Tag Archives: Gish Gallop

Peter Hadfield versus Tom Nelson

Psychology, , , , , , , , ,

This article not directly related to Arctic sea ice, but instead is one of our (very!) occasional series on the psychology of anthropogenic global warming “skepticism”.

Peter Hadfield is better known as the man behind Buster Keaton’s face on the “Potholer54” channel on YouTube. Tom Nelson is the “producer” of Martin Durkin’s “Climate: The Movie”. Peter produced a video criticising that movie. Many months later Peter and Tom have just recorded a “long-form, man-to-man debate” via Zoom about those criticisms. Here is episode 1 of Potholer’s version of events:

Here is “Snow White’s” hot take on the first 10 minutes of Tom Nelson’s version of events on X (formerly Twitter):

In brief, Tom seems to be incapable of providing a straight answer to a straight question, and instead loudly rails against what he continually refers to as the instrumental temperature “spike of doom”.

Can you spot the difference between these two graphs? The first is from Ljungqvist (2010):

The second is from Climate: The Movie (The Cold Truth):

[Update – May 5th]

Note that at 2:18 in the video above Tom says:

I want to make sure that my audience hears everything that you have to say, so I’d hope that we don’t filibuster and try to keep our answers short and snappy.

Here’s the second episode of the Peter v Tom “debate”:

Would anybody here care to run a stopwatch past the time spent “filibustering” by each of the two participants?

In the video description Peter has this to say:

During the debate, Tom asked me a gish-gallop of questions, including whether I ‘believe’ CO2 is the control knob of global temperature, and about the Medieval Warm Period, and the weather, etc. He did not choose any of these as topics for the debate…

So why didn’t I simply answer all his questions and explain this? Because I have had 40 years experience interviewing politicians and government officials, whose strategy is always to divert attention onto another subject whenever you are homing in on a contradiction or a mistake. Even if I had taken the bait and explained what the science actually shows regarding the weather, or the control knob, or the MWP, as soon as I got close to busting another of Tom’s fallacies, he would have interrupted me mid-sentence to try to divert onto another subject. The trick is to always keep them on the topic.

Here’s are Peter’s subsequent musings on the “debate”:


Here’s an excerpt from Peter’s conclusion at ~ 13:40:

People who lobby for industry and vested interests don’t want to discuss the science, they want to support their beliefs. If you agree with their beliefs you’re on their side. If you don’t agree with their beliefs you’re on the other side.

If changing graphs, airbrushing out contradictory information, hiding sources and misrepresenting studies is what it takes to support those beliefs, then it’s perfectly OK.

If the other person is trying to make a point that gets to the facts and the reality, then do everything you can to interrupt, filibuster and deflect. What matters outside the world of science is not getting to “the truth”, but what they call “winning”.

Unfortunately for Tom Nelson, Martin Durkin and the CO2 Coalition, the internet keeps receipts of airbrushing:

That Deaf, Dumb and Blind Kid Sure Plays a Mean ClimateBall™

Satire, , , , , , , ,

Our old friend Tony Heller has been publishing a glorious Gish gallop of articles showing OSI-SAF Arctic sea ice type maps and claiming amongst other things:

“103% Increase In Multi-Year Sea Ice Since 2008” and

“Extent Of Multi-Year Sea Ice At Ten Year High” and

“Multi-year Arctic Sea Ice Extent At Ten Year High” and

“Multi-Year Arctic Sea Ice Continues At Ten Year High“.

The most recent episode in the long running series is entitled “Multiyear Ice Extent up 116% Over The Past Decade“, wherein Tony claims that:

A decade after declaring the end of Arctic multi-year sea ice, it has increased 116% and now covers nearly half of the Arctic.

That is of course not true. In actual fact it’s an “alternative fact” par excellence!

I have been endeavouring to point out to Tony the error of his ways for weeks now, but my words have wisdom have fallen on deaf ears. My graphic graphics have been viewed only by “snow blind” eyes. My incontrovertible arguments have been misapprehended by purpose built dumb and dumberer wetware illogic. By way of example, here’s a refreshingly ad hom free riposte from a typical commenter:

Jimmy Boy actually thinks his honesty and integrity are equally to that of Anthony Watts???

