Tag Archives: NSIDC

The United States’ National Snow and Ice Data Center

Mark Serreze and the Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral

Extent, , , , , , , , ,

Anthony Watts has been telling porky pies again. He claims his blog is “The world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change”, which may or may not be true. However Anthony published an article earlier today entitled “NSIDC Mark Serreze’s sea ice ‘death spiral’ no longer ‘screaming’ on the way down, now termed to be ‘erratic & bumpy’“, which most certainly contains an inaccuracy or two.

Here’s how Anthony introduces his “argument”:

From the University of Colorado at Boulder, where they are apparently attempting to explain away why Arctic sea ice isn’t living up to previous wild claims such as those made by Dr. Mark Serreze of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, who famously said that the Arctic is in a ‘Death Spiral’ in response to my writing on WUWT:

Exclusive: New NSIDC director Serreze explains the “death spiral” of Arctic ice, brushes off the “breathtaking ignorance” of blogs like WattsUpWithThat

Hence we are proud to be able to bring you this exclusive report on the “breathtaking ignorance” of the WattsUpWithThat blog! I’ve recently been publicly castigated on Twitter for our tongue in cheek “Us and Them” exposes:

I remain unrepentant, but just for once I’ll maintain a more conventional narrative. Anthony Watts continues his argument as follows:

Serreze also famously said two years earlier that “The Arctic is screaming,” and that summer sea ice may be gone in five years, in an interview with the unquestioning and compliant Seth Borenstein at the Associated Press:

He helpfully highlights in yellow what Seth Borenstein said Mark Serreze said way back when in 2007. Note that no “predictions” or even “projections” are mentioned. So where do you suppose Tony’s “summer sea ice may be gone in five years” came from?

Here we provide our own screenshot of the National Geographic article in question, grabbing a slightly larger area of the screen, and highlighting a section slightly further down the page:

Selection_387

For those who have difficulty reading small print, such as Anthony Watts and his merry band of unquestioning and compliant followers over at WUWT, here is the unexpurgated transcript of our highlight in large letters:

NASA climate scientist Jay Zwally said: “At this rate, the Arctic Ocean could be nearly ice-free at the end of summer by 2012, much faster than previous predictions.”

Note firstly that this is a projection rather than a prediction, and secondly that it was reportedly uttered by Jay Zwally of NASA, not Mark Serreze of NSIDC!

Quod erat demonstrandum, and if so one cannot help but wonder how many similar blunders Mr. Watts has made over the course of his illustrious publishing career?

As luck would have it I interviewed Mark Serreze, who is currently director of the NSIDC, not so very long ago. I enquired whether the “Death spiral” story was apocryphal or not. Mark told me he did recall saying something along those lines to a journalist, but that he couldn’t recall the exact circumstances. I also asked if he was willing to make any “predictions” about the decline of sea ice in the Arctic. Mark told me that he still stood by his 2030 estimate for the onset of a seasonally ice free Arctic, although:

Most models say more like 2050

Doing my own due diligence (unlike the readers of Watts Up With That!) the earliest reference I could find to such a “prediction” involved a telephone interview much like the one I had just conducted. In an article dated August 27th 2008 the Reuters environment correspondent reported that:

This year’s Arctic ice melt could surpass the extraordinary 2007 record low in the coming weeks. Last year’s minimum ice level was reached on September 16, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Even if no records are broken this year, the downward trend in summer sea ice in the Arctic continues, the Colorado-based center said. Last year’s record was blamed squarely on human-spurred climate change.

“No matter where we stand at the end of the melt season it’s just reinforcing this notion that Arctic ice is in its death spiral,” said Mark Serreze, a scientist at the center. The Arctic could be free of summer ice by 2030, Serreze said by telephone.

So there you have it. Unless someone can come up with some evidence to the contrary (unlike Watts and the Watties), it looks to me like Mark Serreze has been consistently saying for many years:

The Arctic could be free of summer ice by 2030

or words to that effect. Expect more from me on my interview with Mark Serreze in due course.

