Whilst the official PIOMAS volume figures for January have yet to be released Wipneus has worked his usual magic on the gridded thickness numbers to reveal:
not to mention the calculated volume:
and the volume anomaly:
As Wipneus puts it:
Estimated from the thickness data, the latest value is from 31st of January: 17.57 [1000 km3], which is the second lowest value for that day, 2017 is lowest by a rather large margin at 16.16 [1000 km3].
Here are the “measured” thickness maps from SMOS:
and CryoSat-2:
Here are the end of January Arctic wide high resolution AMSR2 graphs based on University of Hamburg data:
In addition, since it’s that time of year, here too is Wipneus’ NSIDC global sea ice extent:
The minimum thus far is very slightly above last year’s value, but perhaps like last year there will be a “double dip”?
Getting back to the Arctic, here is the DMI >80N temperature plot for January:
together with the associated freezing degree days graph:
Here’s a video showing the effect of the mid January cyclones on the sea ice in the Fram Strait and north of Svalbard:
Finally, for the moment at least, here is the current Fram Strait surf forecast for 12:00 UTC on February 5th:
The latest edition of Arctic Sea Ice News has been published. As the NSIDC put it:
January of 2018 began and ended with satellite-era record lows in Arctic sea ice extent, resulting in a new record low for the month. Combined with low ice extent in the Antarctic, global sea ice extent is also at a record low.
Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (about 2,500 feet above sea level) remained unusually high over the Arctic Ocean. Nearly all of the region was at least 3 degrees Celsius (5 degrees Fahrenheit) or more above average. The largest departures from average of more than 9 degrees Celsius (16 degrees Fahrenheit) were over the Kara and Barents Seas, centered near Svalbard. On the Pacific side, air temperatures were about 5 degrees Celsius (9 degrees Fahrenheit) above average. By contrast, 925 hPa temperatures over Siberia were up to 4 degrees Celsius (7 degrees Fahrenheit) below average. The warmth over the Arctic Ocean appears to result partly from a pattern of atmospheric circulation bringing in southerly air, and partly from the release of heat into the atmosphere from open water areas.
[Edit – February 10th]
The University of Hamburg’s high resolution AMSR2 derived area is bouncing back after the recent cyclone, but extent is currently still declining:
The recent drop in Arctic sea ice extent has pushed the NSIDC global extent to a new all time (satellite era!) low:
September has arrived once again, the month in which the assorted Arctic area and extent metrics (almost) always reach their respective annual minima. Now we can start to speculate about what the assorted minima will be, and on what date.
First of all let’s take a look at “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:
As you can see, today’s values are both higher than yesterday’s. Hence we already have potential minima to consider! In this case:
UH AMSR2 Area – 3.65 million km² on September 1st
UH AMSR2 Extent – 4.30 million km² on September 1st
Personally I don’t think those numbers will last long, and here’s one reason why. The “surf forecast” for the far North Atlantic for midday on September 6th:
Some significant swells are currently forecast to batter the ice edge on the Atlantic side of the Arctic over the next few days.
[Edit – September 3rd PM]
Shock news! Tony Heller has made a prediction about this year’s minimum!! Unlike last year, this year the NSIDC 5 day average extent seems to be his Arctic metric of choice:
Tony tells his faithful flock:
The Arctic sea ice minimum this year is very likely going to be be larger than 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011 and 2007.
It is also likely that the minimum extent will be higher than 2010 and 2008.
Instead of reporting the huge gain in ice and massive failure of their forecasts, climate alarmists will report that extent was “8th lowest on record.”
All those years are on the graph above. We shall see.
[Edit – September 15th]
Our normal Arctic sea ice extent 2017 minimum service will be restored as soon as possible. Meanwhile here is the test card:
On the way the cruise’s resident naturalist and Smithsonian lecturer, Michael Scott, risked the wrath of Trump supporters by pointing to some of the changes Greenland is undergoing.
A Nasa map based on data between 2004 and 2014 revealed that the ice is melting across most of Greenland – an area nine times the size of the UK.
