At the beginning of September JAXA/ViSHOP extent was 4th lowest for the date in the satellite era:

For much more detail on sea ice extent for the next few weeks please see the dedicated 2024 minimum thread. However, note that as extent has been flatlining sea ice area is still declining:

The latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals that the area of thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has still not melted:

The most recent sea ice age map currently available dates from the beginning of August. Comparison with the concentration map shows that most of the remaining first year ice is highly fragmented, even close to the North Pole:

The central Arctic is currently still dominated by low pressure, but the GFS forecast suggests that high pressure will build over the next few days:

As the 2024 minimum extent approaches there will be a race between refreezing in the centre versus continued melting at the periphery. The advent of high pressure may also result in compaction of remaining low concentration areas. Which of these processes will emerge victorious?

[Update – September 5th]

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for August 2024 has just been released:

It shows that the thickest remaining sea ice is now to be found in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago rather than in the Arctic Ocean itself:

Modelled volume was 4.17 thousand km³ on August 31st, 3rd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

DMI volume remains lowest for the date in their record:

[Update – September 8th]

Following a decidedly non standard trip through the Northwest Passage, the polar class 2 cruise ship Le Commandant Charcot is now undertaking an even more unusual voyage. From Nome, Alaska to Svalbard via the North Pole:

[Update – September 9th]

Le Commandant Charcot has reached the marginal ice zone north of Alaska:

Here’s the current view from the ship’s webcam:

[Update – September 10th]

The central Arctic high didn’t quite work out as forecast, and is now sliding off towards the Fram Strait, with a modest low over the Chukchi Sea:

Plus Le Commandant Charcot’s view of the sea ice at just over 80N:

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[Update – September 11th]

Thanks to the high pressure in the vicinity, here’s a reasonably clear satellite image of the start of the refreeze at the North Pole:

However JAXA extent is still declining, and is now equal 3rd lowest for the date:

Plus Le Commandant Charcot’s view of the sea ice at around 83N:

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P.S. Here’s this evening’s (UTC) update from Le Commandant Charcot at around 84N:

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P.P.S. New ice (coloured in pink) now features on the Canadian Ice Service’s chart of the Nares Strait:

[Update – September 13th]

Evidently the sun hasn’t set in the high Arctic just yet. However it’s now a bit tricky to determine the exact location of Le Commandant Charcot from the Ponant tracking map:

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[Update – September 15th]

Do you suppose that this curious tracking map means that the Captain of Le Commandant Charcot is having some trouble locating a nice firm floe at the North Pole?

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[Update – September 16th]

Le Commandant Charcot has finally found some solid looking sea ice, not far from the North Pole:

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The tracking map is still useless for working out the ship’s position, but thanks to Niall over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum for reminding me that it has a weather station on board. That reveals Charcot’s recent position, and this OgiMet map also reveals a lot more information about the progression of the nascent Arctic refreeze:

Watch this space!