The 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent in the Cryodenialosphere

Earlier today the National Snow and Ice Data Center announced that:

On September 11, Arctic sea ice likely reached its annual minimum extent of 4.28 million square kilometers (1.65 million square miles). The 2024 minimum is the seventh lowest in the nearly 46-year satellite record. The last 18 years, from 2007 to 2024, are the lowest 18 sea ice extents in the satellite record…

Note that this is a preliminary announcement. Changing winds or late-season melt could still reduce the Arctic ice extent, as happened in 2005 and 2010. NSIDC scientists will release a full analysis of the Arctic melt season, and discuss the Antarctic winter sea ice growth, in early October.

Consequently several of the usual cryodenialospheric suspects have been frantically spinning their webs of deceit around the announcement.

First up was Javier Vinós, who beat the NSIDC’s starting gun by firing a broadside on X (formerly Twitter) on Sunday. If you’re unfamiliar with name, Javier frequently pontificates about Arctic sea ice, amongst other things, on Judith Curry’s “Climate Etc.” blog. He confidently announced that:

Arctic sea ice reaches its annual minimum with an extent greater than in 2007, 2012, 2016, 2019, 2020 and 2023.

The two warmest years in a row at > +1.5°C have ZERO IMPACT on the 17-year resilience of Arctic sea ice.

Needless to say, “Snow White” felt compelled to quibble:

Following which Javier valiantly decided to dig himself into an ever deeper hole, after proudly supporting his alleged “case” by presenting me with a learned journal article I’m already writing about in a draft blog post of my own:

Following the NSIDC’s announcement today, Anthony Watts hastily copied an evidently even more hastily produced article by Paul Homewood, which opened with this graphic graphic dated September 7th:

Not a lot of people know that Snow White and I are currently no longer persona non grata at both NALOPKT and WUWT:

I cannot help but wonder how long that happy state of affairs will last?

[Update – September 25th]

“Not long at NALOPKT” is the answer! Paul got bored with humouring me, and this comment of mine is now on his cutting room floor. As are several others:

My invisible comment was in reply to Paul’s standard “skeptical” sign off:

Simply word salad.

DMI have tampered with their data so as to make historical ice thickness thicker in comparison with the last few years. They did this because their previous data showed that sea ice volume had not been reducing, which was highly inconvenient.

Their ice volume figures therefore can no longer be trusted.

Thanks for reminding me about this fraud, Jim. I will repost my original article tomorrow!

I’m sorry to see you get so few readers these days.

Meanwhile Anthony Watts has yet to curtail my free(ish) speech, but his flock of faithful followers are doing their utmost to sink their teeth into me:

27 downvotes and counting!

[Update – September 26th]

Paul Homewood has poison penned another Arctic article. This one is entitled “Arctic Sea Ice Volume”. Paul assures his flock of faithful followers that:

There has been a suggestion that although Arctic sea ice extent has remained stable since 2007, it is getting thinner.

As the ice volume charts make clear, this is nonsense. Volume, and therefore thickness, have remained as stable as extent.

NALOPKT my pithy comment in response will never see the light of day:

Watch this space!

7 thoughts on “The 2024 Arctic Sea Ice Minimum Extent in the Cryodenialosphere

    1. Jim<

      Paul Homewood is a piece of work. Every, and I mean every reflexive attack he makes about the UKMO is wrong, and as such easy to debunk, the faithful being so skeptical as to take it as gosple. I don't bother to rebutt on NALOPKT but I do on WUWT (despite the attack-dogs from the choir). I have meteorological background. 32 years working for the MetO the last 21 as an on-the-bench forecaster.

      1. Hi Tony,

        Thanks for dropping by. You and I have previously crossed paths, back in the mists of time. At Judy’s “Climate Etc.” if my ageing memory recalls correctly.

        Paul has the DMI in his sights this time, rather than the UKMO. I was persona non grata at NALOPKT for a long time, and now I am once again! See above.

        The WUWT attack dogs are after me, but have yet to inflict a flesh wound. And certainly not a fatal mauling!

  1. The August 2024 median forecasted value for pan-Arctic September sea-ice extent is 4.27 million square kilometers.

    Couldn’t get much closer than this!

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