Tag Archives: PIOMAS

The Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System

Facts About the Arctic in April 2017

April 2, 2017AreaBremen Uni, CryoSat-2, DMI, IMB 2017A, Lamar Smith, Nares Strait, PIOMAS, SMOS, Snow Cover, UHJim Hunt

Particularly in view of all the balderdash concerning “climate science” being spouted in Washington DC on Wednesday lets first of all run through some Arctic sea ice facts from April 1st 2017 or thereabouts:

Northern Hemisphere Snow Extent:

Arctic Sea Ice Area:

Arctic Sea Ice Extent:

Arctic Sea Ice Concentration:

Thin ice map from the University of Bremen SMOS:

Thick ice map from CPOM CryoSat-2

Beaufort Sea ice thickness growth graph:

DMI sea ice temperature map:

DMI atmospheric temperature graph:

DMI Arctic Freezing Degree Days:

PIOMAS volume for March will follow in a few days, but it’s extremely unlikely to be anything other than “lowest for the date”.

What preliminary conclusions can we draw from this plethora of pretty pictures? First of all the Arctic hasn’t suddenly gone into “deep freeze” mode. Temperatures above 80 degrees north are rising again and are well above the climatology. Freezing degree days are still the lowest on record by a wide margin. Northern hemisphere snow cover is falling fast and is currently just above last year.

In contrast to last year, and thanks to lots of cyclones and very little in the way of anticyclones, there’s plenty of sub half meter sea ice in the Laptev and East Siberian Seas and hardly any in the Beaufort Sea. There’s also plenty of thin ice to be seen on both the Atlantic and Pacific peripheries.

The usual southerly arch hasn’t formed in the Nares Strait between Greenland and Ellesmere Island, and as SMOS shows the sea ice in the strait is consequently very thin. That leads one to wonder when the northern arch in the Lincoln Sea might give way.

It’s not immediately apparent from the still images above, but there’s been relatively large amounts of “old ice” exported from the Central Arctic on the Atlantic side, hence the recent increase in overall extent which is now second lowest for the date (since satellite records began). Area has been creeping up as well over recent days, but is still lowest for the date, as it has been for most of the last year. Sea ice “compactness” has decreased somewhat and given all the thin ice around the edges extent will soon start dropping once again.

All in all, the Arctic sea ice prognosis is not good. Are you watching Lamar Smith? (Pun intended!)

[Edit – April 4th]

The March PIOMAS update is out! As suspected, Arctic sea ice volume is still by far the lowest on record:

Volume on March 31st 2017 was 20.398 thousand cubic kilometers. The previous lowest volume for the date was 22.129 thousand km³ in 2011.

Here too is the PIOMAS modelled Arctic sea ice thickness map:

PIOMAS daily gridded thickness for March 31st 2017

[Edit – April 12th]

The latest edition of the NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice News confirms that their monthly extent metric for March 2017 was the lowest in the satellite record for the month:

As well as highlighting the anomalously warm temperatures across much of the Arctic:

the NSIDC article includes this telling pressure anomaly map:

There’s also mention of a new paper:

New work by an international team led by Igor Polyakov of the University of Alaska Fairbanks provides strong evidence that Atlantic layer heat is now playing a prominent role in reducing winter ice formation in the Eurasian Basin, which is manifested as more summer ice loss. According to their analysis, the ice loss due to the influence of Atlantic layer heat is comparable in magnitude to the top down forcing by the atmosphere.

Facts About the Arctic in March 2017

March 4, 2017VolumeAARI, AMSR2, Area, Chaunskaya Bay, CIS, CryoSat-2, Cyclone, DMI, Extent, Lars Kaleschke, NWS, PIOMAS, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

The February 2017 PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume numbers are out. It’s no longer surprising to report that they are the lowest ever for the month of February in records going back to 1979:

Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness map for February 28th:

whilst here’s the latest CryoSat-2 thickness map:

and here’s the latest SMOS thickness map from the University of Bremen:

Lars Kaleschke suggests via Twitter this revealing SMOS thickness animation:

@GreatWhiteCon If you want to quantify the recent dramatic #Arctic sea ice decay with SMOS, better use this data pic.twitter.com/UTgDzYWEV7

— Lars Kaleschke (@seaice_de) March 4, 2017

There does seem to be a small patch of slightly thicker ice in the East Siberian Sea off Chaunskaya Bay, but there’s still a much larger area of sub 0.5 meter thick ice in the Laptev and Kara Seas.

