Tag Archives: Al Gore

The Science of the David Rose “Climate of Hate” Self-Interview

Temperature, , , , , , , , , ,

Much like yesterday I was idly browsing my Twitter feed this morning whilst simultaneously consuming my habitual Sunday coffee + BLT when news reached me that David Rose had published yet another article in the Mail on Sunday that purports to investigate “climate science”:


 

Here it is:

“Climate of Hate: His children are urged to kill him, he’s compared to Adolf Hitler and labelled a ‘denier’ – even though he’s Jewish. Disturbing article reveals what happens if you dare to doubt the Green prophets of doom”

Perhaps due to all our sterling work here at the Great White Con extracting the Michael, it doesn’t seem to fall under the Mail’s “Great Green Con” banner anymore. The general drift is the same though, apart from that lurid title of course!

I think current ‘renewable’ sources such as wind and ‘biomass’ are ruinously expensive and totally futile. They will never be able to achieve their stated goal of slowing the rate of warming and are not worth the billions being paid by UK consumers to subsidise them.

Skipping over all the (merely rhetorical?) self-pity, let’s move on to the climate science, such as it is!

Last Monday… a Met Office press release stated: ‘2014 one of the warmest years on record globally’.

The previous week, almost every broadcaster and newspaper in the world had screamed that 2014 was emphatically The Hottest Year Ever. They did so because NASA told them so. Its Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the custodian of one of the main American temperature datasets, had announced: ‘The year 2014 ranks as Earth’s warmest since 1880.’ If you’d bothered to click on the sixth of a series of internet links listed at the end of the press release, you could have found deep within it the startling fact that GISS was only ’38 per confident’ that 2014 really did set a record.

In other words, it was 62 per cent confident that it wasn’t. Another detail was that the ‘record’ was set by just two hundredths of a degree. The margin of error was five times bigger. These boring details were ignored. The ‘2014 was a record’ claim went to the very top. President Obama cited it in his State of the Union address. Like the news outlets, it’s unlikely he will issue a correction or clarification any time soon.

Al Gore repeatedly suggested that the Arctic would likely be ice-free in summer by 2014. In fact Arctic ice has recovered in the past two years, and while the long term trend is down, it looks likely to last several more decades.

Unfortunately that is misleading and/or inaccurate, apart from the bit about the long term trend in Arctic sea ice. Hence I’ve just popped yet another Dear John (and Poppy) virtual letter to Mr. Rose’s managing editor (+PA) at the Mail on Sunday, and I’ll have yet another long chat with IPSO tomorrow:

Us:

Dear John/Poppy,

Would you believe that David Rose is at it again? Not only is he “interviewing” himself in your esteemed organ today, he is misrepresenting the underlying science yet again.

I really must insist that whoever owns the desk on which the buck currently stops for the following article starts communicating with me yesterday if not sooner:

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2934540/What-happens-dare-doubt-Green-prophets-doom.html

Best wishes,

Jim Hunt
 

Them:

I am away from the office until Tuesday, February 10. I will be checking emails occasionally but if your message is urgent, please contact my assistant Poppy Swann.

Ultimately followed by:

Dear Jim

If you have a complaint about last Sunday’s article, you should set out exactly what it is. If you disagree with any opinions expressed you are welcome to write a letter that we will consider for publication.

You mention that you have sent us a number of inquiries recently. The only other, to my knowledge is that you wanted to know the source of some data that David Rose mentioned in an article some months ago. David Rose told me it came from the official website. Perhaps my colleague Poppy Hall can find it for you since David is probably unwilling to help after your insult.

Best regards

John

 

Us:

Dear Poppy (and John)

Please would you ask David to let me know where exactly, and on which “official website”, he obtained the DMI extent numbers he quoted in his article last Summer?

FYI John, at Poppy’s suggestion I have also emailed the editorial team @MailOnline. They have yet to even acknowledge receipt of my email of January 26th.

Best wishes,

Jim Hunt

 

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

Implausible Deniability of 2014 Arctic Sea Ice Predictions

Extent, , , , , , , ,

Further to the cessation of the brief hiatus in my continuing discussions with “Steve Goddard” about “global warming”, the debate has turned to predictions concerning Arctic sea ice metrics during the 2014 melting season.

Firstly here’s a few charts of assorted Arctic sea ice metrics, hot off the virtual presses:

CT-Area-2015-01-18
Chart from Cryosphere Today – http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosphere/arctic.sea.ice.interactive.html
IJIS-Extent-2015-01-18
Chart from IJIS – http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/en/home/seaice_extent.htm
DMI-New-2015-01-19
Chart from DMI – http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/icecover.uk.php
DMI-Old-2015-01-19
Chart from DMI – http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/old_icecover.uk.php

Here’s a table of the minimum value of some of those metrics for a selection of years:

Metric 2006 2013 2014
NSIDC daily 15% extent 5.74877 5.077090 4.98339
CT area 4.02978 3.55440 3.48317
IJIS extent 5.62505 4.80929 4.88412

 

Now here’s one of Steve/Tony’s predictions, in this case from August 1st 2014:

The minimum this summer will likely be close to the 2006 minimum, which was the highest minimum of the past decade.