 
[Edit – February 1st]

Without a word of thanks to yours truly Anthony Watts has now published an “Update” to his original article. The salient bits read as follows:

The original article implied that NISDC’s Mark Serreze made the statement about sea ice being gone in 5 years, ending in 2012, when it was actually NASA’s Jay Zwally that made the claim in the National Geographic article. The language has been clarified in the paragraph to reflect this.

The offending paragraph now reads:

Serreze also famously said two years earlier that “The Arctic is screaming,” and a Arctic research associate, Jay Zwally of NASA, said in the same article that summer sea ice may be gone in five years, in an interview with the unquestioning and compliant Seth Borenstein at the Associated Press.

Anthony obviously hasn’t taken on board my helpful remarks about the difference between a prediction and a projection, and hence he waxes lyrical about how the sea ice in the Arctic didn’t vanish in the summer of 2012. He signs off by saying:

To my knowledge, Dr. Serreze has never publicly corrected the National Geographic article claim of 2012 being the ice-free year that wasn’t, suggesting he endorsed the idea at the time.

Have I got news for you Anthony. It doesn’t suggest anything of the kind! In addition to suggesting strange things to the suggestible Mr. Watts has so far neglected to answer this question posed by a commenter on the article in question:

I look forward to seeing any substantive replies to Jim Hunt’s clarifying post.

and so far he has also neglected to publish my response to that question. It included this video of my namesake, James Hunt, conversing with a couple of clueless mechanics:

Anthony Watts has also thus far neglected to explain how he inexplicably (in all the circumstances) successfully attributed the supposed 2012 “prediction” to Jay Zwally in this 2012 article, that also included a highlighted screenshot much like mine above:

In four months, just 132 days from now at the end of summer on the Autumnal Equinox September 22nd 2012, the Arctic will be “nearly ice free” according to a prominent NASA scientist in a National Geographic article on December 12, 2007.

Quod Erat Demonstrandum?

“There’s no answer to that”!

[/Edit]

Implausible Deniability of 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Predictions

Extent, , , , , , , ,

Further to the cessation of the brief hiatus in my continuing discussions with “Steve Goddard” about “global warming”, the debate has turned to predictions concerning Arctic sea ice metrics during the 2014 melting season.

Firstly here’s a few charts of assorted Arctic sea ice metrics, hot off the virtual presses:

CT-Area-2015-01-18
Chart from Cryosphere Today – http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
IJIS-Extent-2015-01-18
Chart from IJIS – http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
DMI-New-2015-01-19
Chart from DMI – http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
DMI-Old-2015-01-19
Chart from DMI – http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Here’s a table of the minimum value of some of those metrics for a selection of years:

Metric 2006 2013 2014
NSIDC daily 15% extent 5.74877 5.077090 4.98339
CT area 4.02978 3.55440 3.48317
IJIS extent 5.62505 4.80929 4.88412

 

Now here’s one of Steve/Tony’s predictions, in this case from August 1st 2014:

The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum, which was the highest minimum of the past decade.

And finally here’s the “discussion” (such as it is) over at the “Real Science” blog:
 

Us:

That’s not really how things turned out, is it?

 

Them:

That is exactly how it turned out.

Do you believe it was ice-free as Nobel Prize winner Al Gore predicted?

 

Us:

Perhaps this chart is clearer?

NSIDC-Extent-2015-01-18
Chart from NSIDC – http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

How do you define “exactly”, “likely” and “close”?

Regarding my views on Al Gore’s so called predictions, see:

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2014/09/david-roses-apocalyptic-vision-of-al-gores-nobel-lecture/

In brief “Al Gore never ‘predicted’ that the Arctic would be ice-free by now!”

 

Them:

Well, he didn’t say ’22 years from now’, did he? No, he emphasized the most alarmist position he could find.

You can weasel out of this by stating that Gore did not make the prediction ,but he sure as Hell quoted and emphasized it, over any and all other predictions. And in front of the Nobel committee and entire world at that!

So have you confronted Gore over the failed prediction he parroted in Oslo? When you do, you will have a modicum of credibility. Get busy.

 

Us:

At the risk of repeating myself, “for the benefit of those who seem unable to understand either English or Mathematics a ‘projection’ is not the same thing as a ‘prediction’”

Getting back to Tony’s predictions, and using the NSIDC daily extent numbers for the moment, would you say that 4.98339 is “exactly” 5.74877? How about “close”?