The Danish Meteorological Institute’s temperatures for the “Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel” graph shows somewhat more “normal” readings in February 2017, but still without falling below the ERA40 climatology this year or in 2016:

The graph of cumulative Freezing Degree Days (FDD for short) is still far below all previous years in DMI’s records going back to 1958:

Finally, for the moment at least, here’s the high resolution AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area and extent:

I’m going to have to eat some humble pie, or crow pie as I gather it’s usually referred to across the Atlantic, following my tentative “2017 maximum prediction” a couple of weeks ago. Both area and extent posted new highs for the year yesterday, with area creeping above 13 million square kilometers for the first time this year.

[Edit – March 7th]

Commenter Michael Olsen suggests that “thicker ice being pushed into the Alaskan and Russian parts of the Arctic Ocean”. Here’s some evidence:

The United States’ National Weather Service current sea ice stage of development map for Alaskan waters:

This week’s Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development map is expected later today, so for now here’s last week’s:

and here’s the latest version:

Similarly this week’s Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ice chart ~~is expected soon~~ has been published:

[Edit – March 11th]

Especially for Michael, a visual image of all the “thicker ice [that’s been] pushed into the Russian parts of the Arctic Ocean” courtesy of the nice folks at NASA:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Chukchi Sea on March 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

[Edit – March 12th]

Yet another strong Arctic cyclone has been battering the sea ice in the Arctic Basin. According to Environment Canada this one bottomed out at 971 hPa at 06:00 UTC today.

Alternative Facts in the Arctic – Case Study 2

February 15, 2017VolumeMike Haseler, PIOMAS, VolumeJim Hunt

I had the profound joy of bumping into Mike Haseler on Twitter earlier today. After much bandying of words about global temperature the “debate” headed north to the Arctic. Here are the edited highlights:

I feel sure this story will run and run, but I’ve got to rush off up the M5 soon. Consider this as an appetiser, with the main course to follow in due course.

Watch this space!

Facts About the Arctic in February 2017

February 4, 2017VolumeAMSR2, ASIF, Barrow, DMI, FDD, GFS, Longyearbyen, PIOMAS, Snow Cover, Svalbard, Volume, WipneusJim Hunt

The PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume numbers for January 2017 have just been published. Yet another new record low for the date:

Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness for January 31st, courtesy of Wipneus at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:

Somewhat anomalously it shows the thickest ice some distance away from the coast of Greenland and/or Ellesmere Island. Here too is Andy Lee Robinson‘s updated PIOMAS “Arctic death spiral”:

Meanwhile yet more anomalously warm air is entering the Arctic Basin from both the Pacific and Atlantic sides:

That sort of thing has happened quite a few times over the 2016/17 freezing season, as you can see from this graph of cumulative Freezing Degree Days (FDD for short):

The FDD graph is based on the same data as the probably much more familiar DMI “Daily mean temperatures for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel” graph:

Things are warming up in the Arctic once again.

[Edit – February 5th]

Whilst we await the arrival of the forecast anomalous warmth, how are some other metrics coming along? Here’s the high resolution AMSR2 area and extent:

It looks like they’re back in the “normal” range for now, does it not?

[Edit – February 6th]

Things currently still look fairly frosty over on the Pacific side of the Arctic, as you can see from the webcam at Utqiagvik (Barrow as was):

However over on the Atlantic side (and especially for “Richard”!) melting can now be observed on Svalbard:

An extremely powerful cyclone off Greenland is pumping heat and moisture northwards:

Note that the cyclone’s MSLP fell to 940 hPa earlier today. This is the GFS precipitable water forecast for Wednesday lunchtime:

Finally, for the moment at least, here’s the current weather forecast for Longyearbyen in Svalbard:

All in all there’s plenty more heat and moisture on the way.