And finally here’s the “discussion” (such as it is) over at the “Real Science” blog:
 

Us:

That’s not really how things turned out, is it?

 

Them:

That is exactly how it turned out.

Do you believe it was ice-free as Nobel Prize winner Al Gore predicted?

 

Us:

Perhaps this chart is clearer?

NSIDC-Extent-2015-01-18
Chart from NSIDC – http://nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews/charctic-interactive-sea-ice-graph/

How do you define “exactly”, “likely” and “close”?

Regarding my views on Al Gore’s so called predictions, see:

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2014/09/david-roses-apocalyptic-vision-of-al-gores-nobel-lecture/

In brief “Al Gore never ‘predicted’ that the Arctic would be ice-free by now!”

 

Them:

Well, he didn’t say ’22 years from now’, did he? No, he emphasized the most alarmist position he could find.

You can weasel out of this by stating that Gore did not make the prediction ,but he sure as Hell quoted and emphasized it, over any and all other predictions. And in front of the Nobel committee and entire world at that!

So have you confronted Gore over the failed prediction he parroted in Oslo? When you do, you will have a modicum of credibility. Get busy.

 

Us:

At the risk of repeating myself, “for the benefit of those who seem unable to understand either English or Mathematics a ‘projection’ is not the same thing as a ‘prediction’”

Getting back to Tony’s predictions, and using the NSIDC daily extent numbers for the moment, would you say that 4.98339 is “exactly” 5.74877? How about “close”?

 

Them:

Actually, no, your chart is less clear. Steve’s has all the years and it is clear his prediction is correct. Yours does not. Nor does yours have a legible legend. Another snow white lie.

 

Us:

Have you by any chance tried clicking on my chart? Does that help at all?

At the risk of repeating myself, would you say that 4.98339 is “exactly” 5.74877? How about “close”?

 

Them:

What bearing does 2013’s minimum have on goddard’s prediction for 2014? Are you a half-wit in addition to being a mentally ill stalker & transvestite?

 

Us:

What bearing does 2014’s maximum have on 2014’s minimum?

Are you blind?

 

Them:

You seem to think that some random number you came up with has some bearing on the subject at hand. Hint: it’s why we think you’re mentally ill.

 

Us:

Of course they’re not random numbers. To save you the bother of doing your own research please feel free to take a look at:

https://greatWhiteCon.info/2015/01/implausible-deniability-of-2014-arctic-sea-ice-predictions/#Table

 

Them:

Stark, it’s not about random numbers, it’s about random harassment. This clown takes no issue with ridiculous ‘projections’ delivered by alarmist zealots on a world stage, instead he haunts this site moaning about near misses.

But you are right about the mentally ill bit.

 

Us:

The conversation about the non-random Arctic numbers has at last taken a statistical turn over at:

https://stevengoddard.wordpress.com/2015/01/20/arctic-sea-ice-extent-continues-near-a-decadal-high/#comment-483567

I note that you are still dodging the question there too.

 

Them:

We’ll keep you posted!

David Rose’s Apocalyptic Vision of Al Gore’s Nobel Lecture

Satire, , , ,

According to David Rose’s headline in his article about Arctic sea ice in yesterday’s Mail on Sunday:

Stunning satellite images show summer ice cap is thicker and covers 1.7 million square kilometres MORE than 2 years ago…despite Al Gore’s prediction it would be ICE-FREE by now

Seven years after former US Vice-President Al Gore’s warning, Arctic ice cap has expanded for second year in row.

In the first paragraph of his article Mr. Rose continued:

The speech by former US Vice-President Al Gore was apocalyptic. ‘The North Polar ice cap is falling off a cliff,’ he said. ‘It could be completely gone in summer in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.’

Those comments came in 2007 as Mr Gore accepted the Nobel Peace Prize for his campaigning on climate change.

But seven years after his warning, The Mail on Sunday can reveal that, far from vanishing, the Arctic ice cap has expanded for the second year in succession – with a surge, depending on how you measure it, of between 43 and 63 per cent since 2012.

Would it surprise you to learn that when it comes to reporting Nobel Prize acceptance speeches Mr. Rose has as much difficulty separating fact from fiction as he does when reporting on the state of the sea ice in the Arctic? What do you suppose Mr. Gore actually said in his Nobel lecture in Oslo in December 2007? It’s not hard to find out. Here’s a picture of the former US Vice-President at the time:

Al Gore delivering his Nobel Lecture in the Oslo City Hall, 10 December 2007.
Copyright © The Norwegian Nobel Institute 2007 – Photo: Ken Opprann

and here’s a video of the speech he gave:

Skip to 4:30 minutes into the video and you will discover that what Al actually said was:

Last September 21st, as the Northern Hemisphere tilted away from the sun, scientists reported with unprecedented alarm that the North Polar ice cap is, in their words, “falling off a cliff.” One study estimated that it could be completely gone during summer in less than 22 years. Another new study, to be presented by U.S. Navy researchers later this week, warns it could happen in as little as seven years. Seven years from now.