Pulling together several papers, Michael said Greenland’s summer melt season now lasts 70 days longer than in the early 1970s.
This melting is unfreezing the fringes of the permafrost, which may explain why Nasa satellites are picking up fires raging where the ice has retreated.
[Edit – September 16th]
It is of course still to early to be 100% certain about this. However:
It certainly looks as though the bottom is in for the University of Hamburg AMSR2 extent: 4.25 million km² on September 11th.
It’s much the same story for JAXA extent:
4.47 million km² on September 9th and 10th.
[Edit – September 19th]
The NSIDC have followed in Snow White’s glass slippered footsteps and tentatively called the minimum:
On September 13, Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent of 4.64 million square kilometers (1.79 million square miles), the eighth lowest in the 38-year satellite record. The overall rate of ice loss this summer was slowed by a persistent pattern of low sea level pressure focused over the central Arctic Ocean.
Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.
Minimum volume was reached at 11th September: 4.542 103km3, which is fourth lowest after 2012, 2011 and 2016 (resp 3.673, 4.302, 4.402) and just below 2010 (4.582).
[Edit – September 23rd]
Here’s the 2017 edition of our annual NSIDC daily max/min extent graph:
The maximum extent was the lowest in the satellite record, and the minimum was just fractionally above the trend line. For those that concern themselves with “statistical significance”, the PIOMAS minimum volume was a “statistical tie” for second place:
What seems likely to be the most interesting period of the 2017 Arctic sea ice melting season is upon us! The PIOMAS gridded data hasn’t been released yet, but the overall volume numbers reveal that 2017 has now relinquished its “lowest ever” position to 2012. Here’s Wipneus’ graph of the volume data:
plus his anomaly plot:
Our favourite high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs now also allow comparison with 2012. Here’s how they look at the moment:
As you can see, round about now is when 2012 Arctic sea ice extent started to noticeably race ahead of the rest of the pack. Will 2017 follow suit? Are there any Arctic cyclones on the horizon for example? Well, the one forecast for August 4th hasn’t materialised. Here’s this morning’s Environment Canada synopsis:
However both ECMWF and GFS agree that a sub 985 hPa storm should have arrived by Sunday morning. Here’s the ECMWF version from MeteoCiel:
There’s stronger storms in the forecast further out, but once again we’ll believe them if and when we see them!
We’re keeping a close eye on the Northwest Passage once again this year. Most of the southern route is open already, but as we predicted the old ice in Larsen Sound has a lot of melting still to do. Here’s how it looked from the icebreaker Nordica a few days ago:
On top of that the old ice around O-Buoy 14 is currently rushing south down the McClintock Channel to replenish it. Here’s how that looks at the moment:
Meanwhile the melt along the Northern Sea Route is well ahead of last year. Here’s the University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration map of the area:
There’s also now a lot of open water on the Pacific side of the Arctic, and Sunday’s cyclone is forecast to create a large area of 2 meter plus waves heading in the direction of the ice edge:
I expect that to have a noticeable effect on the already fragile sea ice by early next week, assuming the storm arrives as forecast! There is an ice mass balance buoy handily placed out on the ice in the path of the storm. Buoy 2017A is currently located near 77 N, 147 W, and its assorted sensors suggest the ice underneath it is now less than 20 cm thick:
Here’s how the area around the buoy looked a couple of weeks ago:
Image of 2017A from WARM 6 on July 18th 2017. NSF project: NSF OPP #1603548
The $64,000 question now is will the 2017 Arctic sea ice metrics stay in amongst the recent pack, or race after 2012 instead?
