Tag Archives: NSIDC

The United States’ National Snow and Ice Data Center

Facts About the Arctic in June 2017

After a comparatively cool May, surface air temperatures in the high Arctic are back up to “normal”:

DMI-meanT_20170603

The condition of the sea ice north of 80 degrees is far from normal however. Here’s what’s been happening to the (normally) land fast ice north west of Greenland:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the sea ice north west of Greenland breaking up on June 2nd 2017
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the sea ice north west of Greenland breaking up on June 2nd 2017

Further south surface melt has set in across the southern route through the Northwest Passage:

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Coronation Gulf on June 1st 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Coronation Gulf on June 1st 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

Whilst the gap with previous years has narrowed during May, PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume is still well below all previous years in their records:

piomas-graph-201705

The PIOMAS gridded thickness graph suggests that a large area of thick ice is currently sailing through the Fram Strait to ultimate oblivion:

piomas_gridded_thickness_20170531

Here’s the latest AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area graph:

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-06-02

and just in case melt ponds are now affecting those numbers here is extent as well:

UH-Arctic-Extent-2017-06-02

The rate of decrease is inexorably increasing! 2012 extent is currently still well above that of 2017, but those positions may well be reversed by the end of June? Here’s NSIDC’s view on the matter:

Charctic-20170602

 

[Edit – June 8th]

As requested by Tommy, here’s the current Arctic Basin sea ice area:UH-Basin-Area-2017-06-07

This includes the Beaufort, Chukchi, East Siberian and Laptev Seas along with the Central Arctic. It excludes the Atlantic periphery, which currently looks like this:UH-Atlantic-Area-2017-06-07

 

[Edit – June 10th]

At long last a clear(ish) image of water from the Lena Delta spreading out across the fast ice in the Laptev Sea:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Lena Delta on June 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Lena Delta on June 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

Compare and contrast with June 1st last year:

and June 10th 2012:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Lena Delta on June 10th 2012, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Lena Delta on June 10th 2012, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

 

[Edit – June 11th]

DMI’s daily mean temperature for the Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel has reached zero degrees Celsius almost exactly on the climatological schedule:

DMI-meanT_20170610

We calculate our freezing degree days on the basis of the freezing point of Arctic sea water at -1.8 degrees Celsius. On that basis this winter’s grand total of 3740 was reached on June 1st:

DMI-FDD-20170531

Despite the “coolish” recent weather total FDDs are way below the climatology and other recent years. Consequently there’s a lot less sea ice in the Arctic left to melt at the start of this Central Arctic melting season than in any previous year in the satellite record. However whilst there are some melt ponds visible in the Arctic Basin on MODIS, in that respect 2017 is lagging behind both last year and 2012.

Here’s the latest JAXA surface melt map:AM2SI20170610A_SIT_NP

 

[Edit – June 13th]

JAXA/IJIS/ADS Arctic sea ice extent for 2017 is now above 2012:

VISHOP_Extent-20170612

Meanwhile there are finally signs of some surface melt on the fast ice in the Laptev Sea:

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Laptev Sea on June 13th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Laptev Sea on June 13th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

 

[Edit – June 14th]

An animation of the latest Arctic sea ice age data from Mark Tschudi:

Further confirmation that in 2017 the older, thicker ice is gathered together on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean.

 

[Edit – June 15th]

The Mackenzie River melt waters have now breached the fast ice off the delta:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Mackenzie on June 14th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Mackenzie on June 14th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

 

[Edit – June 16th]

Thanks to the sterling work of Wipneus on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum, here’s a regional breakdown of PIOMAS Arctic Sea Ice volume for the month of May:

PIOMAS-Regions-2017-05

Note the caveat – “No checks, but the data looks plausible”.

 

[Edit – June 17th]

The AMSR2 data feed from the University of Hamburg suffered from a “brief hiatus” a few days ago, but is now back in action:

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-06-15

UH-Arctic-Extent-2017-06-15

Yesterday’s data still hasn’t arrived, but it certainly looks as though 2017 extent will soon drop below 2016.

