In 2017 Antarctic sea ice extent is beating all the records. All flavours of the metric are already below the minimum of all previous years in the satellite record, and it looks like there’s still some more melting left to go. Here’s the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
It seems highly likely that the 2017 Antarctic sea ice minimum extent has now been reached. Here’s the NSIDC 5 day averaged extent graph:
The minimum extent of 2.106 million square kilometers was reached on March 3rd. Here’s the University of Bremen’s Antarctic sea ice concentration map for March 3rd:
David Rose is mercifully quiet this weekend, but there’s no rest for the wicked! Christopher Booker in the Sunday Telegraph leads a bunch of the usual Alt-facts suspects in a barrage of fake news about our dearly beloved Arctic sea ice. According to Mr. Booker in the “Arctic Myths” section of his column today:
As the fake science of global warming continues to crumble, one scare story the zealots are determined to hold on to at all costs is their claim that ice in the Arctic is dangerously vanishing. Yet again lately we have been treated to a barrage of such headlines as “Hottest Arctic on record triggers massive ice melt”.
The nearest we got to such a headline here at the Great White Con was “Arctic Sea Ice News from AGU” in which article we showed images which said things like:
That’s because last year was the *hottest year on record in the Arctic! Undeterred by mere facts Mr. Booker continues:
But that ever-diligent blogger Paul Homewood has drawn on official sources such as the US National Snow and Ice Data Center to uncover what is actually happening. Under “Arctic Fake News”, on NotALotOfPeopleKnowThat, he posted a graph showing that last week the extent of sea ice was much the same as it has been at this date ever since 2001. Indeed, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, there is even more of it today than in February 2006, and it is also significantly thicker. Back in 2008 much of the ice was only a metre thick. Today that has risen to two metres, and in some places four.
Mr. Booker appears to be more than somewhat confused, since this is what the DMI Arctic sea ice extent graph he links to reveals:
In addition the DMI thickness maps he refers to aren’t available at any of the places he mentions! Not a lot of people know that he was probably thinking of another recent article by Paul Homewood entitled “Arctic Ice Fake News“, which includes these two DMI thickness maps:
Even without considering other sources of Arctic thickness and/or volume data it is quite clear from the two volume graphs that according to the Danish Meteorological Institue Arctic sea ice volume is significantly lower this year than it was in 2008. If Arctic sea ice extent is greater this year and the volume is lower then the laws of physics (which not even the combined talents of Messrs Homewood and Booker can change) dictate that its average thickness must be LESS this year than in 2008!
Mr Booker blunders on:
The DMI data also show that the Greenland ice sheet, which we are told is melting at horrendous speed, is actually growing this year at a record rate, to a size way above its average for the past 26 years. And the most authoritative record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover shows this year’s ranking as one of the six highest since 1967.
He seems blissfully unaware that the “DMI data” to which he refers is the output of a DMI climate model that attempts to determine the “surface mass balance” of the Greenland ice sheet. He seems to think it’s a measurement of the mass of the Greenland ice sheet, which it isn’t. However this is, courtesy of NASA:
In his bubble of astounding Arctic ignorance Mr. Booker continues:
The Deplorable Climate Science blog, run by US expert Tony Heller, gleefully reproduces a 2007 headline: “Scientists: ‘Arctic is screaming’, global warming may have passed tipping point”. As Heller comments: “The Arctic is indeed screaming at climate scientists – to shut up.”
Now as luck would have it I have been (vainly!) attempting to persuade Mr. Heller “to shut up” on the very article Mr. Booker references! Let’s take a quick look at a couple of highlights shall we?
It seems safe to assume that Mr. Booker wasn’t reading Mr Heller’s blog on or after February 22nd does it not? Otherwise he would surely have had second thoughts about writing such a ludicrous phrase as “there is even more of it today than in February 2006”?
Then of course there’s the burning question of the “Hottest Arctic on record”
You seem to have forgotten about spring Gail? Here’s April:
Here’s the May graph from “the most authoritative record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover” for good measure:
To summarise, Messrs Booker and Homewood could have confined their due diligence on their assorted Arctic articles to reading my comments on Mr. Heller’s blog. Having done so it would quickly have become apparent to them that every single point they made was in actual fact a “fake fact”.
