At the beginning of July JAXA/ViSHOP Arctic sea ice extent is still “lowest for the date” in their record going back to 1979:
The PIOMAS sea ice thickness map for June 30th reveals that the previously thick ice in the Chukchi Sea has been noticeably thinning:
The associated volume graph shows that the 2025 curve has entered the pack of other recent years. and is now 4th lowest for the date:
In an all too brief reprieve for the NSIDC’s sea ice index, they have announced that their feed of SSMIS data will continue for another month:
Meanwhile the OSI SAF sent out an email today that reads as follows:
As an alternative to the OSI SAF sea ice concentration interim climate data record (SIC ICDR, OSI-430-a) based on SSMIS data, the OSI SAF sea ice team is preparing an equivalent ICDR based on AMSR2 data. This product, currently under development, is labelled OSI-438. This ICDR is based on the same processing chain as the existing AMSR2 climate data record (CDR, OSI-458), and some details of OSI-438 are available here:
https://osi-saf.eumetsat.int/products/osi-438
A processing chain has been set up for OSI-438, and is currently producing daily SIC ICDR product files for the northern and southern hemispheres, in the same projection and resolution as OSI-430 (EASE2 grid, 25km resolution). As for OSI-430-a, this includes nominal ICDR files with 16 days delay and fasttrack ICDR files with 2 days delay. OSI-438 has not been through the nominal validation and reviewing process yet, but due to the situation with SSMIS data coming to an end soon, we would like to make it available to users as a demonstrational product now that we find it mature enough for sharing. The product will become operational when validation and review is passed this autumn. During the demonstrational phase the product files are generated in our operational environment and will be made available on a best-effort basis. The production and product files might be updated if necessary. Any feedback on the products is very welcome.
Finally, for the moment at least, the Tara Polar Station has left Longyearbyen and his northwards for a rendezvous with German icebreaker Polarstern before heading into the sea ice pack:
Watch this space!
“Note: With the end of SSMI/S data processing now scheduled for the end of July, we will need to change our source of sea ice concentration data that is assimilated into PIOMAS. We are still evaluating options. There is likely to be a data gap to occur.”
What that last sentence means is, PIOMAS will most likely not provide any sea ice volume numbers for August 2025, and possibly also for September/October.
In other words, should the Arctic go record low this summer, then no one will know. I bet that decision by the PIOMAS team will be popular over at 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.