[Edit – August 6th]
This morning’s synopsis from Environment Canada suggests the cyclone has bottomed out at a MSLP of 982 hPa:
Here’s how the cyclone looked from space yesterday:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the sea ice north of the Beaufort Sea on August 5th 2017, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
I think that I can convince myself that the salinity profile from ice tethered profiler 97, currently located at 73° N, 134° W, reveals mixing from depth in the wake of the storm:
The synthetic aperture radar on the Sentinel 1B satellite can certainly see through the clouds, and reveals open water in the Central Arctic north of the Beaufort Sea yesterday evening (UTC):
Sentinel 1B image of Arctic sea ice at 79° N, 160° W on August 5th 2017
The effects of this weekend’s storm are readily apparent! Just in case you’re wondering Wipneus reports:
Area: -172.0 (+324k vs 2016, +138k vs 2015, -669k vs 2014, -523k vs 2013, +493k vs 2012)
[Edit – August 8th]
The next pulse of swell is currently forecast to be somewhat higher and longer period than the last one. This one is also taking aim at the Beaufort Sea MIZ:
[Edit – August 9th]
According to Environment Canada the latest cyclone is already down to 980 hPa MSLP:
[Edit – August 9th PM]
The MSLP of the current cyclone is now down to 976 hPA:
The latest WaveWatch III forecast has increased the predicted peak height and period of the resulting waves once again:
[Edit – August 10th]
Large holes are appearing in the sea ice on the other side of the Arctic too. Take a look north of the Laptev Sea for example:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the “Laptev Bite” polynya on August 10th 2017
Meanwhile the current cyclone on the Pacific side of the North Pole appears to have bottomed out at 974 hPa:
[Edit – August 11th]
Here’s the latest sea ice concentration one day delta map from Wipneus:
Despite the expected divergence caused by a low pressure area crossing the ice, both are and extent of sea ice on the Pacific side of the Arctic are still falling.
[Edit – August 12th]
The waves are considerably smaller in the Beaufort Sea today, but not in the Bering Strait!
Here’s the latest one day delta map:
and here’s video showing the motion of sea ice in the Beaufort & Chukchi Seas so far this summer:
[Edit – August 13th]
Here’s an animation from Wipneus revealing the effect of the two recent cyclones on the Pacific side, plus everything else that’s been going on in the Arctic:
Click the image to see a much larger (3.3 Mb) version.
[Edit – August 16th]
AMSR2 Arctic sea ice extent has taken another tumble, and has dropped below 2016:
Only 2012 left to beat!
[Edit – August 18th]
A PIOMAS mid month update has been released, including gridded thickness data. 2017 modelled volume has failed to follow 2012’s trajectory towards the September minimum, and is now on a par with 2011:
[Edit – August 21st]
After a “brief hiatus” in the wake of the recent cyclones Arctic sea ice area has posted a new low for the year:
Extent has yet to follow suit:
The main loss of area has been in the “Beaufort Bite” once again:
The February 2017 PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume numbers are out. It’s no longer surprising to report that they are the lowest ever for the month of February in records going back to 1979:
Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness map for February 28th:
There does seem to be a small patch of slightly thicker ice in the East Siberian Sea off Chaunskaya Bay, but there’s still a much larger area of sub 0.5 meter thick ice in the Laptev and Kara Seas.
The Danish Meteorological Institute’s temperatures for the “Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel” graph shows somewhat more “normal” readings in February 2017, but still without falling below the ERA40 climatology this year or in 2016:
The graph of cumulative Freezing Degree Days (FDD for short) is still far below all previous years in DMI’s records going back to 1958:
Finally, for the moment at least, here’s the high resolution AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area and extent:
I’m going to have to eat some humble pie, or crow pie as I gather it’s usually referred to across the Atlantic, following my tentative “2017 maximum prediction” a couple of weeks ago. Both area and extent posted new highs for the year yesterday, with area creeping above 13 million square kilometers for the first time this year.
[Edit – March 7th]
Commenter Michael Olsen suggests that “thicker ice being pushed into the Alaskan and Russian parts of the Arctic Ocean”. Here’s some evidence:
The United States’ National Weather Service current sea ice stage of development map for Alaskan waters:
This week’s Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development map is expected later today, so for now here’s last week’s:
Especially for Michael, a visual image of all the “thicker ice [that’s been] pushed into the Russian parts of the Arctic Ocean” courtesy of the nice folks at NASA:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Chukchi Sea on March 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
[Edit – March 12th]
Yet another strong Arctic cyclone has been battering the sea ice in the Arctic Basin. According to Environment Canada this one bottomed out at 971 hPa at 06:00 UTC today.
