Monthly Archives: July 2017

Pen Hadow’s Arctic Mission – To Sail to the North Pole

Arctic explorer Pen Hadow trekked, and swam, from Ward Hunt Island to the North Pole in 2003. Solo and unsupported. He plans to return to the North Pole this summer, but on this occasion he’ll be sailing with a few companions. According to yesterday’s Sunday Times:

Pen Hadow launches bittersweet mission to sail to North Pole

For his new record attempt, Hadow and his nine-strong team will take two yachts on a 3,500-mile round trip from Nome in Alaska to the pole, using satellites to find a route through the ice and avoid getting stuck. He will fly to Alaska to join his team members on Saturday.

If all goes to plan, he will arrive at the pole between August 15 and early September, about 510 miles further north than anyone has sailed before.

Although the Sunday Times failed to mention it the expedition has a web site of its own. According to the Arctic Mission “About” page:

Arctic Mission sets off from Nome in Alaska (USA) in the first week of August. The expedition team will not see land again for six weeks. We will cover about 3,500 miles by the time they return to harbour at Nome in mid-September.

Our two 50 foot yachts, Bagheera and Snow Dragon II, are specially built to sail in waters with sea ice, and the four skippers, two on each boat, are exceptionally experienced in polar seas, and with navigation and safety procedures in sea ice.

The Arctic Mission team intend to do lots of science during their attempt to reach the Pole:

Our expedition is going to explore, discover and share the stories of the spectacular marine wildlife – plants, animals and even bacteria – that lives around the North Pole. Be prepared to be surprised!

We’ll also be doing essential scientific studies and sharing this information, so that our international policy-makers can decide how best to #protect90North.

The more we explore this unexplored ocean, the better we will understand how it works, which means we can make the best decisions to protect it for the benefit of everyone for ever.

We’ve met the two yachts in question before. In 2015 Bagheera and Snow Dragon II both successfully negotiated the Northwest Passage. However this voyage will be far more difficult. During their attempt to sail to the North Pole in the summer of 2013 Sébastian Roubinet and Vincent Berthet had to be rescued by the Russian icebreaker Admiral Makarov when the Central Arctic refreeze set in earlier than originally anticipated. Unlike the ice skating catamaran Babouchka, Bagheera and Snow Dragon II both have engines which will certainly help avoiding a similar fate. In addition perhaps the sea ice in the Arctic is less of an obstacle than it was in 2013? In an interview with the BBC World Service on Sunday Pen pointed out that:

Now 40% of the international waters around the North Pole, what we call the Central Arctic Ocean, are open water in the summer time.

When asked:

Do you think you’ll actually achieve this goal then?

Pen replied:

I think it’s quite possible, with the assistance of a US agency that have satellites that are going to be helping us each day pick the best route through these ever narrowing cracks, and it’s quite possible that we’ll reach the North Geographic Pole.

I also trust that the Arctic Mission team will be keeping a close eye on the Arctic weather forecast over the next month or so. Last August the crew of the yacht Northabout feared for their lives when caught in an Arctic cyclone in a sheltered anchorage on the Northern Sea Route. There is no such safe haven anywhere near the North Pole.

Pen concluded his BBC interview as follows:

If we can produce a visual image of a sail boat at 90 degrees north I think that could become an iconic image of the challenge that the twenty-first century faces. Are we serious about running this planet, which is actually what we need to start doing, and it’s biophysical resources on a sustainable basis, or are we just here for a laugh?

We wish him and the Arctic Mission team well. Watch this space for further updates, and possibly that iconic visual image! Meanwhile here’s a picture of Bagheera in the Northwest Passage in 2015:

BagheeraMastNWP2015

plus an image from the Sentinel 1B satellite of the current state of the Arctic sea ice on the direct route from Nome to the North Pole:

Sentinel 1B image of Arctic sea ice at 86N, 180W
Sentinel 1B image of Arctic sea ice at 86N, 180W on July 24th 2017

There don’t seem to be many “narrow cracks” just yet.

 

[Edit – August 9th]

The Arctic Mission team have a new blog! In the latest post Pen Hadow says:

[This] brings us to the summer of 2016, and an idea I was mulling over. A rather Big Idea. Had the deterioration of the Arctic sea ice got to a point where switching from Spring-time sledge-hauling to Summer-time sailing was appropriate? In my solo journey from northern Canada to the North Geographic Pole in 2003, I had spent over 30 hours swimming open water stretches, out of the total 850 hours spent hauling my sledge while walking on skis across the sea ice. It had dawned on me then that global warming was the likely cause of so much open water. Since then, it has become highly unlikely that the ski route from northern Russia to the Pole will be done again, due to the absence of sea ice for most of the year off the Severnaya Zemlya island group. And the other classic route from northern Canada no longer has an aircraft operation to provide the necessary support for sea ice expeditions, due to the worsening quality of the sea ice. Both routes have now been lost to the Arctic Ocean’s fast-changing environment. And with this change, the Arctic Ocean with its hitherto frozen summer surface is now rapidly becoming open-access to surface vessels for the first time in human history.

