Some Sceptical Questions

With the able assistance of some of the regular readers of Steve Goddard’s so called “Real Science” blog I have drawn up a checklist of questions to answer should you (or any “sceptics” you may be aware of) be suffering from the delusion that the sea ice in the Arctic is “recovering” or “rebounding”:

Us:

1. Is the NSIDC daily Arctic sea ice extent number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

2. Is the Cryosphere Today Arctic sea ice area number for March 8th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

3. Is the IJIS Arctic sea ice extent number for March 9th 2014 the lowest on record for that day of the year? Yes or No?

4. What credible evidence can you provide to show that “The Arctic is getting colder”?

5. In what way has the NSIDC’s data been “contaminated by Mann”?

6. Where might one find “empirical data that hasn’t been contaminated” if not from the likes of NOAA/NASA/JAXA et. al.

7. How do you define “The Arctic”? [2014-3-12 16:53]

8. How much sea ice do you suppose will be left in the Gulf of St. Lawrence by September? [2014-3-12 20:26]

9. Which version of “the [thickness/volume] truth” do you choose to believe? [2014-3-14 09:30]

10. When was it that the DMI “changed the way they read/interrupt coastal features [which] they incorporated into their extent/area numbers”? [2014-3-15 15:08]

11. Why have we been accused of “a lie” and “put on ignore”? [2014-3-16 15:12]

12. Please be so good as to provide us with a link that describes “the modeling used by NSIDC to ‘create’ these numbers” [2014-3-20 13:00]

ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

No reply to any seven eight nine ten eleven of those questions as yet.

Them:

In answer to question 7 Steve Goddard “says”

NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014
NSIDC visualisation of Arctic sea ice daily extent for March 10th 2014

Then a “Real Scientist” asks a sensible question:

Do NSIDC and DMI define the Arctic differently? If so, by how much?

Us:

We say:

1. Yes Dave.

2. Here’s a clue:

OSI Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014
OSI-SAF Arctic sea ice concentration for March 11th 2014

We’ll keep you posted!

9 thoughts on “Some Sceptical Questions

    1. Thanks for your comment. Please see questions 1-3 and 8 above.

      Please also note that the Central Arctic Basin is currently suffering from a significant negative area anomaly, despite the proximity to the 2014 maximum area/extent:

      Central Arctic Basin area anomaly on March 11th 2014

  1. Is Goddard including the UK and Portugal in his definition of the Arctic?

    Or is he using the orange line?

    So confusing….

    1. Hi Dazed,

      It seems to me his definition of “The Arctic” changes from one moment to the next, although your mileage may vary of course.

      In one single thread he seems to be “saying” that he is mixing and matching the NSIDC and DMI/OSI domains. Perhaps he doesn’t understand the difference? As far as I’m aware neither includes the UK and Portugal!

  2. 1. No – 14,609,000 (2011)
    2. Yes
    3. No – 14,041,807 (2006)
    4. It’s not. Until reservoir of thicker ice builds in the western arctic basin (next 3-5 years) it will likely remain at temperatures seen over the prior decade after which they will decline back to levels of the 1990’s. Until there’s a phase change in the AMO from its current warm phase to a cold phase (15-20 years) we likely won’t see colder temperatures in the arctic like those of the 60s and 70s until then.
    5. This is a trick question. Next.
    6. Contaminated in what way? Post-altered??
    7. I define the arctic as the area north of the arctic circle, as that’s what it is. But a bit more specifically I tend to keep the arctic confined to the arctic basin and adjacent land areas and include the Greenland and Barents Sea within the Atlantic basin.
    8. None, the Gulf of St.Lawrence melts out every year.

    1. Hi Tom,

      Thanks for all your input, although the name of the game is actually to discover Steve Goddard’s answers! At this moment in time we have received 1 out of 8. A question for you if I may. Would you say 1-3 are credible evidence for an Arctic sea ice “recovery”?

      1. Daily NSIDC number was 14,526,820 on March 8th 2014. See:
      ftp://sidads.colorado.edu/DATASETS/NOAA/G02135/north/daily/data/NH_seaice_extent_nrt.csv

      2. Agreed!

      3. Agreed after your amendment! Q1-3 were the latest available numbers when I posed those questions in another place.

      4 – 6 Require more context for you to be able to understand the questions. Scroll to the bottom of: http://archive.is/AZi0Y

      7. However the assorted “Arctic sea ice extent” metrics each incorporate a variety of differing areas south of the Arctic circle. The state of the CAB in September is the acid test.

      8. Agreed! See mpalmer’s link for context.

  3. By the weekend, however, 2014 (IJIS) should be ahead of:
    2004
    2005
    2006
    2007
    2009
    2011
    2013

    But this is just the nature of the ice edge this time of year.

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