Tag Archives: Censorship

Watts Up With Polariced Mysteries?

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It’s not very often that we discuss an article from Watts Up With That with even the vaguest hint of approval in the smoke filled editorial offices at the Great White Con, but here’s the exception that proves the rule! No doubt the fact that allegedly I inspired the article in question is also relevant? Here’s the start of a guest post at WUWT entitled “Polariced Mysteries“, written by our old friend Willis Eschenbach:

I got into a discussion about polar sea ice in the comments to my post Where Is The Climate Emergency?. In the process I noticed some mysteries.

To start with, here’s the Arctic sea ice area record.

The mystery for me in this record is the decade from about 1998 to 2008. There’s very little month-to-month variation in the record over that period, and the ice area is dropping steadily … followed by ~ thirteen years of very large month-to-month variations with little overall change in ice area. Is this real? Is it an artifact? Unknown.

Then we have the Antarctic ice area record …

Here, the obvious mystery is, just what the heck happened around 2015-2017 to cause the Antarctic ice area to drop so precipitously?

And finally, putting both poles together, we get the following:

etc. etc…

At the North Pole, there is an ocean covered with sea ice. At the South Pole, there’s a high rocky plateau covered with land ice and surrounded by sea ice. Yet despite these totally different situations, the area of sea ice is almost exactly the same at both poles … say what?

I will say that I am overjoyed that the world of climate contains far more mysteries than answers …

“When nothing is for sure, we remain alert, perennially on our toes. It is more exciting not to know which bush the rabbit is hiding behind than to behave as though we knew everything.”
—Carlos Castaneda, in The Teachings of Don Juan

My best to all adventurers in this most marvelous universe,

Thanks for your good wishes Willis, but there is a big black fly in the marvellous universal ointment. No sooner had a potentially enlightening discussion begun than darkness descended from on high:

At the risk of repeating myself:

What do you suppose the effect of ice-albedo feedback will prove to be over the next 10 years or so? Or if you prefer over the last 10 years or so?

And why “remove the seasonality”. As you correctly pointed out over there, “When the ice is mostly there the sun mostly isn’t”.

Censorship Down Under by Senator Malcolm Roberts

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Senator Malcolm Roberts is live streaming “a public forum in Parliament House tonight where we will be deconstructing climate data from over 250 data sets” via his Facebook page. Allegedly:

You can listen in and see the empirical evidence for yourself which disproves the AGW hypothesis.

An invitation has also been extended to the Chief Scientist, CSIRO Chief Executive and staff, and the Director of the Bureau of Meteorology to attend and engage in these discussions.

Malcolm asked:

QUESTIONS?

so I obliged with a few. They all seem to have disappeared:

Selection_999(183)

Selection_999(174)

Selection_999(177)

Selection_999(176)

Aren’t “One Nation” advocates of “free speech”? A prime prize of a packet of peanuts to the first person to spot one or more of the above in the wild on Facebook.

 

[Edit – March 30th]

Additional news on this story arrives via Twitter:

Censored Arctic Shipping Update

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Our headline for today is only partially plagiarised from today’s “Arctic Shipping Update” article on “Steven Goddard’s” (un)Real Science blog. This morning Tony Heller posted the following ACNFS Arctic sea ice concentration visualisation:

icen2014082118_2014082900_039_arcticicen.001

 

Them:

Climate experts say that Northeast and Northwest Passages are open for business, but neither will open up this year.

Us:

Your comment is awaiting moderation.
August 23, 2014 at 12:37 pm

At the risk of repeating myself:


 

not to mention:


Time passes….


Whilst we wait for Steve/Tony to do the decent thing, I thought I might take this opportunity to point out that currently there are 555 vessels with official “Permission for navigation on the water area of the Northern Sea Route” this year.

One of them is the Hapag-Lloyd cruise ship MS Hanseatic, which is currently wending its way through the New Siberian Islands:

2014-08-23_Hanseatic

The Hanseatic also carries a webcam. Here’s what it reveals at the moment:

Hanseatic_2014_08_230410

It’s currently pretty plain sailing on that section of the Northern Sea Route by the look of things!

Us:

By the morning of Sunday August 24th (UTC) my dissenting comment had been released from limbo, although it had remained there the previous evening.
Them:

Somebody is telling a story aren’t they? Perhaps you’d like to tell us where the ship is. On the one hand I see a ship with the name Silver Explorer stuck in the ice, and then on the other I see your picture with green ice free waters. Everybody is going to be looking for this vessel now. Anybody with a satellite phone? Maybe they will wait it out till the ice thaws, like they did at the other pole. I will be saving that pretty picture of green, just in case you told us so.

