The JAXA extent graph is currently not updating, so let’s begin this month with the latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute. Click the image to see a ~10 Mb animation of the last four weeks:

Note in particular the restart of export into the East Greenland Sea via the Fram Strait:

and the movement of ice within the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for September 2024 has been released:

Note that there is only one small area remaining with ice over 3 meters thick. Zooming in on the CAA, and comparing with last month, it can be seen that what little remains of the thickest ice has been moved by recent winds west across the the Prince Gustaf Adolf Sea:

Plus (somewhat belatedly) the accompanying volume graph:

At the end of September PIOMAS volume was 4.50 thousand km³, 3rd lowest for the date (in the satellite era).

The most recent weekly chart from the Canadian Ice Service reveals that the Parry Channel remains almost entirely free of sea ice:

[Update – October 7th]

On September 29th the Northern Sea Route General Administration announced that:

The ice situation in the waters of the Northern Sea Route this year is characterized by the early onset of ice formation due to the large amount of residual ice, especially in the eastern sector of the Arctic ( the Laptev Sea, the East Siberian Sea, the Chukchi Sea). For this reason, the end of summer-autumn navigation in areas 12-28 of the NSR water area will be due to earlier ship release dates from the NSR water area for the following types:

For vessels without an ice class, the sailing period is until 10/15/2024;
For all vessels with Ice1-Ice3 ice class, the sailing period is until 10/20/2024;
For vessels with bulbous and ice class Arc4-Arc5 until 10/31/2024.

The container ship Hui Da 9, which possesses a non Arctic ice class 1 certification, is currently passing the New Siberian Islands en route to Cape Dezhnev and beyond:

The latest National Weather Service sea ice chart for Alaska shows that the ice free gap between the East Siberian and Chukchi Seas has already shrunk almost to nothing:

However, help is at hand in the form of the icebreaker Sibir:

The latest Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute forecast suggests the way will remain clear for a few more days at least, but I await further developments in the region with interest!

[Update – October 8th]

The JAXA extent graph has burst back into life! Currently extent is 4th lowest for the date in the satellite era:

Doing further due diligence on traffic along the Northern Sea Route it seems the non ice hardened bulk carrier Smoke is currently in the Kara Sea, heading for the Vilkitsky Strait en route to Shanghai:

[Update – October 9th]

The latest weekly charts from the Canadian Ice Service reveal new ice (coloured pink on the left hand stage of development map) starting to form in the McClure Strait and eastern Beaufort Sea:

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[Update – October 12th]

The latest CIS daily charts show new ice starting form on the Beaufort Sea coast:

The latest AARI charts show similar developments on the shores of the East Siberian Sea:

Meanwhile Hui Da 9 has made it safely through the shrinking gap of navigable water into the Chukchi Sea, which is now occupied by 1/10 concentration of new ice:

Smoke has reached the western East Siberian Sea

[Update – October 15th]

The Arctic sea ice age map for the end of the 2024 melting season has finally been released:

The arm of older ice in the northern Beaufort Sea has melted away, leaving the Pacific side of the Central Arctic with only first year ice remaining.

The exit from the East Siberian Sea into the Chukchi Sea is now full of new ice:

Smoke made it through the gap without apparent mishap, but Sibir is now actively icebreaking in the region:

Meanwhile at the other end of the Beaufort Sea, according to AWI’s AMSR2 metric sea ice extent in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago is still lowest for the date by a considerable margin:

Watch this space!