GailCombs-20170316-ROFLMAO

No doubt we’ll get around to discussing Anthony Watts “honesty and integrity” again soon, but for now let’s see if we can finally set this particular badly warped record straight shall we?

Here is the latest OSI-SAF ice type map, for March 16th 2017:

OSI_SAF-ice_type_nh_20170316-annotated

The highlighted area on the left is the Beaufort Sea to the north of Canada. If you’re not “snow blind” you can no doubt readily perceive a large area of allegedly “multi-year sea ice” coloured white. Let’s now take a look at the most recent Canadian Ice Service map of the same area, for March 13th 2017:

Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development on March 13th 2017
Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development on March 13th 2017

Can you see a large area of brown “old ice” covering most of the surface of the Beaufort Sea?

Now let’s take a look on the other side of the Arctic at the area north of the Barents Sea. Can you see a large area of allegedly “multi-year sea ice” coloured white inside the red ellipse on the OSI-SAF map? Next let’s take a look at the most recent University of Bremen SMOS map of the Arctic, for March 15th 2017:

SMOS-20170315

On this map the brightly coloured areas show sea ice that’s less than 50 cm thick. Even when two people explain this point slowly to them the “deplorable denizens” at Mr. Heller’s blog do not manage to get the message! So now let’s look at a closeup comparison between the OSI-SAF ice type map and the University of Bremen SMOS sea ice thickness map:

SMOSvOSI-20170315

As I popped the question to the deplorable denizens over on Tony Heller’s Deplorable Climate Science blog:

For anybody else here who isn’t deaf, dumb and blind, please note all the young, thin sea ice around Svalbard identified by SMOS that OSI-SAF currently classifies as “multi-year” ice.

At the risk of (repeating myself)^n, n → ∞:
Why do Tony, Tommy and Andy persist with this nonsense?

We won’t get fooled again! Will we?

https://youtu.be/ZgubG-MOPT4

Dumb and Dumberer at the Blog of Fools

Satire, , , , , , , ,

Our esteemed guest author “Bill the Frog” recently posed a question:

Looking at the latest Eastern Arctic ice charts from the Canadian Ice Service, I don’t think the crew [of Northabout] will exactly be shitting themselves.

I’m more interested in what a certain Tony Heller will be coming out with next.

It seems as though a certain Tony Heller and his many merry minions are already shitting themselves at the prospect of the plucky little yacht Northabout NOT getting “trapped in ice”. Hence we can provide this preliminary report on the astonishing ignorance of Tony and his faithful flock concerning all things Arctic. For the present we will confine ourselves to Mr. Heller’s latest missive on the Polar Ocean Challenge expedition, wittily entitled but strangely capitalised:

“we are in a race against time before the freeze”

screen-shot-2016-09-09-at-7-20-50-pm

I blogged the same thing yesterday, and the usual hysterical alarmists showed up complaining.

As luck would have it I blogged the same thing recently, and in actual fact it’s the usual hysterical denialists who have showed up both here and there to pen over a hundred comments and counting. Let’s take a look at a select few of them shall we?

For a reason known only to herself our old friend (and “New Einstein” award winner!) Gail Combs posted the weather forecast for Resolute yesterday, but without any link to her source(s):

Resolute, Nunavut
Presently: 28 °F , wind gusts to 14 mph, cloudy

TONIGHT: Saturday Night 09/10 80% / 1-3 in of snow

Snow showers early will become steadier snow overnight. Low 28 °F. Winds S at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of snow 80%. Snow accumulating 1 to 3 inches.

Then today Lawrence13 posts what purports to be the weather forecast for Isachsen whilst simultaneously suggesting that Isachsen is just around the corner from Resolute, which of course it is not:

unreal-isachsen-2

No link to his source this time either.

Meanwhile AndyG55 claims that:

Thing to note though, is that the northern part of the Northwest Passage was blocked by multi-year ice – foremost the western exit – FOR THE ENTIRE SUMMER, and was even not passable by ice breakers.

Needless to say Andy didn’t trouble to provide a link to his source. I therefore took the liberty of revealing to him the latest and greatest Great White Con Northwest Passage video:

Andy’s considered response?

Yep Jimbo, one HECK OF A LOT OF SEA ICE

Wadhams was so, so wrong.

And YOU know it.