 

Us:

Are you aware of the difference between the Northwest Passage and the Northern Sea Route, which is sometimes referred to as “the Northeast Passage”? That “pretty picture of green” is of the latter. Here’s the current position of the cruise ship MS Hanseatic in the Laptev Sea, coloured green on the map above:

 

You will note that my comment above was “stuck in Steve’s moderation queue” for many hours, which does rather spoil the flow of the conversation!

 

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

 

Does Tony Heller Need To Be Prosecuted?

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In some recent shock news over at the “Real Science” blog “Steven Goddard” asked “Who is Steven Goddard” and then answered himself as follows:

My name is Tony Heller. I am a whistle blower. I am an independent thinker who is considered a heretic by the orthodoxy on both sides of the climate debate.

I’m highly unorthodox, so I’ll consider him as a schizoidal cherry picking pseudo-skeptic instead. Steve/Tony finishes his “coming out” article as follows:

I am more than happy to debate anyone who feels up to the challenge, including the President of The United States. Science works through research and debate – not censorship, propaganda, faith, or intimidation.

Steve/Tony has been blogging about Arctic sea ice again recently. His most recent post is entitled “Does The Arctic Need To Be Prosecuted?“, but it seems he’s unwilling to engage in debate about that topic with me.

Them:

Some climate experts want to make skepticism of junk science a felony, and every day it becomes more clear that the Arctic has no respect for climate models or eminent government scientists. This is shocking, and it is time for the Arctic to be prosecuted. The Arctic is aiding and abetting climate deniers, as well as making obscene gestures towards the world’s leading academics.

DMI "new" Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

DMI “new” Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

 

Us:

Needless to say Steve/Tony has yet to approve my comment on his ruminations, which reads as follows:

2014-07-26_1314_RealScienceThis is what the Cryosphere Today graph of Arctic sea ice area I linked to looks like at the moment:

Cryosphere Today interactive Arctic sea ice area graph on July 26th 2014
Cryosphere Today interactive Arctic sea ice area graph on July 26th 2014

This is what the NORSEX extent chart that Eliza linked to looks like this morning:

NORSEX SSM/I Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014
NORSEX SSM/I Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

Here’s another one for good measure, this time showing NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent:

NSIDC interactive Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014
NSIDC interactive Arctic sea ice extent graph on July 26th 2014

As far as I am aware there is no law against being a schizoidal cherry picking pseudo-skeptic in the United States of America, or anywhere else for that matter. Please feel free to comment below if you know otherwise and/or think that there should be!

 

Them:

After a protracted exchange on Twitter a copy of my comment eventually saw the light of day:

 

Us:

We’ll keep you posted!

 

Forecasting Sea Ice Extent in the Dark

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My title today refers to the fact that the summer Arctic sea ice forecasting season is with us once again. The ARCUS Sea Ice Outlook (SIO for short) started in 2008, with the aim of gathering together and publishing “community predictions of the September sea ice extent”.  The SIO is now part of the recently created Sea Ice Prediction Network, and the deadline for submission for the first set of forecasts of 2014 was June 10th.

I have a professional interest in UK and international energy policy, and as a consequence I have been commenting on the recent attempts of  Professor Richard Tol to debunk the so called “97% climate change consensus” elsewhere in the blogosphere. As luck would have it I allowed myself to become engaged in what was supposedly a conversation about that very topic on the What’s Up With That blog.  Feel free to read all about it if you’d like to see a pseudo-skeptical gish gallop in full swing:


Whilst over there I couldn’t help but notice that Anthony Watts had left things until the eleventh hour before asking his faithful followers to contribute to the Sea Ice Outlook June survey. I also couldn’t help but notice that despite assurances to the contrary a few short weeks ago (and even after my recent “extra heads up“!)  the  WUWT “Sea Ice Reference Page” is still sadly lacking in a wide range of  information about Arctic sea ice thickness and volume. Consequently I figured I would be performing a valuable public service by bringing this to the attention of Anthony and his readers. Here’s what happened after that:

Us:

2014-06-10_1654_WUWT

Them:

June 10, 2014 at 8:55 am

[snip no, we are not going to have you thread-jack again by pushing your own website and own views – Anthony]

Us:

June 10, 2014 at 9:32 am

Re: @Anthony says: June 10, 2014 at 8:55 am
It’s not my “own views” Anthony. In fact it’s a long list of useful facts and figures for anybody attempting to forecast the future of Arctic sea ice. A long list of useful information still noticeable only by its absence from the WUWT sea ice reference page.
 

Them:

REPLY: We aren’t forecasting volume, we are forecasting extent, so again, your views that we should pay attention to volume graphs on your website (your favorite hobby horse) in this extent forecasting exercise are irrelevant. Don’t clutter up this thread further – Anthony.

