At the beginning of last month JAXA/ViSHOP extent was third lowest for the date in the satellite era. With the date of the 2025 minimum extent rapidly approaching that is no longer the case:
Whilst JAXA extent is now 10th lowest, PIOMAS volume remains second lowest for the date:
Here’s the associated thickness map. Note the change of scale from last month
Compare and contrast that map with the AWI’s sea ice concentration map, particularly in the Beaufort Sea area:
Also compare those two with the NSIDC’s MASIE extent map:
For a fourth opinion on where sea ice cover remains in the Beaufort Sea, see also the the Canadian Ice Service‘s latest concentration chart:
Evidently the choice of satellite sensors and data processing algorithms can result in a big difference in the calculated sea ice extent!
The pale pink areas on another CIS chart, this time showing the ice “stage of development”, reveal that the refreeze has begun in the Nares Strait and Nansen Sound:
Of course at lower latitudes the ice is still melting, including in the Beaufort Sea.
[Update – September 9th]
The MSLP of the persistent low pressure area discussed in the comments is back down to 983 hPa:
It’s currently forecast to slowly fill in over the next few days.
[Update – September 24th]
I return from my summer break to discover much clamour in the GWC moderation queue for the following information! According to the National Snow and Ice Data Center:
On September 10, Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent of 4.60 million square kilometers. The 2025 minimum shares the tenth lowest spot in the nearly 47-year satellite record with 2008 and 2010. While the last 19 years, from 2007 to 2025, are the lowest 19 sea ice extents in the satellite record, there has been no significant trend in September minimum extents over this time. As announced earlier, the minimum is based on Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer 2 (AMSR2) data from the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA):
This year’s minimum extent, based on a 5-day average, appears to have been set on September 10. It is 1.21 million square kilometers above the satellite-era record minimum extent of 3.39 million square kilometers, which occurred on September 17, 2012. It is also 1.62 million square kilometers below the 1981 to 2010 average minimum extent, which is equivalent to about the loss in size of Alaska.
The overall, downward trend in the minimum extent from 1979 to 2025 is 12.1 percent per decade relative to the 1981 to 2010 average. From the linear trend, the loss of sea ice is about 74,000 square kilometers per year, equivalent to losing the state of South Dakota or the country of Austria annually.
This overall trend should be viewed with the caveat that there has been no significant downward trend in September minimum extents over the past two decades. Causes for this flattening trend are a matter of active debate in the Arctic science community.
Watch this space!
17 thoughts on “Facts About the Arctic in September 2025”
Extent is still quite high,to say that the Volume is so low.. we must be heading for a record in regards ice “thiness”!
This tends to happen lately; when sea ice on either pole nears minimum, there’s a “fanning out” which looks undramatic in terms of extent numbers. But in reality, this fanning out is a recipe for faster meltout, due to a larger ice surface contact area with the elements.
Hi Jim!
This Wrangel Island LP (storm) is a very interesting event going forward, considering the state of the long, thin sea ice arm of the Wrangel Island Arm.
I think a certain account on the Forum would dub it a potential ‘flamethrower’ or some such. Ice area could plummet, very fast. Bonus cliché: ‘GAC’ – for Great Arctic Cyclone.
User ‘binntho’ has some interesting tidings about the ‘GAC’ cyclone:
The ESS arm is looking increasingly fragile!
Nullschool has some interesting weather in the next day or two, with a vigorous cyclone literally centered on the shoulder of the arm, pulling strong easterly winds from Siberia to pummel the arm on the western side at speeds of up to 40 km/h which counts as a strong breeze on the Beaufort scale, “Large waves begin to form; the white foam crests are more extensive everywhere; probably some spray”. Another effect of these winds is to push the ice to the south-east, leading to more dispersion (winds will push ice to the right by some 30 degrees from the direction of the wind if I remember correctly, please correct me if I am wrong!)
But the cyclone is also pulling strong southerly winds over the open areas in the Beufort and hitting the ice with winds of up to and even above 50 km/h, near gale-force, “Sea heaps up and white foam from breaking waves begins to be blown in streaks along the direction of the wind; spindrift begins to be seen”.
Looking further, Nullschool has the cyclone moving into the center of the CAB, continuing to pull warm and strong winds from Siberia to pummel the ESS arm but also restarting the southerlies over the Atlantic front.
Temperatures may be getting close to the -11C anectdotal limit for refreeze to start, but not quite there yet according to Nullschool. Of more interest is the persistance and deepening of the cyclone, GFS has it dropping to 970 hPa by Wednesday before dissipating by next weekend. According to GFS, the cyclone pulls some cold air in from Canada and is starting to show end-of-season temperatures in the new year (i.e. Ethiopian new year, we are looking forward to 2018!).
