Monthly Archives: March 2017

Shock News! Finally, the GWPF Corrects a Mistake!!

David Whitehouse has just published an article on the Global Warming Policy Forum web site entitled “How The Recent El Nino Saved Climate Models“.

The article itself is of course straight off the GWPF’s porky pie production line, but in the small print at the bottom there is this “Shock News!”:

Finally, we must correct a mistake. In February a scientist involved in the production of the HadCRUT4 global surface temperature data set told us what January’s figure was before its official publication. It turns out they were wrong, and we have corrected the graphs accordingly. Here is HadCRUT4, with its pause and recent El Nino peak.

GWPF-latestHadcrut4-20170313

When the HadCRUT4 data for 2016 was complete the MET Office estimated that 0.2°C was due to the El Nino. So here is that difference.

GWPF-HadcrutMinusElNino-20170313

A scientist involved in the production of the HadCRUT4 global surface temperature data set told us that once again David Whitehouse is mistaken:

Can we now expect David Rose to issue an even more abject apology in next weekend’s Mail on Sunday?

Facts About the Arctic in March 2017

The February 2017 PIOMAS Arctic sea ice volume numbers are out. It’s no longer surprising to report that they are the lowest ever for the month of February in records going back to 1979:

PIOMAS-2017-02

Here’s the PIOMAS gridded thickness map for February 28th:

PIOMAS-thkness-20170228

whilst here’s the latest CryoSat-2 thickness map:

Cryosat_28_20170228

and here’s the latest SMOS thickness map from the University of Bremen:

SMOS-20170303

Lars Kaleschke suggests via Twitter this revealing SMOS thickness animation:

There does seem to be a small patch of slightly thicker ice in the East Siberian Sea off Chaunskaya Bay, but there’s still a much larger area of sub 0.5 meter thick ice in the Laptev and Kara Seas.

The Danish Meteorological Institute’s temperatures for the “Arctic area north of the 80th northern parallel” graph shows somewhat more “normal” readings in February 2017, but still without falling below the ERA40 climatology this year or in 2016:

DMI-meanT_20170303

The graph of cumulative Freezing Degree Days (FDD for short) is still far below all previous years in DMI’s records going back to 1958:

DMI-FDD-20170303

Finally, for the moment at least, here’s the high resolution AMSR2 Arctic sea ice area and extent:

UH-Arctic-Area-2017-03-03

UH-Arctic-Extent-2017-03-03

I’m going to have to eat some humble pie, or crow pie as I gather it’s usually referred to across the Atlantic, following my tentative “2017 maximum prediction” a couple of weeks ago. Both area and extent posted new highs for the year yesterday, with area creeping above 13 million square kilometers for the first time this year.

 

[Edit – March 7th]

Commenter Michael Olsen suggests that “thicker ice being pushed into the Alaskan and Russian parts of the Arctic Ocean”. Here’s some evidence:

The United States’ National Weather Service current sea ice stage of development map for Alaskan waters:

NWS-Alaska-SoD-20170307

This week’s Canadian Ice Service sea ice stage of development map is expected later today, so for now here’s last week’s:

CIS-West-SoD-20170227

and here’s the latest version:

CIS-West-SoD-20170306

Similarly this week’s Russian Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute ice chart is expected soon has been published:

AARI-20170307-crop

 

[Edit – March 11th]

Especially for Michael, a visual image of all the “thicker ice [that’s been] pushed into the Russian parts of the Arctic Ocean” courtesy of the nice folks at NASA:

NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Chukchi Sea on March 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite
NASA Worldview “true-color” image of the Chukchi Sea on March 10th 2017, derived from the MODIS sensor on the Aqua satellite

 

[Edit – March 12th]

Yet another strong Arctic cyclone has been battering the sea ice in the Arctic Basin. According to Environment Canada this one bottomed out at 971 hPa at 06:00 UTC today.

Synopsis-20170312-06Z