Expensive ENSO Expertise

Regular readers will be aware that in a recent article in the Mail on Sunday David Rose quoted Professor Judith Curry as stating that:

The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino

The article in question also included this graph:

MoS2 Template Master

It looks as though David’s left hand doesn’t know what his right hand is doing. Was the 2015 El Niño “Super” or “Very strong”? And how about the 1997/98 El Niño. Was that one really merely “Strong”?

We sought the professional opinion of an eminent expert in such matters, according to David Rose at least – Professor Judith Curry. Here’s how we got on, firstly at Prof. Curry’s “Climate Etc.” blog:


Since you mention the subject, I was wondering if Dr. Curry could take a look at the “the authoritative Met Office ‘HADCRUT4’ surface record” mentioned in David Rose’s latest Mail article and explain how it justifies her “The record warm years of 2015 and 2016 were primarily caused by the super El Nino” remark quoted in his previous one:

Post-Truth Global and Arctic Temperatures



“No answer!” was the stern reply! We tried again on a different thread at Prof. Judy’s place.



Bill the Frog has asked me to check the objective criteria Prof. Curry uses for differentiating between “weak”, “strong”, “very strong” and “super” El Niños. Likewise for La Niñas.

Can you assist by any chance Ristvan? Can Judith?



JH, Sure could. But first prove you are just not more loser snark.
Enso is variously but in eqch case precisely defined. I defer to Bob Tisdale comcerning details. And you?



I defer to the BoM in the first instance. How about Judith?


A different Them:

Jim Hunt

I expect the answers you are looking for are in this article by Judith back in 2014




Thanks Tony, but that’s not Judith’s expert opinion on “objective criteria” either.

She did respond to my similar request on Twitter, but I’m still none the wiser I’m afraid:



“No answer!” was the stern reply!

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