 

Them:

Actually, no, your chart is less clear. Steve’s has all the years and it is clear his prediction is correct. Yours does not. Nor does yours have a legible legend. Another snow white lie.

 

Us:

Have you by any chance tried clicking on my chart? Does that help at all?

At the risk of repeating myself, would you say that 4.98339 is “exactly” 5.74877? How about “close”?

 

Them:

What bearing does 2013’s minimum have on goddard’s prediction for 2014? Are you a half-wit in addition to being a mentally ill stalker & transvestite?

 

Us:

What bearing does 2014’s maximum have on 2014’s minimum?

Are you blind?

 

Them:

You seem to think that some random number you came up with has some bearing on the subject at hand. Hint: it’s why we think you’re mentally ill.

 

Us:

Of course they’re not random numbers. To save you the bother of doing your own research please feel free to take a look at:

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2015/01/implausible-deniability-of-2014-arctic-sea-ice-predictions/#Table

 

Them:

Stark, it’s not about random numbers, it’s about random harassment. This clown takes no issue with ridiculous ‘projections’ delivered by alarmist zealots on a world stage, instead he haunts this site moaning about near misses.

But you are right about the mentally ill bit.

 

Us:

The conversation about the non-random Arctic numbers has at last taken a statistical turn over at:

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/arctic-sea-ice-extent-continues-near-a-decadal-high/#comment-483567

I note that you are still dodging the question there too.

 

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Mark Serreze and the Arctic Sea Ice Death Spiral

Extent, , , , , , ,

In his article about Arctic sea ice in the Mail on Sunday three days ago David Rose pointed out that:

The most widely used measurements of Arctic ice extent are the daily satellite readings issued by the US National Snow and Ice Data Center, which is co-funded by NASA.

He also stated that:

For years, many have been claiming that the Arctic is in an ‘irrevocable death spiral’, with imminent ice-free summers bound to trigger further disasters. These include gigantic releases of methane into the atmosphere from frozen Arctic deposits, and accelerated global warming caused by the fact that heat from the sun will no longer be reflected back by the ice into space.

Judith Curry, professor of earth and atmospheric sciences at Georgia Institute of Technology in Atlanta, said last night: ‘The Arctic sea ice spiral of death seems to have reversed.’

All of which got me thinking. Why did David Rose speak to a professor of earth and atmospheric sciences when researching his article, rather than an expert on Arctic sea ice? Why, indeed, did he not speak to the man who originally coined the “Death spiral” metaphor? Seeking answers to these troubling questions amongst others, I called the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Boulder, Colorado. I enquired whether I might be able to speak with Mark Serreze,  who is currently director of the NSIDC. Shortly after that Mark called me back and I was able to ask him a number of questions.

My first question was whether David Rose or anyone from the Mail on Sunday had been in touch with the NSIDC recently. The answer was “No”. Next I enquired whether the “Death spiral” story was apocryphal or not. Mark told me he did recall saying something along those lines, but that he couldn’t recall the exact circumstances. Doing my own due diligence (unlike the Mail!) the earliest reference I could find suggested that “the circumstances” involved a telephone interview much like the one I was in the middle of. In an article dated August 27th 2008 the Reuters environment correspondent reported that:

This year’s Arctic ice melt could surpass the extraordinary 2007 record low in the coming weeks. Last year’s minimum ice level was reached on September 16, according to the National Snow and Ice Data Center.

Even if no records are broken this year, the downward trend in summer sea ice in the Arctic continues, the Colorado-based center said. Last year’s record was blamed squarely on human-spurred climate change.

“No matter where we stand at the end of the melt season it’s just reinforcing this notion that Arctic ice is in its death spiral,” said Mark Serreze, a scientist at the center. The Arctic could be free of summer ice by 2030, Serreze said by telephone.

Mark confirmed to me that he still stood by his 2030 estimate for the onset of a seasonally ice free Arctic, although “most models say more like 2050”.