He appears to be convinced that Isachsen is somewhere on the “main” route through the Northwest Passage. I took the trouble to inform him that:

According to the Environment Canada Climate Severity Index, Isachsen and the surrounding area has the worst weather in Canada with a CSI severity value of 99 out of a possible 100.

For some strange reason the Polar Ocean Challenge team are not planning on sailing past Isachsen any time soon!

His reply?

Nothing strange about it at all, Jimbo.

The Satellite Sea Ice charts told them they had NO CHANCE through the main North West Passage, so they snuck around through Cambridge Bay.

Andy then doubled down by throwing down all his gauntlets and issuing this challenge to Snow White’s manhood:

FFs, Jimbo, you have GOT to be joking !!!

Come on, coward, take my challenge.

Next year, WITHOUT sea ice charts, FOSSIL FUELS, or satellite navigation..

… I DARE you. !!

Her timid response?

Andy – It sounds as though you’re volunteering to enter the Great White Con Arctic Basin Big Wave Surfing Competition?

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2015/02/shock-historical-news-towing-in-at-the-north-pole-in-1958/

Do you fancy your chances surfing calving glaciers against GMac?

It’s hard to be sure, but I don’t think he does:

So, refusing to take up the challenge.

Coward.

There’s no answer to that! Or is there?

Please feel free to let me know when you want to be fitted for your polar bear suit Andy.

SurfBear

As you may be able to imagine, there’s plenty more dumbness to be discovered where that lot came from. As the day wears on and as time allows expect more amusing anecdotes from the depths of the cryodenialosphere.

 

[Edit – September 13th]

Not content with the dumbness quotient displayed by his faithful follows at the Blog of Fools, “Steven Goddard” has taken to Twitter to harangue poor defenceless Snow White. Here is a brief extract from his Gish gallop around the North Pole:

 

[Edit – September 14th]

Not content with haranguing Snow White about the Arctic “Steve”/Tony and merry Mendy fulminate about flash flooding in Cornwall & Manchester. Allegedly it’s all the media’s fault.

 

[Edit – September 19th]

Tony Heller has blocked poor defenceless Snow White on Twitter, so she cannot include his Tweets in her Storifys. Please feel free to try and work out where this one fits in the grand scheme of things:

It seems self evident that Americans have no sense of humour. They can’t even spell the word correctly. What’s more they also seem not to have the slightest clue about flash floods on this side of the Atlantic, preferring instead to rant about (the lack of) sea level rise on the shores of the “Land of the Free”:

 

Believe it or not, there’s plenty more where that lot came from.

We’ll keep you posted!

Arctic Fraud Continues Unabated

Extent, , , ,

The opening sentence of Tony Heller’s latest Arctic update is astonishingly accurate. Just for once we agree with him when he states:

DMI continues to show rapid melting of Arctic sea ice.

unReal-DMI-20160525

However after that the Arctic fraud continues unabated. Tony assures his loyal readership that:

Their maps show the exact opposite. Arctic sea ice coverage is hardly changing at all.

and:

Equally as troubling is that they show a lot less ice than last year, when in fact there is more ice than last year.

providing this map as justification:

unReal-Comparison-20160525

As unReal Science commenter Peter Ellis put it:

You’re getting caught out by the change in the land mask.

When Caleb quibbled yours truly felt compelled to elucidate:

What have you and Tony been smoking Caleb?

Here’s a satellite image of the Beaufort Sea this year, which is red on Tony’s low resolution 2015/16 comparison map:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on May 20th 2016
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on May 20th 2016

Here’s a satellite image of the the northern edge of the CAA last year, which is green on Tony’s map:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on May 20th 2015, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago on May 20th 2015

Would you care to play “spot the difference” with Peter and I?

[Edit – May 28th 2016]

Tony is doubling down on his Arctic fraud. His Arctic monkey business continues. Despite the lucid explanation of his glaring error provided by Peter Ellis the unReal Science Gish gallop continues. We are now (un)reliably informed that:

The Arctic is very cold, and is not melting.

The amount of ice in the Arctic is almost exactly the same as this date last year.

unReal-2016-05-27-10-40-58

Yours truly has asked all and sundry at unReal Science this question 9 times, phrased in a variety of different ways:

Here’s a satellite image of the the northern edge of the CAA last year. Take a good look at it and then show me the areas of open water corresponding to the green areas on Tony’s final map above.

