At the beginning of September JAXA/ViSHOP extent was 4th lowest for the date in the satellite era:
For much more detail on sea ice extent for the next few weeks please see the dedicated 2024 minimum thread. However, note that as extent has been flatlining sea ice area is still declining:
The latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals that the area of thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has still not melted:
The most recent sea ice age map currently available dates from the beginning of August. Comparison with the concentration map shows that most of the remaining first year ice is highly fragmented, even close to the North Pole:
The central Arctic is currently still dominated by low pressure, but the GFS forecast suggests that high pressure will build over the next few days:
As the 2024 minimum extent approaches there will be a race between refreezing in the centre versus continued melting at the periphery. The advent of high pressure may also result in compaction of remaining low concentration areas. Which of these processes will emerge victorious?
[Update – September 5th]The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for August 2024 has just been released:
It shows that the thickest remaining sea ice is now to be found in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago rather than in the Arctic Ocean itself:
Modelled volume was 4.17 thousand km³ on August 31st, 3rd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:
DMI volume remains lowest for the date in their record:
Following a decidedly non standard trip through the Northwest Passage, the polar class 2 cruise ship Le Commandant Charcot is now undertaking an even more unusual voyage. From Nome, Alaska to Svalbard via the North Pole:
Le Commandant Charcot has reached the marginal ice zone north of Alaska:
Here’s the current view from the ship’s webcam:
The central Arctic high didn’t quite work out as forecast, and is now sliding off towards the Fram Strait, with a modest low over the Chukchi Sea:
Plus Le Commandant Charcot’s view of the sea ice at just over 80N:
Watch this space!
The JAXA graph shows quite clearly that Arctic ice extent has averaged about the same since 2007.
But that is off message and will not be tolerated. lol!
[Comment moved to a more appropriate thread – Mod]
Hello again Peter,
I cannot help but notice that you still haven’t answered this question:
https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2023/12/facts-about-the-arctic-in-december-2023/#comment-724331
Here’s another one for you. Can you spot the difference between Arctic sea ice age in August 2007 and in 2024, pictured above?
Of the ten lowest JAXA minimums,seven have occurred in the past ten years.
Then there are 2007, 2012 which off the charts in their time…
And the trend, Tom? I’m guessing that if “seven [of the ten lowest] have occurred in the last ten years, that if the overall trend is strongly down, then we are headed for big trouble. If it’s not down, and particularly if it’s slightly up, then maybe we are at a bottom, which would be good news.
See why such statistics don’t convey much information, but leave concern on the minds of general audiences? Or is that the point of such unidimensional stats?
As with area, it’s trending down so far, though obviously not as fast as the early 2000s when the arctic was loosing so much thicker multi year ice.
If the ice is going to recover back towards what it was, it hasn’t started yet unfortunately
As Tom pointed out, the “surprises” from the extent trend have only been on the downside:
“Surprises on the downside…”. Yes, but as your adjusted graph points out, neither of the ‘surprises’ were lately. Were those maybe a bottom? I suspect it will be a few more years before we know for sure.
no mention of volume when DMI said it was at record low?
I’m a trifle confused by your comment, since I’ve already mentioned both the PIOMAS and DMI flavours of volume.