Tag Archives: Steven Goddard

Steven Goddard. Pseudonymous proprieter of the “Real Science” and “Real Climate Science” blogs. Apparently Steve’s real name is Tony Heller.

How Many Subs In Santa’s Swimming Pool?

An extract from a  discussion about submarines surfacing at the North Pole, courtesy of Steven Goddard’s “Real Science” blog. One of us must be blind!

Them:

Hey spambot, what is this picture of?

USS Skate (SSN-578) made submarine history on 11 August 1958 when it became the first submarine to surface at the North Pole
USS Skate (SSN-578) made submarine history on 11 August 1958 when it became the first submarine to surface at the North Pole

Us:

It would seem to be the USS Skate on 11 August 1958 when it became the first submarine to surface at the North Pole. What is this picture of?

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole area on September 2nd 2013

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole area on September 2nd 2013, derived from bands 1, 4 and 3 of the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

Them:

Frozen ice. What is my prize?

And basically yours is just a snipe hunt. Mine disproves your hysteria.

Us:

No prize I’m afraid. The correct answer is vast areas of open ocean. Plenty of room for every submarine on the planet.

Them:

Sorry, there is no open water. Check your picture again. So you are reneging? Typical.

Us:

I have checked again, and I still see lots of open water underneath a thin veil of cloud. Perhaps you should arrange a hasty visit to an optician? Luckily microwaves can see through clouds, even if you cannot. Here’s another satellite image of the North Pole area from September 2nd 2013, this time a University of Hamburg visualisation of data from the AMSR2 sensor on board the Japanese SHIZUKU satellite.

AMSR2 image of the North Pole area on September 2nd 2013

AMSR2 image of the North Pole area on September 2nd 2013

The circle is 85 degrees North. How many subs do you suppose will fit into Santa’s secret summer swimming pool?

Them:

You have X-ray vision? I am sorry! I did not realize you were stuper girl! Want to try again? This time with normal vision.

BTW. for the SLOOOOOW learners. 85 North +/= North pole. The North Pole is WITHIN 85 North. But it is NOT 85 North.

The Skate is at 90 North. The NORTH POLE.

You may have x-ray vision, but you still cannot read a map. neither picture shows open water AT the north pole.

How many submarines are on the planet Snowy? better recheck your figures. They are not tinker toys.

Us:

You’re a hard man to please Phil! Feast your eyes on this picture instead then:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole area on August 28th 2013, derived from bands 1, 4 and 3 of the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the North Pole area on August 28th 2013, derived from bands 1, 4 and 3 of the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Shock News! “Real Science” Censorship!

Earlier on this morning a debate about censorship started over on the so called “Real Science” blog. Unfortunately after a couple of attempts it became clear to me that my participation was not welcome.

Them:

A question about censorship is posed on the "Real Science" blog
A question about censorship is posed on the “Real Science” blog

Meanwhile over on Twitter

Us:

Them:

 

Us:

 

Subsequently, back on “Real Science” (and possibly thanks to Dave’s intervention below)

Convincing evidence of censorship at Steve Goddard's "Real Science" blog

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

The Truth About Arctic Sea Ice Thickness

Shock News! According to Steven Goddard last week “The Arctic continues to recover“. However some fresh new evidence has been uncovered today:

Them:

ACNFS forecast for Arctic sea ice thickness on March 11th 2014, from the March 3rd model run
ACNFS forecast for Arctic sea ice thickness on March 11th 2014

[Image from the 1/12° Arctic Cap HYCOM/CICE/NCODA archive]

Meanwhile over on Twitter:

Us:

 

 Them:

 

 Us:

PIOMAS gridded Arctic sea ice thickness for February 2014
PIOMAS gridded Arctic sea ice thickness for February 2014
SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness comparison for March 1st 2011-14
SMOS Arctic sea ice thickness comparison for March 1st 2011-14

[Images courtesy of Wipneus on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum]

Some Sceptical Questions

With the able assistance of some of the regular readers of Steve Goddard’s so called “Real Science” blog I have drawn up a checklist of questions to answer should you (or any “sceptics” you may be aware of) be suffering from the delusion that the sea ice in the Arctic is “recovering” or “rebounding”:

Us:

1. Is the NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

2. Is the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

3. Is the IJIS Arctic sea ice extent number for March 9th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

4. What credible evidence can you provide to show that “The Arctic is getting colder”?

5. In what way has the NSIDC’s data been “contaminated by Mann”?

6. Where might one find “empirical data that hasn’t been contaminated” if not from the likes of NOAA/NASA/JAXA et. al.

7. How do you define “The Arctic”? [2014-3-12 16:53]

8. How much sea ice do you suppose will be left in the Gulf of St. Lawrence by September? [2014-3-12 20:26]

9. Which version of “the [thickness/volume] truth” do you choose to believe? [2014-3-14 09:30]

10. When was it that the DMI “changed the way they read/interrupt coastal features [which] they incorporated into their extent/area numbers”? [2014-3-15 15:08]

11. Why have we been accused of “a lie” and “put on ignore”? [2014-3-16 15:12]

12. Please be so good as to provide us with a link that describes “the modeling used by NSIDC to ‘create’ these numbers” [2014-3-20 13:00]

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

No reply to any seven eight nine ten eleven of those questions as yet.