Them & Us:

 

Them:

In the absence of a wide range of scientific information concerning the current thickness distribution of sea ice in the Arctic, and after due deliberation about the likely value of the NSIDC Arctic sea ice extent metric in September 2014, Anthony concluded:

A value of 6.12 million sq km will be sent to ARCUS.

Us:

We’ll keep you posted!

 

 

 

 

 

“Real Science” Censorship – Episode 2

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After having a brush with the “Real Science” censor last month I’ve really gone and done it now. Steven Goddard’s blog has been badmouthing Al Gore recently. I’m afraid I couldn’t let that slight on Al’s predictive abilities go unchallenged. Steve evidently didn’t care for my suggestion that he “is fond of poetic license”, so my alter ego is “now spam” there too:

I’ve cut out much of the gratuitous abuse in the ensuing conversation, but you can peruse an archived version if you so desire. Note amongst other things that Al Gore never mentioned “16 foot thick ice in the Beaufort Sea”. Here are the expurgated highlights:

Them:

Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Al Gore says that the 16 foot thick ice in the Beaufort Sea will all melt in the next few weeks.

http://www.examiner.com/article/gore-arctic-ocean-ice-free-as-early-as-2014

Us:

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said in 2009.

There’s still plenty of time left for some of the models to be proved 75% correct!

 

Them:

“Some models suggest.” I love that – so very scientific. Some do, others don’t.

 

Us:

I realise Steve is fond of poetic license, but my point is that in the article Steve references Al Gore did not “predict an ice free Arctic in 2014″. He didn’t even “predict an ice free Arctic by 2016 at the latest”

 

Them:

I have warned you numerous times about lying about me. This is your last warning
http://www.examiner.com/article/gore-arctic-ocean-ice-free-as-early-as-2014

 

Us:

Steve – My Gore quote from April 15, 2014 at 10:41 am is cut/pasted from the article you just linked to. Here’s another quote from the same article, presumably a journalist’s interpretation of Gore’s words:
“Today at the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen, Al Gore said there is new computer modeling that suggests the Arctic Ocean may be nearly ice-free in the summertime as early as 2014.”

 

Them:

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said.
Attack Gore for being an idiot. Not me for reporting on it.

 

Us:

Unpublished comment on Steven Goddard's "Real Science" blog from Wednesday April 16th at 12:55 UTC
Unpublished comment on the “Real Science” blog from Wednesday April 16th at 12:55 UTC

 

Them:

They have so far neglected to publish the above comment.

 

Us:

We’ll keep you posted!

What’s Up With Watts Moderation? Episode 1

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We proudly present some “Shock News” concerning a disappearing comment of ours on the “Watts Up With That” blog.

According to the April 2014 edition of the NSIDC’s Arctic Sea Ice News:

The percentage of the Arctic Ocean consisting of ice at least five years or older remains at only 7%, half of what it was in February 2007. Moreover, a large area of the multiyear ice has drifted to the southern Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea (north of Alaska and the Lena River delta), where warm conditions are likely to exist later in the year.

We thought we’d point out to any interested WUWTers that actually warm conditions have existed in the southern Beaufort Sea and East Siberian Sea for quite some time now. However it appears as if the powers that be in WattsLand had other ideas:

Them:

Caleb says:
April 3, 2014 at 7:06 pm

RE: Tom in Denver says:
April 3, 2014 at 9:12 am

I think we need to pay less attention to 2 meter surface temperatures, and more attention to the temperature of the sea. Any time a polynya forms the sea is getting severely cooled by churning winds. Also the ice that has been moved south is going somewhere. In the case of Baffin Bay it was surging south right along the coast of Labrador and out into the Atlantic, creating above-average ice-extents in an area adjacent to the Gulf Stream.

Us:

A comment by "Snow White" visible on the "Watts Up With That" blog on April 3rd 2014

 

Surface air temperature anomaly plot for January to March 2014
Surface air temperature anomaly plot for January to March 2014

 

Them:

As of April 5th 2014 at 13:27:41 BST:

A comment by "Snow White" now invisible on the "Watts Up With That" blog on April 5th 2014
A comment by “Snow White” now invisible on the “Watts Up With That” blog on April 5th 2014

Us:

A comment by "Snow White" visible on the "Watts Up With That" blog at 16:43 BST on April 5th 2014

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Shock News! “Real Science” Censorship!

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Earlier on this morning a debate about censorship started over on the so called “Real Science” blog. Unfortunately after a couple of attempts it became clear to me that my participation was not welcome.

Them:

A question about censorship is posed on the "Real Science" blog
A question about censorship is posed on the “Real Science” blog

Meanwhile over on Twitter

Us:

Them:

 

Us:

 

Subsequently, back on “Real Science” (and possibly thanks to Dave’s intervention below)

Convincing evidence of censorship at Steve Goddard's "Real Science" blog

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!