[Edit – February 13th]

The temperatures in Svalbard have now dropped back below freezing point:

As temperatures over parts of the Arctic Basin have reached zero degrees Celsius and above, Arctic sea ice extent has been declining:

Now take a look at area:

Area has declined a lot! That’s because sea ice concentration is now noticeably <100% across much of the Arctic:

There’s also been a discernable change in slope of the DMI freezing degree days graph:

[Edit – February 19th]

There’s been a late spurt of growth in both area and extent, which are now back in the pack of previous years:

The newly frozen areas are currently still very thin:

Meanwhile northern hemisphere snow cover has started to melt in earnest:

Watch this space!

December 2016 Arctic Report Card

December 16, 2016Ice AgeAge, AGU, AMSR2, Area, Don Perovich, Extent, NSIDC, PIOMAS, Temperature, VolumeJim Hunt

This is the Great White Con version as opposed to the NOAA version published during the Fall AGU conference earlier this week, although there is some overlap.

Hot off the presses, here’s how Arctic sea ice age has progressed over the last year and a bit:

The 4 and 5 year old ice looks to be edging away from the area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago towards the Fram Strait. Here’s the current CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map:

Almost no ice over 2 meters thick to be found in the Beaufort sector or anywhere on the Siberian side of the Arctic. Here’s the current AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area graph:

Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s the NSIDC’s long term trend in November sea ice extent:

Act 1 of a 3 act play according to Don Perovich at AGU. Here’s the current PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume anomaly graph:

Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s NOAA’s Arctic and global surface temperature graph:

Warmest in a record going back to 1900. Here’s the current DMI >80N surface temperature graph:

and here’s the current Arctic surface temperature anomaly map:

Finally, for the moment at least, here’s global sea ice area just for good measure:

Need I say more? How about this:

Ice has no agenda. It just melts.
Out of the labs and into the streets?

Global Sea Ice At Record Low Levels

November 6, 2016VolumeAntarctic, NSIDC, PIOMAS, VolumeJim Hunt

NSIDC 5 day averaged Antarctic sea ice extent is now at a record low level for the date, since satellite measurements began in 1979:

NSIDC 5 day averaged Arctic sea ice extent has been at a record low level for the date for quite a while:

Combining those two facts means that global sea ice extent is also at a record low level for the date by a considerable margin. The gap with all previous years in the satellite record is even more stark if you look at global sea ice area:

The October Arctic sea ice volume numbers from PIOMAS have also just been published:

By October 31st that metric was also “lowest ever” for the date.

The 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Metric Minima

September 2, 2016ExtentAMSR2, Bremen Uni, CT, DMI, Hamburg Uni, JAXA, NSIDC, PIOMAS, ROOS, SSMIS, Tony HellerJim Hunt

September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:

I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?

I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:

and then there’s (one of) his previous one(s), from the Danish Meteorological Institute:

Amongst the “industry standards” Cryosphere Today area is missing in action so here’s the National Snow & Ice Data Center’s 5 day average extent:

and JAXA extent:

Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:

Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?

[Edit – September 3rd]

Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:

It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:

and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:

As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:

Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.

[Edit – September 4th]

An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:

#Arctic sea ice #SeptemberMinimum approaching. Different independent satellite data sources agree on trends. pic.twitter.com/GDM812lZ9Y

— Lars Kaleschke (@seaice_de) September 4, 2016

[Edit – September 5th]

Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:

[Edit – September 11th]

Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:

A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:

Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.

[Edit – September 14th]

The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:

Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:

which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:

The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:

Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!

[Edit – September 15th]

With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:

Need I say more?

[Edit – September 20th]

The September cyclone has now done its worst:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite

Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:

2016 Minimum Milestones

September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²

September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²

September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.