Next I asked him whether he agreed that “The Arctic sea ice spiral of death has reversed.” He said that he agreed with the statement attributed to Dr. Ed Hawkins near the end of the Mail article, that “There is undoubtedly some natural variability on top of the long-term downwards trend caused by the overall warming“. However 2 years worth of data certainly didn’t constitute “a recovery”. It was more like “a one week retracement in the US stock market. The long term trend in extent is definitely downwards”.

In conclusion I asked Mark to offer his best estimate for Arctic sea ice extent at this summer’s minimum. He told me that even at this late stage some of that “natural variability” could affect the outcome, but that the NSIDC extent “will probably end up on a par with 2013”.

I have also had an email conversation with Andrew Shepherd, the British “expert in climate satellite monitoring” whose views about Arctic sea ice were reported in the Mail on Sunday’s article. He told me that:

Arctic sea ice cover is expected to continue to decline, with the possibility of ice-free summers in the next 20-30 years. Climate model predictions tend to be at the upper end of this range, whereas projections of past observations tend to be at the lower end. Once we are able to include direct measurements of thickness from CryoSat-2, I expect the accuracy of predictions will improve.

If nothing else changes, then the recovery in Arctic sea ice thickness will wind the clock backwards a few years, but there is no reason to believe this is anything other than a temporary reprieve due to one cool summer.

Finally, for the moment at least, I also called the Danish Meteorological Institute. Along with the NSIDC their Arctic sea ice extent figures were quoted by David Rose. Along with the NSIDC they told me that they had received no enquiries recently from Mr. Rose or anyone else at the Mail on Sunday.

Santa’s Secret Summer Swimming Pool Revisited

Concentration, , , , ,

Regular readers may recall that way back when in September 2013 we wondered why David Rose hadn’t seen fit to reproduce any visualisations of Arctic sea ice concentration in a previous article about Arctic sea ice, particularly when his source materials from the NSIDC contained some very nice examples.

Today we are pleased to be able to inform you that David has now followed our long standing advice, and his article in the Mail on Sunday  yesterday included two such “stunning satellite images”. Of course they are not really “photographic” images, any more than the visualisations of Arctic sea ice extent that David was so keen to show his loyal readers last time around were. Unfortunately David neglected to include a “stunning satellite concentration visualisation” for August 25th 2013 in yesterday’s article. We are pleased to be able to help correct that no doubt inadvertent oversight, albeit somewhat belatedly, with the able assistance of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences at the University of Illinois and their Cryosphere Today web site:

Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice concentration on August 25th 2013
Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice concentration on August 25th 2013

Paraphrasing David Rose’s article yesterday, can you see all the yellow and green areas denoting regions where the ice pack is least dense?

Can you see “an unbroken ice sheet more than half the size of Europe stretch[ing] from the Canadian islands to Russia’s northern shores”?

Can you see Santa’s secret summer swimming pool, just a short sleigh ride away from his natty North Pole residence?

Answers on a virtual post card please, to the address below.

Does Tony Heller Need To Be Prosecuted?

Extent, , , , , , , , ,

In some recent shock news over at the “Real Science” blog “Steven Goddard” asked “Who is Steven Goddard” and then answered himself as follows:

My name is Tony Heller. I am a whistle blower. I am an independent thinker who is considered a heretic by the orthodoxy on both sides of the climate debate.

I’m highly unorthodox, so I’ll consider him as a schizoidal cherry picking pseudo-skeptic instead. Steve/Tony finishes his “coming out” article as follows:

I am more than happy to debate anyone who feels up to the challenge, including the President of The United States. Science works through research and debate – not censorship, propaganda, faith, or intimidation.

Steve/Tony has been blogging about Arctic sea ice again recently. His most recent post is entitled “Does The Arctic Need To Be Prosecuted?“, but it seems he’s unwilling to engage in debate about that topic with me.

Them:

Some climate experts want to make skepticism of junk science a felony, and every day it becomes more clear that the Arctic has no respect for climate models or eminent government scientists. This is shocking, and it is time for the Arctic to be prosecuted. The Arctic is aiding and abetting climate deniers, as well as making obscene gestures towards the world’s leading academics.

