Facts About the Arctic in May 2025

May 2, 2025NewsAMSR2, Aqua, Area, AWI, Bering Sea, CryoSat-2, Dave Borlace, Extent, Greenland Sea, JAXA, Just Have a Think, Kara Sea, Laptev Sea, MSLP, Nome, North Water Polynya, NSIDC, Ostrov Golomjannyj, PIOMAS, Rutgers, Severnaya Zemlya, SMOS, Snow Cover, SSPs, Temperature, Terra, Troynoy Island, VolumeJim Hunt

JAXA/ViSHOP extent is no longer “lowest for the date”! After “flatlining” for most of April the metric is now in the midst of a close knit group of the other years in the 2020s:

The high pressure area over the Central Arctic persisted through the second half of April, and so did the consequent drift of ice from the Pacific side of the Arctic to the Atlantic periphery:

AWI’s sea ice area for the Greenland Sea is currently “highest for the date” in the AMSR2 record that started in July 2012:

The offshore winds along the Laptev Sea coast have continued, and sea ice area is now “lowest for the date”:

The first signs of a break in the high pressure dominance are appearing. GFS currently forecasts that a low pressure area will enter the Central Arctic, bring above zero temperatures over the Kara Sea on Sunday:

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Facts About the Arctic in April 2025

April 5, 2025NewsAWI, Beaufort Sea, Chukchi Sea, CryoSat-2, Extent, JAXA, New Siberian Islands, PIOMAS, Sentinel, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

JAXA/ViSHOP extent finished the month of March “lowest for the date” once again:

However, since then the graph has been “flatlining” and extent is now above 2019 and rapidly approaching the rest of the recent pack.

At the end of March PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 21.21 thousand km³, still 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

Here is the corresponding PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for March 31st 2025:

For comparison purposes, here is the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

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The 2025 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

March 12, 2025NewsAWI, Extent, JAXA, NSIDC, OSI SAF, Zack LabeJim Hunt

The time has arrived to start taking a close look at the assorted different Arctic sea ice extent metrics, in order to ascertain their respective maxima for 2025. To begin with here’s Zack Labe’s overview of previous years’ maxima:

It now seems highly likely that 2025’s maximum extent will ultimately prove to be the lowest in the satellite era. The remaining question is when this year’s maximum will occur.

My speculation yesterday that AWI’s flavour of Arctic sea ice extent had already achieved its maximum value for 2025 has been negated today:

The NSIDC 5 day average and JAXA extent metrics are also currently at their maximum levels for the year so far, so let’s wait and see which one is the first to take a downward turn.

[Update – March 28th]

The National Snow and Ice Data Center have called the maximum extent of Arctic sea ice for 2025:

On March 22, Arctic sea ice likely reached its maximum extent for the year, at 14.33 million square kilometers, the lowest in the 47-year satellite record. This year’s maximum extent is 1.31 million square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 average maximum of 15.64 million square kilometers and 80,000 square kilometers below the previous lowest maximum that occurred on March 7, 2017.
Continue reading The 2025 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent →

Facts About the Arctic in March 2025

March 11, 2025NewsAWI, CryoSat-2, Extent, JAXA, PIOMAS, Sentinel, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

After spending several weeks in the unfortunate position of lowest for the date, JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent has just risen above 2015. By a mere 10,000 km²:

Despite the fact that JAXA extent is still rising, AWI extent has potentially already achieved its maximum value for 2025:

Somewhat belatedly, here is the PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for February 28th 2025:

At the end of February Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 19.32 thousand km³, still 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

For comparison purposes, here is the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

AWI have also released a new version of their thickness product, incorporating additional data from the two Sentinel 3 satellites. The thickness data for February 28th, looks slightly different:

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Facts About the Arctic in February 2025

February 2, 2025NewsAndrew Cotton, CryoSat-2, Cyclone, Extent, GWCABBWSC, JAXA, MSLP, North Pole, PIOMAS, Red Bull, SMOS, Svalbard, Temperature, Volume, WavesJim Hunt

This isn’t exactly “shock news”, since we (slightly hesitantly!) predicted this 5 days ago.