September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²

September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²

More Of The Usual Hype About Arctic Sea Ice

April 4, 2016VolumeAndrew Montford, Area, Chris Reynolds, CT, GWPF, GWPFAAA, Paul Homewood, PIOMAS, VolumeJim Hunt

No sooner has one of the usual suspects claimed that “Arctic Sea Ice Holds Firm” than a few more jump on the same bandwagon. The Global Warming Policy Forum have republished almost the whole of an article penned by our old friend Paul Homewood entitled “More Of The Usual Hype About Arctic Ice“. According to Paul (and Benny):

Far from collapsing, Arctic sea ice area has been remarkably stable in the last decade

He illustrates his point using a slightly different version of the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area anomaly graph employed by Andrew Montford on March 29th. Here’s the latest version:

For some strange reason Paul (and Benny) neglect to mention that the current anomaly of -1.199 million square kilometers is the most negative it has ever been for the day of the year in the entirety of the Cryosphere Today record going back to 1979. They also neglect to mention that the CT anomaly is typically much larger in summer than in winter, and that despite that fact the CT anomaly never fell as low as -1.199 at any time of year until 2006.

Make sure to follow the first link above for much more on anomalously misleading area graphs. However Paul (and Benny) are not content with just one misleading interpretation of an anomaly graph. The article continues:

With multi year ice continuing to recover from 2008 lows, ice volume has also been growing in the last few years.

Whilst we all eagerly await the release of the PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume numbers for March 2016, here is an alternative visualisation of the data from Chris Reynolds:

Volume is the second lowest on record [for February] since 1978 at 20.660 thousand km cubed

In the Central Arctic, where it matters most, sea ice volume at the end of February was only a whisker above where it was in 2012, according to PIOMAS at least. For those with short memories the CT Arctic sea ice area metric reached an *all time low of 2.23401 million square kilometers on September 13th 2012, and an *all time low anomaly of -2.81817 million square kilometers on October 14th 2012.

*Since the Cryosphere Today records began

Inside the BBC’s Arctic Sea Ice Science

July 24, 2015VolumeAdam Rutherford, BBC, CPOM, CryoSat-2, Inside Science, PIOMAS, Rachel Tilling, Radio 4, VolumeJim Hunt

I’m sure we’ll get stuck into to some real science eventually, but for the moment we’re still taking a long, hard look at mainstream media coverage of the latest learned journal article on Arctic sea ice to be misinterpreted by the media. Compared to some others one might mention the report on the BBC web site about the new CPOM paper in Nature Geoscience entitled “Increased Arctic sea ice volume after anomalously low melting in 2013” was relatively accurate. Entitled “Arctic ice ‘grew by a third’ after cool summer in 2013“, it said that:

Researchers say the growth continued in 2014 and more than compensated for losses recorded in the three previous years.

The scientists involved believe changes in summer temperatures have greater impacts on ice than thought.

But they say 2013 was a one-off and that climate change will continue to shrink the ice in the decades ahead.

The Arctic region has warmed more than most other parts of the planet over the past 30 years.

Satellite observations have documented a decrease of around 40% in the extent of sea ice cover in the Arctic since 1980.

and

The researchers used 88 million measurements of sea ice thickness from Cryosat and found that between 2010 and 2012, the volume of sea ice went down by 14%.

They published their initial findings at the end of 2013 – but have now refined and updated them to include data from 2014 as well.

Relative to the average of the period between 2010 and 2012, the scientists found that there was a 33% increase in sea ice volume in 2013, while in 2014 there was still a quarter more sea ice than there was between 2010 and 2012.

At this juncture one is forced to ask oneself the question that if there was 33% more sea ice in 2013 than there was between 2010 and 2012, but only 25% more in 2014 how it was possible that “the growth continued in 2014”?

