Having yet to cross metaphorical swords with many of the more foul mouthed “skeptics” of my acquaintance this missive comes to you later than usual this year. However I have just come across one Alan Poirier for the first time.
1) Apparently Alan’s source of Arctic expertise is Watts Up With That!
This is how the entirety of our conversation on Twitter went earlier this evening (UTC):
2) The pseudonymous Vegieman’s apparent source of Arctic expertise is Tony Heller!
This is how he signed off from our recent conversation over at Tony’s unReal Climate Science blog:
The arrogant, condescending manner you project is consistent with those that defend the absurdities of every godless, human denigrating, population destroying effort currently being perpetrated on mankind everywhere. What possesses you and your kind to glory in heaping hopelessness, misery, and despair on your neighbor? To come here and strut your depraved condition is evidence of your insecurity. Tony and most here share an integrity and regard for truth that you are severely deficient in. It would be good if you could abandon your sinking ship, but I know it is a very hard descent from the crows nest in which you reside.
Watch this space!
Jim: I found that exchange educational. I actually talked to Al Gore when he was Vice President – face to face – about global warming, and US policy in general – in the basement of the VFW outside Minneapolis in 2000.
I had a dozen activists with me and he had his dozen secret service. One of them said, “C’mon Al let’s go!” after about 20 minutes of debate. VP Gore got into his helicopter – I then recorded the whole event and it got posted online. I could find it for you if you’re interested.
I’m extremely interested Drew!
What has a politician with a helicopter flight and security detail got to do with the price of eggs in China? My dad could troll climate change better and he’s actually contributed to the publication of it. In the end all those estimates are conservative due to the fact all contributing nations have vested economic interests and are allowed to say what is and is not printed .. critics are actually are a valid part of the scientific process: what a nothing burger, lol! Science has always been political, [NEXT!]
Al Gore quoted two studies in Oslo in 2007.
“One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.”
4.64 million square kilometers is a long way from “ice free”.
22+2007 = 2029. Only seven years to “ice free”?
So Al Gore didn’t say words to the effect that “[The Arctic] should be ice free [long before 2022]”.
Paraphrasing slightly he said words to the effect that “One [academic] study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer by 2029″.
Al was also misrepresenting Maslowski’s unpublished work, but he still said “could”, not “should” or “will”.
PolitiFact’s alleged “fact checking” also leaves a lot to be desired!
For clarification the 4.64 million Sq.Km. above refers to the Sea Ice Prediction forecast for July. The forecast for September 2022 sea-ice extent is 4.64 million sq.km.
The DMI Arctic sea ice September trend line is falling at the rate of 81 thousand sq.km. per year. (4,640,000/81,000=57years). We “could” or “should” see an ice free Arctic in the Summer months by 2079.
I don’t foresee Arctic sea ice ever falling below 1 million…
Latest IPCC report states
“The Arctic is likely to be practically sea ice free in
September31 at least once before 2050 under the five illustrative scenarios considered in this report, with
more frequent occurrences for higher warming levels.”
“Practically ice free” is defined as 1 million sq.km.
1 million km^2 is often referred to as 1 Wadham, Neil, in honor of professor Peter Wadhams, who persistently projected that the Arctic would be ice free in a few years, nearly every year. I have often referred to current ice extent with that term. Today, for example NSDIC shows extent at 6.7 Wadhams.
He is now Emeritus at Cambridge, so hopefully out of the prediction business.
Thanks Taylor. Quite agree with your views regarding Peter Wadhams. I haven’t, as yet, seen any of his forecasts for 2022
It’s never going below 1M for extent: it just gets thinner..
Never say “never”!