 

[Edit – June 18th]

The PIOMAS mid month volume update has arrived. The gap between 2012 and 2017 is closing fast:

piomas-2017-D166

Here’s the regional breakdown:

PIOMAS-Regions-2017-D166

 

[Edit – June 23rd]

Here is the ECMWF MSLP forecast for 96 hours time:

ECMWF-20170623+96h-400

A sub 970 hPa cyclone is starting to enter the realms of realistic possibility, and also forecast are some significant waves in the Chukchi Sea and the expanding 2017 “Laptev Bite”:

Significant_height_of_combined_w in multi_1.glo_30mext.20170623_00016

 

[Edit – June 27th]

The forecast cyclone was nowhere near as deep as predicted. According to the analysis by Environment Canada it bottomed out at 980 hPa yesterday:

Synopsis-20170626-00Z-Crop

 

[Edit – June 29th]

O-Buoy 14 is currently firmly embedded in the fast ice of Viscount Melville Sound, deep in the heart of the Northwest Passage. Here’s the view from the buoy’s camera:

OBuoy14-20170629-1201

and here’s the view from space:

Melville-Terra-2017-06-29

Watch this space!

The 2017 Antarctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent

In 2017 Antarctic sea ice extent is beating all the records. All flavours of the metric are already below the minimum of all previous years in the satellite record, and it looks like there’s still some more melting left to go. Here’s the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:

Chantarctic-20170226

and here’s JAXA’s 2 day averaged version:

JAXA-antarctic-feb27-2017

Finally, for the moment at least, here’s the current map of Antarctic sea ice concentration from the University of Bremen:

Bremen_Antarctic_AMSR2_20170227

 

[Edit – March 12th]

It seems highly likely that the 2017 Antarctic sea ice minimum extent has now been reached. Here’s the NSIDC 5 day averaged extent graph:

Chantarctic-20170311

The minimum extent of 2.106 million square kilometers was reached on March 3rd. Here’s the University of Bremen’s Antarctic sea ice concentration map for March 3rd:

asi-AMSR2-s6250-20170303

Shock News! The Telegraph is Propagating Fake News About the Arctic!!

David Rose is mercifully quiet this weekend, but there’s no rest for the wicked! Christopher Booker in the Sunday Telegraph leads a bunch of the usual Alt-facts suspects in a barrage of fake news about our dearly beloved Arctic sea ice. According to Mr. Booker in the “Arctic Myths” section of his column today:

As the fake science of global warming continues to crumble, one scare story the zealots are determined to hold on to at all costs is their claim that ice in the Arctic is dangerously vanishing. Yet again lately we have been treated to a barrage of such headlines as “Hottest Arctic on record triggers massive ice melt”.

The nearest we got to such a headline here at the Great White Con was “Arctic Sea Ice News from AGU” in which article we showed images which said things like:

arctictemp_map_graph_2015-16_620

That’s because last year was the *hottest year on record in the Arctic! Undeterred by mere facts Mr. Booker continues:

Booker-NSIDC-20170226

But that ever-diligent blogger Paul Homewood has drawn on official sources such as the US National Snow and Ice Data Center to uncover what is actually happening. Under “Arctic Fake News”, on NotALotOfPeopleKnowThat, he posted a graph showing that last week the extent of sea ice was much the same as it has been at this date ever since 2001. Indeed, according to the Danish Meteorological Institute, there is even more of it today than in February 2006, and it is also significantly thicker. Back in 2008 much of the ice was only a metre thick. Today that has risen to two metres, and in some places four.

Mr. Booker appears to be more than somewhat confused, since this is what the DMI Arctic sea ice extent graph he links to reveals:

DMI_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_20170225

In addition the DMI thickness maps he refers to aren’t available at any of the places he mentions! Not a lot of people know that he was probably thinking of another recent article by Paul Homewood entitled “Arctic Ice Fake News“, which includes these two DMI thickness maps:

cice_combine_thick_sm_en_20080218

cice_combine_thick_sm_en_20170218

Even without considering other sources of Arctic thickness and/or volume data it is quite clear from the two volume graphs that according to the Danish Meteorological Institue Arctic sea ice volume is significantly lower this year than it was in 2008. If Arctic sea ice extent is greater this year and the volume is lower then the laws of physics (which not even the combined talents of Messrs Homewood and Booker can change) dictate that its average thickness must be LESS this year than in 2008!