Would it be possible to sail a small yacht to the Pole? Could that create a useful platform to share the unfolding situation with a global audience? Might this be the best way I could focus world attention on the merit of creating a new marine reserve in the international waters surrounding the North Pole?

It looks like we’re just about to find out the answer to those questions. The team have also announced another livestream from Nome, Alaska. This one is scheduled for 8 PM BST tomorrow, Thursday August 10th. They say:

Ahead of our Friday departure (weather permitting – there’s a nasty storm brewing over the Bering Strait that may prove problematic) we’d love to introduce you to the Arctic Mission team.

This is probably what they are referring to:

Significant_height_of_combined_w in multi_1.nww3.20170809-t12z_00027

A bumpy ride for Pen Hadow et al. is in store on Saturday, and some big waves for Utqiaġvik (Barrow as was) as well.

 

[Edit – August 13th]

An overly brief and (hence?) rather misleading article in the Sunday Times today. According to Jonathan Leake:

Sailing to North Pole will have to wait

Pen Hadow, the British explorer, is today due to start a sailing expedition across the Arctic Ocean to highlight the effects of climate change, including an attempt to reach the North Pole.

Scientists warned, though, that despite the rapid melting of the ice there was unlikely to be access to the North Pole via open water for some years.

Professor Mark Serreze, director of America’s National Snow and Ice Data Centre, said the North Pole was still surrounded by nearly 800 miles of solid pack ice as of last week.

Jonathan appears not to have a particularly good grasp of sea ice (thermo)dynamics during the latter stages of the summer melting season!

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the North Pole on August 13th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the North Pole on August 13th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

Whilst waiting for the waves in the Bering Strait to die down Conor McDonnell, Arctic Mission’s photographer, has recorded a video from the top of Bagheera’s mast, amongst other places:

 

[Edit – August 14th]

According to Pen Hadow Bagheera and Snow Dragon II will set sail in the small hours of tomorrow morning (UTC):

We have also been promised live tracking real soon now:

 

[Edit – August 15th]

The Arctic Mission live tracking map is operational at last. Here is what it reveals so far:

ArcticMission-20170815-0600

It looks as though Bagheera and Snow Dragon II left Nome on their voyage of discovery at 06:00 UTC this morning.

 

[Edit – August 18th]

Point Hope is now behind the Arctic Mission team:

ArcticMission-20170818-1000

Next is Point Lay. Much further north, there are significant gaps appearing in the sea ice up to around 83N:

NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Central Arctic north of the Beaufort Sea on August 18th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “false-color” image of the Central Arctic north of the Beaufort Sea on August 18th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

 

[Edit – August 19th]

Bagheera and Snow Dragon II are obviously not heading for the Northwest Passage in 2017!

ArcticMission-20170819-1200

Plus further to a conversation on Twitter:

 

[Edit – August 21st]

Bagheera and Snow Dragon II are still heading due north:

ArcticMission-20170821-0800

They stopped for a few hours yesterday to perform their first round of scientific experiments:

ArcticMission-Science-20170820

 

[Edit – August 21st PM]

The Arctic Mission team passed 75 degrees north this evening (UTC):

ArcticMission-20170821-2200

 

[Edit – August 22nd]

On the phone from the Central Arctic Pen Hadow reports that the Arctic Mission team are now in amongst significant amounts of sea ice.

Here’s a picture of the first piece they spotted:

ArcticMission-1stIce

The location was recorded as 75 27N 162 46W.

 

[Edit – August 23rd]

Bagheera and Snow Dragon II are continuing to slowly move north along the west side of the Northwind Ridge:

ArcticMission-20170823-1000

The Sentinel 1B satellite took a (not terribly clear) snap of the area yesterday evening (UTC):

S1B_ArcticMission_20170822T1810

 

[Edit – August 24th]

The Arctic Mission team are still following the Northwind Ridge towards the abyss of the Amerasian Basin:

ArcticMission-20170824-2000

 

[Edit – August 25th]

Bagheera and Snow Dragon II are currently taking a more easterly course, but have nonetheless inched past 78N:

ArcticMission-20170825-2000

 

[Edit – August 26th]

 

[Edit – August 29th]

Here’s the latest AMSR2 extent map based on a 60% concentration threshold:

20170828-60-ext

It looks as though the Arctic Mission team are heading east into the heart of the “Beaufort Bite” at around 142 degrees west:

ArcticMission-20170829-0800

 

[Edit – August 29th PM]

Bagheera and Snow Dragon II have breached the 80 degrees north barrier:

ArcticMission-20170829-1600

 

[Edit – August 31st]

As angech points out below Pen Hadow has announced that:

Arctic Mission’s furthest North was 80 degrees 10 minutes North, 148 degrees 51 minutes West, reached at 22:04:12 (Alaskan Time, GMT-9hours) on 29 August 2017 by yachts, Bagheera and Snow Dragon II.