DMI "new" Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

DMI “new” Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

 

Us:

Needless to say Steve/Tony has yet to approve my comment on his ruminations, which reads as follows:

2014-07-26_1314_RealScienceThis is what the Cryosphere Today graph of Arctic sea ice area I linked to looks like at the moment:

Cryosphere Today interactive Arctic sea ice area graph on July 26th 2014
Cryosphere Today interactive Arctic sea ice area graph on July 26th 2014

This is what the NORSEX extent chart that Eliza linked to looks like this morning:

NORSEX SSM/I Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014
NORSEX SSM/I Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

Here’s another one for good measure, this time showing NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent:

NSIDC interactive Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014
NSIDC interactive Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

As far as I am aware there is no law against being a schizoidal cherry picking pseudo-skeptic in the United States of America, or anywhere else for that matter. Please feel free to comment below if you know otherwise and/or think that there should be!

 

Them:

After a protracted exchange on Twitter a copy of my comment eventually saw the light of day:

 

Us:

We’ll keep you posted!

 

What’s Up With Watts Moderation? Episode 1

Censorship, , ,

We proudly present some “Shock News” concerning a disappearing comment of ours on the “Watts Up With That” blog.

According to the April 2014 edition of the NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice News:

The percentage of the Arctic Ocean consisting of ice at least five years or older remains at only 7%, half of what it was in February 2007. Moreover, a large area of the multiyear ice has drifted to the southern Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea (north of Alaska and the Lena River delta), where warm conditions are likely to exist later in the year.

We thought we’d point out to any interested WUWTers that actually warm conditions have existed in the southern Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea for quite some time now. However it appears as if the powers that be in WattsLand had other ideas:

Them:

Caleb says:
April 3, 2014 at 7:06 pm

RE: Tom in Denver says:
April 3, 2014 at 9:12 am

I think we need to pay less attention to 2 meter surface temperatures, and more attention to the temperature of the sea. Any time a polynya forms the sea is getting severely cooled by churning winds. Also the ice that has been moved south is going somewhere. In the case of Baffin Bay it was surging south right along the coast of Labrador and out into the Atlantic, creating above-average ice-extents in an area adjacent to the Gulf Stream.

Us:

A comment by "Snow White" visible on the "Watts Up With That" blog on April 3rd 2014

 

Surface air temperature anomaly plot for January to March 2014
Surface air temperature anomaly plot for January to March 2014

 

Them:

As of April 5th 2014 at 13:27:41 BST:

A comment by "Snow White" now invisible on the "Watts Up With That" blog on April 5th 2014
A comment by “Snow White” now invisible on the “Watts Up With That” blog on April 5th 2014

Us:

A comment by "Snow White" visible on the "Watts Up With That" blog at 16:43 BST on April 5th 2014

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Watts Up With the Maximum Trend?

Extent, , ,

The self proclaimed “world’s most viewed site on global warming and climate change”, otherwise known as the “Watts Up With That?” blog, recently published an article entitled “Arctic Sea Ice Appears to Have Reached Maximum And Other Ice Observations”. Since I’ve been speculating about the date of the 2014 maximum Arctic sea ice extent myself I avidly read the article but found myself ultimately somewhat perplexed. There were lots of graphs and charts displayed, but there was no sight or mention of what seems to me the most relevant one of all. The long term trend. Here is an expurgated version of my attempts to bring this oversight to the attention of the Watts Up With Thatters:

Us:

A "dull" comment about Arctic sea ice trends
A “dull” comment about Arctic sea ice trends

Them:

Re: Michael Jennings says:
March 26, 2014 at 7:07 am

[snip . . this is dull. Put some content into your contributions or you are just trolling . . mod]

Us:

At the risk of repeating myself, here’s the latest dull content out of NSIDC:

Do you see the blue line heading for the bottom right?

[snip.. lots of dull references to Antarctic sea ice and “Real Science” removed.. mod]

Them:

Snow White needs to get up to speed on the Scientific Method: skeptics have nothing to prove.

Rather, the onus is on the alarmist crowd to provide scientific evidence showing that their CO2/cAGW conjecture is true. They have failed miserably.

But there is no scientific evidence supporting their belief in manmade global warming. None at all. Every last climate model has failed. They were all wrong.