It’s far too early to be sure about this yet, but it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the 2017 maximum is already in place. Here’s our favourite high resolution extent graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
The current maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2017 is 13.49 million square kilometers on February 19th. Here’s Arctic sea ice area for good measure:
The current maximum area for 2017 is 12.88 million square kilometers on February 20th. Here also is the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
This reveals a current maximum extent for 2017 of 14.302 million square kilometers on February 20th.
[Edit – March 1st]
Here are the high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs for the end of February:
With each day that passes the highs of February 19th/20th look more likely to have been this years maximum. Nonetheless past experience suggests it’s still far to soon to be sure about that.
[Edit – March 10th]
Arctic sea ice area and extent are declining again, having reached new heights for the year on March 3rd:
However the 2013/14 winter showed a late surge is still possible.
[Edit – March 18th]
A “late surge” is looking increasingly unlikely. That being the case, here is our provisional long term graph of NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent:
Subject to an unanticipated “surge” the 2017 maximum of 14.447 million square kilometers occurred on March 5th.
JAXA extent has dropped steeply over the last couple of days, and it is now once again “lowest for the date since records began”:
The 2017 JAXA maximum of 13.878 million square kilometers occurred on March 6th.
In the continuing absence of updates to Cryosphere Today area, here’s the high resolution Arctic sea ice area graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
The maximum for that particular metric was 13.03 million square kilometers on March 3rd.
Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness for January 31st, courtesy of Wipneus at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:
Somewhat anomalously it shows the thickest ice some distance away from the coast of Greenland and/or Ellesmere Island. Here too is Andy Lee Robinson‘s updated PIOMAS “Arctic death spiral”:
Meanwhile yet more anomalously warm air is entering the Arctic Basin from both the Pacific and Atlantic sides:
That sort of thing has happened quite a few times over the 2016/17 freezing season, as you can see from this graph of cumulative Freezing Degree Days (FDD for short):
The FDD graph is based on the same data as the probably much more familiar DMI “Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel” graph:
Things are warming up in the Arctic once again.
[Edit – February 5th]
Whilst we await the arrival of the forecast anomalous warmth, how are some other metrics coming along? Here’s the high resolution AMSR2 area and extent:
It looks like they’re back in the “normal” range for now, does it not?
[Edit – February 6th]
Things currently still look fairly frosty over on the Pacific side of the Arctic, as you can see from the webcam at Utqiagvik (Barrow as was):
However over on the Atlantic side (and especially for “Richard”!) melting can now be observed on Svalbard:
An extremely powerful cyclone off Greenland is pumping heat and moisture northwards:
Note that the cyclone’s MSLP fell to 940 hPa earlier today. This is the GFS precipitable water forecast for Wednesday lunchtime:
Finally, for the moment at least, here’s the current weather forecast for Longyearbyen in Svalbard:
All in all there’s plenty more heat and moisture on the way.
This is the Great White Con version as opposed to the NOAA version published during the Fall AGU conference earlier this week, although there is some overlap.
Hot off the presses, here’s how Arctic sea ice age has progressed over the last year and a bit:
The 4 and 5 year old ice looks to be edging away from the area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago towards the Fram Strait. Here’s the current CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map:
Almost no ice over 2 meters thick to be found in the Beaufort sector or anywhere on the Siberian side of the Arctic. Here’s the current AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area graph:
Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s the NSIDC’s long term trend in November sea ice extent:
Act 1 of a 3 act play according to Don Perovich at AGU. Here’s the current PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume anomaly graph:
Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s NOAA’s Arctic and global surface temperature graph:
Warmest in a record going back to 1900. Here’s the current DMI >80N surface temperature graph:
and here’s the current Arctic surface temperature anomaly map:
Finally, for the moment at least, here’s global sea ice area just for good measure:
Need I say more? How about this:
Ice has no agenda. It just melts.