Arctic Mission moored its yachts to an ice floe on 29 August to conduct one of its 24-hour marine science surveys, while drifting with the sea ice. The strategy for any future northward progress had been to monitor the sea surface currents, sea ice, and weather conditions (both observed from the yachts and through satellites imagery downloaded onto our computers), and decide how to proceed as we approached the end of the 24-hour survey.

A meeting of the four skippers was held led by Erik de Jong, with Pen Hadow present, and it was agreed further northward progress would increase considerably the risks to the expedition, with very limited scientific reward. The decision to head south, back to an area of less concentrated sea ice in the vicinity of 79 degrees 30 minutes North, was made at 18.30 (Alaskan time).

Here’s the live tracking map from 06:00 UTC this morning:

ArcticMission-20170831-0600

A prudent and not unexpected decision. Cue the cackling from all the usual suspects?

 

[Edit – August 31st]

The cackling from all the usual suspects has indeed begun. It has even inspired a somewhat surreal modern art installation! Meanwhile according to their Twitter feed:

The live tracking map confirms that, but the team don’t appear to be in any desperate rush to return to Nome.

ArcticMission-20170902-0800

 

[Edit – September 10th]

Bagheera and Snow Dragon II have made it safely back to Nome:

Arctic-Mission-2017-09-10

Here’s the last image beamed back from the Bering Sea:

Bering-2017-09-09

Their last message whilst still at sea informs us that:

Once we get our land-legs back, we’ll schedule a Facebook Live. We look forward to talking to you all!

The Northwest Passage in 2017

The time has come to start speculating about if, and when, the Northwest Passage will become navigable for the host of small vessels eager to traverse it this summer. The west and east entrances are clearing early this year. Lancaster Sound and Prince Regent inlet already reveal only a few area of white amongst the deep blue open water:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of Lancaster Sound and Prince Regent Inlet on July 8th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of Lancaster Sound and Prince Regent Inlet on July 8th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

To the west the route is already opening up all the way from the Chukchi Sea to Cambridge Bay:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on July 12th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Beaufort Sea on July 12th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

The problems on the southern route seem likely to arise in the central section this year, where far more old ice is present this year than in 2016:

Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development on July 10th 2017
Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development on July 10th 2017

The remaining sea ice in Queen Maud Gulf doesn’t look like it will last long, but the ice in Victoria Strait and Larsen Sound is made of much sterner stuff:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of Victoria Strait and Larsen Sound on July 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of Victoria Strait and Larsen Sound on July 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Terra satellite

The cruise liner Crystal Serenity is anticipating navigating those waters once again this year, on August 29th. However much smaller craft are already heading for the Northwest Passage. Celebrate and Alkahest are already sailing north along the west coast of Greenland. Meanwhile Yvan Bourgnon is due to depart Nome, Alaska tomorrow, sailing his catamaran single handed in the opposite direction.

 

[Edit – July 22nd]

According to the United States Coast Guard web site:

The crew of the Coast Guard Cutter Maple, a 225-foot seagoing buoy tender home ported in Sitka, Alaska, departed [July 12th] on a historic voyage through the Northwest Passage.

This summer marks the 60th anniversary of the three Coast Guard cutters and one Canadian ship that convoyed through the Northwest Passage. The crews of the U.S. Coast Guard Cutters Storis, SPAR and Bramble, along with the crew of the Canadian ice breaker HMCS Labrador, charted, recorded water depths and installed aids to navigation for future shipping lanes from May to September of 1957. All four crews became the first deep-draft ships to sail through the Northwest Passage, which are several passageways through the complex archipelago of the Canadian Arctic.

The crew of the cutter Maple will make a brief logistics stop in Nome, Alaska, to embark an ice navigator on its way to support marine science and scientific research near the Arctic Circle. The cutter will serve as a ship of opportunity to conduct scientific research in support of the Scripps Institution of Oceanography.

The Maple crew will deploy three sonographic buoys that are used to record acoustic sounds of marine mammals. A principal investigator with the University of San Diego embarked aboard the cutter will analyze the data retrieved from the buoys.

The Canadian Coast Guard Ship Sir Wilfrid Laurier will rendezvous with the Maple later this month to provide icebreaking services as the Maple makes it way toward Victoria Strait, Canada. The Maple has a reinforced hull that provides it with limited ice breaking capabilities similar to Coast Guard 225-foot cutters operating on the Great Lakes.