Mr Booker blunders on:

The DMI data also show that the Greenland ice sheet, which we are told is melting at horrendous speed, is actually growing this year at a record rate, to a size way above its average for the past 26 years. And the most authoritative record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover shows this year’s ranking as one of the six highest since 1967.

He seems blissfully unaware that the “DMI data” to which he refers is the output of a DMI climate model that attempts to determine the “surface mass balance” of the Greenland ice sheet. He seems to think it’s a measurement of the mass of the Greenland ice sheet, which it isn’t. However this is, courtesy of NASA:

GreenlandGrace-20170213

In his bubble of astounding Arctic ignorance Mr. Booker continues:

The Deplorable Climate Science blog, run by US expert Tony Heller, gleefully reproduces a 2007 headline: “Scientists: ‘Arctic is screaming’, global warming may have passed tipping point”. As Heller comments: “The Arctic is indeed screaming at climate scientists – to shut up.”

Now as luck would have it I have been (vainly!) attempting to persuade Mr. Heller “to shut up” on the very article Mr. Booker references! Let’s take a quick look at a couple of highlights shall we?

February 22, 2017 at 12:01 am

At the risk of repeating myself, need I say more?

PIOMAS-Jan-19Years

It seems safe to assume that Mr. Booker wasn’t reading Mr Heller’s blog on or after February 22nd does it not? Otherwise he would surely have had second thoughts about writing such a ludicrous phrase as “there is even more of it today than in February 2006”?

Then of course there’s the burning question of the “Hottest Arctic on record”

February 22, 2017 at 5:59 pm

At the risk of (repeating myself)² AZ, here’s some “higher atmospheric air temperatures” for you:

DMI-FDD-20170218

If Mr. Booker had browsed Mr. Heller’s blog slightly more diligently he might even have seen this from the much maligned NOAA:

February 20, 2017 at 11:06 am

You seem to have forgotten about spring Gail? Here’s April:

NOAA-NH-Snow-April

Here’s the May graph from “the most authoritative record of Northern Hemisphere snow cover” for good measure:

Rutgers-NH-Snow-May

To summarise, Messrs Booker and Homewood could have confined their due diligence on their assorted Arctic articles to reading my comments on Mr. Heller’s blog. Having done so it would quickly have become apparent to them that every single point they made was in actual fact a “fake fact”.

The inevitable conclusion is that they have no interest whatsoever in establishing the actual facts about the Arctic. All they are interested in is propagating “fake news” about the Arctic as far and as wide as possible in pursuit of a common “agenda”. As is David Rose.

* Since satellite records began.

The 2017 Arctic Sea Ice Maximum Extent

It’s far too early to be sure about this yet, but it’s not beyond the bounds of possibility that the 2017 maximum is already in place. Here’s our favourite high resolution extent graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:

UH-Arctic-Extent-2017-02-21

The current maximum Arctic sea ice extent for 2017 is 13.49 million square kilometers on February 19th. Here’s Arctic sea ice area for good measure:

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-02-21

The current maximum area for 2017 is 12.88 million square kilometers on February 20th. Here also is the NSIDC’s 5 day averaged extent:

charctic-20170221

This reveals a current maximum extent for 2017 of 14.302 million square kilometers on February 20th.

 

[Edit – March 1st]

Here are the high resolution AMSR2 area and extent graphs for the end of February:

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-02-28

UH-Arctic-Extent-2017-02-28

With each day that passes the highs of February 19th/20th look more likely to have been this years maximum. Nonetheless past experience suggests it’s still far to soon to be sure about that.

 

[Edit – March 10th]

Arctic sea ice area and extent are declining again, having reached new heights for the year on March 3rd:

UH-Arctic-Extent-2017-03-09

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-03-09

However the 2013/14 winter showed a late surge is still possible.

 

[Edit – March 18th]

A “late surge” is looking increasingly unlikely. That being the case, here is our provisional long term graph of NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent:

NSIDC-Max-2017

Subject to an unanticipated “surge” the 2017 maximum of 14.447 million square kilometers occurred on March 5th.

JAXA extent has dropped steeply over the last couple of days, and it is now once again “lowest for the date since records began”:

JAXA-Extent-20170317

The 2017 JAXA maximum of 13.878 million square kilometers occurred on March 6th.