Out of the labs and into the streets?
September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:
I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?
I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:
Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:
Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?
[Edit – September 3rd]
Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:
It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:
and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:
As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:
Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.
[Edit – September 4th]
An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:
[Edit – September 11th]
Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:
A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:
Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.
[Edit – September 14th]
The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:
Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:
which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:
The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:
Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!
[Edit – September 15th]
With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Need I say more?
[Edit – September 20th]
The September cyclone has now done its worst:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:
2016 Minimum Milestones
September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²
September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²
September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.
September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²
September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²
We asked this question last year, albeit a couple of weeks later. It looks like it is if you only peruse passive microwave visualisations such as this one:
However if you were the captain of a yacht attempting to sail through the Northwest Passage this year you might well have some reservations. For example, the Barrow webcam (currently stuck on July 31st) reveals this:
Discretion being the better part of valour, in all the circumstances waiting a day or two longer before casting off might prove prudent:
[Edit – August 3rd]
Clearer skies over the Northwest Passage yesterday reveal the remaining ice:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of Larsen Sound on August 2nd 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
Here’s the CIS chart of the area from yesterday evening:
[Edit – August 7th]
Here’s the August 7th CIS chart for the Queen Maud Gulf and points north:
Today there looks to be a route past Gjoa Havn and through Bellot Strait that doesn’t involve negotiating more than 3/10 concentration sea ice. The ice has been pushed back from Point Barrow too, so by my reckoning we can now declare one route through the Northwest Passage “open”, for the moment at least.
[Edit – August 10th]
A nice clear MODIS image of the Northwest Passage yesterday:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Northwest Passage on August 9th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
I had an interesting watch this morning. Just crawled out of bed, rocking and rolling getting ready. I even put my second thermals on, checked the log to see what was happening. clipped on before leaving the saloon, and clipped on behind the wheel.
Just sitting down, put my leg up for stability and a wave came across the boat. Didn’t see it or hear it. For a fraction of a second, my whole body was under water, and it was only my leg stopping me going out of the side, and hopefully my tether would have stopped me going over completely.
I actually had a mouth full of sea water which was novel. Nikolai thought it was hilarious. I’m just very pleased it was me and not one of the lighter ladies.
Here’s brief video showing some slightly smaller waves:
Their live tracking map reveals that they have passed Ostrov Troynoy and are now heading east in the general direction of the Nordenskiöld Archipelago:
The latest sea ice map of the north eastern Kara Sea reveals some open water in the Vilkitsky Strait, but as yet no way through for a small yacht like Northabout:
A bit further afield the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 imagery reveals the current ice conditions along the rest of the Northern Sea Route:
All in all it doesn’t look as though Northabout’s crew will beaming videos back to us from the Laptev Sea over the next few days, but never say “never” in the Arctic!
N76 20 E083 28 Pressure 998 water temp 4 outside temp 5 cloud 6/8 sea state 3 winds 15 knots.
Making steady progress east. I always love it when we click over degree of longitude. Of course, they are pretty close together up here. ( I have been dreaming of the 180 long), for weeks.
The winds will slowly take us north east today and tomorrow. Hopefully find our island with the Palm trees and wait for the Ice to break up. Looking forward to seeing an Ice update today and see if this storm has changed anything. Fingers crossed.
The Vilkitsky Strait is covered in thick clouds this morning, so here once again is the view from on high using passive microwaves:
Today’s sea ice update is that concentration in the Nordenskiöld Archipelago and Vilkitsky Strait seems to be falling fast. Visual confirmation of that is eagerly awaited.
Making steady progress East. We had the latest ice charts for the Vilkitskogo straight. Still blocked and the Laptev still blocked, but big changes from the last set of charts, and encouraging.
