Strange things are happening in the North Atlantic at the moment. It’s the middle of January, and currently Hurricane Alex is heading straight for Greenland:
By the time he gets there Alex is due to meet another strong storm already spinning north of Newfoundland:
That combination is forecast by Magic Seaweed to bring some interesting surfing conditions to my local beach break here in Soggy South West England this coming weekend:
As we reported on February 18th, some of the Arctic sea ice extent metrics reached the lowest levels for the date in their respective histories quite some time ago. Today though, we’re looking at a full house. The daily NSIDC and IJIS extent numbers have both been at all time lows for the date for quite some time now. Here’s how the NSIDC 5 day average extent looks at the moment:
Meanwhile a series of storms in the North Atlantic have been bringing large surf to the shores of the Western United Kingdom, and battering the edge of the sea ice in the Greenland and Barents Seas. Here’s how GFS looks currently, as visualised by MeteoCiel:
In addition this has resulted in warm air from further south being funnelled into the high Arctic, so much so that the surface temperature anomalies currently look like this:
whilst the temperatures 2 metres above the surface of the Arctic look like this:
If you look closely you’ll see that air temperatures 2 metres above the North Pole are currently similar to those around the shores of the Great Lakes of North America. As a result of all this atmospheric activity today we bring you news that both the Danish Meteorological Institute “new” 15% extent:
and “old” 30% metrics:
have now joined the club.
The Cryosphere Today area metric has been holding out against the trend in sea ice extent for weeks, but we can confidently predict that when their next update is released it too will also reveal the lowest ever Arctic sea ice area for the 65th day of the year, in records going back to 1979. Here’s how their graph looks currently:
As part of the build up to the 2015 Great White Con Arctic Basin Big Wave (Fantasy?) Surfing Contest (GWCABBWFSC for short) we’ve been researching previous Arctic Basin water sports events. You can only imagine our shock and delight when we discovered deep in the depths of the NSIDC’s “Top Secret” archives some never before seen video footage of the USS Skate surfacing “near the North Pole” in the summer of 1958. Even more astonishing than that was the moving pictures of Norbert Untersteiner being towed at high speed behind a powered water craft in the very same lead that SSN-578 had used to reach fresh air and sunshine. Firstly feast your eyes on this:
Now take a look at how 21st century big wave surfers tow into the waves created by calving glaciers:
Shock News! It has recently been brought to our attention by the online version of the Western Morning News (WMN for short), our local daily newspaper, that the once Great Britain’s current Prime Minister (GBPM for short) has been secretly training for next week’s Arctic Basin big wave surfing contest just down the road from here in North Cornwall! According to the WMN:
David Cameron let criticism of his Cornish holiday wash over him today as he hit the waves. Today he spent the afternoon riding the waves on the beach at Polzeath, surrounded by ordinary holidaymakers. Mr Cameron took to the water in a three quarter-length wet suit and brightly-coloured bodyboard. He was accompanied by a detective who kept a discreet watch on him from the shallows.
Despite the discreet detective an intrepid paparazzo braved the pounding Polzeath surf and managed to grab this shot of Mr. Cameron in action:
The next obvious question, to us here in the Great White Con Ivory Towers at least, is whether Dave would prefer to wear neoprene or fur for the competition next week. Which do you think suits him best?
In the meantime the surf on Barrow beach is building:
and even as we speak a pulse of swell has blasted past Point Barrow and is currently heading straight for the Beaufort Sea Marginal Ice Zone.
Regular readers adept at reading between lines may already have concluded that here in the Great White Con Ivory Towers we have been surreptitiously organising the world’s first ever Arctic Basin Big Wave Fantasy Surfing Contest (or GWCABBWFSC for short). Today we are proud to announce that the long waiting period may now be almost over!
Here is the long range Arctic weather forecast from GFS 192 hours from now (courtesy of MeteoCiel):
There looks to be a certain amount of agreement there, so now let’s take a look at ECMWF for T+240h:
If the forecast pans out (a very big IF this far out!) there’s an Arctic storm brewing with the isobars packed tight over all the open water in the Laptev Sea, pushing the potential swell through the East Siberian Sea and on into the Beaufort Sea before it crashes against the northernmost shores of North America.
We fondly imagine a Great White Con team containing the likes of Andrew Cotton:
taking on the biggest waves ever recorded on camera off Alaska’s North Slope, each clad in their respective sponsors’ thickest, finest neoprene.
The opposing “Great Green Con” team will be composed of volunteers from amongst the serried ranks of fiddlers with the facts on Fleet Street such as Andrew Neil, David Rose and Christopher Booker, all clad in matching Polar Bear suits to keep the cold Arctic waters at bay:
To coin a phrase oft used in this particular portion of the blogosphere:
I left the “Self styled” bit out of today’s title, which would have otherwise have been too long for comfort! With all due modesty I do in fact have lots of hard evidence to back my claim. By way of example, here’s a copy of a recent conversation over at “Steve Goddard’s” (un)Real Science blog, but with all the expletives and (most of the) ad homs deleted:
I’m afraid this by now iconic “photoshopped” image of a surfing polar bear culled from Geoffrey Lean’s blog at the Daily Telegraph strikes all Arctic surfing experts, yours truly included, as nothing more that a piss poor piss take (or PPPT for short)!
Us:
As the current “silver” surfer in residence here, perhaps I should point out that this subject is very dear to my heart. The surfing not the bears!
For a photoshopless video of things to come see Red Bull’s “Surfing in Alaska”:
Them:
Hats off to you guys (and beautiful girl)! I got cold just watching it!
Us:
Hats off to Maya certainly. Far more balls than most men, and (conventionally) beautiful with it.
Numpty alert! [Etymology: Numpty first surfaced on the terraces of west of Scotland football grounds, many, many years ago. A player who couldn’t hit a cow’s arse with a shovel would be a f***ing numpty. “Awww Jimmy you f************ing numpty!! You couldnae score wi’ ma’ sister!”]
Three numpties on one thread; is this a record? Could it be due to global warming?
Us:
Cotty tames the waves that almost killed Maya. Paxo interviews him about the experience!
Numpty alert?
Time passes…..
Another surf vid. This one is much more low key. It captures the mellow vibe of a midwinter session somewhere on the North Devon coast:
http://econnexus.org – In which Ralph Freeman, bassist for the Universe Inspectors and British big wave surfer extraordinaire, catches a short ride at Putsborough Beach 18 months after suffering a broken neck whilst surfing low tide Croyde.
It’s great to see a local legend apparently back to full fitness after his injuries.
That was the first time I ever saw Ralph Freeman in action on his trademark bright yellow board, but it wasn’t the last!
Finally, for today at least, here’s a video that Tony Heller and his band of merry (mostly) men have not thus far been privy too. The Red Bull record of the day Maya Gabeira drowned and then Carlos Burle brought her back to life:
In conclusion, here’s the conclusion of the University of Washington paper, that for some strange reason neither Tony or Geoffrey mentioned:
“It is possible that the increased wave activity will be the feedback mechanism which drives the Arctic system toward an ice-free summer. This would be a remarkable departure from historical conditions in the Arctic, with potentially wide-ranging implications for the air-water-ice system and the humans attempting to operate there.”
Them:
Translation…
Surfs up!
Us:
Quite so! Some associated technology testing:
Them:
We’ll keep you posted!
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