In the continuing absence of updates to Cryosphere Today area, here’s the high resolution Arctic sea ice area graph calculated by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg/JAXA AMSR2 data:

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-03-18

The maximum for that particular metric was 13.03 million square kilometers on March 3rd.

Watch this space!

Global Sea Ice Extent Reaches Lowest *Ever Level

Here once again is the up to date version of Wipneus’ graphic graphic, this time of global sea ice extent:

nsidc_global_extent_20170114

As you can see, global sea ice extent has just reached the lowest ever level in the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s satellite records going back to 1979. It was over a month later when the previous record was broken in February 2016, so there is plenty of time for the metric to fall further.

The 2017 curves in the NSIDC’s own extent graphs are coloured in a pale shade of blue. Even so they’re easy to pick out since both Antarctic and Arctic extent are at the lowest level for the date in NSIDC’s records by a considerable margin:

Chantarctic-20170115

Charctic-20170115

Antarctic sea ice extent is still falling, and the Arctic has been flatlining for several days now and more trouble is heading its way. Another Fram Strait cyclone is brewing, and this time around the storm’s minimum central pressure is already down to 957 hPa according to Environment Canada:

Synopsis-20170116-12Z

According to the current forecasts it will continue to spin over the central Arctic for several more days, driving export of sea ice via the Fram Strait:

ACNFS sea ice drift forecast for January 20th 2017
ACNFS sea ice drift forecast for January 20th 2017

* In NSIDC satellite records going back to 1979

December 2016 Arctic Report Card

This is the Great White Con version as opposed to the NOAA version published during the Fall AGU conference earlier this week, although there is some overlap.

Hot off the presses, here’s how Arctic sea ice age has progressed over the last year and a bit:

The 4 and 5 year old ice looks to be edging away from the area north of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago towards the Fram Strait. Here’s the current CryoSat-2 Arctic sea ice thickness map:

cryosat_thk_20161212

Almost no ice over 2 meters thick to be found in the Beaufort sector or anywhere on the Siberian side of the Arctic. Here’s the current AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area graph:

uh-arctic-area-2016-12-15

Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s the NSIDC’s long term trend in November sea ice extent:

monthly_ice_11_nh

Act 1 of a 3 act play according to Don Perovich at AGU. Here’s the current PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume anomaly graph:

piomas-anomaly-201611

Lowest for the date in the satellite record. Here’s NOAA’s Arctic and global surface temperature graph:

arctictemp_map_graph_2015-16_620

Warmest in a record going back to 1900. Here’s the current DMI >80N surface temperature graph:

dmi_meant_20161216

and here’s the current Arctic surface temperature anomaly map:

cci-t2-anomaly-20161217

Finally, for the moment at least, here’s global sea ice area just for good measure:

nsidc_global_area_20161216

 

Need I say more? How about this:

 

Ice has no agenda. It just melts.
Out of the labs and into the streets?

Global Sea Ice At Record Low Levels

NSIDC 5 day averaged Antarctic sea ice extent is now at a record low level for the date, since satellite measurements began in 1979:

chantarctic-20161105

NSIDC 5 day averaged Arctic sea ice extent has been at a record low level for the date for quite a while:

charctic-20161105

Combining those two facts means that global sea ice extent is also at a record low level for the date by a considerable margin. The gap with all previous years in the satellite record is even more stark if you look at global sea ice area:

nsidc_global_area_byyear

The October Arctic sea ice volume numbers from PIOMAS have also just been published:

piomas-trnd3-20161031

By October 31st that metric was also “lowest ever” for the date.

September Arctic Cyclone Alert!

The Central Arctic has of course already been battered by the Great Arctic Cyclone(s) of August 2016. The minimum sea ice extent has been called by the NSIDC, with a slight proviso:

Arctic sea ice appears to have reached its seasonal minimum extent for 2016 on September 10. A relatively rapid loss of sea ice in the first ten days of September has pushed the ice extent to a statistical tie with 2007 for the second lowest in the satellite record. September’s low extent followed a summer characterized by conditions generally unfavorable for sea ice loss.

Please note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

On September 10, Arctic sea ice extent stood at 4.14 million square kilometers (1.60 million square miles).

Now, however, yet another cyclone is raging in the Central Arctic. According to Environment Canada this one is already down to a mean sea level pressure of 975 hPa:

synopsis-20160916-06z

As our regular readers will be well aware, at this time of year strong winds beget large swells. On this occasion it looks as though Barrow will get another battering, as well as the remaining and refreezing sea ice. Here’s the current WaveWatch III significant wave height forecast for September 18th:

significant_height_of_combined_w-in-multi_2-glo_30m-20160916_00064

Such large swells on the surface of the Arctic Ocean don’t only physically break up the sea ice. Last September scientists aboard the University of Alaska’s research icebreaker Sikuliaq observed the effects of a similar storm in the Beaufort Sea. According to Jennifer MacKinnon, Chief Scientist on the ArcticMix voyage:

One of the funny things about the Arctic is that there’s a reservoir of heat beneath the surface here.

So the more the wind is blowing on the ocean, the more it’s mixing this heat upwards. Which is bringing warmer water to the surface at a pretty rapid rate, warming the surface and accelerating the rate at which this ice is melting.

And if storms like this continue, as there’s more open water, more storms mean more exposed surface. It will not only melt the ice in the summer, but delay the onset of fall ice formation and accelerate the onset of spring ice melting.

In October 2015 the Sikuliaq was back in the Beaufort Sea observing the effect of storm swells on refreezing sea ice. Here’s a report from Chief Scientist Jim Thomson:

A strong easterly wind event came through that built large waves — waves that got to almost five meters in height. And the winds were something like up to thirty knots. And these waves were coming into the newly forming ice and making pancake ice.

There was a very warm layer of water 20 meters down beneath the surface. And these waves coming in were enough to drive additional mixing and bring that warm water up from the subsurface and that warm water melted the ice and changed that balance happening at the surface.

As if all that wasn’t already enough to worry about look who’s waiting in the wings. Tropical Storm Ian is heading towards the Arctic Circle at a rate of knots, even as we speak:

ian-track-20160916

 

[Edit – September 17th]

Here is the official Barrow surf forecast from the National Weather Service:

SURF ZONE FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BARROW AK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

AKZ202-171230-
NORTHERN ARCTIC COAST
INCLUDING THE BEACHES OF BARROW…PITT POINT…NULAVIK
0500 AM AKDT SAT SEP 17 2016

.TODAY AND TONIGHT…
.WIND… WESTERLY 20 TO 35 MPH.
.SURF HEIGHT… 2 TO 5 FT.
.SURF TEMP… 36 DEGREES F.
.TIDES… LOW SAT 0826 AM -0.03
HIGH SAT 0230 PM 0.38
LOW SAT 0846 PM -0.02
HIGH SUN 0250 AM 0.38

There is also a severe weather warning in place:

…HIGH SURF ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 AM AKDT MONDAY…

* WAVES AND SURF…WAVES TO 10 FEET BREAKING JUST OFFSHORE COMBINED WITH TIDES UP TO 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL WILL CAUSE HIGH SURF CONDITIONS.

* ICE…WITH ICE JUST OFF SHORE FROM BARROW…IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CHUNKS OF SEA ICE WILL WASH UP ON SHORE EVEN WITH WINDS PREDICTED TO BE AT NEARLY PARALLEL TO THE SHORE.

* WINDS…WEST 20 TO 30 MPH FROM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING.

* TIMING…HIGH SURF IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY MONDAY.

* IMPACTS…HIGH SURF WILL WASH TO THE TOP OF THE BEACH AND CAUSE BEACH EROSION. MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS POSSIBLE AND SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS…

A HIGH SURF ADVISORY MEANS THAT LOCALIZED BEACH EROSION IS EXPECTED. SURF COULD WASH ONTO LOW LYING ROADS NEAR THE BEACH LIMITING TRAVEL NEAR THE BEACH. PEOPLE SHOULD MOVE BOATS AND PERSONAL PROPERTY INLAND FROM THE BEACH.

 

[Edit – September 19th]

Somewhat belatedly, before:

barrowcam_20160917_184400

and after:

barrowcam_20160918_212400

the storm images from the Barrow webcam, which has just burst back into life. Plus an image of the cyclone from on high:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite

The 2016 Arctic Sea Ice Metric Minima

September 2016 is here at last! I posed this question at the start of the recent “Great Arctic Cyclone“:

I wonder what the minimum for 2016 will be, and on what date?