Nikolai and Dennis are having bets. Nikolai thinks it will be free on his birthday, the 9th Aug, and Dennis on his, 6th Aug . Either way, would mean a few days rest. We are heading for a small sheltered Island. Different to the first choice, as the ice from the North has come down and blocked it, so trying for another Island closer to shore and closer to the straight. So if anything dramatic changed quickly, we would be close to react. Ie, A strong southerly taking the ice from the shore.
Saw our first ICE today on my watch, just an hour ago. What is slightly worrying, it didn’t show up on the Radar. It’s probably good for the big icebergs, but not low ice in the water. I think we will see a lot more of that before the trip is out. You can’t beat that old eyeball.
[Edit – July 31st]
In a brief update this morning the crew of Northabout report they are:
Anchored! for rest repairs and to wait for favourable ice conditions in the NE passage and for the new ice charts. Proper shipslog update coming later with some photos (which take ages to upload) But for now we’re getting a bit of a rest & having a cuppa.
They have found some shelter in the convoluted coastline of Ostrov Pilota Makhotkina, just off the shores of Siberia and within striking distance of their exit from the Kara Sea:
As Reggie points out below, the sea ice in the Vilkitsky Strait broke up remarkably early this year. Here’s his view from June 23rd:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Vilkitsky Strait on June 23rd 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
and if you watch our latest Northern Sea Route animation carefully you’ll note that the ice was already mobile at the beginning of June:
In actual fact the Vilkitsky Strait never became blocked with land-fast ice last winter. Compare this ice chart from the Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute for May 4th 2016:
Three years ago the island where Northabout is now sheltering was still encased in land fast ice at the beginning of July, as was the Vilkitsky Strait itself. By August 25th when the yacht Tara passed around Cape Chelyuskin into the Laptev Sea on her own Polar circumnavigation the Strait looked like this:
[Edit – August 1st]
The latest video from the crew of Northabout reveals them anchoring off Ostrov Pilota Makhotkina:
The skies have cleared over the Vilkitsky Strait this morning! Here’s a “false colour” image from the MODIS instrument aboard the Aqua satellite:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Vilkitsky Strait on August 1st 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
On “true colour” images sea ice looks white, and so do clouds. Using a different set of wavelengths reveals the ice in pale blue, with the clouds still white. Northabout remains anchored, and it’s easy to see why!
[Edit – August 2nd]
The latest AARI ice charts are out, but don’t reveal a way through to the Laptev Sea for Northabout just yet:
Here’s a fairly cloud free satellite image of what lies ahead:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Laptev Sea on August 2nd 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
The crew of Northabout report that some of that ice has made its way into their anchorage:
Whilst at anchor we have a respite from our normal watch routine and it is replaced with Anchor Watch, which is an hour and half slot, mine is from 12.30am to 2am. The other crew and Northabout are in a deep slumber, perfect quiet interspersed with gentle snoring from contented crew! Last night was an exception, as the wind picked up and changed direction, resulting in some bits of drifting ice coming into the bay, ‘crashing’ into the boat at about 4am, giving all the crew an alarming wake up call. There was no danger, it was simply the deafening noise of ice and aluminium in the still of the night! Dennis was soon on the job with the ice poles, keeping all at bay!
[Edit – August 8th]
As Bill points out below, Northabout is now heading in the direction of Vilkitsky Strait:
Perhaps they’ve had an early look at the latest AARI ice charts of the Laptev Sea? The Northern Sea Route Administration web site is still displaying the ones from August 5th, which showed the route blocked by 9/10 ice coverage in places:
Satellite imagery at visual frequencies is rather cloudy again today:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Laptev Sea on August 8th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
but there’s still no obvious way through to the East Siberian Sea that I can see.
[Edit – August 9th]
Northabout has just rounded Cape Chelyuskin and is now heading into the Laptev Sea!
Here’s the new ice chart for the Laptev Sea:
A navigable strip does seem to be opening up around the coast, but there’s still a stubborn patch of 9/10 concentration sea ice blocking Northabout’s way.
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