I have yet to receive an answer.

[Edit – May 29th 2016]

Tony’s doubled down again. His Arctic BS continues for another day:

DMI shows ice rapidly melting and extent far below last year. But their maps show about 1% more ice this year than last.

unReal-2016-05-28-18-41-05

How long will this scam continue?

I tried using a more colourful image of the CAA today. This one’s from May 27th 2015:

CAA-Terra-367-2015-05-27

Once again “No answer!” was the stern reply to my plaintive questions.

[Edit – May 30th 2016]

The “Jousting with Malice in Blunderland” continues, but the oppostion are remarkably quiet today. I’ve had my knuckles rapped about this previously, but cutting and pasting is so quick ‘n easy I simply cannot resist:

Us:

Evidently Tony Heller believes that when it comes to melting sea ice air temperatures are all that matters and that “somewhat warmer ocean water” is irrelevant. see above:

http://realclimatescience.com/2016/05/arctic-bs-continues-for-another-day/#comment-9532

He also evidently believes that in May 2015 large areas of the oldest and thickest sea ice in the Arctic had already melted away to nothing. Perhaps you can point out all the polynyas around the coast of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago this time last year to him, since nobody else has yet managed to do so?

http://go.nasa.gov/1TO7zZk

CAA-Terra-721-2015-05-27

Them:

gees, Jimbo has change to a luminous blue.
Very pretty Jim..
Now how about you show one that shows th near ZERO Arctic sea ice from the first 3/4 of the Holocene..
Or are you still going to DENY/ IGNORE the FACT that there is nothing untoward happening with the Arctic Sea Ice, and all you are arguing about is the INSIGNIFICANT TRIVIA that rules your meaningless life.

Us:

For psychedelic Arctic surface air temperature fans every where:

http://cci-reanalyzer.org/Forecasts/#ARC-LEA

What do you suppose happens to sea ice when you combine “somewhat warmer ocean water” with “somewhat above freezing point air”?

N.B. Such conditions do not currently exist off the north coast of the CAA. They didn’t in May 2015 either.

CCI-2016-05-30_0300

Them:

You on psycho drugs yet again, Jimbo

Which of your Exeter buddies is feeding them too you ?

Us:

Evidently you and Tony are the ones who have been smoking stuff Andy.

In the fantasy wonderland portrayed in several of Tony’s recent “articles” polynyas are depicted in the oldest, thickest sea ice in the Arctic in May 2015. Here is what the real life polynyas in the “oldest, thickest sea ice” in the actual Arctic of May 2016 look like from above (through cyan tinted spectacles):

http://go.nasa.gov/1OXxeYa

CAA-Aqua-721-2016-05-27

[Edit – June 1st 2016]

The Gish gallop continues. In yet another post on the self same topic Tony Heller makes the self same mistake and opines:

DMI still shows a lot less ice than last year, but their maps show about 1% more ice than last year.

2016-05-30-04-03-04-1

I will continue to track this, because I don’t trust any government agency anymore.

Us:

Visual comparison isn’t Tony’s strong suit Sondre, whereas painting hallucinatory green pixels is.

Where are all the holes in the sea ice in the CAA that were there in 2015 but not in 2016 then Andy?

http://www.arctic.io/explorer/8-8/2016-05-29;2015-05-30/6-N79.25236-W95.51613

Them:

weather related changes…

you KNOW that, Jimbo the attention seeking prat.

You have NOTHING, and never have.

Andy:

Shut up about the Holocene, it’s not relevant to modern Arctic sea ice extent trends.
It’t like talking about sun spot trends and then someone comes along and says “Well, this is nothing compared to when the sun becomes a red giant”. Which is true, but not relevant at all.

Us:

Have you noticed that the world’s leading expert on satellite imagery of the Arctic during the first 3/4 of the Holocene epoch has compared MODIS imagery of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago from May 2015 with May 2016 and confirmed that there is no noticeable difference in sea ice extent between the two?

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Trouble Looming for the Arctic?