‘Greenbelt’ breathes new life into the vision of a great GAC blow-torch for the remaining ice:
GFS operational now has a 966mb hurricane near the Siberian coast in 144 hours. EC has similar theme though not as radical. That might push ice into the Atlantic, increasing extent! But I think the wave energy would definitely melt ice.
Verily. You are so right.
Oh well, at least now we’re free to excite, or not, without our heart pounding for Yeva and how she’d survive in those waves & winds.
Might’ve been too much excitement, to be quite honest.
a University of Exeter study titled “Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years” was published on 16 August 2025 in Geophysical Research Letters science journal. It stated: “Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005”. The study found this was true for all months.
Loss of Arctic sea ice since 2005 (20 years) was greater than the loss from 1979 to 2005 (25 years).
So if the melting speeds up, and the melt is even bigger over the latest 20 years than the 25 years prior, in total (cumulatively), should we really be talking about a “pause” in sea ice loss? Sounds to me like we’re speeding up.
So no pause, but a strong urge to say the word ‘Pause’ in peer-reviewed scientific papers.
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Extent is still quite high,to say that the Volume is so low.. we must be heading for a record in regards ice “thiness”!
This tends to happen lately; when sea ice on either pole nears minimum, there’s a “fanning out” which looks undramatic in terms of extent numbers. But in reality, this fanning out is a recipe for faster meltout, due to a larger ice surface contact area with the elements.
Odds are 5th or lower by October 1st (extent)
AMSR2 compaction has gone from a record high in the middle of August to near the lows for date now:
2016 is still the standout year in that department.
Hi Jim!
This Wrangel Island LP (storm) is a very interesting event going forward, considering the state of the long, thin sea ice arm of the Wrangel Island Arm.
I think a certain account on the Forum would dub it a potential ‘flamethrower’ or some such. Ice area could plummet, very fast. Bonus cliché: ‘GAC’ – for Great Arctic Cyclone.
User ‘binntho’ has some interesting tidings about the ‘GAC’ cyclone:
What an end to the 2025 Melt Season!
The current cyclone bottomed out at 983 hPa at 18Z yesterday according to both GFS and the CMC:
This morning’s GFS run doesn’t show it going any lower. I’ll believe in the mythical GAC 2025 when I see it!
‘Greenbelt’ breathes new life into the vision of a great GAC blow-torch for the remaining ice:
One to follow, for sure.
Here’s that chart:
The next run has it at a mere 977 hPa:
Perhaps it would be prudent to wait until things stabilise from one run to the next before getting overly excited?
NSIDC area at a new low for the year 2.760!
I think 4 of the last 6 years have dipped below 2019 by that metric.
Verily. You are so right.
Oh well, at least now we’re free to excite, or not, without our heart pounding for Yeva and how she’d survive in those waves & winds.
Might’ve been too much excitement, to be quite honest.
a University of Exeter study titled “Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years” was published on 16 August 2025 in Geophysical Research Letters science journal. It stated: “Over the past two decades, Arctic sea ice loss has slowed considerably, with no statistically significant decline in September sea ice area since 2005”. The study found this was true for all months.
The paper was actually entitled “Minimal Arctic Sea Ice Loss in the Last 20 Years, Consistent With Internal Climate Variability”
Have you read it? I ask in part because you neglected to mention the other “key points”:
Loss of Arctic sea ice since 2005 (20 years) was greater than the loss from 1979 to 2005 (25 years).
So if the melting speeds up, and the melt is even bigger over the latest 20 years than the 25 years prior, in total (cumulatively), should we really be talking about a “pause” in sea ice loss? Sounds to me like we’re speeding up.
So no pause, but a strong urge to say the word ‘Pause’ in peer-reviewed scientific papers.
Since both NASA and NSIDC have now declared a minimum extent for 2025, it would be appropriate for you to write an update, no?
“Loss of Arctic sea ice since 2005 (20 years) was greater than the loss from 1979 to 2005 (25 years).”.
The frightening thing is that Jim and going south believe this. I really see no hope for western civilisation.
I assume that GS was referring to NSIDC annual minimum extent. Here’s a visualisation of the data:
Apparently you prefer annual averages? Here’s a visualisation of that data too:
There’s a few more days left in September 2025, so this year’s number will inevitably end up as lowest in the satellite era
Nice graph, would be interesting to see one of volume when we have the data in!