The alarmist crowd is fixated on Arctic ice, instead of on global ice cover. Why? Because that is their last forlorn hope; every other climate scare has been debunked. Well, it’s time to debunk the ‘disappearing Arctic ice’ scare, too:

Global sea ice is at it’s 30-year average [the red graph – click in chart to embiggen]. We already know about the polar see-saw, in which the NH and SH poles balance each other out. That effect can be clearly seen in the global ice chart above.

There is nothing either unusual or unprecedented happening. What we observe now has happened before, repeatedly, and to a much greater degree. Rational folks understand that. It is called the climate Null Hypothesis, and it has never been falsified. The Null Hypothesis is a corollary of the Scientific Method. So is the fact that the onus is on those who produce the catastrophic CO2/AGW conjecture, to suport their belief with scientific evidence.

But there is no evidence proving that Arctic ice is in unprecedented decline. None at all. There is no evidence to prove that the current Arctic ice fluctuation is anything other than natural climate variability. Occam’s Razor says that natural variability is by far the most likely explanation.

The Arctic ice scare is just the same as all the other climate scares. It is promoted by religious True Believers, who expect everyone to share in their Chicken Little panic.

But that only works on those who are ruled by emotion, and fright is an emotion. Scientific skeptics, OTOH, are logical, and therefore they are unaffected by the silly ‘Arctic ice’ scare.

Us:

So to summarise, you cannot muster a single chart to refute my assertion about Arctic sea ice decline, let alone “hundreds”.

For your edification, and for that of the writer of the original article who for some strange reason neglected to include a graph showing the long term trend in Arctic sea ice maximum extent, here is one I prepared earlier:

Provisional NSIDC annual maximum extent graph for 1979 – 2014
Provisional NSIDC annual maximum Arctic sea ice extent graph for 1979 – 2014

Them:

From a comment on a different thread on WUWT, on April 10, 2014 at 3:33 am (WUWT time)

I’m sorry Snow White (or Mr Hunt, if you prefer), but I think that a little courtesy would be in order. I’ve read every word on the link you’ve provided, and the central theme of your original post was that “there was no sight or mention of what seems to me the most relevant one of all. The long term trend [of Arctic sea ice]“. You described more than one attempt to bring this deficit to the attention of WUWT.

Given that Michael D posted on your page at April 9, 2014 at 4:01 pm, politely pointing out that the WUWT sea ice page has just such data presented, it would seem a basic courtesy to either acknowledge his assistance (in this blog or yours) and either thank him, or explain why graph does not answer your criticisms.

I acknowledge that your arguments seem to have moved on to volume now, but they have been addressed by others, and better than I could have done. As an aside, I suppose I could run a blog with limited data about Antarctic sea ice coverage and volumes. I’m sure that I would be criticised, with comments explaining that I was looking at the mural through a microscope, and that the Antarctic buildup cannot be considered in isolation. I think that such criticism would be valid – your thoughts?

Us:

As you can see from the historical record, I asked on more than one occasion for someone to supply a link to “A long term (let’s say 30 years or more) graph for any measure of Arctic sea ice “quantity” showing anything other than a trend in the direction of the bottom right hand corner.” Nobody did. Nobody suggested looking at the WUWT sea ice page either, presumably because no graphs fitting my description can be found on there.

Q.E.D. ?

Them:

 We’ll keep you posted!

A Conversation With David Rose

Satire, , , , , , ,

Perhaps “conversation” is somewhat too strong a word? We have somehow managed to engage the Mail on Sunday’s top investigative journalist (AKA David Rose) in a debate about sea ice on Twitter. For some strange reason he tried to change the topic from the Arctic to the Antarctic!

Us:

Them:

 

Us:

Meanwhile we gatecrashed another debate that David Rose was gatecrashing, about a topic we have some experience with.

Them:

Us:


We’ll keep you posted!