Extent, , , , , , , , ,

Once again our title for today is inspired by the indefatigable “Steven Goddard”. His latest Arctic themed article on his so called “Real Science” blog is entitled “Trouble Looming For Arctic Alarmists“, and he’s following his usual formula of showing an image or two interspersed with unrelated text. Here’s Tony’s textual take on things, interspersed with our graphic retorts:

Arctic sea ice coverage is nearly identical to 20 years ago:

Not according to the NSIDC it isn't!
Not according to the NSIDC it isn’t!

Arctic sea ice is following almost the exact trajectory of 2006, which had the highest summer minimum of the last decade.

Not according to the NSIDC it isn't!
Not according to the NSIDC it isn’t!

Not according to GFS they're not, and look at the North Pole!
Not according to GFS they’re not, and look at the North Pole!

The Beaufort Sea is full of very thick ice.

Not according to the US Navy it isn't!
Not according to the US Navy it isn’t!

Arctic sea ice is the thickest it has been in a decade.

According to PIOMAS it's thin in the Beaufort, and most other areas too!
According to PIOMAS it’s thin in the Beaufort, and most other areas too!

As we summarised matters for “Steve”/Tony’s loyal readership:

The Gish Gallop continues! Just for the record:

  1. Arctic sea ice coverage is currently NOT nearly identical to 20 years ago
  2. Arctic sea ice is currently NOT following almost the exact trajectory of 2006
  3. Arctic sea ice is currently NOT the thickest it has been in a decade in Ron’s beloved Beaufort/Chukchi/East Siberian Seas (BCE for short)
  4. Renowned Arctic sea ice expert “Steve Goddard” predicted last year that.”The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum, which was the highest minimum of the past decade”. That’s not how things eventually turned out!

The Greatest Arctic Sea Ice Prophet on the Planet?

The unedited version of "Steve's" extent graph
The unedited version of “Steve’s” DMI extent graph earlier today

Forecasting Sea Ice Extent in the Dark

Censorship, , , , , , , ,

My title today refers to the fact that the summer Arctic sea ice forecasting season is with us once again. The ARCUS Sea Ice Outlook (SIO for short) started in 2008, with the aim of gathering together and publishing “community predictions of the September sea ice extent”.  The SIO is now part of the recently created Sea Ice Prediction Network, and the deadline for submission for the first set of forecasts of 2014 was June 10th.

I have a professional interest in UK and international energy policy, and as a consequence I have been commenting on the recent attempts of  Professor Richard Tol to debunk the so called “97% climate change consensus” elsewhere in the blogosphere. As luck would have it I allowed myself to become engaged in what was supposedly a conversation about that very topic on the What’s Up With That blog.  Feel free to read all about it if you’d like to see a pseudo-skeptical gish gallop in full swing:


Whilst over there I couldn’t help but notice that Anthony Watts had left things until the eleventh hour before asking his faithful followers to contribute to the Sea Ice Outlook June survey. I also couldn’t help but notice that despite assurances to the contrary a few short weeks ago (and even after my recent “extra heads up“!)  the  WUWT “Sea Ice Reference Page” is still sadly lacking in a wide range of  information about Arctic sea ice thickness and volume. Consequently I figured I would be performing a valuable public service by bringing this to the attention of Anthony and his readers. Here’s what happened after that:

Us:

2014-06-10_1654_WUWT

Them:

June 10, 2014 at 8:55 am

[snip no, we are not going to have you thread-jack again by pushing your own website and own views – Anthony]

Us:

June 10, 2014 at 9:32 am

Re: @Anthony says: June 10, 2014 at 8:55 am
It’s not my “own views” Anthony. In fact it’s a long list of useful facts and figures for anybody attempting to forecast the future of Arctic sea ice. A long list of useful information still noticeable only by its absence from the WUWT sea ice reference page.
 

Them:

REPLY: We aren’t forecasting volume, we are forecasting extent, so again, your views that we should pay attention to volume graphs on your website (your favorite hobby horse) in this extent forecasting exercise are irrelevant. Don’t clutter up this thread further – Anthony.

Them & Us:

 

Them:

In the absence of a wide range of scientific information concerning the current thickness distribution of sea ice in the Arctic, and after due deliberation about the likely value of the NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent metric in September 2014, Anthony concluded:

A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.

Us:

We’ll keep you posted!