Desperately hoping that the BBC might be able to explain this conundrum to us we avidly listened to Adam Rutherford’s interview with Rachel Tilling, the lead author of the paper in question, on BBC Radio 4’s “Inside Science” programme last night. We were also hoping that at long last there might be some quantification of what’s happened to the VOLUME of “sea ice cover in the Arctic since 1980”. Sadly all our hopes were dashed, and Adam never posed the vital questions.

You can download a recording of the broadcast from the link above. Adam’s interview with Rachel starts at 7:00 minutes. He begins by talking about:

The publication in Nature Geoscience this week of a new paper that shows that in 2013, which was a slightly cooler summer than average, Arctic ice had grown, not just a tad, but by a WHOPPING 41% on the previous year!

Rachel Tilling then begins by saying:

The thickness and the volume are actually the most important measurements we can get, because the area’s been really, really useful in giving us an overview of how the Arctic is changing, but it only really gives us half the picture.

Here’s the full picture, taken from our Arctic Sea Ice Graphs page. Since CryoSat-2 measurements only go back as far as 2010, this graph shows Arctic sea ice volume calculated by the PIOMAS model developed by the Polar Science Center at the University of Washington:

Is that WHOPPING increase in Arctic sea ice volume from 2012 to 2013 clear to you now? At 11:00 minutes into the programme Adam says:

You can see how this is going to be interpreted. You know, with 30 years of Arctic sea ice shrinking, and then suddenly it gets bigger, you’re still OK with climate change being a real thing, and global warming being a real thing?

I can see that very clearly Adam, thanks for asking, and YES is the answer to your final question. It still wasn’t clear to me whether that would be clear to Adam’s listeners however, so I posed a pertinent question on Twitter first of all:

@flimsin @icey_mark @rachel_tilling @AdamRutherford Disappointingly there was no mention of "41% of nothing" however: http://t.co/tb2KAlX2E4

— Snow White (@GreatWhiteCon) July 23, 2015

That didn’t elicit any response, so then I tried following Adam’s instructions at the end of the interview to:

Do let us know what you think – [email protected]

This is what I thought:

Hello Adam,

Further to your recent interview with Rachel Tilling, and your joint Twitter conversation with my alter ego “Snow White”, I’d like to reiterate how disappointed the two of us are that during your conversation with Rachel there was no mention of “41% of nothing”. Twitter speak for “Doesn’t anybody at the BBC have the faintest idea what Arctic sea ice volume was 30 years ago, in April and in October?”

By way of additional context see e.g.

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2015/07/an-inconvenient-truth-about-the-mails-climate-coverage/

http://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2015/07/cool-arctic-summer-brought-brief-recovery-in-2013-sea-ice-loss/

https://greatWhiteCon.info/resources/

Yours in dismay,

Jim Hunt

and this is the response I got from BBC Inside Science:

Dear Sir or Madam

Thank you very much for your email. While all emails are read – and we appreciate input from listeners – we cannot reply to each one individually. There are simply too many!

For more information about Inside Science, please go to our webpage:

Inside Science, Radio 4
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b036f7w2

For individual programmes, click on ‘Episodes’.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/b036f7w2/episodes/guide

Once you have located a particular programme page, you will see a link to ‘Listen now’- on the picture of Dr. Adam Rutherford.
‘Related Links’ are found further down on the right hand side of the page.

Downloads/Podcasts of Inside Science are available at:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/podcasts/series/inscience

Thanks again and do keep sending your comments in – listener feedback helps us make better programmes for you.

Yours sincerely

Inside Science, Radio 4

Meanwhile, over on Twitter:

An Inconvenient Truth About The Mail’s Climate Coverage

July 23, 2015VolumeCPOM, CryoSat-2, Daily Mail, Damian Carrington, David Rose, Guardian, IPSO, PIOMAS, Rachel Tilling, Spectator, UCL, VolumeJim Hunt

A new paper has just been published by the CryoSat-2 team at University College London. The lead author is Rachel Tilling, a PhD student in the Centre for Polar Observation & Modelling at UCL. We’ll get on to the science in due course, but first let’s take a look at how Rachel’s paper has been reported in the Great British mainstream media. In a headline redolent of our old friends at the Mail on Sunday The [headline writer for the] Guardian’s Damian Carrington proclaims that:

Arctic sea ice volume showed strong recovery in 2013

Cooler temperatures revived sea ice levels suggesting a rapid recovery was possible if global warming was curbed, scientists say

Yesterday wasn’t a Sunday, so David Rose was writing in The Spectator instead of The Mail, asking rhetorically:

Was the global warming pause a myth?