There doesn’t seem to be any up to date tracking information for the Maple, but CCGS Sir Wilfrid Laurier has recently arrived off Utqiaġvik (Barrow as was):

WilfridLaurier-20170722

 

[Edit – August 18th]

Another article by Chris Mooney in the Washington Post includes this image of the eastern entrance to Bellot Strait on August 11th:

According to Chris:

After we’d passed through safely, Claude Lafrance, the ship’s commanding officer, took some time to explain how the strait worked with the help of a navigational chart. In the process, he lent credence to some of the observations made by Larsen over 70 years ago, while also explaining how modern knowledge has made navigating it safe with a proper tidal understanding.

The essence is that depending on when you are in Bellot Strait, the waters can be flowing either westward or eastward at and around high or low tide, respectively. So timing your crossing makes a great deal of difference.

The danger is that if you’re coming from the west (as we were) with the current to your back, you can be moving too fast, and have difficulty steering your vessel as you approach rocks at the end of the strait.

“We always want to go through where it’s more difficult, with the current against you, because it’s a lot easier to control the movement of your ship,” Lafrance said.

Therefore, the two-hour wait was quite intentional: The CCGS Amundsen stayed put until the tide began to shift and the waters to flow back westward, in effect neutralizing the current. Then the ship steamed out easily. “We just passed at the ideal time to go through,” Lafrance said.

 

[Edit – August 20th]

Another view of Bellot Strait, this time from Ernest Shackleton yesterday:

Shackleton_20170819_2103

Here’s Sentinel 2A’s view of what he should expect to see in Larsen Sound after emerging at the other end:

Larsen-S2A-20170819

 

[Edit – August 21st]

From the RRS Ernest Shackleton in Franklin Strait or thereabouts:

Shackleton_20170820_1003-1024

 

[Edit – August 22nd]

From the C3 expedition, also in the Franklin Strait area by the look of things:

 

[Edit – August 24th]

The latest CIS ice chart reveals a circuitous route via McClintock Channel that is ALMOST <= 6/10 concentration. Meanwhile Larsen Sound is still refusing to open up for the imminent arrival of the Crystal Serenity:

Maud-Conc-20170824

 

[Edit – August 27th]

At long last the CIS concentration map reveals a <= 6/10 concentration path along the entire southern route via Bellot Strait:

Maud-Conc-20170827

 

[Edit – August 29th]

It is now possible to squeeze through Roald Amundsen’s route through the Northwest Passage without encountering over 6/10 concentration sea ice:

Parry-SoD-20170829

Maud-SoD-20170829

Coincidentally Amundsen’s Maud has started the long journey back to Norway from Cambridge Bay. Thanks to Matthew for the heads up

 

[Edit – September 3rd]

David Scott Cowper sought shelter for Polar Bound in the welcoming arms of Booth Island for a couple of days. Now they’re off again and have taken another close look at Cape Bathurst, but which route will they take now?

PolarBound-20170903-0732

 

[Edit – September 10th]

David Scott Cowper has left Cambridge Bay in Polar Bound and is heading east:

PolarBound-2017-09-10_2316

here’s what lies ahead of him:

Maud-Conc-20170910

Watch this space!

Reanalysis of Arctic Climate

For years now I’ve been using the convenient tools provided at the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis web site to generate custom maps and time series illustrating the climate of the Arctic. By way of example see last December’s “Post-Truth Global and Arctic Temperatures“:

Prompted in part by the obvious difficulty the different models are currently having in generating accurate short term forecasts for the “New Arctic”, I’ve been recently been comparing assorted reanalysis products. For example the UCAR Climate Data Guide points out that:

NCEP Reanalysis (R2) is better than NCEP-NCAR (R1) but still a first generation reanalysis. It is best to use 3rd generation reanalyses, specifically, ERA-Interim and MERRA.

I recently discovered that Richard James has performed a similar analysis for the Arctic, which can be viewed at:

Arctic Winter Warmth

wherein I mentioned the NOAA ESRL Web-based Reanalysis Intercomparison Tool, which allows you to produce plots and timeseries for arbitrary areas of Planet Earth using NCEP/NCAR, ERA Interim, MERRA-2 and numerous other reanalysis products. Here’s one little example:

NCEPr1-ERA-T2m

which makes it evident that NCEP-NCAR (R1) and ERA Interim have different ideas about surface temperatures in the Arctic. So does MERRA-2!

MERRA2-ERA-T2m

For a graphic example of the differences between the three products here is my version of Richard’s Arctic winter temperature comparison (note that currently ERA data is only available up to January 2017):

NCEPr1-T2-Oct-Jan-2017

MERRA-T2-Oct-Jan-2017

Era-T2-Oct-Jan-2017

Can you spot the difference? In conclusion, here’s the Era Interim version of the High Arctic autumnal 925 hPa temperature trend graph at the top:

ERA-SON-80N-T925