The inevitable conclusion is that they have no interest whatsoever in establishing the actual facts about the Arctic. All they are interested in is propagating “fake news” about the Arctic as far and as wide as possible in pursuit of a common “agenda”. As is David Rose.
It’s far too early to be sure about this yet, but it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the 2017 maximum is already in place. Here’s our favourite high resolution extent graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
The current maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2017 is 13.49 million square kilometers on February 19th. Here’s Arctic sea ice area for good measure:
The current maximum area for 2017 is 12.88 million square kilometers on February 20th. Here also is the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:
This reveals a current maximum extent for 2017 of 14.302 million square kilometers on February 20th.
[Edit – March 1st]
Here are the high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs for the end of February:
With each day that passes the highs of February 19th/20th look more likely to have been this years maximum. Nonetheless past experience suggests it’s still far to soon to be sure about that.
[Edit – March 10th]
Arctic sea ice area and extent are declining again, having reached new heights for the year on March 3rd:
However the 2013/14 winter showed a late surge is still possible.
[Edit – March 18th]
A “late surge” is looking increasingly unlikely. That being the case, here is our provisional long term graph of NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent:
Subject to an unanticipated “surge” the 2017 maximum of 14.447 million square kilometers occurred on March 5th.
JAXA extent has dropped steeply over the last couple of days, and it is now once again “lowest for the date since records began”:
The 2017 JAXA maximum of 13.878 million square kilometers occurred on March 6th.
In the continuing absence of updates to Cryosphere Today area, here’s the high resolution Arctic sea ice area graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:
The maximum for that particular metric was 13.03 million square kilometers on March 3rd.
Here once again is the up to date version of Wipneus’ graphic graphic, this time of global sea ice extent:
As you can see, global sea ice extent has just reached the lowest ever level in the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s satellite records going back to 1979. It was over a month later when the previous record was broken in February 2016, so there is plenty of time for the metric to fall further.
The 2017 curves in the NSIDC’s own extent graphs are coloured in a pale shade of blue. Even so they’re easy to pick out since both Antarctic and Arctic extent are at the lowest level for the date in NSIDC’s records by a considerable margin:
Antarctic sea ice extent is still falling, and the Arctic has been flatlining for several days now and more trouble is heading its way. Another Fram Strait cyclone is brewing, and this time around the storm’s minimum central pressure is already down to 957 hPa according to Environment Canada:
According to the current forecasts it will continue to spin over the central Arctic for several more days, driving export of sea ice via the Fram Strait:
This is the Great White Con version as opposed to the NOAA version published during the Fall AGU conference earlier this week, although there is some overlap.
Hot off the presses, here’s how Arctic sea ice age has progressed over the last year and a bit:
The 4 and 5 year old ice looks to be edging away from the area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago towards the Fram Strait. Here’s the current CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map:
Almost no ice over 2 meters thick to be found in the Beaufort sector or anywhere on the Siberian side of the Arctic. Here’s the current AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area graph:
Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s the NSIDC’s long term trend in November sea ice extent:
Act 1 of a 3 act play according to Don Perovich at AGU. Here’s the current PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume anomaly graph:
Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s NOAA’s Arctic and global surface temperature graph:
Warmest in a record going back to 1900. Here’s the current DMI >80N surface temperature graph:
and here’s the current Arctic surface temperature anomaly map:
Finally, for the moment at least, here’s global sea ice area just for good measure:
Need I say more? How about this:
Ice has no agenda. It just melts.
Out of the labs and into the streets?
NSIDC 5 day averaged Antarctic sea ice extent is now at a record low level for the date, since satellite measurements began in 1979:
NSIDC 5 day averaged Arctic sea ice extent has been at a record low level for the date for quite a while:
Combining those two facts means that global sea ice extent is also at a record low level for the date by a considerable margin. The gap with all previous years in the satellite record is even more stark if you look at global sea ice area:
CryoSat-2 has burst back into life after its summer break. Here is what it reveals about Arctic sea ice thickness at the moment:
Perhaps not entirely coincidentally, the NSIDC 5 day average Arctic sea ice extent is once again less than on the same day of 2012, the year of the “record melt”:
The Central Arctic has of course already been battered by the Great Arctic Cyclone(s) of August 2016. The minimum sea ice extent has been called by the NSIDC, with a slight proviso:
Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss.
Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.
On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles).
Now, however, yet another cyclone is raging in the Central Arctic. According to Environment Canada this one is already down to a mean sea level pressure of 975 hPa:
As our regular readers will be well aware, at this time of year strong winds beget large swells. On this occasion it looks as though Barrow will get another battering, as well as the remaining and refreezing sea ice. Here’s the current WaveWatch III significant wave height forecast for September 18th:
Such large swells on the surface of the Arctic Ocean don’t only physically break up the sea ice. Last September scientists aboard the University of Alaska’s research icebreaker Sikuliaq observed the effects of a similar storm in the Beaufort Sea. According to Jennifer MacKinnon, Chief Scientist on the ArcticMix voyage:
One of the funny things about the Arctic is that there’s a reservoir of heat beneath the surface here.
So the more the wind is blowing on the ocean, the more it’s mixing this heat upwards. Which is bringing warmer water to the surface at a pretty rapid rate, warming the surface and accelerating the rate at which this ice is melting.
And if storms like this continue, as there’s more open water, more storms mean more exposed surface. It will not only melt the ice in the summer, but delay the onset of fall ice formation and accelerate the onset of spring ice melting.
In October 2015 the Sikuliaq was back in the Beaufort Sea observing the effect of storm swells on refreezing sea ice. Here’s a report from Chief Scientist Jim Thomson:
A strong easterly wind event came through that built large waves — waves that got to almost five meters in height. And the winds were something like up to thirty knots. And these waves were coming into the newly forming ice and making pancake ice.
There was a very warm layer of water 20 meters down beneath the surface. And these waves coming in were enough to drive additional mixing and bring that warm water up from the subsurface and that warm water melted the ice and changed that balance happening at the surface.
As if all that wasn’t already enough to worry about look who’s waiting in the wings. Tropical Storm Ian is heading towards the Arctic Circle at a rate of knots, even as we speak:
SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016
AKZ202-171230-
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF BARROW…PITT POINT…NULAVIK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016
.TODAY AND TONIGHT…
.WIND… WESTERLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.SURF HEIGHT… 2 TO 5 FT.
.SURF TEMP… 36 DEGREES F.
.TIDES… LOW SAT 0826 AM -0.03
HIGH SAT 0230 PM 0.38
LOW SAT 0846 PM -0.02
HIGH SUN 0250 AM 0.38
…HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY…
* WAVES AND SURF…WAVES TO 10 FEET BREAKING JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH TIDES UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.
* ICE…WITH ICE JUST OFF SHORE FROM BARROW…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHUNKS OF SEA ICE WILL WASH UP ON SHORE EVEN WITH WINDS PREDICTED TO BE AT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE.
* WINDS…WEST 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.
* TIMING…HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.
* IMPACTS…HIGH SURF WILL WASH TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH AND CAUSE BEACH EROSION. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE AND SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH.
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…
A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH LIMITING TRAVEL NEAR THE BEACH. PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE BOATS AND PERSONAL PROPERTY INLAND FROM THE BEACH.
[Edit – September 19th]
Somewhat belatedly, before:
and after:
the storm images from the Barrow webcam, which has just burst back into life. Plus an image of the cyclone from on high:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:
I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?
I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:
Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:
Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?
[Edit – September 3rd]
Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:
It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:
and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:
As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:
Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.
[Edit – September 4th]
An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:
[Edit – September 11th]
Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:
A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:
Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.
[Edit – September 14th]
The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:
Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:
which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:
The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:
Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!
[Edit – September 15th]
With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:
Need I say more?
[Edit – September 20th]
The September cyclone has now done its worst:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:
2016 Minimum Milestones
September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²
September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²
September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.
September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²
September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²
A storm is brewing in the Arctic. A big one! The crew of the yacht Northabout are currently sailing along the western shore of the Laptev Sea and reported earlier today that:
The sea is calm. Tomorrow a gale 8. But this moment is perfect.
