I’m opening the 2025 Northwest Passage thread earlier than usual, because of some news you can read if you scroll down. However, let’s first of all get our bearings with the help of this map of the area:

and another map detailing the routes through Canadian Arctic Archipelago that have previously been successfully traversed:

The news I was referring to is that at lunchtime today Ella Hibbert is setting off in her yacht Yeva from Haslar Marina near Portsmouth in southern England for a rather unusual voyage through the Northwest Passage this summer. Here is Ella’s current route plan:

You will note some unusual features. Apparently Ella is intent on taking Route 1 into the Beaufort Sea via McClure Strait. After that she is not heading for the Bering Strait, but is instead taking the route less travelled back to Haslar via the Northern Sea Route. Perhaps even more surprising in this day and age is that Ella has received permission to sail through Russian waters without an ice pilot. She is aiming to complete an entire circumnavigation of the Arctic in a single summer single handed! As Ella puts it, this is “A voyage that should not be possible”:

Ella is hoping to overcome terrifying challenges including icebergs, freezing water and polar bears.

Her journey – which has only recently become possible due to melting polar ice caps – aims to showcase the devastating environmental impact of sea ice decline, both in the Arctic and across the world.

Ella’s voyage also aims to support two charities working tirelessly to protect the Arctic: Polar Bears International and the Ocean Conservancy.

At the end of her voyage, Ella will auction her ship Yeva with proceeds to go to these two charities.

Here is Ella’s interview with BBC Environment Correspondent Jonah Fisher on BBC Breakfast yesterday morning

P.S. Here’s Yeva’s tracking map at 12:30 UTC:

But what are Ella’s chances of successfully completing her arduous voyage? To get a feel for what might happen in the icy waters of the Canadian Arctic Archipelago during the coming melting season let’s take a look at the Canadian Ice Service‘s “stage of development” charts. Here’s the most recent one, from May 19th:

All of the assorted routes along the Northwest Passage are currently clear of multi-year ice except for Route 1 through McClure Strait, where there is currently a patch of open water.

Next let’s also try and check the thickness of the ice along those routes. Here is the latest available “reanalysed” merged CryoSat-2/SMOS thickness map for the Canadian Arctic Archipelago :

There is no thick ice along any of the accepted routes, although Le Commandant Charcot may come across some if he explores Byam Martin Channel again this summer.

In addition the snow has been melting along the valley of the Mackenzie River. The resulting increased flow at the mouth of the delta has just begun to flood the fast ice, which has started to break up:

The signs are that the Northwest Passage will open earlier than “normal” this year, but as always everything depends on the forthcoming summer weather.