Them:

In answer to question 7 Steve Goddard “says”

NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014
NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014

Then a “Real Scientist” asks a sensible question:

Do NSIDC and DMI define the Arctic differently? If so, by how much?

Us:

We say:

1. Yes Dave.

2. Here’s a clue:

OSI Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014
OSI-SAF Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014

We’ll keep you posted!

How to Upset a Global Warming Sceptic

We are proud to bring you this blast from Steven Goddard’s past, reprinted with permission from econnexus.org.uk:

In the first of an occasional series under the “Shock News” banner we reveal how to upset a global warming sceptic in three easy stages.

  1. Smell something fishy about a headline that states “New Ice At The North Pole” on July 2nd 2013 and examine “the evidence” from arctic.io presented to substantiate this assertion:
Satellite image of sea ice near the North Pole on July 2nd 2013, courtesy of arctic.io
Satellite image of sea ice near the North Pole on July 2nd 2013, courtesy of arctic.io
  1. Post a link to an alternative view of the same scene from NASA Worldview:
Satellite image of sea ice near the North Pole on July 2nd 2013, courtesy of NASA EOSDIS Worldview
Satellite image of sea ice near the North Pole on July 2nd 2013, courtesy of NASA EOSDIS Worldview
  1. Indulge in a little light hearted banter
A little light hearted banter on July 3rd 2013
A little light hearted banter on July 3rd 2013
  1. QED!
Whoops!
Whoops!
  1. Hence no opportunity to present any “real scientific” evidence about what’s really happening to the Arctic sea ice near the North Pole:
Thermistor temperature profiles for IMB 2012J
Thermistor temperature profiles for IMB 2012J

The Arctic Sea Ice “Recovery” Vanishes

It’s highly probable that whatever metric you choose to use the 2014 Arctic sea ice maximum area and extent will occur this month. Consequently the volume of nonsense propagated by the “skeptics” amongst the “mass media” is increasing also. Earlier today yesterday’s sea ice metrics were published and currently both the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area and NSIDC daily extent are at all time lows for the date. Needless to say that hasn’t stopped the denialosphere prattling on about an “Arctic Ice Recovery” yet again.

First of all, here’s our evidence:

Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area graph, as at March 8th 2014
Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area graph, as at March 8th 2014

[Graph from Cryosphere Today interactive Arctic sea ice chart]

NSIDC daily extent graph for March
NSIDC daily extent graph for March, as at March 8th 2014

[Graph courtesy of BornFromTheVoid at the Arctic Sea Ice Forum]

Now I couldn’t help but notice that yet another reproduction of the Mail on Sunday’s erroneous graphic first printed at the time of the 2013 minimum appeared on Steven Goddard’s “Real Climate” blog  last week. Steve has been using a variety of other graphics in his assorted attempts to persuade his readers that there is in fact an “Arctic Ice Recovery”. Needless to say, we beg to differ!

Them:

Shocking Increase In Arctic Ice Dooms The Planet – How Ice Sheet Grew 533,000 Square Miles in a Year

Us:

Whilst we’re on the subject of cherry picking, it looks a lot like the left hand part of the image dates from August 27th 2012 whereas the right hand part dates from August 15th 2013. If you’re interested in seeing a similar image dating from September 8th 2013, when the original version of the image above was originally published in the Mail on Sunday over here in once Great Britain then please feel free to take a long hard look at:

https://GreatWhiteCon.info/2013/09/santas-secret-summer-swim/

Credible evidence, or not?

Them:

Arctic Ice Recovery

The dirty little secret of Arctic sea ice, is that it is controlled by winter winds – not temperature. Over the last few years, the older thicker ice has pushed into the Beaufort Sea where it survives the winter and slows summer melt. Thus the Arctic continues to “recover.”

ACNFS forecast for Arctic sea ice thickness on March 11th 2014, from the March 3rd model run
ACNFS forecast for Arctic sea ice thickness on March 11th 2014

[Image from the 1/12° Arctic Cap HYCOM/CICE/NCODA archive]

 Us:

Actually the Arctic doesn’t “continue to recover”. Whilst a bit hard to see on their rather cluttered chart the latest PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume estimates show that the so called “recovery” had almost completely “melted away” by the end of February:

PIOMAS arctic sea ice volume on February 28th from 1979-2014
PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume on February 28th from 1979-2014

 [Image by Chris Reynolds on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog]

Them:

Planet Doomed By Missing Ice Cube In The Barents Sea

NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 6th 2014
NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 6th 2014

Us:

Here’s the thing (well, 2 things actually)

1. Steve’s “map” shows the NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent, but you make no mention of it. Perhaps that’s because that particular metric is currently at the lowest it has ever been on this day of any year since the satellites started attempting to measure it? How on Earth can he possibly characterize that as any sort of “recovery”?

2. Surely the very title of this thread (“ice cube”) implies a volume, does it not? I believe Steve’s an engineer, and so he is presumably well aware that a square and a cube are completely different kettles of fish (metaphorically speaking)? All that being the case, why on Earth would Steve choose to illustrate his point with a “map” of ice extent instead of a “graph” of ice volume?

For the moment we rest our case, but rest assured that there is plenty more where this lot came from!