Some Sceptical Questions

Psychology, , , , , ,

With the able assistance of some of the regular readers of Steve Goddard’s so called “Real Science” blog I have drawn up a checklist of questions to answer should you (or any “sceptics” you may be aware of) be suffering from the delusion that the sea ice in the Arctic is “recovering” or “rebounding”:

Us:

1. Is the NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

2. Is the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

3. Is the IJIS Arctic sea ice extent number for March 9th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

4. What credible evidence can you provide to show that “The Arctic is getting colder”?

5. In what way has the NSIDC’s data been “contaminated by Mann”?

6. Where might one find “empirical data that hasn’t been contaminated” if not from the likes of NOAA/NASA/JAXA et. al.

7. How do you define “The Arctic”? [2014-3-12 16:53]

8. How much sea ice do you suppose will be left in the Gulf of St. Lawrence by September? [2014-3-12 20:26]

9. Which version of “the [thickness/volume] truth” do you choose to believe? [2014-3-14 09:30]

10. When was it that the DMI “changed the way they read/interrupt coastal features [which] they incorporated into their extent/area numbers”? [2014-3-15 15:08]

11. Why have we been accused of “a lie” and “put on ignore”? [2014-3-16 15:12]

12. Please be so good as to provide us with a link that describes “the modeling used by NSIDC to ‘create’ these numbers” [2014-3-20 13:00]

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

No reply to any seven eight nine ten eleven of those questions as yet.

Them:

In answer to question 7 Steve Goddard “says”

NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014
NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014

Then a “Real Scientist” asks a sensible question:

Do NSIDC and DMI define the Arctic differently? If so, by how much?

Us:

We say:

1. Yes Dave.

2. Here’s a clue:

OSI Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014
OSI-SAF Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014

We’ll keep you posted!

New Mail for The Mail

Satire, , , , , , , , , ,

Now seems like an entirely appropriate time to bring the latest “Shock News!” from the Arctic to the attention of the “mass media” here in once Great Britain. Here’s a copy of an email I sent to John Wellington over at The Mail earlier today:

Us:

Re: PCC – Global cooling in an ideal world

Hello again John,

Further to our previous correspondence on this controversial topic here is the latest “shock news” from the Arctic, hot off the presses down here at Ivory Towers:

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/the-arctic-sea-ice-recovery-vanishes/

In view of the recent inclement weather in this neck of the woods, perhaps you could forward it on to one of your finest investigative reporters for me?

Best wishes,

Jim Hunt

Them:

It’s now March 15th 2014, and this morning I received a “Dear Jim” note from John:

Dear Jim,

Nice to hear from you and I trust you were not hit by the West Country floods, climate-influenced or not.

I have discussed your message with a colleague who is interested in these things and we conclude that March is a little early in the year to be drawing significant conclusions. I have been shown some different graphs that appear to show 2014 is not dissimilar to the last few years. I am attaching these for your information.

Best regards

John

S_stddev_timeseries N_bm_extent cryo_compare_small ssmi1_ice_ext_small

Us:

Dear John,

Thank you for your kind words. We’re situated halfway up Haldon, so we avoided the worst of the inclement weather. The top of the hill took a bit of a battering however.

The entrance to Haldon Forest Park on February 24th 2014
The entrance to Haldon Forest Park on February 24th 2014
Haldon Forest Park on March 8th 2014
Haldon Forest Park on March 8th 2014

Our garden suffered a bit too, but thankfully the house was OK.

A new spring gushes from the side of Haldon Hill on Valentine's day 2014
A new spring gushes from the side of Haldon Hill on Valentine’s Day 2014

Others weren’t quite so fortunate:

http://econnexus.org/the-weather-report-from-soggy-south-west-england/

Regarding your own attachments, perhaps in the first instance you might ask your colleague to explain why he or she chooses to send you a NORSEX Arctic sea ice extent graph rather than one from the NSIDC, which I believe we established last summer is The Mail’s oracle on such matters? Please take a good look at the latest NSIDC equivalent to the Antarctic extent graph you sent me, which I attach for your convenience.

NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent graph for March 13th 2014
NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent graph for March 13th 2014

Whilst you’re at it perhaps you could also ask your colleague to answer at least the first three of these simple questions:

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/some-sceptical-questions/

You may also wish to pass on to your colleague the shock news that earlier this week the daily atmospheric carbon dioxide readings from Mauna Loa rose above 400 ppm almost 2 months earlier than last year?

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2014/03/our-guardians-sleeping-on-the-job/

Best wishes,

Jim

We’ll keep you posted!