Tag Archives: JAXA

The Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency

The Greatest Arctic Sea Ice Prophet on the Planet?

The “Shock News” about Arctic sea ice is coming thick and fast as the 2014 melting season reaches its peak. I’ve been debating the meaning all of the various metrics with none other than my old sparring partner “Steve Goddard” AKA Tony Heller. The theory which is mine (in brief!) is that the ice is actually getting thinner and hence travelling faster. As regular Great White Con readers may well suspect by now, Steve/Tony has other ideas. Here are the edited highlights:

 

Them:

Steve/Tony’s latest Arctic sea ice prophecy is entitled “My Arctic Forecast“, although it’s actually his fourth of the season. Here’s his take:

Arctic ice extent will continue to decline for a couple of days, then a cyclone near the North Pole will begin spreading the ice, and the extent curve will turn back towards the median.

The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum, which was the highest minimum of the past decade.

 

Us:

My latest Arctic forecast is more short term than yours Tony, and rather more precise too.

https://archive.today/YpoRm#selection-3929.0-3941.25

“CT area decline of around 180 k over the next two days”. I guess that equates to “CT Arctic sea ice area will reverse and then decline for a couple of days”?

 

Them:

Gutsy to go with a forecast, but then the great ones risk it to gain the glory.

 

Us:

Many thanks for your kind words Phil.

Time passes……

CT Area has just come in at 44,288 square kilometers below yesterday. The “turn on the proverbial dime” has come to pass, and there is only another 135,712 to go!

 

Them:

CT doesn’t measure extent. This post is about extent. Stop being a moron and wasting my time.

Time passes……

icecover_15_20140414I do appreciate you demonstrating so graphically the dissonance and dishonesty of climate alarmists.

 

Us:

The pleasure is all mine Tony.

I’ve asked this before without receiving an answer, but is there any way for commenters on here to include an image?

Failing that is there any way you might be willing and able to display the graph at my JAXA link here?

JAXA_Ice_Extent_20140801

Time passes……

Whoops! The decline was a mere 129,850  🙁

 

Them:

DedaEda says: August 1, 2014 at 2:48 pm

You do have a working knowledge of English. Congratulation!

 

Us:

Thanks for your kind words DedaEda, once again.

A new month means some masks have changed, so the GWC patent pending crystal ball is cloudier than usual. Undaunted the CT oracle hoarsely whispers “Expect a couple more 100 k declines next. Around 225 k in total”

 

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Some Sceptical Questions

With the able assistance of some of the regular readers of Steve Goddard’s so called “Real Science” blog I have drawn up a checklist of questions to answer should you (or any “sceptics” you may be aware of) be suffering from the delusion that the sea ice in the Arctic is “recovering” or “rebounding”:

Us:

1. Is the NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

2. Is the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

3. Is the IJIS Arctic sea ice extent number for March 9th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

4. What credible evidence can you provide to show that “The Arctic is getting colder”?

5. In what way has the NSIDC’s data been “contaminated by Mann”?

6. Where might one find “empirical data that hasn’t been contaminated” if not from the likes of NOAA/NASA/JAXA et. al.

7. How do you define “The Arctic”? [2014-3-12 16:53]

8. How much sea ice do you suppose will be left in the Gulf of St. Lawrence by September? [2014-3-12 20:26]

9. Which version of “the [thickness/volume] truth” do you choose to believe? [2014-3-14 09:30]

10. When was it that the DMI “changed the way they read/interrupt coastal features [which] they incorporated into their extent/area numbers”? [2014-3-15 15:08]

11. Why have we been accused of “a lie” and “put on ignore”? [2014-3-16 15:12]

12. Please be so good as to provide us with a link that describes “the modeling used by NSIDC to ‘create’ these numbers” [2014-3-20 13:00]

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

No reply to any seven eight nine ten eleven of those questions as yet.

Them:

In answer to question 7 Steve Goddard “says”

NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014
NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014

Then a “Real Scientist” asks a sensible question:

Do NSIDC and DMI define the Arctic differently? If so, by how much?

Us:

We say:

1. Yes Dave.

2. Here’s a clue:

OSI Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014
OSI-SAF Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014

We’ll keep you posted!