That perfect moment will not last long. Here is the current ECMWF forecast for midnight tomorrow:
and here is the current Arctic surf forecast for 06:00 UTC on Monday:
A 975 hPa low pressure system will be creating 3 meter waves with a period of around 8 seconds heading across the East Siberian Sea in the direction of the ice edge. By midnight on Monday the cyclone is forecast to have deepened to a central pressure below 970 hPa:
All of this is rather reminiscent of the “Great Arctic Cyclone” in the summer of 2012, which looked like this on August 7th:
and which ultimately led to the lowest Arctic sea ice extent in the satellite record. Using the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s numbers that was 3.41 million square kilometers on September 16th 2012. Here’s the NSIDC’s current graph comparing 2012 with this year:
I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?
Here’s how the Great Arctic Cyclone of 2016 looks from on high this morning:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the ‘Great Arctic Cyclone’ on August 15th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
The latest synopsis from Environment Canada shows that the central pressure of the cyclone is now down to 974 hPa:
The WaveWatch III forecast for noon today UTC confirms the forecast of two days ago:
P.S. The Canadian 0600Z synopsis has the cyclone’s SLP down to 971 hPa:
[Edit – August 16th]
This morning the cyclone’s SLP is down to 969 hPa:
and the clouds over the Central Arctic are parting:
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Arctic Basin on August 16th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
Our favourite method of seeing through the clouds using the AMSR2 maps from the University of Hamburg doesn’t seem to working at the moment, so here’s one from the University of Bremen instead:
The cyclone central pressure is now up to 983 hPa, and some indications of the effect it has had on the sea ice in the Arctic are being revealed:
[Edit – August 19th]
According to Environment Canada the cyclone’s central pressure rose to 985 hPa earlier today:
However the 987 hPa low near the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is currently forecast to deepen below 980 hPa over the next 24 hours. Here’s the ECMWF forecast for first thing tomorrow morning:
The high resolution AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area has reduced by another 133.5 thousand square kilometers since yesterday. A similar drop tomorrow will take us below the 2015 minimum.
[Edit – August 19th PM]
The MSLP of the rejuvenated cyclone had dropped to 976 hPa by 12:00 UTC today:
The ECMWF forecast for lunchtime tomorrow is for something similar:
[Edit – August 20th]
The current incarnation of the cyclone bottomed out at 971 hPa near the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:
The 72 hour forecast from ECMWF for the next phase of GAC 2016 is beginning to enter the realms of plausibility. Here’s what it reveals:
The University of Hamburg have been processing more AMSR2 data from 2012. You can argue until the cows come home about which is the best metric to peruse at this time of year, but try this one for size:
That’s the high resolution AMSR2 sea ice area for the Arctic Basin, comprising the CAB plus Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas.
[Edit – August 25th]
There’s a bit of a gap in the clouds over the Central Arctic today:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Central Arctic Basin on August 25th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
This is merely the calm before the next storm. Here is the current ECMWF forecast for Saturday lunchtime (UTC):
Low pressure on the Siberian side of the Arctic and high pressure on the Canadian side producing an impressive dipole with lots of sea ice “drift” towards the Atlantic:
[Edit – August 27th]
Saturday morning has arrived, and so has the predicted storm. As the centre of the cyclone crossed the coast of the East Siberian Sea its central pressure had fallen to 967 hPa, whilst the high pressure over Alaska had risen to 1028 hPa:
The effect of the earlier bursts of high wind is apparent in the high resolution AMSR2 sea ice area graph:
However they are not as apparent in the corresponding extent graph:
[Edit – August 28th]
As the centre of the cyclone heads for the North Pole the isobars are tightening across the last refuge of multi-year sea ice north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago and Greenland:
The area north of the East Siberian Sea that was predicted to bear the brunt of the wind and waves overnight is still covered in cloud. However the latest AMSR2 update from the University of Hamburg suggests that open water now stretches as far as 86 degrees north:
The skies over the northern Chukchi Sea have cleared to reveal this:
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the northern Chukchi Sea on August 28th 2016, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
[Edit – August 29th]
Some of the effects of the recent high winds can be judged by this Canadian Ice Service chart of ice concentration near the North Pole:
[Edit – September 1st]
Arctic sea ice area continues to fall quickly for the time of year:
The recent dipole has finally caused some compaction of the scattered sea ice. Hence the high resolution AMSR2 extent is following suit and is now below last year’s minimum:
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