At the beginning of September JAXA/ViSHOP extent was 4th lowest for the date in the satellite era:

For much more detail on sea ice extent for the next few weeks please see the dedicated 2024 minimum thread. However, note that as extent has been flatlining sea ice area is still declining:

The latest AMSR2 sea ice concentration map from the Alfred Wegener Institute reveals that the area of thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has still not melted:

The most recent sea ice age map currently available dates from the beginning of August. Comparison with the concentration map shows that most of the remaining first year ice is highly fragmented, even close to the North Pole:

The central Arctic is currently still dominated by low pressure, but the GFS forecast suggests that high pressure will build over the next few days:

As the 2024 minimum extent approaches there will be a race between refreezing in the centre versus continued melting at the periphery. The advent of high pressure may also result in compaction of remaining low concentration areas. Which of these processes will emerge victorious?

[Update – September 5th]

The PIOMAS gridded thickness data for August 2024 has just been released:

It shows that the thickest remaining sea ice is now to be found in the Canadian Arctic Archipelago rather than in the Arctic Ocean itself:

Modelled volume was 4.17 thousand km³ on August 31st, 3rd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:

DMI volume remains lowest for the date in their record:

[Update – September 8th]

Following a decidedly non standard trip through the Northwest Passage, the polar class 2 cruise ship Le Commandant Charcot is now undertaking an even more unusual voyage. From Nome, Alaska to Svalbard via the North Pole:

[Update – September 9th]

Le Commandant Charcot has reached the marginal ice zone north of Alaska:

Here’s the current view from the ship’s webcam:

[Update – September 10th]

The central Arctic high didn’t quite work out as forecast, and is now sliding off towards the Fram Strait, with a modest low over the Chukchi Sea:

Plus Le Commandant Charcot’s view of the sea ice at just over 80N:

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[Update – September 11th]

Thanks to the high pressure in the vicinity, here’s a reasonably clear satellite image of the start of the refreeze at the North Pole:

However JAXA extent is still declining, and is now equal 3rd lowest for the date:

Plus Le Commandant Charcot’s view of the sea ice at around 83N:

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P.S. Here’s this evening’s (UTC) update from Le Commandant Charcot at around 84N:

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P.P.S. New ice (coloured in pink) now features on the Canadian Ice Service’s chart of the Nares Strait:

[Update – September 13th]

Evidently the sun hasn’t set in the high Arctic just yet. However it’s now a bit tricky to determine the exact location of Le Commandant Charcot from the Ponant tracking map:

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[Update – September 15th]

Do you suppose that this curious tracking map means that the Captain of Le Commandant Charcot is having some trouble locating a nice firm floe at the North Pole?

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[Update – September 16th]

Le Commandant Charcot has finally found some solid looking sea ice, not far from the North Pole:

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The tracking map is still useless for working out the ship’s position, but thanks to Niall over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum for reminding me that it has a weather station on board. That reveals Charcot’s recent position, and this OgiMet map also reveals a lot more information about the progression of the nascent Arctic refreeze:

[Update – September 17th]

Here’s todays update from Le Commandant Charcot’s webcam. Ponant’s own tracking map is still useless, so here once again is a map of recent temperature measurements on the Atlantic side of the high Arctic. I presume that the image was recorded somewhere near 88.5 N, 19.9 E:

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There’s much more information available over on the dedicated 2024 minimum thread, but It now looks highly likely that the 2024 Arctic sea ice minimum extent has been reached, using JAXA data at least:

A problem with SSMIS data emanating from NOAA means that several other extent metrics are still stuck on September 11th:

[Update – September 21st]

The mid-month PIOMAS gridded thickness data reveals that the 2024 minimum sea ice volume of 4.04 thousand km³ was reached on September 8th:

Here’s the associated thickness map:

Zooming in on the Parry Channel, most of the thickest sea ice in the Arctic is now in the Prince Gustaf Adolf Sea, as it moves south through the Canadian Arctic Archipelago:

Here’s how the current “oldest, thickest ice” in the Arctic looks from on high:

[Update – September 27th]

It’s time to take another look at JAXA extent:

Currently it appears to be increasing in small steps, interspersed with multi-day periods that are almost flat. Extent is currently 5th lowest for the date, but if the pattern continues it will soon drop to 3rd lowest below 2007 and 2019.

Turning next to the weather, there is currently high pressure over the central Arctic as there has been for much of September. That pattern is forecast to continue. Although there are cyclones on the periphery they cannot dislodge the high and infiltrate the Central Arctic Basin.

[Update – October 1st]

On the last day of September 2024 JAXA/ADS Arctic sea ice extent was 3rd lowest for the date (in the satellite era!):

The “refreeze” has been slow so far this year. What is more the Parry Channel is still remarkably free of sea ice. The old ice that filtered through the CAA “garlic press” into Viscount Melville Sound and Barrow Strait earlier in the month has melted away to nothing:

The discussion continues over on the October open thread.