Of course it was David! We explained that to you back in January!

The Daily Mail Group couldn’t let a juicy headline go begging just because it’s midweek, so an anonymous leader writer came up with this one:

Climate change and an inconvenient truth

The “Daily Mail Comment” continues:

In a major report last year, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change gave a grave assessment of how man-made global warming was rapidly destroying the Arctic ice cap.

Steadily increasing temperatures had made the pack ice contract by up to 12 per cent between 1979 and 2012, leading to rising sea levels which threatened to swamp coastal regions – not to mention endangering stranded polar bears.

By the middle of the century ‘a nearly ice-free Arctic Ocean’ was likely for a large part of the year, the report predicted.

How interesting then, that the latest analysis of 88million measurements from the European Space Agency’s Cryosat satellite show the northern ice-cap INCREASED by a staggering 41 per cent in 2013 and, despite a modest shortage last year, is bigger than at any time for decades.

After that it prattles on about the “pause”, so for now let’s take a look at the paper that’s got the papers so excited. For some strange reason it’s title makes no mention of a “strong recovery in 2013”, instead describing:

Increased Arctic sea ice volume after anomalously low melting in 2013

Searching the paper for the word “recovery” returns zero results, so you may well be wondering what it actually does say? Here’s a pertinent, albeit brief, extract from the abstract:

Between autumn 2010 and 2012, there was a 14% reduction in Arctic sea ice volume, in keeping with the long-term decline in extent. However, we observe 33% and 25% more ice in autumn 2013 and 2014, respectively, relative to the 2010–2012 seasonal mean, which offset earlier losses. This increase was caused by the retention of thick sea ice northwest of Greenland during 2013 which, in turn, was associated with a 5% drop in the number of days on which melting occurred—conditions more typical of the late 1990s. In contrast, springtime Arctic sea ice volume has remained stable.

Let’s compare that with the Mail’s version shall we? Whilst searching the paper for the word “ice” returns lots of results a search for the word “cap” returns zero results, just like “recovery”. Any investigative journalist (or leader writer) who had investigated Wikipedia would have discovered this:

An ice cap is an ice mass that covers less than 50,000 km² of land area (usually covering a highland area). Masses of ice covering more than 50,000 km² are termed an ice sheet.

Thus the Arctic Ocean is not covered by an “ice-cap [that] INCREASED by a staggering 41 per cent in 2013” because, as it’s name suggests, it’s an ocean and not a land area. Assuming for the moment that the Mail leader writer is in actual fact referring to sea ice cover in the Arctic, then according to Rachel Tilling’s paper CryoSat-2 “observed 33% more ice in autumn 2013”. Where did the Mail’s “41%” come from then? Their patent pending hot air generator in reverse gear?

Moving on, the Mail must also have a top secret time machine hidden in the basement of Northcliffe House that will enable their leader writer to travel back and change history, because here once again is Andy Lee Robinson’s graphic visualisation of what’s really been happening to the volume of sea ice in the Arctic over the past few decades, albeit using PIOMAS sized ice cubes rather than the CryoSat-2 flavour:

Needless to say I have already lodged an official complaint about the antics of The Daily Mail’s imaginary time machine. If you would like to do as well then here is the appropriate form to fill in:

http://dailymail.co.uk/readerseditor

For any IPSO case officers (or Guardian writers) that might be watching please feel free to read all about 41% of nothing, and if you prefer graphs to moving pictures here’s one that shows Arctic sea ice volume in Spring from our PIOMAS regional volume page: