Tag Archives: Extent

Broadcasting House’s Million Square Kilometre Blunder

It has just been brought to my attention that the topic of Arctic sea ice was raised by Angela Rippon on the edition of “Broadcasting House” that aired on BBC Radio 4 on the morning of Sunday September 29th. In her review of that Sunday’s papers Angela had the following to say:

Them:

Tucked away at the bottom of a page in the Mail on Sunday is a piece saying that “The Arctic ice experts have made a million kilometer blunder“, and this is again using computers, and apparently the official source of information on polar ice caps have got it’s figures for the recovery of the Arctic cap wrong by a million square miles, and they say that this was actually a typo, it was a typographical error, and there are no plans to make a statement on the change because it was just an error in the data. So what data CAN we believe?

Us:

Obviously that’s my own transcript rather than an official one from the BBC. By all means listen to the programme yourself, and let me know if I’ve inadvertently got something wrong. According to the BBC’s “BH” page it will be available for download there for another 25 days.

Now obviously as soon as I’ve finished writing this article I’m going to amble over to the BBC web site to lodge a formal complaint, in which I shall suggest that Angela and the BBC’s “BH” team read this website from cover to cover, starting with this very article.

As a preliminary answer to Angela’s final question I would like to suggest:

Certainly not the Mail on Sunday’s, and not the British Broadcasting Corporation’s either, unless they correct this particular blunder quicker than you can say “Global COOLING!” whilst simultaneously sipping a piña colada by the side of Santa’s super new low albedo summer swimming pool!

Will The Telegraph Print the Truth in the Cold Light of Day?

I just received an emailed letter from the Telegraph’s Head of News, part of which reads as follows:

The Telegraph has looked into the matters you raise. As far as the points concerning ice extent are concerned, the incorrect information was derived from data published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC). The mistaken information was due to a typographical error, which the NSIDC only corrected after the article that incorporated it was published. We have since updated the online versions of the article and explained why this was necessary.

There is no mention in the letter of any “updates” or “corrections” being put into print. The Telegraph are thus telling much the same story as the Mail, which is of course wholly unsatisfactory when it comes to correcting the long list of “inaccuracies and misrepresentations” they have recently published regarding the sorry state of sea ice in the Arctic. This is how they’ve done it:

Them:

Hayley Dixon’s article entitled “Global warming? No, actually we’re cooling, claim scientists” from September 8th now starts as follows:

There has been a 29 per cent increase in the amount of ocean covered with ice compared to this time last year, the equivalent of 533,000 square miles.

In a rebound from 2012’s record low, an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores, days before the annual re-freeze is even set to begin.

The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific had remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.

One ship has now managed to pass through, completing its journey on September 27.

with the following additional “explanation” at the end:

Update: As at the date the article was first posted it relied on information about ice extent from the Nasa-funded National Snow and Ice Data Centre (NSIDC). This information contained a typographical error which the NSIDC subsequently corrected. The article has been amended in line with the correct information.

In addition, we have amended our reference to the Northwest Passage following the successful traverse, completed on September 27 after our article was published, of the Danish bulk carrier Nordic Orion.

Us:

Should The Telegraph’s Head of News be interested in some slightly stale Northwest Passage news, here’s a picture published on econnexus.org on September 4th in an article linked to below, which takes a close look at the “pack ice” supposedly “blocking the North West Passage” on that date:

Sea ice concentration in the Northwest Passage on September 4th 2013, according to AMSR2
Sea ice concentration in the Northwest Passage on September 4th 2013, according to AMSR2

Them:

Geoffrey Lean’s article entitled “Global warming: Will the truth brave the cold light of day?” from September 13th now carries the following “explanation” at the bottom:

Update: After this article was published, a bulk carrier – the MV Nordic Orion – was able to pass through the Northwest Passage on its way from Vancouver to Finland.

Christopher Booker’s article entitled “The ice is not melting, yet still the scaremongers blunder on” from September 21st appears to be completely unmodified.

Us:

Here’s some extracts from my own (repeated) email to The Telegraph, to which they have also failed to respond satisfactorily (in my humble opinion!):

a) “An unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe already stretches from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores,”

Inaccurate – See: https://greatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/an-unbroken-ice-sheet/ for plenty of visual evidence of that.

b) “The Northwest Passage from the Atlantic to the Pacific has remained blocked by pack-ice all year, forcing some ships to change their routes.”

Inaccurate – See: http://econnexus.org/the-northwest-passage-in-2013/

c) “That has been enough to make a mockery of a much-publicised prediction, six years ago, by Prof Wieslaw Maslowski, of the Naval Postgraduate School in Monterey, California, that the Arctic would be entirely ice-free by 2013”

Inaccurate – See (and hear) https://greatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/shock-news-why-isnt-the-arctic-ice-free/ for visual and aural evidence of that.

d) “The ice is not melting, yet still the scaremongers blunder on”

Inaccurate – The ice is melting. See Geoffrey Lean’s article!

I can see that this particular story is going to run and run!

60 Per Cent of Nothing?

Our title today is an allusion to Bill Bruford’s “Five Percent For Nothing”, from the 1971 album “Fragile” by Yes. Here’s what the cover looks like:

Fragile cover art, by Roger Dean (image Wikipedia)

Them:

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

Us:

According to the NSIDC once again the numbers look like this:

NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent chart, highlighting September 7th 2013
NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent chart, highlighting September 7th 2013

The sums are obviously rather tricky, so we’ve enlisted the aid of a spreadsheet. Here’s what it reveals to us:

Metric Date 2012 2013 Increase
NSIDC Daily Extent (million km²) Day 249 3.558 5.236 47.2%
NSIDC Daily Extent (million km²) Sep 8th 3.523 5.179 47.0%
NSIDC Daily Extent (million km²) Aug 27th 3.94 5.632 42.9%
NSIDC Daily Extent (million km²) Aug 15th 4.845 6.159 27.1%
NSIDC Monthly Extent (million km²) August 4.71 6.09 29.3%

Verdict:

Whichever way you look at things, on a “same time last year” basis at least, the magic number of 60% seems to be out of reach. Whatever the arithmetic David Rose actually performed, whether mentally or on his pocket calculator, it would appear not to involve comparing like with like. We have asked David and the Mail on a number of occasions what numbers he started from and what calculations he performed. We have received no answers as yet.

Getting back to our title, when you start to look at Arctic sea ice volume instead of extent, 160% of almost nothing is still almost nothing:

Video courtesy of Andy Lee Robinson

Small print: We have yet to double check all the numbers in our simple spreadsheet. The NSIDC web site is still down today.

A Million Square Miles?

Let’s start at the very beginning. A very good place to start!

Them:

A chilly Arctic summer has left nearly a million more square miles of ocean covered with ice than at the same time last year – an increase of 60 per cent.

Us:

NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News report for August 2012
NSIDC Arctic Sea Ice News report for August 2013

Verdict:

The Mail et. al. say “Nearly a million square miles”. When the floods in Boulder have receded the NSIDC will once again say “Just over half a million square miles”. Is that discrepancy sufficient to satisfy the Press Complaints Commission’s definition of “inaccurate, misleading or distorted information”?