A GFS 2 meter temperature chart revealing greater than zero degrees Celsius at the North Pole later today:

The 2 meter temperature anomaly at the Pole is almost off the charts:

Plus the cause of these unusual numbers, a cyclone with central pressure of 959 hPa spinning north of Ellesmere Island at 18:00 UTC this evening:

All of which has led to the JAXA/Vishop Arctic sea ice extent being the lowest for the date since 1979 at least by a significant margin:

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Facts About the Arctic in January 2025

January 6, 2025NewsAMSR2, AWI, Baffin Bay, CAA, CryoSat-2, DMI, Extent, FDD, Hudson Bay, JAXA, Sea Of Okhotsk, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

The New Year began with JAXA/ViSHOP extent lowest for the date in the satellite era, just below 2018 . Since then extent has reduced, and there is now a large gap:

The primary reason for this is the remaining open water in Hudson Bay:

In previous years Hudson Bay has been covered by sea ice by this time of year, but in 2025 a large area remains unfrozen in early January!

Due to the way PIOMAS handles the leap years the last gridded thickness data of 2024 is dated December 30th:

By December 30th Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 13.61 thousand km³, 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

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Facts About the Arctic in December 2024

December 5, 2024NewsCryoSat-2, DMI, Extent, FDD, JAXA, NSIDC, PIOMAS, SMOS, Thickness, VolumeJim Hunt

Christmas is coming, and even as we speak Snow White is heading for the geographical North Pole to assist Santa’s little helpers in their annual gift delivery mission:

We’ll start the festive season with a graph of JAXA/ViSHOP extent, which is in a “statistical tie” with 2020 for 2nd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of November 2024:

On November 30th Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 9.99 thousand km³, 3rd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

For comparison purposes, here is the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

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Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

November 3, 2024NewsAge, AWI, Barents Observer, CryoSat-2, Cyclone, DMI, Extent, Fram Strait, GFS, JAXA, MSLP, New Siberian Islands, Nome, Northern Fleet, NSIDC, NSR, Oleg Golubyev, PIOMAS, Sibir, SMOS, Temperature, Thickness, Utqiaġvik, Volume, Wrangel IslandJim Hunt

The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have now refrozen. Consequently Arctic sea ice extent is now increasing more slowly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Introducing the third dimension, here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of October 2024:

Note the change in scale from previous months, to allow for easier comparison with the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:

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Facts About the Arctic in October 2024

October 5, 2024NewsAARI, AMSR2, AWI, CAA, Chukchi Sea, CIS, CMC, Cyclone, East Siberian Sea, Extent, Fram Strait, Greenland Sea, Hui Da 9, Kara Sea, NSR, PIOMAS, Smoke, ThicknessJim Hunt

The JAXA extent graph is currently not updating, so let’s begin this month with the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute. Click the image to see a ~10 Mb animation of the last four weeks:

Note in particular the restart of export into the East Greenland Sea via the Fram Strait:

and the movement of ice within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2024 has been released:

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The 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent in the Cryodenialosphere

September 24, 2024SatireAl Gore, Anthony Watts, Climate Etc., CryoSat-2, DMI, Extent, IceSat, Javier Vinos, Judith Curry, Matthew Wielicki, NALOPKT, NWP, Paul Homewood, Steve Milloy, Thickness, Volume, WUWTJim Hunt

Earlier today the National Snow and Ice Data Center announced that:

On September 11, Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent of 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles). The 2024 minimum is the seventh lowest in the nearly 46-year satellite record. The last 18 years, from 2007 to 2024, are the lowest 18 sea ice extents in the satellite record…
Note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

Consequently several of the usual cryodenialospheric suspects have been frantically spinning their webs of deceit around the announcement.

First up was Javier Vinós, who beat the NSIDC’s starting gun by firing a broadside on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday. If you’re unfamiliar with the name, Javier frequently pontificates about Arctic sea ice, amongst other things, on Judith Curry’s “Climate Etc.” blog. He confidently announced that:

Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum with an extent greater than in 2007, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2023.

The two warmest years in a row at > +1.5°C have ZERO IMPACT on the 17-year resilience of Arctic sea ice.

Needless to say, “Snow White” felt compelled to quibble:

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The Great White Con

Putting the Arctic sea ice record straight

Facts About the Arctic in May 2025

Facts About the Arctic in April 2025

The 2025 Maximum Arctic Sea Ice Extent

Facts About the Arctic in March 2025

Facts About the Arctic in February 2025

Facts About the Arctic in January 2025

Facts About the Arctic in December 2024

Facts About the Arctic in November 2024

Facts About the Arctic in October 2024

The 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent in the Cryodenialosphere