The Laptev and East Siberian Seas have now refrozen. Consequently Arctic sea ice extent is now increasing more slowly, and JAXA/ViSHOP extent is 3rd lowest for the date in the satellite era:
Introducing the third dimension, here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness data for the end of October 2024:
Note the change in scale from previous months, to allow for easier comparison with the “near real time” CryoSat-2/SMOS merged thickness data from the Alfred Wegener Institute:
On October 31st Arctic sea ice volume had increased to 6.33 thousand km³, 2nd lowest for the date in the PIOMAS record:
CryoSat-2/SMOS volume is also currently 2nd lowest for the date, although likely to be revised upwards slightly when the reanalysed data is released in a few weeks time:
DMI modelled Arctic sea ice volume is still lowest for the date in the satellite era. Here’s the latest daily graph:
Plus the monthly graph for October:
Finally, for the moment at least, here is the map of sea ice age at the beginning of October:
According to the October edition of the National Snow and Ice Data Center’s “Sea Ice Today” analysis:
Average Arctic sea ice extent for the month of October was 5.94 million square kilometers, fourth lowest in the 46-year-satellite record and 610,000 square kilometers higher than 2020, the record low extent for the month. Sea ice extent is particularly low in the Barents and Kara Seas, and in the Beaufort Sea, Baffin Bay, and the Canadian Archipelago. Elsewhere, the extent was near average with the ice reaching the Russian coast everywhere east of the Kara Sea.
During October, much of the Arctic was markedly warmer than average. Air temperatures at the 925 hPa level (approximately 2,500 feet above the surface) were 6 to 10 to degrees Celsius above average near the pole and north of Greenland and the Canadian Archipelago. Much of the rest of the Arctic was at least 2 degrees Celsius above average, with the exception of the coastal areas of the Chukchi, East Siberian, and Laptev Seas, where average temperatures prevailed.
Sea level pressure was low over most of the Arctic during October with distinct lows centered over the Gulf of Alaska, the Canadian Archipelago, and Svalbard. This pressure pattern helped to push ice northwards in the Kara and Barents Seas and bring in warmer air towards the central Arctic Ocean:
The Danish Meteorological Institute’s high Arctic temperature data confirms the unprecedented warmth north of 80°:
There’s still high pressure over the Central Arctic, but on the Atlantic periphery the latest GFS forecast predicts a cyclone with a minimum mean sea level pressure of 956 hPa over the Fram Strait on Wednesday:
The forecast includes large waves in the Norwegian and Barents Seas, and a long period swell directed at the ice edge in the Fram Strait:
In other news the nuclear powered icebreaker Sibir is passing the New Siberian Islands, leading what is probably the last west bound convoy on the Northern Sea Route this year:
Sea ice is now forming at Nome, Alaska:
The National Weather Service chart of sea ice concentration around Alaska shows the coastal freeze up has begun further south too:
The mid month CryoSat-2/SMOS volume is still 2nd lowest for the date, although it looks as though that will change soon:
Here’s the associated sea ice thickness map, using an experimental set of colours. Which do you prefer?
Watch this space!