 28th]
Here’s the latest thickness maps from SMOS:
and CryoSat-2:
There’s been a recent rapid refreeze, leaving large areas of thin ice around the edges of the central pack:
September is upon us once again, the month in which the assorted Arctic sea ice area and extent metrics (almost) always reach their respective annual minima. Now we are free to start speculating about what the assorted minima will be, and on what date.
To begin with let’s take a look at our much beloved high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 concentration data:
There’s currently some divergence between the area and extent graphs. Area is declining rapidly for the time of year, whilst extent seems to almost have come to a standstill!
Before looking at some of the other metrics we’ll wait for the effect of the assorted storms currently circling the Arctic to play out. Here’s how the AMSR2 concentration map looks at the moment:
whilst here’s the University of Bremen’s summer SMOS sea ice “thinness” map:
[Edit – September 3rd]
UH AMSR2 area and extent both increased yesterday, so we have a (very!) provisional minimum extent of 4.35 million square kilometres on September 1st.
[Edit – September 4th]
Area and extent have both increased again:
Is the minimum already in, or will the storms still circulating around the Arctic Ocean reverse that trend over the next few days?
[Edit – September 6th]
High resolution area and extent both posted marginal new lows for the year yesterday:
On September 19 and 23, Arctic sea ice appeared to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for the year, at 4.59 million square kilometers (1.77 million square miles). This ties 2018 with 2008 and 2010 for the sixth lowest minimum extent in the nearly 40-year satellite record.
Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.
The NSIDC numbers are based on a 5 day average, whereas the one day high resolution AMSR2 extent reached a minimum of 4.195 million square kilometers on September 17th:
The AMSR2 area minimum occurred significantly earlier. 3.737 million square kilometers on September 9th:
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Necessary cookies are absolutely essential for the website to function properly. This category only includes cookies that ensures basic functionalities and security features of the website. These cookies do not store any personal information.
Any cookies that may not be particularly necessary for the website to function and is used specifically to collect user personal data via analytics, ads, other embedded contents are termed as non-necessary cookies. It is mandatory to procure user consent prior to running these cookies on your website.