For those who, like David Rose, apparently have difficulty in understanding English I suppose I now need to point out that the “falling off a cliff” phrase should be attributed to some unnamed scientists, not to Al Gore. You will no doubt have noted that Mr. Gore didn’t actually say the words put into his mouth by Mr. Rose, and that the sentiment that “it could happen in as little as seven years” is not in fact “Al Gore’s prediction” at all, and should instead be attributed to some unnamed “U.S. Navy researchers”.

For the hard of hearing amongst you:

Al Gore never “predicted” that the Arctic would be ICE-FREE by now!

Would it surprise you to discover that David Rose has misrepresented the “new study” that Al Gore referred to in 2007 as well, by some strange coincidence at around this time last year? I refer you to our article on that topic from September 15th 2013, and reiterate for the benefit of those who seem unable to understand either English or Mathematics that a “projection” is not the same thing as a “prediction”, and that Professor Wieslaw Maslowski’s statement that “if this trend persists the Arctic Ocean will become ice-free by around 2013” is not at all the same thing as David Rose’s (mis)interpretation that “The Arctic will be ice-free in summer by 2013”.

The obvious conclusion, or so it seems to me at least, is that Mr. Rose should stop pretending to be an investigative reporter and concentrate in future on his evident talent as a writer of speculative fiction.

[P.S. September 2nd 2014]

For some strange reason this post seems to have attracted a lot of interest over on Twitter. Here are the edited highlights!

Us:

 

 

Them:

 

 

 

Us:

 

 

 

We’ll keep you posted!

“Real Science” Censorship – Episode 2

Censorship, , , ,

After having a brush with the “Real Science” censor last month I’ve really gone and done it now. Steven Goddard’s blog has been badmouthing Al Gore recently. I’m afraid I couldn’t let that slight on Al’s predictive abilities go unchallenged. Steve evidently didn’t care for my suggestion that he “is fond of poetic license”, so my alter ego is “now spam” there too:

I’ve cut out much of the gratuitous abuse in the ensuing conversation, but you can peruse an archived version if you so desire. Note amongst other things that Al Gore never mentioned “16 foot thick ice in the Beaufort Sea”. Here are the expurgated highlights:

Them:

Nobel Peace Prize Laureate Al Gore says that the 16 foot thick ice in the Beaufort Sea will all melt in the next few weeks.

http://www.examiner.com/article/gore-arctic-ocean-ice-free-as-early-as-2014

Us:

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said in 2009.

There’s still plenty of time left for some of the models to be proved 75% correct!

 

Them:

“Some models suggest.” I love that – so very scientific. Some do, others don’t.

 

Us:

I realise Steve is fond of poetic license, but my point is that in the article Steve references Al Gore did not “predict an ice free Arctic in 2014″. He didn’t even “predict an ice free Arctic by 2016 at the latest”

 

Them:

I have warned you numerous times about lying about me. This is your last warning
http://www.examiner.com/article/gore-arctic-ocean-ice-free-as-early-as-2014

 

Us:

Steve – My Gore quote from April 15, 2014 at 10:41 am is cut/pasted from the article you just linked to. Here’s another quote from the same article, presumably a journalist’s interpretation of Gore’s words:
“Today at the U.N. climate conference in Copenhagen, Al Gore said there is new computer modeling that suggests the Arctic Ocean may be nearly ice-free in the summertime as early as 2014.”

 

Them:

“Some of the models suggest that there is a 75 percent chance that the entire north polar ice cap during some of the summer months will be completely ice-free within the next five to seven years,” Gore said.
Attack Gore for being an idiot. Not me for reporting on it.

 

Us:

Unpublished comment on Steven Goddard's "Real Science" blog from Wednesday April 16th at 12:55 UTC
Unpublished comment on the “Real Science” blog from Wednesday April 16th at 12:55 UTC

 

Them:

They have so far neglected to publish the above comment.

 

Us:

We’ll keep you posted!

A Conversation With David Rose

Satire, , , , , , ,

Perhaps “conversation” is somewhat too strong a word? We have somehow managed to engage the Mail on Sunday’s top investigative journalist (AKA David Rose) in a debate about sea ice on Twitter. For some strange reason he tried to change the topic from the Arctic to the Antarctic!

Us:

Them:

 

Us:

Meanwhile we gatecrashed another debate that David Rose was gatecrashing, about a topic we have some experience with.

Them:

Us:


We’ll keep you posted!