I’m still wondering, and the answer does of course depend on which Arctic sea ice metric you happen to be looking at. Here’s a few examples to be going on with. Firstly there’s Tony Heller’s extent metric du jour, from the University of Bremen:

extent_n_running_mean_amsr2_regular_20160902

and then there’s (one of) his previous one(s), from the Danish Meteorological Institute:

osisaf_nh_iceextent_daily_5years_20160901

Amongst the “industry standards” Cryosphere Today area is missing in action so here’s the National Snow & Ice Data Center’s 5 day average extent:

charctic-20160901

and JAXA extent:

JAXA_Extent_20160901

Finally here are “Snow White’s” favourite high resolution AMSR2 metrics derived by “Wipneus” from University of Hamburg AMSR2 concentration data:

UH-Arctic-Area-2016-08-31

UH-Arctic-Extent-2016-08-31

Are there any other suggestions for numbers to keep a close eye on over the next few weeks?

 

[Edit – September 3rd]

Arctic sea ice volume, as modelled by PIOMAS, has been updated to August 2016:

piomas-201608

It’s currently 3rd lowest for the month, just a whisker behind 2011. Here’s the PIOMAS gridded data for August 31st 2016:

PIOMAS-20160831

and for comparison purposes here’s the high res AMSR2 concentration map for the same date:

Arc_20160831_res3.125

As suggested by Bill, here too are the Arctic Regional Ocean Observing System numbers. Much like the high res AMSR2 data they allow comparison between area and extent from the same sensor/algo combination, in this case SSMIS/NORSEX on a 25 km grid:

NORSEX-area-20160901

NORSEX-extent-20160901

Both sources agree that currently the remaining ice is less compact in 2016 than it was in 2012.

 

[Edit – September 4th]

An interesting inter-metric comparison from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:

 

[Edit – September 5th]

Here’s another twist on the University of Hamburg’s AMSR2 extent, courtesy of Lars Kaleschke:

UH-AMSR2-20160904

 

[Edit – September 11th]

Several of the metrics displayed above have increased over the last day or two. The 2016 minimum may be upon us, but another few days will have to go by before that’s finally confirmed. Whilst we wait here’s another metric to consider, as described on “Tamino’s” Open Mind blog:

A plot of annual average extent also clearly shows the decline, and includes data from throughout the year rather than just the annual minimum. The figure for 2016 is the lowest on record, but the year isn’t done yet. If instead of averaging January-through-December we do September-through-August (to make the final year complete), we find that the most recent year is still the lowest on record:

taminoannualanomaly-aug-2016

Any way you look at it, Arctic sea ice is in decline. If you look at the entire year rather than just the annual minimum, the record year is this one.

 

[Edit – September 14th]

The refreeze has certainly started now. A quick look through the metrics. First of all the Hamburg University high resolution AMSR2 matched set:

uh-arctic-area-2016-09-13

uh-arctic-extent-2016-09-13

Area just squeezed under 3 million km². Next up is JAXA extent:

jaxa_extent_20160913

which just failed to fall below 4 million km². Last but not least, just for the moment, is the NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent:

charctic-20160912

The most striking this year is the unusually large gap between area and extent for this time of year, illustrated by this “compactness” graph from Arctische Pinguin:

amsr2-compact-20160913

Note too the striking difference between different sensor/algo combinations for this metric!

 

[Edit – September 15th]

With the minimum now beyond doubt, here’s a new graphic from Lars Kaleschke of the University of Hamburg:

uh-min-temp

Need I say more?

 

[Edit – September 20th]

The September cyclone has now done its worst:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on September 18th 2016, derived from the VIIRS sensor on the Suomi satellite

Leaving the area and extent metrics with an intriguing “double dip”:

uh-arctic-area-2016-09-20

uh-arctic-extent-2016-09-20

 

2016 Minimum Milestones

September 3rd – JAXA extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.05 million km²

September 7th – JAXA extent minimum of 4.02 million km²

September 8th – NSIDC single day extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.083 million km². This proved to the minimum value for the year as a whole.

September 9th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent dropped to 2nd place below the 2007 minimum at 4.146 million km²

September 10th – NSIDC 5 day trailing averaged extent minimum of 4.137 million km²